贸易集团和货币联合体trade blocs and monetary unions-mauro f. guillén-沃顿商学院

Trade Blocs and Monetary Unions,Mauro F. Guilln,Multilateralism: The GATT Rounds(General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade),* Ended with the creation of the WTO. * Started by the WTO.,The WTO,Dark green: founding members in 1995. (Today there are 153.),Types of Blocs,A group of countries that agrees to one or more of the following:Reduce tariffs for certain goods preferential trade area.Remove internal trade barriers free trade area.Coordinate external trade barriers customs union.Allow for the free movement of capitalAllow for the free movement of laborCoordinate indirect tax policyCoordinate regulatory & competition policiesCoordinate macroeconomic policies economic union.Introduce a common currency monetary union.Merge treasuries and fiscal policies fiscal union.Coordinate foreign & defense policies political union.The European Union meets criteria 2-7 & 9 (8?).The NAFTA meets criteria 2 and 4.The Mercosur/Mercosul meets criteria 1-4.,single market.,common market.,Trade Blocs Tend to Include Countries:,At similar levels of development.Geographically close or adjacent.With similar trade regimes.Sharing a desire to organize regionally.,How Common are They?,1834: Zollverein, first modern trade bloc.There are 219 trade blocs presently in force, and registered with the WTO /UI/PublicAllRTAList.aspx1990s: Trend towards continental-size blocs.,Main Trade Blocs,What are Trade Blocs, Really?,People are very excited about trade blocs.Officially, an attempt to enhance trade.In reality, trade blocs destroy, divert, and create trade in complex ways.They can be an attempt to privilege insiders relative to outsiders.,NAFTA,Only large trade bloc that includes both rich & developing countries:Mexico is “so far away from God, and ”Very controversial (“social dumping”).Its a “free trade area” + free capital flows:Origin & content rules are necessary.Various unintended consequences/effects.External trade policies are not coordinated.Some product & environmental regulations.Trucking issue: first Mexican truck crossed the border in October 2011.,Automobile Assembly in Mexico(thousand units),Sources: Automotive News; Asociacin Mexicana de la Industria Automotriz.,A maquila worker inserts electronic components at an assembly line for video turners, Tuesday, Nov. 18, 1998 at the Samsung Electromechanics plant in Tijuana, Mexico. Sprawled across a hillside on Tijuanas outskirts, Samsungs state-of-the-art manufacturing complex is a hive of activity, except for the cavernous blue-and-beige building on the campus eastern edge. Built as part of a planned $400 million expansion, the empty building now serves only as a reminder of the long reach of the Asian financial crisis.(AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes),FTAs: Origin and Content Rules,For a good to be sold duty-free anywhere within the FTA, it must exceed a minimum level of “local content.”For instance, in the NAFTA, an automobile is deemed to be “North American” if the percentage of local (i.e. within bloc) value attributable to 69 key components (e.g., engines, transmissions, bumpers) exceeds 62.5% .,A Sudden Devaluation,In late 1995 and early 1996, over a period of 5 weeks, the Mexican peso lost 45% of its value relative to the dollar.What was the consequence of this change for companies wishing to comply with the 62.5% local content rule?How could they adapt to the new situation?,Economic Controversies,Competitive implications: Economies of scale.Improved terms of trade (through either bargaining power or specialization):Welfare implications: trade creation, diversion, and destruction, depending on the characteristics of the bloc (FTA vs. CU, level of external tariff(s), etc.).,Source: Edward D. Mansfield and Helen V. Milner, “The New Wave of Regionalism.” International Organization 53(3) (Summer 1999):589-627.,p is price, q is quantity.X is exports, M is imports.c is the current period.0 is the base period.i is the product.,Political Controversies,Domestic:Who is in favor, and who is against? Exporters (L vs. K-intensive), import-competitors, consumers, investors, etc.Justification for unpopular adjustment policies.International:Pressures towards democratization (e.g. Spain, Portugal, Paraguay, etc.).Enhanced power in multilateral trade negotiations.Improved global governance.Extension of influence over weaker states.,Sources: Edward D. Mansfield and Helen V. Milner, “The New Wave of Regionalism.” International Organization 53(3) (Summer 1999):589-627; Andrew G. Brown, and Robert M. Stern, “Free Trade Agreements and the