科尔尼给浙江电信做的市场预测报告（英文版）

1、1 - 0 strictly confidential 1. market forecast 2. key target customers 3. product strategy 4. strategic partnerships 5. channel strategy 6. brand strategy 7. organization table of contents 1 - 1 strictly confidential in order to forecast ckads addressable market, we developed a 80-page demand foreca

2、sting model key assumptions mobile penetration of zhejiang will increase at a decelerating rate to approximately 67% in 2007 key sms usage per user will increase at a decelerating rate 2.5g/3g based wireless data penetration will resemble the internet penetration over number of years introduced with

3、 certain upward adjustment key sources of data source: a.t. kearney analysis extract: zhejiang telecom market model zmcc mii market survey idc zhejiang statistics bureau analyst reports, merill lynch, csfb oecd data estimate by city estimate by product 2.5g/3g market and zmcc revenue individual appl

4、ications enterprise applications product list usage estimate professional applications detailed product list sms market and zmcc revenue total mobile users arpu estimate total mobile users sms usage average price of sms 2.5g/3g penetration among mobile users hangzhou ningbo penetration estimate pric

5、e level estimate fixed line/ wireless data communication wireless data communication penetration of 2g and 2.5g/3g mobile services attractiveness assessment of each product total market voice cross checking 1 - 2 strictly confidential we consider three fundamental scenarios to account for major sour

6、ces of uncertainties key sources of uncertainty potential impact worse case scenariobase case scenariobest case scenario mpp to cpphigh cpp starting 1/2004 arpu to drop a net of 22% in 2004 mobile penetration to increase by additional 2% per year from 2004 market share of pas to drop by 20% zmccs sh

7、are to increase by 5% cpp starting 1/2005 arpu to drop a net of 22% in 2005 mobile penetration to increase by additional 2% per year from 2005 market share of pas in drop 20% of zmccs share to increase by 5% mpp continues average tariff decrease high voice price to drop 15% per year elasticity of mo

8、u is estimated to be 0.4 sms price to drop 50% upon introduction of 3g in 2006 voice price to drop by 10% per year elasticity of mou is estimated to be 0.4 sms price to drop 50% upon introduction of 3g in 2005 voice price to drop 5% per year elasticity of mou is estimated to be 0.4) sms price to dro

9、p 50% upon introduction of 3g in 2005 timing of 3g rollout medium/ low 1/2006 (3g related data revenues to be realized from 2006) 1/2005 (3g related data revenue to be realized from 2005) 1/2005 (3g related data revenue to be realized from 2005) number of 3g players medium 5 (cmcc, unicom, ct, cnc +

10、 1) starting 2005, new customer acquisition drop by 5%, current customer base to lose by 5%, + additional 5% drop voice price 4 (cmcc, unicom, ct, cnc) starting 2005, share of new customer drop by 5%, old customer base to lose by 5% per year) 4 (cmcc, unicom, ct, cnc) starting 2005, share of new cus

11、tomer drop by 5%, old customer base to lose by 5% per year) mobile number portability medium effective 1/2006 current customer base to decrease by additional 5% per year none none note: other uncertainties such as the market entry of a new, 2g foreign competitor and the adoption of new regulation im

12、posing universal service obligation have been considered but assessed very unlikely to happen source: oecd research; merill lynch report; zmcc; a.t. kearney analysis; 1 - 3 strictly confidential 19.4 12.9 14.3 10.6 10.4 18.8 13.2 16.1 12.3 10.7 23.2 13.0 11.0 15.8 20032004200520062007 11.4 depending

13、 on scenarios, ckads addressable market in wireless and fixed wireless solution will reach from rmb 14.3 to 23.2 billion by 2007 individual products group customers products enterprise solutions wirelessfixed-wireless source: zmcc, a.t. kearney analysis addressable market size in rmb billion best ca

14、se base case worse case 1 - 4 strictly confidential 0.3 10.7 0.310.4 10.7 21.7 ckad will directly target from 49% to 59%of the total wireless and fixed-wireless markets in zhejiang base case scenario year 2003 total wireless and fixed wireless markets individual wireless individual fixed/ wireless w

15、ireless and fixed/ wireless addressable by ckad year 2007 1.9 12.3 0.8 16.9 18.8 31.9 source: zmcc; fams, a.t. kearney analysis (rmb billion) 49% of total 59% of total wireless fixed wireless total wireless and fixed wireless markets individual wireless individual fixed/ wireless wireless and fixed/

16、 wireless addressable by ckad wireless fixed wireless 1 - 5 strictly confidential based on customer location, hangzhou, wenzhou, and ningbo are the cities with largest wireless and fixed/wireless markets source: zhejiang statistic bureau; a.t. kearney analysis ckad addressable market-revenue (bn rmb

17、) 0.8 1.5 20032007 1.2 2.2 20032007 0.2 0.4 20032007 1.9 3.2 20032007 1.4 2.4 20032007 1.0 1.8 20032007 0.6 1.0 20032007 2.5 4.2 20032007 0.2 0.3 20032007 0.8 1.5 20032007 0.1 0.3 20032007 base case scenario 1 - 6 strictly confidential 3.4 2.3 2007 2003 2.5 5.1 ckads addressable market in wireless a

