全球行业IT投资分析报告

1、gartner integrated it spending perspectives building your budget for 2010 barbara gomolski 85% of global 500 2 million+ it end-user searches 60+ conferences 3,700 cios 10,000 media inquiries 650 analysts across 80 countries 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a

2、registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 gartner integrated it spending perspectives building your budget for 2010 barbara gomolski budgets are flat” levels? “we extended the useful life of hardware; refresh is planned in fy 2011” it leaders must look externally for plan

3、ning assumptions 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 7 key issues what are the key strategic it industry spending trends, assumptions and rates of change? what key it financial metrics are i

4、mportant for alignment with enterprise goals for it efficiency and effectiveness? how should enterprise leaders use it market and enterprise spending metrics to ensure more alignment with their annual strategic and budget planning process? 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserve

5、d. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 initiate cancel, 8 2010 it planning & budget process: often focused only on it supply it leaders have a slanted view it supply it spend % revenue it budget process optimize, projects change mix it demand it industr

6、y spending it services % opex it spend per employee determine cutoff levels software telecommunications hardware it fte % enterprise fte it spending by resource hardware rank merged lists internal services business value metrics supply software personnel allocate outlay rank at bu level demand suppo

7、rt outsourcing it productivity metrics cost per server cost per programmer cost per desktop cost per help desk call value, cost, risk define micro/macro-economic indicators leading coincident lagging 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of

8、gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 9 it demand: it spending forecasts by market segment, industry & region 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 10 worldwide it spending by segment:

9、 business & enterprise consumption of it year ($ usd, billions) it market2007200820092010201120122013 5-yr cagr internal services591618576574583593603-0.5% it services7177747467798158599073.2% telecomm6016265835996236506791.6% hardware267266215214221226229-3.0% software1521681641701801932104.6% gran

10、d total 2,328 growth rate 2,451 5.3% 2,283 -6.8% 2,335 2.3% 2,422 3.7% 2,522 4.1% 2,628 4.2% 1.4% return to growth may not mean return to the market peaks of 2008/2007 source: gartner dataquest 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartne

11、r, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 11 2010 it spending forecast and budget assumptions more indistinguishable than ever industry assumptionspossible budget assumptions hardware asset lifecycle extension alternative technologies better deals on cheap hardware less hardware, more external svcs. s

12、erver virtualization strategic vendor higher watch for over-investment introduce non-standard software in software maintenance fees alternatives: saas, open non-strategic areas nontraditional means no/low capex source, non-strategic more outsourcing, less postponed hw means less infra sw more shared

13、 less owned it services consulting/dev/integration industrialization/standards shared vendor to shared technology small safe deals with short term roi offshore strengthened delayed tech refreshing cheaper externally if industrialized increasingly mobile staff telecom less price control mobility svcs

14、. - favorable unified comm. more comm. equip. network svcs. constrained capex internal services less projects, less staff more contract labor some decentralization capped internal ftes levels more external than re-insourced pmo skills compensate for declining traditional skills percentages 2009 gart

15、ner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 1.0% 12trademark of it market spending by region: 2010 growth vs. 5-year cagr 8.0% 7.0% 2010 growth latin america asia/pacific 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% middle east & africa

16、3.0% 2.0% w estern europenorth america eastern europe 0.0% -1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0% -1.0% -2.0% japan 2008-2013 cagr 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered-3.0% gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 13 growth rates in it spending market by

17、 industry: almost all are under 2008 growth rates indefinitely it spending rates of change (percentages and $ usd billions) ww it spending 2009 industry 200820092010201120122013 5-yr cagr 503 443 433 211 202 172 114 100 80 25 financial services public sector manufacturing retail communications servi

18、ces utilities transportation healthcare agriculture/mining/constr. 4.6 5.8 4.9 4.6 6.3 6.4 5.7 4.9 6.9 1.6 -8.3 -4.5 -7.9 -7.1 -6.1 -5.7 -6.4 -8.0 -6.2 -9.2 2.6 4.1 3.7 4.5 0.6 2.7 1.6 3.4 2.2 3.9 1.7 2.8 3.4 4.1 1.9 3.6 3.0 4.8 1.6 3.6 4.6 4.8 2.9 3.8 4.3 3.3 4.6 4.3 5.2 3.3 4.7 5.0 2.9 3.6 4.3 3.4

