翻译文献-第二章：真正的进度表

外文原文CHAPTERTWOTHETRUTHABOUTSCHEDULESSOMEPEOPLETENDTOBELATEITMIGHTBEONLYAFEWMINUTESONOCCASION,ORJUSTACOUPLEOFTIMESAWEEK,BUTPEOPLEAREOFTENBEHINDONTHEIRDAILYSCHEDULESHOWEVER,BECAUSEDENIALISANOTHERGREATSKILLHUMANBEINGSSEEMTOHAVE,ILLUNDERSTANDIFYOUREFUSETOADMITTHATTHISCLAIMAPPLIESTOYOUHIGHSCHOOLSTUDENTSARELATEFORCLASS,ADULTSARELATEFORMEETINGSATWORK,ANDFRIENDSARRIVE10MINUTESLATEATTHEBARFORDRINKSITSEEMSTHATSUBCONSCIOUSLYWEOFTENBELIEVETHATBEINGONTIMEISNTABOUTTARGETINGASPECIFICMOMENTBUTINSTEADISABOUTBEINGWITHINARANGEOFMOMENTS,ANDFORSOMEPEOPLE,THATRANGEISWIDERTHANFOROTHERSANINTERESTINGEXAMPLEISTHEMANYHOSTESSESWHOGREETUSATRESTAURANTSTHEYTELLUSATABLEWILLBEREADYSOON,BUTOFTENWEREMADETOWAITQUITEAWHILEITSTHESEEXPERIENCESOFDELAYEDSCHEDULES,BEINGPUTONHOLDONTHETELEPHONE,ORWAITINGINTHEDOCTORSOFFICE,THATHAVECAUSEDUSTOBECOMECYNICALABOUTSCHEDULESWEHAVESOMUCHEXPERIENCEWITHLIFENOTWORKINGOUTACCORDINGTOTHEMITISNTASURPRISETHENTHATSOMANYPROJECTSCOMEINLATEASHUMANBEINGS,MOSTOFUSARRIVEATTHETASKOFSCHEDULINGPROJECTSWITHAQUESTIONABLETRACKRECORDFORDELIVERINGORRECEIVINGTHINGSONTIMEWETENDTOESTIMATEBASEDONWEAKASSUMPTIONS,PREDICTOUTCOMESFORWORKBASEDONTHEBESTPOSSIBLESETOFCIRCUMSTANCES,ANDGIVENOURPRIOREXPERIENCESSIMULTANEOUSLYAVOIDPLACINGTOOMUCHCONFIDENCEINANYSCHEDULEWESEEORCREATEWHYWEDOTHIS,HOWITIMPACTSPROJECTSCHEDULES,ANDWHATCANBEDONETOAVOIDTHESEPROBLEMSISTHESUBJECTOFTHISCHAPTERBUTBEFOREWECANFIGUREOUTHOWTOMAKEBETTERSCHEDULES,WEFIRSTHAVETOUNDERSTANDWHATPROBLEMSSCHEDULESSOLVEIFTHEYARESOUNRELIABLE,WHYBOTHERWITHTHEMATALLSCHEDULESSERVESEVERALDIFFERENTPURPOSESONLYSOMEOFWHICHAREFOCUSEDONMEASURINGTHEUSEOFTIME21SCHEDULESHAVETHREEPURPOSESALLSCHEDULES,WHETHERFORPLANNINGAWEEKENDPARTYORFORUPDATINGANINTRANETSITE,SERVETHREEPRIMARYPURPOSESTHEFIRST,ANDTHEMOSTWELLKNOWN,ISTOMAKECOMMITMENTSABOUTWHENTHINGSWILLBEDONETHESCHEDULEPROVIDESAFORMOFCONTRACTBETWEENEVERYPERSONONATEAMORINANORGANIZATION,CONFIRMINGWHATEACHPERSONISGOINGTODELIVEROVERTHENEXTWEEK,MONTH,ORYEARGENERALLY,WHENPEOPLETHINKABOUTPROJECTSCHEDULES,ITSTHISFIRSTPURPOSETHATTHEYRETHINKINGABOUTSCHEDULESAREOFTENFOCUSEDEXTERNALLY,OUTSIDETHEPROJECTTEAMRATHERTHANWITHIN,BECAUSETHEYAREUSEDTOHELPCLOSEADEALORCOMPLYWITHACUSTOMERSTIMELINEOFTEN,THECUSTOMERISEXPLICITLYPAYINGFORTHETIMELINEASWELLASFORTHESERVICEPROVIDEDTHINKUPSORFEDEXINORDERTOALLOWCUSTOMERSORPARTNERSTOMAKEPLANSBASEDONAGIVENPROJECT,ATIMEHASTOBEAGREEDUPONFORWHENSPECIFICTHINGSWILLHAPPENTHESECONDPURPOSEOFASCHEDULEISTOENCOURAGEEVERYONEWHOSCONTRIBUTINGTOAPROJECTTOSEEHEREFFORTSASPARTOFAWHOLE,ANDINVESTINMAKINGHERPIECESWORKWITHTHEOTHERSUNTILTHEREISADRAFTSCHEDULESUGGESTINGSPECIFICDATESANDTIMESFORWHENTHINGSHAVETOBEREADY,ITSUNLIKELYTHATCONNECTIONSANDDEPENDENCIESACROSSPEOPLEORTEAMSWILLBESCRUTINIZEDINSTEAD,EVERYONEWILLWORKONHEROWNTASK,ANDTENDNOTTOTHINKABOUTHOWHERWORKWILLIMPACTOTHERSITSONLYWHENTHEDETAILSAREWRITTENDOWN,WITHPEOPLESNAMESNEXTTOTHEM,WHICHREALCALCULATIONSCANBEMADEANDASSUMPTIONSEXAMINEDTHISISTRUEEVENFORSMALLTEAMSORFORINDIVIDUALSWORKINGALONETHEREISPSYCHOLOGICALPOWERINASCHEDULETHATEXTERNALIZESANDAMPLIFIESTHECOMMITMENTTHATISBEINGMADEINSTEADOFDATESANDCOMMITMENTSEXISTINGONLYINSIDESOMEONESMIND,THEYAREWRITTENDOWNANDEXISTINTHEUNIVERSEALLONTHEIROWNITISNOTASEASYTOFORGETORIGNORESOMETHINGWHENITSPOSTEDONAWHITEBOARDINTHEHALLWAY,REMINDINGYOUORTHETEAMOFWHATNEEDSTOBEDONEANDSPECIFICTOPMSWITHADRAFTSCHEDULEINPLACE,QUESTIONSABOUTHOWREALISTICCERTAINTHINGSARECANBERAISED,ANDCOMPARISONSCANBEMADEBETWEENWHATTHEPROJECTISBEINGASKEDTODOWITHWHATAPPEARSTOBEPOSSIBLEINAGIVENPERIODOFTIMETHISPSYCHOLOGICALORPRESSURESHIFTISWHATSCALLEDAFORCINGFUNCTIONAFORCINGFUNCTIONISANYTHINGTHATWHENPUTINPLACENATURALLYFORCESACHANGEINPERSPECTIVE,ATTITUDE,ORBEHAVIORSO,SCHEDULESAREIMPORTANTFORCINGFUNCTIONSFORPROJECTSIFUSEDPROPERLYBYAPM,SCHEDULESFORCEEVERYONEWHOSEWORKAPPEARSONTHEMTOCAREFULLYTHINKTHROUGHTHEWORKTHEYNEEDTODOANDHOWITFITSINTOWHATOTHERSAREDOINGTHISAWARENESSOFTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENPARTSISSOMEWHATINDEPENDENTOFTHESCHEDULEITSELFTHISFORCINGFUNCTIONISACRITICALSTEPTOWARDREALIZINGTHEPROJECTSPOTENTIALEVENIFTHESCHEDULESLIPS,ISDOUBLED,ISHALVED,ORGOESTHROUGHAVARIETYOFOTHERTORTUROUSPERMUTATIONS,THECOMMITMENTSANDCONNECTIONSEVERYONEHASMADEWITHEACHOTHERWILLBEMAINTAINEDSO,THISSECONDPURPOSEOFASCHEDULECANBEACHIEVEDANDCANBEENTIRELYWORTHTHEEFFORTOFCREATINGASCHEDULE,EVENIFTHESCHEDULEITSELFTURNSOUTTOBESERIOUSLYINACCURATEFOREXAMPLE,IFTHEPROJECTCOMESINVERYLATE,THEEXISTENCEOFASCHEDULEWILLBECRITICALINHELPINGTHEPROJECTREACHCOMPLETIONATALLTHETHIRDPURPOSEOFSCHEDULESISTOGIVETHETEAMATOOLTOTRACKPROGRESSANDTOBREAKWORKINTOMANAGEABLECHUNKSBREAKINGTHINGSDOWNINTOONEORTWODAYSIZESACTUALLYHELPSPEOPLETOUNDERSTANDWHATTHEWORKISTHATTHEYNEEDTODOIMAGINEIF,WHENBUILDINGAHOUSE,THEBUILDERGAVEONELINEITEM“HOUSE120DAYS“WITHSUCHLOWGRANULARITY,ITSDIFFICULTFORANYONE,INCLUDINGTHEBUILDERHIMSELF,TOUNDERSTANDWHICHTHINGSNEEDTOBEDONEFIRST,ORWHICHWORKITEMSARETHEMOSTEXPENSIVEORTIMECONSUMINGBUTIFTHEBUILDERCANPROVIDEAWEEKBYWEEKBREAKDOWNOFACTIVITIES,EVERYONEHASACLEARERUNDERSTANDINGOFWHATTASKSWILLBEDONEWHEN,ANDEACHTEAMMEMBERHASAGREATEROPPORTUNITYTOASKGOODQUESTIONSANDCLARIFYASSUMPTIONSFROMTHEPMSPERSPECTIVE,AGOODSCHEDULEGIVESACLEARERVIEWOFTHEPROJECT,FLUSHESOUTCHALLENGESANDOVERSIGHTS,ANDINCREASESTHEODDSTHATGOODTHINGSWILLHAPPENTHELARGERANDMORECOMPLEXTHEPROJECT,THEMOREIMPORTANTSCHEDULESAREONLARGERPROJECTS,THEREAREMOREDEPENDENCIESBETWEENPEOPLE,ANDDECISIONSANDTIMINGSHAVEGREATERODDSOFIMPACTINGOTHERSWHENYOUHAVEAHANDFULOFPEOPLEWORKINGONASMALLTEAM,THEODDSOFPEOPLERECOGNIZINGPROBLEMSINEACHOTHERSWORKAREMUCHHIGHERSCHEDULESLIPSONSMALLTEAMSARENTGOODNEWS,BUT,INSUCHACASE,AHALFDAYSLIPREPRESENTSANADDITIONALHALFDAYOFENERGYFORTHREEPEOPLEONLY,SORECOVERYISPOSSIBLESOMEONECANSTAYLATEONENIGHT,OR,IFNECESSARY,THETEAMCANALLCOMEINTOGETHERANDAGREETOHELPMAKEUPTHETIMEONALARGERPROJECT,WITHDOZENSORHUNDREDSOFPEOPLEANDCOMPONENTS,AONEDAYSLIPCANQUICKLYCASCADEANDCREATEPROBLEMSINALLSORTSOFUNFORESEENWAYS,WHICHISOFTENBEYONDATEAMSPOINTOFRECOVERYEITHERWAY,BIGTEAMORSMALL,SCHEDULESGIVEMANAGERSANDBEANCOUNTERSTHEOPPORTUNITYTOASKQUESTIONS,MAKEADJUSTMENTS,ANDHELPTHETEAMBYSURFACINGANDRESPONDINGTOISSUESASTHEYARISEWITHTHESETHREEPURPOSESINMIND,ITSEASYTOSEETHATPERFECTSCHEDULESDONTSOLVEALLOFTHEPROBLEMSTHATPROJECTSHAVEASCHEDULECANNOTREMEDYBADDESIGNORENGINEERINGPRACTICES,NORCANITPROTECTAPROJECTFROMWEAKLEADERSHIP,UNCLEARGOALS,ANDPOORCOMMUNICATIONSO