18、nd fixed-wireless will evolve over time towards larger companies type a company type b company type c company source: a.t. kearney analysis; fams research 4.6 2.7 2007 2003 3.0 6.7 4.8 4.8 2007 2003 5.2 7.0 voicedata base case scenario revenue in rmb (billion) 1 - 7 strictly confidential manufacturi

19、ng, construction, transportation, banks and education are the largest sector for wireless and fixed-wireless solutions manufacturing construction transportation education bank/insurance government social services retail trade others addressable market size by industry (rmb billion) source: 14,000 co

20、mpany database, market survey, a.t. kearney analysis year 2003year 2007 manufacturing construction transportation education banks government social services retail trade others 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 5.7 base case scenario 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.9 10.0 1 - 8 strictly confidential cka

21、ds addressable fixed line market will grow from rmb 2.3 bn in 2003 to 3.8 bn in 2007 half of demand coming from hangzhou, ningbo and wenzhou zhejiang ckad addressable fixed line market forecast (rmb, bn) 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.8 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.9 200220032004200520062007 not including fixed loc

22、al calls market including fixed local calls market breakdown of addressable fixed line market (year 2003) ningbo 17% wenzhou 13% shaoxing 11% taizhou 10% jiaxing 8% hangzhou 22% huzhou 5% jinhua 8% zhoushan 2% quzhou 2% lishui 2% revenue source: goldman sachs, a.t. kearney analysis 1 - 9 strictly co

23、nfidential specific revenue targets for ckad have been developed at city level tasks outcome get top 14,000 zhejiang company list get number of companies and employees by city from the database estimate the number of c companies and their employees not included in the database according to zhejiang

24、statistics get mobile penetration rate by industry from market survey database of all a and b companies and some c companies estimation of trend of number of a, b, c companies and respective employees at city level develop a market forecast model for zhejiang wireless market plug in the employee num

25、ber and penetration in the model and estimate the market size of ckad addressable market at city level total addressable market forecast at city level set revenue target from traditional businesses at city level set targeted % of revenue from new data business calculate total revenue target at city

26、level validate the targets with historical data and local experiences revenue target of traditional businesses revenue target of new data businesses total revenue target at city level research for the number of a, b, c companies and employees step 1 estimate size of ckad addressable market size at c

27、ity level step 2 set targeted market share at city level step 3 set revenue targets at city level step 4 analyze current zmcc and ckad share of subscribers and share of enterprise customers set targeted share of enterprises set targeted share of employee subscribers within each company # of a, b, c

28、enterprises target at city level # of subscribers target at city level 1 - 10 strictly confidential number of a, b, c companies and their employees citya companiesb companiesc companiestotal company number employee number company number employee number company number employee number company number e

29、mployee number hangzhou355 569,051 1,795 530,121 14,0001,000,000 16,150 2,099,172 ningbo209 333,230 1,504 426,406 11,000800,000 12,713 1,559,636 wenzhou130 160,372 1,055 288,824 11,000800,000 12,185 1,249,196 shaoxing205 398,752 972 298,704 7,000500,000 8,177 1,197,456 jiaxing110 135,028 870 261,194

30、 6,500450,000 7,480 846,222 zhoushan34 60,794 174 45,518 1,500100,000 1,708 206,312 taizhou91 164,141 885 240,766 6,500450,000 7,476 854,907 huzhou84 119,992 497 148,116 4,000300,000 4,581 568,108 jinhua106 193,700 644 188,932 5,500400,000 6,250 782,632 quzhou33 38,361 192 56,024 1,500100,000 1,725

31、194,385 lishui18 16,001 176 42,876 1,500100,000 1,694 158,877 total1,3752,189,4228,7642,527,48170,0005,000,00080,139 9,716,903 company and employee number step 1step 2step 3step 4 1 - 11 strictly confidential ckads potential wireless and fixed/wireless markets 来源: 浙江省统计局; 科尔尼分析 集团大客户部潜在市场集团大客户部潜在市场

32、- 收入（单位：十亿元）收入（单位：十亿元） 一般情况一般情况 0.6 1.0 20032007 2.5 4.2 20032007 0.8 1.5 20032007 1.2 2.2 20032007 0.2 0.4 20032007 1.9 3.2 20032007 1.4 2.4 20032007 1.0 1.8 20032007 0.8 1.5 20032007 0.1 0.3 20032007 0.2 0.3 20032007 step 1step 2step 3step 4 1 - 12 strictly confidential ckads potential fixed line

33、market zhejiang ckad addressable fixed line market forecast (rmb, bn) not including fixed local calls market including fixed local calls market breakdown of addressable fixed line market (year 2003) ningbo 17% wenzhou 13% shaoxing 11% taizhou 10% jiaxing 8% hangzhou 22% huzhou 5% jinhua 8% zhoushan

34、2% quzhou 2% lishui 2% revenue source: goldman sachs, a.t. kearney analysis 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.8 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.9 200220032004200520062007 step 1step 2step 3step 4 1 - 13 strictly confidential ckad target number of users ckad target number of users by city city20032004200520062007 hangzhou922,2801,077,8421,244,0621,380,1611,504,536 ningbo672,967783,556901,714997,9411,085,681 wenzhou510,788583,351660,728721,521776,017 shaoxing493,972591,93