19、 4.6 4.3 5.7 3.0 1.4 2.6 0.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.0 1.1 2.4 0.3 2,283all industries5.3-6.82.3 1.4 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 source: gartner dataquest -0.5% 14 industry return to

20、growth: a view by 2010 growth rates and 5-year cagr 3.5% 3.0% 2008-2013 cagr public sector healthcare 2.5% 2.0%communications utilities 1.5% retail services financial services 1.0% transportation manufacturing 0.5% 0.0% agriculture, mining, and construction 2010 growth rate 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3

21、.0%3.5%4.0%4.5% 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 15 it supply: it spending metrics by industry it productivity metrics 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartn

22、er is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 gartner is a registered trademark of gartner,16 gartner it key it productivity & cost metrics: estimating future capacity and supply requirements serverprocessor unix server cost per wintel server cost per $69k $16k $23k $

23、8k mainframe utilization: mainframe cost per mips 63%installed $10k used $14k wan cost/device: $339help desk lan cost/port: $148 cost per contact: $23 internet access service cost/ 1st contact resolution: 65% gigabyte: $13 contacts/fte/month: 471 voice network spend/subscriber: $830 avg. customer sa

24、t: 4.1/5.0 complexity, geography, platforms, age of it and other factors will skew comparison. 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. _metrics database inc. or its affiliates. 11/11/2009 gartner is a registered trademark of gartner,17 gartner it key it spending & staffing met

25、rics: the final report for it budgeting and planning cross industry averages it spending % operational expenses it spending % of revenue it spending per employee it employees % of total employees 2008 5.9% 4.1% $13.1k 6.3% 2009 5.9% 4.2% $13.5k 6.1% run66%it capex29%apps dev.25% grow20%it opex71% ap

26、ps sup.23% transform14% data center 14% contractors23% hardware software 19% 19% desktop data net. voice net. 9% 6% 3% in-house77% personnel36% it mgt.8% outsourcing18%help desk8% 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. _metrics database inc. or its affiliates. 11/11/2009 othe

27、r8% fin. & admin. 4% 18 it spending as a percentage of revenue, 2009 it alignment is a process, not a number 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 19 it spending & budget split: the shift away

28、 from higher percentages of it capex continue it operational historical and predicted spending 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 64% 66% 69% 71%71% 76%76% 77% 20042005200620072008200920102011 predicted source: gartner it key metrics data 2009, gartner forecasts 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights

29、 reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 20 its contribution to business value: necessary requirements in budget & project planning regional run-, grow- and transform-the-business it spending, 2008 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rig

30、hts reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 21 it demand: micro and macro-economic indicators, business value metrics 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliat

31、es. _ 11/11/2009 22 it services portfolio and catalog: connect it supply to demand for information technology supplyit business valuedemand it cost / wintel wintel servers it spend % revenue it spend % opex it cost / auto- automobile forecast serverper fte hardware - software mobiletrends it cost /

32、unix unix servers it services it cost / bank banking forecast serverper fte managed desktop transaction trends it cost / hd call help desk calls per agent application hosting project management apps development it cost/ house constructed housing starts forecast it cost/desktops personnel outsourcing

33、 it costairline managed per ftes desktop support it spend per employee it staff % enterprise staff / airline passenger passenger forecast 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 23 the focus of

34、transparency: shifting from lagging to leading indicators value laggingleading financial metrics internal process based external economic - 12 months -6 months now6 months 12 months 18 months 24 months how are leading indicators being used by businesses? 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all

35、 rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 24or its affiliates. the gartner business value model: microeconomic and leading indicators of financial performance business aspect aggregatesprimes target marketmarket coveragemarket shareopportuni

