德银-南非-宏观经济-南非通胀上升-20180124-9页VIP

1、Deutsche Bank Markets ResearchSub-Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaEconomicsEMEA SnapDate24 January 2018South Africa: Uptick in ination, but on course for lower prints to followSouth Africa December inflation up slightly to 4.7% YoYConsumer prices increased by 0.5% MoM in December, the fastest increase in

2、three months. This takes full year average ination to 5.3%, now within the SARBs target band of 3% - 6%, compared to 6.3% at the end of 2016. Core prices also increased at the fastest pace in three months at 0.3% MoM. Headline YoY core ination declined by 0.2pps to 4.2% YoY nonetheless, on the back

3、of a higher base.In this note, we analyse the details of the December ination print, provide an update on upcoming ination dynamics and discuss implications for the Fixed Income market.Fixed Income Trade recommendation: Be long R2030 (entrance: 9.17, current: 8.88, target: 8.50, stop: 9.50)Elina Rib

4、akova Chief Economist+44-20-7547-1340Twisha Roy Research AssociateChristian Wietoska Strategist+44-20-754-52424Deutsche Bank AG/LondonDistributed on: 24/01/2018 16:42:07 GMT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa24 January 2018EMEA Snap

5、South Africa December ination up slightly to 4.7% YoYConsumer prices increased by 0.5% MoM in December, the fastest increase in three months. This takes full year average ination to 5.3%, now within the SARBs target band of 3% - 6%, compared to 6.3% at the end of 2016. Core prices also increased at

6、the fastest pace in three months at 0.3% MoM. Headline YoY core ination declined by 0.2pps to 4.2% YoY nonetheless, on the back of a higher base.The jump in monthly prices were driven by three main forces ltering through- increase in global oil prices have aected transportation costs, growth in econ

7、omy-wide wages have aected some services costs and upward pressure in house prices have aected house rentals. The largest increases were posted by the following components. (i) Ination in transport costs have gone up by1.0 pps to 1.5% MoM on the back of higher ination in petrol prices and public tra

8、nsportation charges. (ii). Household maintenance costs have also increased, posting a monthly rise of 0.5% MoM (prev. -0.2% MoM). The jump has come mainly from the subcomponent domestic workers wages, as economy-wide wages are on the rise. Prices of household appliances and tableware have also poste

9、d a solid rise. (iii) Housing costs ination has increased by 0.4pps to 0.4% MoM, on the back of actual and implied rentals. House prices have been showing signs of upward pressure, which has fed into housing costs via rentals in December.In YoY terms, ination in transport costs is the main driver. I

10、nation in transportation costs has jumped on the back of a higher monthly increase in fuel prices aswell as public transport costs, increasing to 6.4% YoYin December (from 4.4% YoY previously). Annual ination in food prices have continued to decline, and have now reached a 25 month low of 4.9% YoY o

11、n the back of a higher base, despite a 0.5% monthly increase in prices. Ination in household maintenance costs and housing costs in YoY terms have continued to decline, despite the monthly increases.Deutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 3We now expect ination to remain 4-5.5% this year, reaching 4.6% YoY at y

12、ear end.Favourable base eects are likely to drive ination lower over the next few months. Moreover, the sharp appreciation in ZAR in December, as a result of the election of Ramaphosa to party head boosting market sentiment, should also lter through to lower ination in early 2018. However, ination p

13、ressure will increase from Q2 onwards and reach closer to 5.0% by year-end. This will take the annual average ination down to 4.8% in 2018. Upside risks to ination from higher electricity taris are lower now, as the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) has approved only a 5.23% hike in

14、electricity taris of Eskom in 2018, compared to a demand for 19.9% increase in taris and a 2.2% actual increase in electricity taris this year.However, other sources of upside risks remain. Inline withthe details fromtodays ination data, international oil price developments, changes inhousing costs

15、and outcome of public sector wage negotiations will continue to aect prices as well. Moreover,inationexpectations remainanchoredattheupperboundofthetarget corridor of 6% and may feed into headline ination via deferred savings. Further upside risk to ination exists in the form of the possible credit

16、rating downgrade on LCby Moodys, leading toexclusion from key bond indices andforced selling of government bonds), which will aect ination through deterioration of the rand.Figure 1: SARB and DB ination forecast path7.06.56.05.55.04.54.0SARB headline inflation forecastsQ1-17Q3-17Q1-18Q3-18Q1-19Q3-19

17、Source: SARB, StatSA, Deutsche Bank Actual Jan-18 forecast Nov-17 forecasts DBThe SARB estimates FX pass-through to ination at 10-15%, which we think might be a little on the higher side.Fixed Income StrategyDespite some market hopes that ination would come in signicantly lower, we highlight that th

18、e favourable base eects due to the sharp FX appreciation will only play out over the next few months. Ination will move lower and we expect headline ination at close to 4.0% with the trough in the February print (released in mid-March). Given agradual increase inination pressure from Q2 onward with

19、our view of ination back closer to 5.0% by year-end, it will be key to see how the SARBreacts tothenext couple ination prints. There is clearly apossibility ofcuts. However, slowly improving growth dynamics, higher energy prices, historically dicult wage negotiations and higher global core rates in

20、combination with a cautious SARB will make an aggressive easing cycle dicult. We dont see a similar story as in Brazil on ination. Further real rates are noticeably lower and for now, pricing more than 50bp of cuts into the cycle (currently 40bp priced) is- once again - an overreaction of the market

21、, in our view.Last but not least, when looking into the historical relationship between ination and short-end rates, we note that a 4.7% ination print implies 1Y1Y at 7.0%. Hence the current 6.85% looks a touch too low already. Taking the upcoming favourable ination dynamics into account, the averag

22、e expected ination for Q1 (DB forecast: 4.23%) implies 1Y1Y IRS at 6.82%. Hence, there is not necessarily a dislocation in the short-end right now and the ination impulse is not negative but also not a big support for short-end rates at current pricing.Hence, our view thatrisk-reward for being bulli

23、sh South African rates remains still more attractive in duration rather than the short-end and todays curve attening on the back of the release is in line with our expectations.Trade recommendation: Be long R2030 (entrance: 9.17, current: 8.88, target: 8.50, stop: 9.50). For more details on the trad

24、e, please see here: Portfolio update South AfricaAppendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other

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27、 investing.Analyst CerticationThe views expressed in this report accurately reect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specic recommendation or view in this report. Elina Riba

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47、de surprises in ination, scal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among the most common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for dierent types of investors),

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