毕业设计(论文)外文参考资料及译文-美元指数与上证指数的互动情况研究.doc

毕 业 设 计（论 文）外 文 参 考 资 料 及 译 文译文题目： 美元指数与上证指数的互动情况研究 学生姓名： 芮宇超 学 号： 0721116220 专 业： 金融学 所在学院： 龙蟠学院 指导教师： 熊发礼 职 称： 讲 师 2011年 3月 1日说明：要求学生结合毕业设计（论文）课题参阅一篇以上的外文资料，并翻译至少一万印刷符（或译出3千汉字）以上的译文。译文原则上要求打印（如手写，一律用400字方格稿纸书写），连同学校提供的统一封面及英文原文装订，于毕业设计（论文）工作开始后2周内完成，作为成绩考核的一部分。The dollar index rebound high oil prices are still adjustmentPhilip HDybvigAsiamoneyThe dollar index set last week since January 2005, single biggest weekly by Chinas rise, improve product prices impact, international crude oil prices started high adjustment. The dollar in pushing the contribution that high oil prices, accounting for seems not large U.S. crude oil futures contracts of 70% of speculative trading in which served as a more important role. As investors are the confidence to the dollar is insufficient, worry that their dollar assets devaluation. To prevent the dollar damage, the investor chooses to buy international crude oil futures avoid risk, therefore said the speculative funds are not easily to evacuate, short-term oil prices fell more unaccountable. Saudi Arabias sand bank of England (SABB) chief economist John Sfakianakis said on Tuesday, high oil prices and the correlation between the weak dollar may be fading, even a strong dollar, oil prices will continue to rise. Oil prices are still rising dollar upward Two recent weeks, the dollar index by expectations of further rate rises from the fed will boost, start out of 72 points, 13 out of a recent peak 74.12, this week though went back down a bit, but still in 73 above, dollars to major currencies have appreciation. The dollar recently due to the President, the fed, the Treasury Department published to intervene dollar speech and rebounded, should belong to technical rebound, whether at $reversal also look not to come out, should say $or no support of reverse. Modern international relations institute economy experts JiangChong told reporters. mercantile exchange in July the delivery of crude oil futures rose $plus 2.67 per barrel, barrel, up to $136.68 2%. Thursday July the delivery of crude oil futures fell $4.75 us $131.90 a barrel, barrel, drop to 3.5 per cent. Chinas 20 raise gasoline and diesel retail prices, crude oil futures dropping. Kitco account Dealers, a senior analyst at Jon - nader sahbaz of Jon Nadler) said: China has finally to high energy prices taken measures, the aim is to reduce demand and protect the environment. China for energy any decision has significant meaning.This week, oil futures prices rise and fall, but we are still highs, stood in the $130 above. Mainland LiuBingHong said: crude oil futures recent may face a month time adjustment, adjusting range in about 10%, however, this is just based on short-term rises quickly on the technical level of callback, its prolonged advance will continue. And this will be extended to all industrial chain, and finally result in resources, agricultural and other various commodity prices trend increasingly obvious. Can not stop the speculative The dollar is always called the high price of the culprit, now the dollar has uplink has not been seen oil echo performance. Investors have to think, the dollar in numerous caused by rising oil prices in the reason, what accounts for much weight? The dollar and negative correlation between the price of crude oil in the study does exist, because international crude oil futures is dollar denominated, but the negative relationship is not inevitable existence. Recent dollar has actually uplink, but oil prices are many reasons, so it seems a dollar in them is not important reasons. For energy from emerging markets of strong demand and international futures market financial speculation should be more important factors, especially the international speculation, recent data shows, speculative accounted for 70%. JiangChong said. So it seems, speculation about high oil contribution far greater than the dollar. The commodity futures trading commissions latest data shows, speculative trading accounts for U.S. crude oil futures contracts of 70%. Analytic personage points out, speculative funds are not easily to evacuate, short-term oil prices fell more unaccountable. Why futures market speculation not easily evacuate? This with the United States, the economy is weak dollar could long-term weakening has close relationship. Because of the dollar, aggravate the continuing decline of international commodity futures of speculation. As the us dollar is an international currency in the international economy is very extensive use, hold dollar assets