为了追求乐趣而投资.doc

Investing For The Fun Of It为了追求乐趣而投资Investors flock to index funds because they are simple, inexpensive and often likely to generate higher returns than taking a chance on hot stocks, highflying money managers or a brother-in-laws tips.指数基金受到大批投资者追捧，因为它们简单易行、费用低廉，而且与投资热门股票、仰仗雄心勃勃的基金经理或是听从连襟的建议相比，它们通常能带来更多回报。The hitch: Passive is dull, as even its fans admit.但其中也有个小问题：被动型投资很无聊，这一点就连追捧者们也承认。That is one reason some investors put a little money aside to play the stock market.这就是有些投资者会拿点儿钱到股市赌一把的一大原因。John Miller, a partner in a Fayetteville, Ga., law firm, set up an account several years ago with about 5% of his investments and started buying individual stocks. Most of his investments are in index funds.佐治亚州费耶特维尔(Fayetteville)一家律师事务所的合伙人约翰米勒(John Miller)几年前拿出约5%的投资资金开立了一个账户，开始购买个股。他的资金大多用于投资指数基金。He placed a wager on Bank of America stock when prices were near financial-crisis lows, and won big. He also purchased shares in a solar-energy firm that he says fell about 85% before he sold.他在美国银行(Bank of America)股价接近金融危机低点时对该股下注，赚了个盆满钵满。他也买过一家太阳能公司的股票，他说，在他卖出股票之前，该股下跌了85%左右。Through it all, he enjoyed himself - without worrying that a disastrous bet would ruin his financial future.不过，尽管经历了这些起伏，他还是乐在其中他不担心损失惨重的赌注会葬送他的财务前程。Some people have fancy cars that they spend money on, says Mr. Miller, who is in his mid-30s. My wife has a budget for fun, I have a budget for fun.35岁左右的米勒说：“有些人会把钱花在豪车上。我妻子有逐乐预算，我也有逐乐预算。”Investing is serious business. Many Americans are in danger of falling short of accumulating enough money to retire in comfort and can ill afford to take unnecessary risks. Even people with more of a cushion dont enjoy throwing away money.投资是件严肃的事情。许多美国人面临无法攒够钱、过上舒适退休生活的风险，也无力承担不必要的风险。即便是拥有较多财务缓冲的人也不喜欢把钱白白扔掉。But play money accounts are popular, particularly among people who believe they have amassed enough wealth to meet their needs or are on track to reach their financial goals. These investors get the kind of kick from playing the market that others might get from collecting art or sky-diving. Some might even dabble in other assets, such as currencies or gold.但这类“逐乐投资”账户很流行，它们尤其受那些相信自己已经攒下足以满足需求的财富或者有望顺利实现财务目标的人追捧。“游戏投资”给这些投资者带来与艺术品收藏或跳伞类似的刺激。一些人甚至可能涉猎其他资产，比如货币或黄金。The pleasure can come from the prospect of a big gain, or the chance to demonstrate professional expertise or to have a hunch confirmed. Like gamblers heading off for a weekend in Las Vegas, many realize they likely will come up short in the long run. But unlike many gamblers, the savvier investors carefully limit their wagers.“逐乐投资”之所以有乐趣，可能是因为投资者憧憬获取高额回报，也可能是因为投资者可借机展示专业技能或印证预感。和周末前往拉斯维加斯的赌徒一样，许多人意识到从长远来看他们可能会输。但与许多赌徒不一样的是，这些投资者比较有头脑，会小心谨慎地限制他们的赌金。Some are ordinary investors, like Mr. Miller. Some are high-profile champions of passive investing, such as Burton Malkiel, an intellectual godfather of the index-fund movement, and Scott Adams, who has lampooned in his Dilbert cartoon fees charged by active managers. Unlike active funds run by human stock-pickers, index funds run on autopilot, holding a basket made up of virtually every security in an index, or market benchmark.这其中有些人是普通投资者，比如米勒。有些人是被动型投资的大赢家，比如指数基金运动的思想教父伯顿马尔基尔(Burton Malkiel)和在卡通作品呆伯特(Dilbert)中讽刺“积极型”基金经理所收费用的斯科特亚当斯(Scott Adams)。与由选股人运营的积极管理型基金不同，指数基金好似依靠自动驾驶仪运营，它们持有的一篮子资产覆盖了一个指数（即市场基准）下的几乎每一种证券。