暨南大学《项目管理》chapter7managingrisk

1、管理学院 School of Management,佟瑞 Edward Tong， MPM，MBA,2020/12/22,1,Edward TongCopyright reserved Jinan University,73,Where We Are Now,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,4,What is Risk,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,5,Definition Of Risk,Risk = f(Likelihood, Impact,Likelihood is the probabil

2、ity of occurrence Impact is the amount at stake,Event,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,6,Risk Defined,Risk is any potential threat or occurrence which may prevent you from achieving your defined business objectives. It may affect timescales, cost, quality, or benefits. All projects are expose

3、d to risk in some form, butthe extent of which will vary considerably,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,7,What is Risk Management,Generally accepted” definition. The process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risk events during the project SEI version.1 Continuous risk management is a

4、 software engineering practice with processes, methods and tools for managing project risks,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,8,The Million Dollar Question,Is risk a bad thing,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,9,Uncertainty = Risk or Opportunity,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,10

5、,What is an Uncertainty,It is the sum of unknowns for each project,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,11,Uncertainty, Opportunity, and Risk,Start Project,Completion Outcome(Product,Unknown (Uncertainty,Unfavorable (Risk,Favorable (Opportunity,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,12,The Real

6、World,Identify,Analyze,Plan,Track,Control,Communicate,PM 508 - Session One,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,13,The Real World,Communicate,Communicate,Communicate,Communicate,Risk management,Over and Over and Over Again . .,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,14,Continuous Risk Management

7、Process,Obtain Sponsorship,Establish Prob/Impact Definitions,Select Risks to Mitigate,Select Mitigation Methods,Create Tracking & Control Plan,Complete Cost/Benefit Analysis,Take Corrective Actions,Adjust Control Plan as Reqd,Close Risks,Risk Management,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,15,Exa

8、mple of Risk Categories,Plan,Design,Test,Implement,Total Risk,Based on Project Phases,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,16,Example of Risk Categories,People,Market,Technical,Financial,Total Risk,Tailored to Product Development Project,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,17,Impact Definitio

9、n Example,Hi Performance, Cost, &Schedule Impacted Medium Cost & Schedule Impacted Low 低Schedule Impacted,Risk Management,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,18,Probability DefinitionExample,Hi More than 70% likely Medium 30-70% likely Low Less than 30% likely,Risk Management,2020/12/22,Edward T

10、ong,Jinan University,19,Simple Risk Matrix,3,6,9,2,4,6,1,2,3,Low Med Hi,Probability,Impact,Hi Med Low,List of Risks(in Categories,Risk Management,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,20,3. Major Impact on project schedule or cost. Major impact on benefits. 2. Major impact on project schedule or c

11、ost. Minor impact on benefits 1. Minor impact on project schedule or cost. No impact on benefits,Severity of Impact,Unlikely 15,Fairly Likely,Very Likely,Almost Certain 85,Low,Low,HIGH,Medium,Medium,Medium,Medium,Medium,HIGH,Medium,Medium,HIGH,Likelihood of Event Happening,Source: Buttrick, R. (1997

12、). The Project Workout. Pitman, UK,More Complex Risk Matrix,Risk Management,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,21,Another ExampleRisk Matrix,Risk Management,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,22,Ways to Respond to a Given Risk,Accept Mitigate Avoid,PM 508 - Session Three,2020/12/22,Edward

13、Tong,Jinan University,23,PMP test b,Which technique is used most frequently in risk identification? A. Interviewing B.Brainstorming C.Simulation D. Decision-tree,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,24,PMP test c,Which of the following is NOT an example of external risks?- A. Inflation B.Strike C

14、.Poor staff assignment D.Change of government,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,25,Insurance (etc.,Risk Planning Response Development Tools,Transferring the risk . .,Examples . . .,Sharing the risk . .,2020/12/22,Edward Tong,Jinan University,26,A Quote . .,He that will not sail till all danger

15、s are over must neverput to sea,Thomas Fuller, 1608 - 1661 Chaplain in extraordinary to Charles II,727,Risk Management Process,Risk Uncertain or chance events that planning can not overcome or control. Risk Management A proactive attempt to recognize and manage internal events and external threats t

16、hat affect the likelihood of a projects success. What can go wrong (risk event). How to minimize the risk events impact (consequences). What can be done before an event occurs (anticipation). What to do when an event occurs (contingency plans,728,The Risk Event Graph,FIGURE 7.1,729,Risk Managements

17、Benefits,A proactive rather than reactive approach. Reduces surprises and negative consequences. Prepares the project manager to take advantage of appropriate risks. Provides better control over the future. Improves chances of reaching project performance objectives within budget and on time,730,The

18、 Risk Management Process,FIGURE 7.2,731,Managing Risk,Step 1: Risk Identification Generate a list of possible risks through brainstorming, problem identification and risk profiling. Macro risks first, then specific events Step 2: Risk Assessment Scenario analysis for event probability and impact Ris

19、k assessment matrix Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Probability analysis Decision trees, NPV, and PERT Semiquantitative scenario analysis,732,The Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS,FIGURE 7.3,733,Partial Risk Profile for Product Development Project,FIGURE 7.4,734,Defined Conditions for Impact Sc