Governance of the Global Trading System.” The World Economy (2011):331-354.,Local Content Formula,Problem Set #2,Please work individually.Due in one week from today.,The Euro Cliffhanger:An Avalanche of Thrills,National Currencies: The Post Bretton Woods World,Source: Reuven Glick and Andrew K. Rose,“Contagion and Trade. Why are Currency Crises Regional?”Journal of International Money and Finance 18 (1999):603-617.,Monetary Unions,Source: Roel Beetsma and Massimo Giuliodori, “The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of EMU and Other Monetary Unions.” Journal of Economic Literature 48 (September 2010):603-641.,The Governing Council makes decisions by majority vote.,Consequences of Monetary Unions,Member countries cannot print money to inflate their debt away.They cannot devalue the currency to regain competitiveness.In order for a monetary union to work:Labor needs to be able & willing to move around in search of opportunities.Fiscal union is advisable. Because members usually retain sovereignty, they usually do not get transfers to make up for revenue shortfalls or increased social spending during a crisis.,Nota bene: Robert Mundell won the Nobel Prize for his work on optimal currency areas.,The Way it Was Supposed to Be,The architects of the euro believed that a Greece-like problem would not occur because financial markets would have punished countries with excessive debt by raising the cost of borrowing. They didnt until the global financial crisis started.The European Central Bank (ECB):Prohibits loaning money to service national debts.Its no-bail-out clause discourages overspending. It did not.The Stability and Growth Pact should have prevented the situation from worsening:Deficit/GDP 3% and Gross debt/GDP 60%.It was not enforced, and in 2005 the rules were relaxed at the request of France and Germany.,Source: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, “The Future of the Euro.” Foreign Affairs (2010).,Labor Protections in the OECD,Note: The index is based on protections against dismissal for permanent employees, regulation of temporary employment, and requirements for collective dismissal. Source: OECD Employment Protection Legislation database.,Source: Adrian Blundell-Wignall and Patrick Slovik, “The EU Stress Test and Sovereign Debt Exposures.” (OECD, August 2010).,EU Banks Exposure to Sovereign Debt,Counterparty Risk,Nobody really knows how much because most instruments are traded over the counter. Estimates range between 4 and 100 or more billion of exposure to a Greek “credit event.”Hedging.CDSs.Naked CDSs.,Public Debt as % of GDP,Note: Data after 2009 are projections. Source: IMF.,The “PIIGS”,Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (September 2011).,Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report (September 2011).,What Are Policymakers Doing?They are meeting,Only 440 in the fund.,100 IT+ES; 70 PIG., and making some decisions,The Euro Deal 27 October 2011,Greek debt: haircut of 50%.Bank recapitalization for 106 bn ($146 bn). Must reach 9% of tier 1 capital within 9 months. (But the calculations based on just 70 banks out of the 5,000 in the Euro Zone.Firewall: 1 trillion European Financial Stability Facility, but with just 20% equity. The rest to be raised through Special Purpose Vehicles issuing collateralized debt obligations (up to a 5 leverage).,From The Economist, April 2-8, 2011.,Europes Biggest Problem:Lack of Leadership,Claudio Barbaro (L), a member of the opposition FLI party, fought with Fabio Ranieri (R) from the Northern League in Italys Parliament on 26 October 2011. Photo Reuters.,Is the Euro Good for Germany?,Eurozone: 2/5 of German exports.The crisis in the periphery of the Eurozone has depressed the value of the euro. The DM would be overvalued nowadays.German firms benefited from the investment boom in the periphery.Large German firms in favor of bailouts; Mittelstand firms skeptical.The rate of inflation in Germany has been lower than with the DM.Reserves in DM + FFr + Guilders.,Is the Euro Good for Greece?,Source: /2011/10/greek-tradable-sector-odyssey.html,Greeces Exports,Shipping services.Tourism.Apparel.Vegetables & fruit.Non-ferrous metals.Pharmaceuticals.Electrical equipment.,A White Knight?,Balance of Payments in 2010 (US$bn),Source: Re-calculated by M. Guillen with data reported by BEA, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Central Bank of India, and Banco Central do Brasil.,Additional Slides on the Euro Cliffhanger,Source: Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia, “Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database.” IMF WP 08/224.,Frequency of Financial Crises,Twin crisis = banking + currency.,Triplet crisis = banking + currency + sovereign debt.,Source: Carmen M. Reinhardt and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “This Times is Different.” NBER WP 13882 (2008).,G7 Sovereign Debt (% of GDP),Source: IMF, “Long-Tern Trends in Public Finances in the G-7 Economies” (2010).,G7 Sovereign Debt (continued),Source: IMF, “Long-Tern Trends in Public Finances in the G-7 Economies” (2010).,Bank Holdings of Sovereign Debt (Dec 2010),Banks Capital Needs (adjusted for the impact of sovereign debt holdings, 2011),Trust in the Banks,Were All Different,“Italy is absolutely not in the same situation as Greece.”Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, April 9 “What the Portuguese government wants the world to know is simpler: Portugal is not Greece.”The Economist magazine, April 22 “Portugal, Spain, Ireland or Italy are not in the same situation as Greece. And Belgium less yet.”Guy Quaden, governor of the National Bank of Belgium, May 7 “ Ireland is no Greece confirms latest economic forecast.”Ernst and Young, in its Economic Eye Summer Forecast, June 2010 Greece is not Ireland; it doesnt have banking stability problems.”George Papaconstantinou, finance minister of Greece, Nov. 8 “Our economy is very different from that of Greece or Ireland because our financial sector has benefited by the supervision and regulation of the Bank of Spain, which was missing in Ireland.”Elena Salgado, the Spanish finance minister in an interview in the British newspaper The Independent, Nov. 25 Bank failures in Ireland had “nothing to do with Portugal.”ngel Gurra, secretary general of the OECD, in Bloomberg News, Nov. 22 “Portugal does not need any help, it is in a very different situation to Ireland.”Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, Nov. 23 “Zapatero gets it and Spain is taking its medicine pre-emptively. Certainly, Spain faces serious economic growth and labor market challenges as it works its way through a devastating real estate collapse in the coming quarters. But it has neither the debt stock of Greece, the bust banks of Ireland or the complacent government of Portugal.”Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, research fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics in a CNBC guest blog post, Nov. 24.Source: Landon Thomas, Jr. , “They are not like Ireland. Really.” The New York Times (Nov. 27, 2010)., but Some Animals are More Different Than Others.,The “Exorbitant Privilege” of the Reserve Currency*,* Term used by French Finance Minister Valry Giscard dEstaing in the 1960s. Often misattributed to De Gaulle.,Balance of Payments in 2010 (US$bn),Source: Re-calculated by M. Guillen with data reported by BEA, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Central Bank of India, and Banco Central do Brasil.,Currency Allocation of ReservesUpper: total Lower: emerging & developing countries,Source: IMF.,Currency Allocation of Reserves(% of total),Source: IMF.,Official Gold Holdings (10/2011),Source: World Gold Council.,One ton of gold is worth about US$61 million.,Gold Reserves Per Capita (2010):,Foreign Currency Reserves + Gold minus External Debt in 2010,Source: CIA Factbook (map from Wikipedia).,Exchange Rates,The nominal exchange rate.The real exchange rate = /$ US inflation/EZ inflation.The effective or trade-weighted exchange rate = weighted average of exchange rates of home and foreign currencies, with the weight for each foreign country equal to its share in bilateral trade.,Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (September 2011).,Index 2000=100, three-month moving average,Source: /2011/10/greek-tradable-sector-odyssey.html,Source: Multipolarity: The New Global Economy (The World Bank, 2011).,Reserve Currency,Store of value.Medium of exchange.Unit of account.Determinants: GDP, trade, price stability, and financial strength, both internal and external.,Benefits to the Issuing Country,Convenience to its resident firms and individuals.Seigniorage (the “exorbitant privilege”): it allows running a large current account deficit and to accumulate debt at low interest rates. This is true during both boom and bust times.Geopolitical power, status, and prestige.,Costs to the Issuing Country,The seigniorage effect makes the currency appreciate, which hurts exports.Vulnerability to the actions of foreign holders of assets denominated in the reserve currency.Burden of responsibility and leadership.Requires openness to capital flows.,Source: Multipolarity: The New Global Economy (The World Bank, 2011).,Artist: Laura Gilbert. http:/www.securitiesdoc