,FORASMUCHTIMEASITTAKESTOCREATESCHEDULES,THEYARESTILLJUSTLISTSOFWORDSANDNUMBERSITSUPTOSOMEONETOUSETHEMASATOOLFORMANAGINGANDDRIVINGTHEPROJECTWITHTHISINMIND,ITSTIMETOBRINGOUTTHEBIGVOCABULARYANDEXPLORESOFTWAREMETHODOLOGIESTHEHEAVYMACHINERYOFPROJECTMANAGEMENT22SILVERBULLETSANDMETHODOLOGIESTHEREAREMANYDIFFERENTSYSTEMSFORHOWTOPLANANDMANAGETHEDEVELOPMENTOFSOFTWARETHESESYSTEMSAREOFTENCALLEDMETHODOLOGIES,WHICHMEANABODYOFPRACTICESAIMEDATACHIEVINGACERTAINKINDOFRESULTCOMMONSOFTWAREMETHODSINCLUDETHEWATERFALLMODEL,SPIRALMODEL,RAPIDAPPLICATIONSDEVELOPMENT,EXTREMEPROGRAMMING,ANDFEATUREDRIVENDEVELOPMENTALLOFTHESEMETHODSATTEMPTTOSOLVESIMILARORGANIZATIONANDPROJECTMANAGEMENTPROBLEMSTHEYEACHHAVESTRENGTHSANDWEAKNESSES,ANDITTAKESKNOWLEDGEANDEXPERIENCETODECIDEWHICHONEISRIGHTFORWHATKINDOFPROJECTBUTMYGOALINTHISCHAPTER,ANDINTHISBOOK,ISNTTODEBATEANDCOMPAREDIFFERENTMETHODOLOGIESORSYSTEMSFORDOINGTHINGSINSTEAD,IBELIEVETHEREARECONCEPTSANDTACTICSTHATUNDERLIETHEMALLANDWHICHNEEDTOBEMASTEREDINORDERTOSUCCEEDWITHANYMETHODOLOGYINALLCASES,METHODOLOGIESNEEDTOBEADJUSTEDANDADAPTEDTOFITTHESPECIFICSOFATEAMANDAPROJECT,ANDTHATSPOSSIBLEONLYIFYOUHAVEAFOUNDATIONOFKNOWLEDGETHATSDEEPERTHANTHEMETHODOLOGIESTHEMSELVESSO,IFYOUCANUNDERSTANDANDPRACTICETHEUNDERLYINGIDEASDESCRIBEDINTHISCHAPTERANDINTHERESTOFTHEBOOK,YOURODDSOFBEINGEFFECTIVEWILLINCREASE,INDEPENDENTOFWHICHMETHODOLOGYYOUREUSINGILLEXPLAINASPECTSOFCERTAINMETHODSASNEEDEDTOCLARIFYPOINTS,BUTYOULLHAVETOLOOKELSEWHEREIFYOUREMETHODOLOGYSHOPPINGALTHOUGHMETHODSANDPROCESSESFORSOFTWAREDEVELOPMENTAREVERYIMPORTANT,THEYARENOTINANDOFTHEMSELVESSILVERBULLETS,ORDELIVERERSOFSUCCESSFULOUTCOMESTHEWORSTTHINGISTOBLINDLYFOLLOWASETOFRULESORPROCEDURESTHATARECLEARLYNOTWORKING,SIMPLYBECAUSETHEYSHOWUPINSOMEFAMOUSBOOKORAREPROMOTEDBYAWELLRESPECTEDGURUMOREOFTENTHANNOT,IVEFOUNDTHATOBSESSINGONPROCESSISAWARNINGSIGNOFLEADERSHIPTROUBLEITCANBEANATTEMPTTOOFFLOADTHENATURALCHALLENGESANDRESPONSIBILITIESTHATMANAGERSFACEINTOASYSTEMOFPROCEDURESANDBUREAUCRACIESTHATCLOUDTHENEEDFORREALTHOUGHTANDACTIONPERHAPSEVENMOREDEVASTATINGTOATEAMISTHATMETHODOLOGYFIXATIONCANBEASIGNALOFWHATISTRULYIMPORTANTTOTHEORGANIZATIONASTOMDEMARCOWRITESINTHEBOOKPEOPLEWARETHEOBSESSIONWITHMETHODOLOGIESINTHEWORKPLACEISANOTHERINSTANCEOFTHEHIGHTECHILLUSIONITSTEMSFROMTHEBELIEFTHATWHATREALLYMATTERSISTHETECHNOLOGYWHATEVERTHETECHNOLOGICALADVANTAGEMAYBE,ITMAYCOMEONLYATTHEPRICEOFASIGNIFICANTWORSENINGOFTHETEAMSSOCIOLOGYBYFOCUSINGONMETHODANDPROCEDURE,INSTEADOFBUILDINGPROCEDURESTOSUPPORTANDAMPLIFYTHEVALUEOFPEOPLE,PROJECTSSTARTTHESCHEDULINGPROCESSBYLIMITINGTHECONTRIBUTIONSOFINDIVIDUALSTHEYCANSETATONEOFRULESANDRULEFOLLOWING,RATHERTHANTHINKINGANDRULEADJUSTINGORRULEIMPROVINGSO,BEVERYCAREFULOFHOWYOUAPPLYWHATEVERMETHODOLOGYYOUUSEITSHOULDNTBESOMETHINGINFLICTEDONTHETEAMINSTEAD,ITSHOULDBESOMETHINGTHATSUPPORTS,ENCOURAGES,ANDASSISTSTHETEAMINDOINGGOODWORKONTHEPROJECTSO,REMEMBERTHATTHEUSEOFONEMETHODOLOGYORANOTHERISNEVERTHESOLEREASONFORAPROJECTMAKINGORMISSINGITSDATESINSTEAD,THEREAREFACTORSTHATIMPACTALLPROJECTSCHEDULES,ANDPROJECTMANAGERSHAVETOUNDERSTANDTHEMBEFOREANYSCHEDULINGWORKISEVERDONEBUTBEFOREWETALKABOUTTHAT,WENEEDTOCOVERTHECOMPONENTSOFASCHEDULE23WHATSCHEDULESLOOKLIKETHEREISONEBASICRULEOFTHUMBFORALLSCHEDULESTHERULEOFTHIRDSITSANEXTREMELYROUGHESTIMATIONANDBACKOFTHEENVELOPEKINDOFTHING,BUTITSTHESIMPLESTWAYTOAPPROACHANDUNDERSTANDSCHEDULESIFYOUAREEXPERIENCEDWITHSCHEDULING,PREPARETOCRINGEIMGOINGTOOVERSIMPLIFYTHEENTIREPROCESSIMDOINGTHISTOPROVIDETHESIMPLESTFOOTINGPOSSIBLETOTALKABOUTWHATTENDSTOGOWRONG,WHYTHISHAPPENS,ANDWHATCANBEDONEABOUTITHERESHOWTHEULTRASIMPLIFIEDMODELFORSCHEDULINGWORKSFORANYPROJECT,BREAKTHEAVAILABLETIMEINTOTHREEPARTSONEFORDESIGN,ONEFORIMPLEMENTATION,ANDONEFORTESTINGDEPENDINGONTHEMETHODOLOGIESYOUUSE,THESEPHASESWILLBECALLEDDIFFERENTTHINGS,ORTHEYMAYOVERLAPWITHEACHOTHERINCERTAINWAYS,BUTALLMETHO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这些方住都试着解决类似的组织及项目管理问题，各有优缺点，而且需要知识和经验以决定哪种方法适用于哪种项目。但本章及本书的目标并非争论及比较不同方法论或系统的做事方法。相反地，我相信这些方法之下都有些概念和策略，必须对其精通，才能确保采用任何方法论都会成功。无论哪种情况，方法论都必须经过调整以适用于团队及项目的特定需求。除非你有比方法论本身更深层的知识基础，否则是办不到的。所以，如果你能了解而且善用本章及本书之后所说明的基础概念，无论采用哪种方法论，使你更有效率的机会都将增加。我会在必要时说明特定方法的某些方面，以理清一些重点，但是，如果你是要查看多种方法论，就要到别的地方找了。虽然方法和流程对软件开发而言非常重要，但他们本身并非银弹，也无法让你获得成功结果。最糟糕的就是盲从一些显然行不通的规则或步骤，而这样做的原因只是