20、ales of a Risk on Major Project Objectives (Examples for negative impacts only,FIGURE 7.5,735,Risk Assessment Form,FIGURE 7.6,Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)Impact Probability Detection = Risk Value,736,Risk Severity Matrix,FIGURE 7.7,Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)Impact Probabili

21、ty Detection = Risk Value,737,Managing Risk (contd,Step 3: Risk Response Development Mitigating Risk Reducing the likelihood an adverse event will occur. Reducing impact of adverse event. Avoiding Risk Changing the project plan to eliminate the risk or condition. Transferring Risk Paying a premium t

22、o pass the risk to another party. Requiring Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) provisions. Retaining Risk Making a conscious decision to accept the risk,738,Contingency Planning,Contingency Plan An alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event actually occurs. A plan of actions

23、 that will reduce or mitigate the negative impact (consequences) of a risk event. Risks of Not Having a Contingency Plan Having no plan may slow managerial response. Decisions made under pressure can be potentially dangerous and costly,739,Risk and Contingency Planning,Technical Risks Backup strateg

24、ies if chosen technology fails. Assessing whether technical uncertainties can be resolved. Schedule Risks Use of slack increases the risk of a late project finish. Imposed duration dates (absolute project finish date) Compression of project schedules due to a shortened project duration date,740,Risk

25、 Response Matrix,FIGURE 7.8,741,Risk and Contingency Planning (contd,Costs Risks Time/cost dependency links: costs increase when problems take longer to solve than expected. Deciding to use the schedule to solve cash flow problems should be avoided. Price protection risks (a rise in input costs) inc

26、rease if the duration of a project is increased. Funding Risks Changes in the supply of funds for the project can dramatically affect the likelihood of implementation or successful completion of a project,742,Opportunity Management Tactics,Exploit Seeking to eliminate the uncertainty associated with

27、 an opportunity to ensure that it definitely happens. Share Allocating some or all of the ownership of an opportunity to another party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project. Enhance Taking action to increase the probability and/or the positive impact of an opport

28、unity. Accept Being willing to take advantage of an opportunity if it occurs, but not taking action to pursue it,743,Contingency Funding and Time Buffers,Contingency Funds Funds to cover project risksidentified and unknown. Size of funds reflects overall risk of a project Budget reserves Are linked

29、to the identified risks of specific work packages. Management reserves Are large funds to be used to cover major unforeseen risks (e.g., change in project scope) of the total project. Time Buffers Amounts of time used to compensate for unplanned delays in the project schedule. Severe risk, merge, no

30、ncritical, and scarce resource activities,744,Contingency Fund Estimate ($000s,TABLE 7.1,745,Managing Risk (contd,Step 4: Risk Response Control Risk control Execution of the risk response strategy Monitoring of triggering events Initiating contingency plans Watching for new risks Establishing a Chan

31、ge Management System Monitoring, tracking, and reporting risk Fostering an open organization environment Repeating risk identification/assessment exercises Assigning and documenting responsibility for managing risk,746,Change Management Control,Sources of Change Project scope changes Implementation

32、of contingency plans Improvement changes,747,Change Control System Process,Identify proposed changes. List expected effects of proposed changes on schedule and budget. Review, evaluate, and approve or disapprove of changes formally. Negotiate and resolve conflicts of change, condition, and cost. Com

33、municate changes to parties affected. Assign responsibility for implementing change. Adjust master schedule and budget. Track all changes that are to be implemented,748,The Change Control Process,FIGURE 7.9,749,Benefits of a Change Control System,Inconsequential changes are discouraged by the formal

34、 process. Costs of changes are maintained in a log. Integrity of the WBS and performance measures is maintained. Allocation and use of budget and management reserve funds are tracked. Responsibility for implementation is clarified. Effect of changes is visible to all parties involved. Implementation

35、 of change is monitored. Scope changes will be quickly reflected in baseline and performance measures,750,Sample Change Request Form,FIGURE 7.10,751,Change Request Log,FIGURE 7.11,752,Key Terms,Avoiding risk Budget reserve Change management system Contingency plan Management reserve Mitigating risk

36、OpportunityRisk,Risk breakdown structure (RBS) Risk register Risk profile Risk severity matrix Scenario analysis Sharing risk Time buffer Transferring risk,Appendix 7.1,PERT and PERT Simulation,754,PERTProgram Evaluation Review Technique,Assumes each activity duration has a range that statistically

37、follows a beta distribution. Uses three time estimates for each activity: optimistic, pessimistic, and a weighted average to represent activity durations. Knowing the weighted average and variances for each activity allows the project planner to compute the probability of meeting different project d

38、urations,755,Activity and Project Frequency Distributions,FIGURE A7.1,756,Activity Time Calculations,757,Activity Time Calculations (contd,758,Activity Times and Variances,TABLE A7.1,759,Probability of Completing the Project,760,Hypothetical Network,FIGURE A7.2,761,Hypothetical Network (contd,FIGURE