A lot of people, myself included, have something of a gambling instinct, says Mr. Malkiel, a senior economist at Princeton University and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, a classic argument against trying to beat the market.普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)资深经济学家、漫步华尔街(A Random Walk Down Wall Street)一书（是对试图跑赢大市的做法的经典批判）作者马尔基尔称：“包括我在内的许多人都有种想赌一把的冲动。”Most of Mr. Malkiels investments are in index funds and, at age 81, he expects his portfolio is largely destined for his heirs. But he uses about 10% of his investment assets to buy and hold individual stocks, which he regards as in some sense, a hobby.马尔基尔的大多数资金都投入了指数基金，现年81岁的马尔基尔估计，他的投资组合大多都会留给继承人。但他将10%左右的投资资产用于购买和持有个股，他说“从某种意义上说这是一种爱好”。Profit often is only one of many motives driving these investors. They also might want excitement, something to aspire to, validation of their instincts and intelligence, or some other psychological payoff, experts say.赚钱通常只是这些投资者的动机之一，除此之外还有许多其他动机。专家们表示，除赚钱之外，他们可能还想寻找刺激，追求理想，确证他们的天赋和智慧，或者寻求其他心理回报。That points to the hurdles index investing faces. The percentage of all the money in stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that is passively managed has doubled in a decade, according to Vanguard Group - but still represents only about a third of the $6.5 trillion in such funds total assets.这就令指数基金投资面临一些障碍。先锋集团(Vanguard Group)数据显示，投入被动管理型股票共同基金和交易所买卖基金的资金比例在10年内翻了一番但仍然仅占这类基金总资产（6.5万亿美元）的三分之一左右。Index investors can count on returns that track a specific benchmark, minus typically low fees. Active investors, by contrast, face a constant threat of underperformance - and often pay steep management or trading fees which make that the likeliest outcome.指数基金投资者可期望获得的是基金追踪特定基准股指所带来的回报减去费用（通常较低）。而积极型投资者则会一直面临跑输大盘的威胁而且通常要支付高额管理和交易费，从而使跑输大盘成为可能性最大的结果。Nonetheless, if a financial adviser suggests a broad, diversified fund, many investors react like someone told them they were going to live on spinach, says Meir Statman, a finance professor at Santa Clara University in California and an expert in behavioral finance, the study of how investors make decisions.不过尽管如此，加州 克拉拉大学(Santa Clara University)金融学教授、行为金融学（研究投资者如何决策）专家迈尔斯塔特曼(Meir Statman)表示，如果理财顾问建议客户投资广泛的多元化基金，许多投资者的“反应就像有人跟他们说日后要以菠菜为生一样”。Even investors who are financially secure are lured by the hope of a big payoff, Mr. Statman says. We want two things in life: One is not to be poor, and one is to be rich, he says.斯塔特曼表示，就连财务安全的投资者也向往获取高额回报。他说：“我们在生活中想要两样东西：一样是不贫穷，一样是富有。”Some investors say they find it easier to stomach putting most of their money into plain-vanilla index funds if they can actively trade with a small, safe amount, which allows them to balance the goal of managing risk with a desire to have the dice in their hand.一些投资者说，如果能把一小笔安全数量的资金用于积极型投资（从而使他们在实现风险管理目标和冒险赌一把的欲望之间取得平衡），他们会更容易接受将多数资金投入普通的指数基金。It is kind of boring to just put money away, says Joe Zawacki, who is 46 years old and runs consulting firm National Auditing Services, in Corunna, Mich. He used to trade individual stocks with about half his portfolio but was disappointed with the returns.46岁的乔扎瓦基(Joe Zawacki)在密歇根州科伦纳(Corunna)运营咨询公司National Auditing Services。他说：“只是攒钱有点无聊。”他曾把投资组合中一半左右的资金用于交易个股，但对回报感到失望。