36、ty/threat demand market responsiveness index product portfolio index sales opportunity index channel profitability index sales cycle index configure-ability index sales close index sales price managementsales effectiveness index cost of sales index forecast index customer index indexaccuracyretentio

37、n index supply product development effectiveness customer responsiveness new products index on-time delivery service performance supplier on-time feature function index order fill rate customer care performance supplier order time to market index material quality agreement effectiveness supplier mat

38、erial r&d success index service accuracy transformation ratio supplier service management support services supplier effectiveness operational efficiency human resources responsiveness information technology responsiveness delivery supplier service performance cash to cash cycle time recruitment effe

39、ctiveness index hr advisory index systems performance new projects index fill rate supplier care performance conversion cost benefits administration index hr total cost index it support performance it total cost index quality supplier agreement effectiveness asset utilization skills inventory index

40、partnership ratio accuracy supplier trans- formation ratio sigma value employee training index service level effectiveness finance & regulatory 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc.responsiveness _ compliance index accuracy

41、index advisory index cost of service index 11/11/2009 25 gartner is a the trademark gartner, inc. its julysource: registered macroeconomic business cycle indicators use for high level assumptions leading coincident avg weekly hrs mfg money supply m2 interest rate spread new orders - mfg payroll ftes

42、: non-ag personal income industrial production mfg & trade sales positive negative positive negative negative positive negative positive 70% positive 50% positive lagging avg prime rate cpi services credit/income flat negative negative 100% negative 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all righ

43、ts reserved. _ conference boardaffiliates. 2009 11/11/2009 inventory/sales rationegative 2009 andinc. and/or 8/4/9, 11/11/2009 indicators of economic return to growth key indicator 20082009 mens underwear (forecast)$4.9b$4.8b de beers diamonds (6 mo.)$6.9b$1.4b na auto production ytd june6.9m3.5m 20

44、10 total housing starts (nahb)900k561k frb capacity utilization78%68% not surprisingly: 2010 forecasts are better than 2009 2010 return to growth does not mean return to normal mens underwear: source: mintel international group, http:/ 8/4/9 national association of home builders, , 7/23/

45、9 j.d. powergartner, associatesaffiliates. all http:/ gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. 26 _ federal reserve bank, /releases/g17/current/table11.htm 27 it trends and assumptions: business value, key initiatives, cost focus continuation

46、2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 28 technology areas of focus for 2010 cloud cost erp/scm bi virtualization social 10/200812/20082/20094/20096/20098/200910/2009 source: gartner 2009 gartn

47、er, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 29 these changes will require the it industry to reframe value in business terms it-centricbusiness value-centric erp solution business process change network uptim

48、e point of sale availability app dev lifecycle product development lifecycle critical it infrastructure growth-enabling infrastructure crm customer acquisition and retention cutting it costs delivering business value scalability agility 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved.

49、gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 30 extensive and deep interactions with our client base provide a unique perspective on it 2,000 consulting engagements 65% of fortune 1000 80% of global 500 74 conferences 10,000 media inquiries 3,500 senior it execu

50、tives 240,000 client inquiries each year 60,000 clients 75 countries 650 analysts 17,000 benchmarks 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 cio,cfosurveys hrstaffingsurveys specifictechnologysur

51、veys itkeymetricsdata 31 integrated perspective on it spending daily interactions usersvendorschannelinvestors surveys and benchmarks forecast by region & country forecast by size of business forecast by vertical industry forecast by it segment gartner perspective: it spending cio it operations fina

52、ncehr 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its affiliates. _ 11/11/2009 32 your action plan monday morning - re-evaluate your it budget plans for 2010. make sure your investment priorities align with your organizations s

53、trategic objectives. the next 12 months - drive it investment decisions from the perspective of enterprise strategy, and ultimately, business value. - balance the need to maintain the discipline around cost management with the need to support the enterprises return to growth. on the radar screen - rethink your process to it investment planningmoving from a static budget to a “rolling forecast” that will be more adaptable throughout the year. 2009 gartner, inc. and/or its affiliates. all rights reserved. gartner is a registered trademark of gartner, inc. or its