39、 A7.2 (contd,762,Possible Project Duration,FIGURE A7.3,763,Z Values and Probabilities,TABLE A7.2,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,64,1,An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project objectives is termed.cA.Random chanceB.A

40、disasterC.RiskD.HazardE.Bad luck,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,65,2,The chances of a risk event occurring as a project proceeds through its life cycle tends toeA.Slowly riseB.Drop sharply and then level outC.Rise sharply and then level outD.Remain about the sameE.Slowly d

41、rop,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,66,3,The cost impact of a risk event occurring as a project proceeds through its life cycle tends toaA.Slowly riseB.Drop sharply and then level outC.Rise sharply and then level outD.Remain about the sameE.Slowly drop,2020/12/22,Edward Ton

42、g2008 copy reserved Jinan University,67,4,The attempt to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots that may occur when a project is implemented is known asbA.Risk forecastingB.Risk managementC.Contingency planningD.Scenario analysisE.Disaster protection,5,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008

43、 copy reserved Jinan University,68,Which of the following is not one of the steps in the risk management process?dA.Risk response developmentB.Risk assessmentC.Risk identificationD.Risk trackingE.Risk response control,6,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,69,The initial step in

44、 the risk management process is to cA.Determine the level of acceptable riskB.Assess the risk potentialC.Identify the risksD.Set aside budget funds for managing the risksE.Appoint a risk manager,7,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,70,One common mistake made early in the risk

45、identification process is todA.Not all possibilities are consideredB.Participants are over-optimisticC.Participants are over-pessimisticD.Focus on objectives and not on the events that could produce consequences.E.Too much attention is given to past events,8,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved

46、Jinan University,71,In the beginning the focus of risk management should be on risks thataA.Impact the whole projectB.Impact the critical pathC.Are knownD.Have the greatest cost impactE.Have the greatest schedule impact,9,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,72,The 1999 NASA Mar

47、s Climate Orbiter is an example ofdA.Disaster avoidance through proactive risk managementB.Murphys LawC.Proper use of critical thinkingD.Mismanaged risk controlE.Using historical records to assess risk,10,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,73,Which of the following would not b

48、e considered a threat?bA.InflationB.Meeting the project scheduleC.International disruptionsD.Economic conditionsE.Competition,11,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,74,A list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project is termed a riskaA.Risk profile

49、B.QuestionnaireC.ResearchD.QueryE.Checklist,12,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,75,Which of the following is typically included in risk profiles?dA.Management aspectsB.Market aspectsC.Technical aspectsD.Both A and C are includedE.A, B, and C are all included,13,2020/12/22,Ed

50、ward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,76,All of the following are included in the risk identification process exceptcA.CustomersB.SubcontractorsC.CompetitorsD.VendorsE.None of these are included,14,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,77,One of the keys to success in risk

51、 identification isaA.Critical thinkingB.OptimismC.PessimismD.A can do attitudeE.All of these are correct,15,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,78,The easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing risks is _ analysis.bA.ProbabilityB.ScenarioC.PaybackD.Risk/rewardE.Impa

52、ct,16,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,79,A risk profile is a list of questions that address traditional areas of uncertainty on a project that answers developed from:dA.When the event might occur in the projectB.Chances of the event occurringC.Interaction with other parts o

53、f the project or with other projectsD.From previous, similar projectsE.Magnitude or severity of the events impact,17,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,80,The risk management tool that is divided into three color-coded zones representing major, moderate, and minor risks is the

54、 riskeA.Assessment formB.Responsibility matrixC.Scenario assessmentD.Impact assessmentE.Risk severity matrix,18,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,81,The risk assessment form contains all of the following exceptcA.Likelihood of the risk event occurringB.Potential impact of the

55、 risk eventC.Who will detect the occurrence of the risk event.D.Difficulty of detecting the occurrence of the risk eventE.When the risk event may occur,19,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,82,The two scales of a risk severity matrix measureeA.Time, costB.Cost, scheduleC.Impac

56、t, costD.Time, impactE.Likelihood, impact,20,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,83,Which of the following is not one of the probability analysis tools?aA.Ratio/range analysisB.Decision treeC.PERT simulationD.PERTE.All of these are probability analysis tools,21,2020/12/22,Edwar

57、d Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,84,This risk assessment tool is a variation of the risk severity matrix that includes the ease of detection for each of the identified risks.bA.PERT simulationB.FMEA analysisC.Ratio/range analysisD.Probability analysisE.Semi-quantitative analysis,22,2020/12/

58、22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,85,Which of the following is not included in a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis?eA.ImpactB.ProbabilityC.DetectionD.Risk valueE.All of these are included,23,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,86,Which of the following is used t

59、o review activity and project risk? cA.NPVB.S-curvesC.PERTD.Decision treesE.All of these can be used,24,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,87,Which of the following is not one of the potential responses to a specific risk event?cA.MitigatingB.RetainingC.IgnoringD.TransferringE.Sharing,25,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan University,88,A Risk Response Matrix contains all of the following excepteA.Contingency planB.TriggerC.Who is responsible?D.ResponseE.All of these are included in the matrix,26,2020/12/22,Edward Tong2008 copy reserved Jinan Universi