Mr. Zawacki now has about 90% of his investments in index funds, mostly the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, which charges annual fees of 0.05%, or $5 per $10, 000 invested. (Fees are higher for smaller investments.) Many active funds charge 20 times that much or more.扎瓦基目前将90%左右的资金投入指数基金，其中主要是先锋整体股市指数基金(Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund)，该基金收取0.05%的年费，也就是每投资10,000美元收取五美元费用。（投资规模较小的话费用要高一些。）许多积极管理型基金收取的费用是这一数额的20倍甚至更高。Early this year, Mr. Miller, the Georgia lawyer, started winding down his play-money account and decided to save more instead. He figures he probably didnt lose money overall, because of his Bank of America profits, but believes he would have done better in an index fund.今年年初，佐治亚州的律师米勒开始减少他的“逐乐账户”规模，决定增加储蓄。他估计自己总体来说应该没有赔钱，因为他投资美国银行股票赚到了钱，但他认为如果投资指数基金回报会更高。When youre in Vegas, when youre ahead, get out, he says. Thats what I did.他说：“在拉斯维加斯，当你赢了钱，就要适时退出，我就是这么做的。”Investors who have a play-money account, or want to start one, should first make sure they are setting aside enough to retire, experts say. That money should be in diversified, low-cost index funds, Mr. Malkiel says.专家们表示，拥有“逐乐投资”账户，或者想开立这类账户的投资者首先应该确保攒够养老金。马尔基尔说，养老的钱应该投向多元化、费用低的指数基金。For your serious retirement money, you dont gamble, he says.他说：“不应该把严肃的养老钱拿来冒险。”Here are other steps experts say play-money investors should take to keep their expectations realistic and their wagers within safe boundaries.专家们表示，“逐乐投资者”还应该采取其他一些措施来保持现实的期望值，并将赌注限制在安全的范围内。Understand Your Motives明确自己的动机Im not private-plane rich, says Mr. Adams, whose cartoon appears in about 2, 000 newspapers in 65 countries.亚当斯说：“我没有富到买得起私人飞机的程度。”亚当斯的卡通作品刊登在65个国家的大约2,000份报纸上。But the possibility of hitting the jackpot is one reason Mr. Adams sets aside about 5% of his investments to bet on individual stocks. (The other 95% is mostly in broad, low-cost funds, he says.)但亚当斯将5%左右的资金用于投资个股，原因之一是他不放弃中头奖的希望。（他说，其余95%的资金大多投入了多元化、费用低的基金。）Losing that money has no effect. But if something lucky happens, and it makes a lot of money, Id be happy, he says. I might buy something that I might not have thought of.他说：“赔掉这笔钱没有任何影响。但如果走运，能赚到一大笔钱的话，我会很开心。我也许会买些从来没想过要买的东西。”Investors can benefit from understanding what they get out of play money. That can help them figure out whether something else might satisfy that desire with less risk.理解能从“逐乐投资”中获得什么对投资者是有好处的。这能够帮助他们认识到有没有其他风险较低的东西能满足这种欲望。For some, stock-picking is a thrill. Researchers studying survey and trading data from German investors concluded that two types of people could find trading stocks entertaining: those who do it as a hobby and those who enjoy gambling.有些人会觉得选股很刺激。研究人员在分析了针对德国投资者的访谈和交易数据后得出的结论是，有两种人会认为炒股很有意思：把炒股当做爱好的人和喜欢赌博的人。The gamblers are motivated by a quest for arousal or an aspiration for riches, the researchers, Daniel Dorn of Drexel University and Paul Sengmueller of Tilburg University in the Netherlands, wrote in a 2009 paper titled Trading as Entertainment?进行此项研究的是德雷塞尔大学(Drexel University)的丹尼尔多恩(Daniel Dorn)和荷兰蒂尔堡大学(Tilburg University)的保罗森格缪勒(Paul Sengmueller)。2009年，他们在一篇题为“把交易当做娱乐？”(Trading as Entertainment?)的论文中写道，赌博者的“动机是追求刺激和渴望致富”。I get enjoyment out of winning on stocks. Its fun, says Michael McKay, a general contractor in Palatine, Ill. He uses about 5% to 8% of his investments to trade individual stocks such as Apple, A, P and Ford Motor.伊利诺伊州帕拉蒂诺(Palatine)的承建商迈克尔麦凯(Michael McKay)称：“买股票赚钱能让我获得享受。