战略咨询入门—市场容量估算-业务

1、估算Guesstimation,Jason Zhou,未经CareerVenture许可，任何个人或机构不得用于商业目的,Before classOur objective and methodology,2,Objective: Understand what Guesstimation is How to get the answer How to present the answer Be a master Our method: Conversation Question lead We do it together,IntroductionWhat is Guesstimation?

2、,3,Guesstimation is more than market sizing Guesstimation is to get a general quantitative idea of a target with common sense,Real work,4,Market sizing to drive business decisions,5_85,IntroductionHow to get the answer in real work?,Highest level: check the value-chainRaw material suppliers-Manufact

3、urers-Distributors/ Retailers -End Customers In real work without data Cold call or in-depth interviews Lit research,5,IntroductionWhat is the role of Guesstimation in case interview?,Back of the envelope question No data, no internet, no questions Will be given as: A single case or part of a case B

4、rain teaser questions,6,IntroductionWhy do Guesstimation in the case interview?,To test: Common sense Business sense Analytical capability Calculation Communication to describe and summarize Comfort in real work,7,How to get the answerThe methodology,Have a try ,8,How many passengers is Pudong airpo

5、rt handling each day?,How to get the answerThe methodology,Clarify the question Landing/departing Domestic/international Laying out the structure # of passengers=# of planes landing per day x # of passengers per plane Deep dive on each element # of planes landing per day = # of runways x # of planes

6、 landing on each runway per day # of planes landing on each runway per day = # of hours airport operates for landing per day / time taken for a plane to land Probe for info/hints or come up with assumptions using common sense zero defect calculation Sanity check Review assumptions for sensitivity ch

7、eck,9,How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?,How to get the answerTips,1. Ask for 30 seconds to 1 minute upfront to gather your thoughts 2. Round your answers to calculation-friendly numbers 3. When making assumptions, use calculation-friendly numbers/percentages (e.g. age groups 0

8、-20 etc.) 4. Clearly label units 5. Avoid numerical ranges as they complicate the solution 6. Use a “sniff test” or “sanity-check” the validity of each calculation 7. Its ok to communicate doubts and mistakes with the interviewer 8. Interpret interviewer body language 9. Communicate each step clearl

9、y and concisely, and your thinking process 10. Dont overcomplicate the solution simple is super 11. Try to offer multiple appraoches,10,How to get the answerCase in group,11,On average, how much does each cigarette smoked by a heavy smoker shorten his or her life expectancy?,How to get the answerCas

10、e in group,How many liters of house paint are sold in the UK annually?,12,How to get the answerCase in group,How many gas stations are there in Shanghai?,13,How to get the answerIs there any pattern in such questions?,14,Top down / bottom up Common segmentation dimensions Age, gender, income, season

11、, penetration, utilization You can always further breakdown by thinking about Process, value chain, highly correlated variables ,How to present the answerFace to face case,15,Estimate the daily revenue of a Starbucks in Xintiandi?,How to present the answerFace to face case,16,How many rounds of golf are played annually in the U.S.?,How to present the answerFace to face case,How many bottles of cok