of organizations and individuals to withstand numerous, they bring losses due to the dollar, in international futures market speculation, because of commodities are seen as will not be depreciated. International futures market investment in oil futures, this is the most prominent by oil, because of the particularity of the world economy into energy era, the economic development of petroleum energy with rigid demand. Although there are uplink $performance, but reversal has not possible. First of all American economy is not optimistic, and the subprime crisis has not eliminated and the financial sector is deteriorating, Americas trade, finance, double deficit was not solved, although because of the dollar, Americas trade Deficit has been improved, but the fiscal deficit has been improved, Secondly the international community, including the United States itself on the us economy lack of faith, and faith of the strong dollar is very important. At $just published in the book the crash will carry way, the dollar assets has not been international market value, many U.S. financial institutions is not willing to hold dollar assets. The euro, the yen assets started by international community is vastitude. JiangChong said: now hold dollar assets of the main is east and Asia countries: such as oil exporter, Saudi Arabia and the United States is due to its strategic alliance, so hold dollar, Japanese also is such, our country also holds a very much, because the dollar dollar assets, our assets have shrunk, China and the United States does not exist political alliances, still hold so many dollar assets is very unwise. Experts say dollar and oil prices negative correlation or weakened Since the beginning of 2007, the dollar against the euro since already were down almost 1/5, this is prompted oil prices within one year doubled one of elements. Since April, the euro/dollar hovering in 1.53-1.59, but prices still has soared during the same period, or to nearly 40%. Sfakianakis points out, even if dollars fluctuate narrowly, crude oil prices continue to rise. I think the weak dollar for determining the most affected like oil refinery strike in Alaska. Currently speculators as character with the influence of crude oil prices, is more important than anything. Sfakianakis says, because oil futures market within the so-called speculators to play a more about oil prices, make the dominant role between the dollar and oil prices reverse correlation was fading. He said: crude and of between $without relevance is on the increase. He also said: because by oil demand from China, India and the Middle East, so the driver and a dollar prices reverse correlation also appears to deviate from. These governments mostly to price subsidies to protect consumers from rising oil prices influence. When oil prices rose to 140 dollars a barrel near, we didnt see which had anticipated needs sharply reduce dx References: 1.Bagehot， W.，pseud. 1971，The Only Game in Town， Financial Analysts Journal 27，12-14，22.2.Garman,M.,1976,Market Microstructure, Journal of Financial Economics 3, 257-275.3 Li Xiyi; Ren Ruoen. Chinese joint-stock commercial bank performance evaluation J. Beijing University of Aeronautics (Social Sciences), 2005, (01).4.Left vibration and Philosophy. U.S. commercial bank performance management philosophy and practice J. Dalian Maritime University (Social Sciences), 2007 (1).中文翻译：美元指数反弹 油价仍高位调整菲利普H.Dybvig亚元杂志美元指数上周创下 2005 年1 月以来单周最大涨幅，受中国提高成品油价格影响，国际原油价格开始高位调整。美元贬值在推高油价中的贡献似乎并不大，占美国原油期货合约交易的70%的投机交易在其中担任了更加重要的角色。由于投资人对美元的信心不足，担心他们的美元资产贬值。为防止美元贬值带来的损失，投资者选择买入国际原油期货来规避风险，因此说投机基金不会轻易撤离，短期油价更难言下跌。沙特阿拉伯的沙地英国银行(SABB)首席经济学家John Sfakianakis 周二声称，高企的油价和疲软的美元之间的关联可能将消退，即使美元强势，油价也将继续上涨。美元上行油价仍高涨最近两周，美元指数受到来自美联储将加息的预期提振，开始走出 72 点位，13 日走出近期高点74.12，本周虽有小幅回落，但仍在73 以上，美元对主要货币都有升值。“美元近期由于美国总统、美联储、美国财政部门发表的要干预美元汇率的讲话而有所反弹，应该属于技术性反弹，美元是否就此逆转还看不出来，应该说美元逆转还是没有支撑的。”现代国际关系研究院经济所专家江涌对记者说。美元的上行，好像并没有影响到高烧的油价，本周三纽约商品交易所7 月份交割的原油期货上涨了2.67 美元，报收每桶136.68 美元，涨幅为2%。周四7 月份交割的原油期货下跌了4.75美元，报收每桶131.90 美元，跌幅为3.5%。中国20 日提高汽油与柴油零售价格，原油期货因此下跌。Kitco Bullion Dealers 资深分析师乔恩-纳德勒(Jon Nadler)表示：中国终于对居高不下的能源价格采取了应对措施，目的是降低需求并保护环境。中国对于能源方面的任何决定都有重大的意义。本周原油期货的价格有涨有跌，但仍然是高位运行，站在130 美元以上。大陆期货刘炳宏表示：“原油近期可能面临一个月时间的调整，调整幅度约在10%，然而这只是基于短期快速上涨进行的技术层面的回调，其长期涨势还将延续。而这将延伸到各个产业链，并最终导致资源、农产品等各种商品价格的上涨趋势日渐明显。”停不了的投机美元贬值总是被称为油价高涨的元凶，而今美元有所上行，却没有见到油价的呼应表现。投资者不得不思考，美元贬值在众多造成油价上涨的原因中，到底占多大分量？“美元与原油价格的负相关关系在研究中确实存在，因为国际原油期货是以美元计价的，但是这个负相关关系也不是必然存在的。近期美元确实有所上行，但是石油价格上涨的原因有很多个，如此看来美元贬值在其中不是重要原因。来自新兴市场对能源的强劲需求和国际期货市场的金融投机应该是比较重要的因素，尤其是国际投机，最近的资料显示，投机占到70%。”江涌说。如此看来，投机对高油价的贡献远远大于美元贬值。美国商品期货交