这很有意思。”他将5%到8%的投资资金用于交易苹果公司(Apple)、亚马逊(A)、P和福特汽车(Ford Motor)等个股。Mr. McKay previously devoted up to 30% of his investments to that type of trading, but pared back. It was becoming too much like gambling, he says. I have a company to run. I cant really dedicate the time.麦凯之前把多达30%的投资资金用于这类交易，但之后他减少了投资比例。他说：“这变得太像赌博了。我有公司要经营。我没法在这方面花太多时间。”Play money also can provide intellectual stimulation. Im probably wrong nine out of 10 times, Mr. Adams says. But when he is right, it feels good, he adds. You can create the illusion that youre smart.亚当斯说，“逐乐投资”还能提供智力刺激。亚当斯说：“我投资10次，大概有九次是错的。”但他补充说，当他做出正确的决策时，“感觉会非常好。你会产生一种自己很聪明的幻觉”。Prepare to Lose为赔钱做好准备In the late 1980s, Larry Swedroe had a hunch.20世纪80年代末，拉里斯韦德罗(Larry Swedroe)产生了一个预感。Mr. Swedroe, who is now director of research at Buckingham Asset Management, an investment advisory firm in St. Louis, believed that consolidation was coming to the banking industry.现任 路易斯(St. Louis)投资顾问公司Buckingham Asset Management研究主管的斯韦德罗当时相信银行业将进行整合。As the U.S. pursued a free-trade deal with its neighbors in the years that followed, he bought up shares in Jefferson National Bank in upstate New York, near the Canadian border, figuring it was a takeover candidate. At one point, he says the stake comprised about 10% of his portfolio.在之后的几年里，美国寻求与邻国签署自由贸易协议，于是他购买了位于纽约州北部靠近美加边境的Jefferson National Bank的股票，他估计这家银行有望被收购。他说，他持有的该银行股份一度占他投资组合的10%左右。His theory about mergers in the industry was right, but it didnt matter. The bank collapsed in 1993, and its onetime president was later convicted of fraud.他有关银行业兼并的理论是对的，但没有什么意义。这家银行1993年破产了，前行长后来被判犯有诈骗罪。Now, Mr. Swedroe has a simple message for those who think they might have a magic touch. You may get lucky. But I think the odds are highly against you, he says.如今，斯韦德罗要送给那些自认为有魔力的投资者一句简单的忠告。他说：“你是有撞大运的可能，但我认为可能性非常低。”Research backs him up. The average individual investor appears to underperform the market when picking stocks, even before the cost of trading is taken into account, according to a 2011 paper by Brad Barber, a professor at the University of California, Davis, and Terrance Odean, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley.相关研究支持了他的论断。加州大学戴维斯分校(University of California, Davis)教授布拉德巴伯(Brad Barber)及加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)教授特伦斯奥登(Terrance Odean) 2011年发表的一篇论文显示，一般散户投资者挑选的股票往往会弱于大盘，即使不考虑交易费用也是这样。Among the problems: Those investors trade too frequently and often are competing against institutional investors who have more information, the authors wrote. Mr. Barber says there is research based on data from the U.S., Taiwan and Finland that points to underperformance by retail investors.两位作者写道，其中的问题包括：这些投资者的交易过于频繁，而且他们常常要与掌握更多信息的机构投资者展开竞争。巴伯说，基于美国、中国台湾和芬兰数据的研究也显示，散户投资者往往会跑输大盘。He says he knows of no studies specifically about play-money investors, but sees no reason why their results should be different. Almost by definition, a play-money account is likely to be less diversified and therefore riskier.他说，据他所知，目前还没有专门针对“逐乐投资者”的研究，但他认为针对这类投资者的研究结果应该没什么不同。从定义来看，“逐乐”账户的多元化程度可能比较低，因此风险比较大。Many investors also are overconfident, experts say. Doctors, for instance, often dont understand that professional investors skills also are specialized, according to Mr. Swedroe. When a doctor talks about picking stocks, Mr. Swedroe says he responds, Would you let me operate on your patients?专家们表示，许多投资者还过于自信。斯韦德罗表示，比方说，医生通常不理解职业投资者也是具备专业技能的。斯韦德罗说，当一位医生谈论选股时，他会这样回应：“你会让我给你的病人做手术吗？”Play-money investors who want to find out if they are the exceptions should benchmark their trades against an appropriate index, he says. If investors are trading small-cap stocks, for instance, that means measuring against an index such as the Russell 2000, not the S&P 500.他说，“逐乐投资者”要想知道自己算不算特别出色，就应该参照适当的指数来衡量自己的交易。比方说，如果投资者交易的是小型股，这就意味着应该以罗素2000指数，而不是标准普尔500指数为参照。Benchmarking, done right, will be eye-opening for many play-money investors, Mr. Swedroe says. Youll stop doing it, because youll see it losing.斯韦德罗说，正确地参照基准股指会给许多“逐乐投资者”带来启发。他说：“你会放弃投资，因为你会看到自己在赔钱。”Set Clear Limits设定清晰的界限Win or lose, the key to using play money safely is to make sure it involves a sum the investor can live without.不论盈利还是亏损，安全使用“逐乐资金”的关键都是要确保投资者不需要靠这些钱来维持生活。Enjoy the fun of gambling and the thrill of the chase, but not with your rent money and certainly not with college education funds for your children, nor with your retirement nest egg, John Bogle, Vanguards founder, wrote in The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, published in 2007.先锋集团创始人约翰博格尔(John Bogle)在2007年出版的常识投资小书（The Little Book of Common Sense Investing)中写道：“享受赌一把的乐趣和追逐的兴奋吧，但不要用你租房子的钱，当然也不要动用你孩子的大学教育经费和你的养老储蓄。”Mr. Bogle wrote that what he called funny money should amount to no more than 5% of a persons investments. Some experts put the limit lower. Mr. Malkiel says it depends upon the investors individual circumstances.博格尔写道，他所说的“乐趣投资”应该不超过一个人投资总额的5%。一些专家设定的限额更低。马尔基尔说，具体比例取决于投资者的个人状况。Getting the proportion wrong is one risk. Another is that an investor will lose, for example, 5% of his or her money and think, I was so, so close. Let me take another 5%, Mr. Statman says. The temptation to keep on trying to win is common, he says, and some people find it hard to resist.投资比例错误是一大风险。斯塔特曼说，另一大风险是，比方说，一个投资者在损失了5%的资金后会想，“我离赚钱很近很近了。让我再投入5%吧。”他说，这种为求胜而不断尝试的诱惑很常见，有些人会很难抗拒这种诱惑。Investors also have to decide what kinds of investments they think are reasonable. Some are more comfortable investing play money in diversified mutual funds run by active managers rather than picking stocks themselves. Mr. Bogle, in an interview, called that strategy a mild form of the disease.投资者还要确定他们认为哪些投资种类是合理的。一些投资者更愿意将“逐乐资金”投入由积极管理型基金经理运营的多元化共同基金，而不是自己去选股。博格尔在一次采访中将这种策略称为“疾病的温和形态”。Mr. Bogle is prone to bouts of the disease himself. He has a few investments that arent in index funds, though he says they amount to nowhere near 5% of my assets. He is an investor, for instance, in an actively managed fund, the Bogle Small Cap Growth Fund, run by his son, John Bogle Jr.博格尔自己也容易犯病。他有一些指数基金之外的投资，不过他说，这些投资“在我资产中的比例远没有到5%”。比方说，他投资了他儿子小约翰博格尔(John Bogle Jr)运营的积极管理型基金博格尔小型股成长基金(Bogle Small Cap Growth Fund)。The younger Mr. Bogle says the fund aims to deliver good risk-adjusted returns and says he believes there is a place for that in many peoples portfolios. As of Thursday, the fund has generated annualized total returns of 9.14% over the past 10 years, after fees, compared with 9.22% for the Russell 2000, according to research firm Morningstar.博格尔的儿子说，该基金的目标是产生“良好的风险调整后回报”，他还表示，他相信“这只基金能在许多人的投资组合中找到位置”。研究公司晨星公司(Morningstar)的数据显示，截至10月17日，该基金过去10年撇除费用后的年化总回报率为9.14%，而罗素2000指数的回报率为9.22%。Remember - Its fo