TopicsinInternationalEconomicsandFinance：在国际经济和金融问题.doc

Topics in International Economics and Finance (Spring 2012)lecture topics and readingsObjective: to provide coverage of key issues in global finance using appropriate analytical tools, including dynamic and general equilibrium methods; and in doing so to develop in students the capacity to apply these techniques to real world problems.There is no prescribed text for the whole course, but the following textbooks to be used selectively provide useful coverage:Sarno, L. and M. P. Taylor (2002), The Economics of Exchange Rates. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (1996), Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Cambridge MA: MIT Press.Allen, F. and D. Gale (2007), Understanding Financial Crises. Oxford University Press.Freixas, Xavier and Jean-Charles Rochet (2008), Microeconomics of Banking, MIT Press.Lecture Outline1. Foreign Exchange Markets (9 hours)Conditions for efficiency Sarno and Taylor (2002)a. Monetary model of exchange rate determinationb. Lucas (1982) model (flexible price general equilibrium)Some departures from efficiencya. Dornbusch model (sticky price small open economy) Empirical evidenceb. Rational bubbles (in Dornbusch model)M. Miller and P. Weller (2000) Currency Bubbles which affect fundamentals” Economic Journal, Vol. 100, pp.170-79c. Chartists and Fundamentalists; Bulls and Bears DeGrauwe, P. and M. Grimaldi (2006), The Exchange Rate in a Behavioural Finance Framework, Princeton University Press. Chap1 provides an excellent survey of the empirical literature.Corrado, L., M. MillerandL. Zhang (2007) Bulls, Bears and Excess Volatility: can currency intervention help? International Journal of Finance and Economics, vol. 12, issue 2, pp. 261-2722. Exchange rate crisis (10 hours)a. First Generation ModelTextbook expositions: Krugman and Obstfeld, International Economics, Ch. 17, appendix III, “The Timing of Balance of Payments Crises” (elementary).Obstfeld and Rogoff, Foundations of International Macroeconomics, Ch. 8, section 4.2. Garber and Svensson, “The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes”, in Grossman and Rogoff (eds.), Handbook of International Economics vol. 3.Agenor and Flood, “Macroeconomic Policy, Speculative Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises”, in van der Ploeg (ed.), Handbook of International Macroeconomics.Original journal articles:Krugman, “A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises”, Journal of Money Credit and Banking 1979 (reprinted in Krugman, Currencies and Crises, 1992).Flood and Garber, “Collapsing Exchange-Rate Regimes”, Journal of International Economics 1984.b. Second Generation modelTextbook expositions: Obstfeld and Rogoff, Foundations of International Macroeconomics, Ch. 9, section 5.4 Original journal articles: Obstfeld, Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features, European Economic Review, 1996.Sachs,J. A. Tornell and A. Velasco (1996), “The Mexican peso crisis: Sudden death or death foretold?”, Journal of International Economics, 41(3-4), 265-283.3. Global General Equilibrium (9 hours)Lectures:a. Modelling the World Economy Obstfeld and Rogoff, Chapter 1.3. A Two-Region World Economy and Chap 5.5 b. Global imbalances:i. Precautionary motive in emerging market economies.ii. Risk concentration, precautionary savings and global imbalances.iii. Asset price bubbles and global imbalances.Paper for 3b:Miller, M., P. Santos-Monteiro and L. Zhang (2011): “Eastern Caution, Western Exuberance and Global Imbalances”, mimeo, University of Warwick.Other papers which are relevant:Concentration of shocks: G.Mankiw (1986) “The equity premium and the concentration of aggregate shocks” Journal of Financial Economics, 17,211-219.Jeanne, Olivier (2007) “International Reserves in Emerging Market countries: too much of a good thing?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1: pp.1-55).Optional background readings on global imbalances: Wolf, Martin (2009). Fixing Global Finance.Student presentation and discussion:Broner, Fernando A. and Jaume Ventura (2010), “Rethinking the Effects of Financial Liberalization”, mimeo, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.4. Credit market imperfection and its macroeconomic impacts (9 hours)Aiyagari, S. Rao, (1994), “Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving”,Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, No. 3, pp. 659-684.Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro and John Moore (1997), “Credit Cycles”, Journal of Political Economy, 1997, vol. 105, no. 2.Korinek, Anton, (2009), “Systemic Risk-Taking: Amplification Effects, Externalities, and Regulatory Responses”, mimeo, University of Maryland.5. Banking and Financial Crises (10 hours)Student presentation of background paperBrunnermeier, Markus K. (2009), “Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 20072008”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1 ), 77100.Lecturesa. Financial panic as a “bank run”Diamond and Dybvig (1983) or Allen and Gale (2007).b. Moral Hazard in banking Hellman, T., K. Murdock and J. Stiglitz (2000) “ Liberalization, moral hazard in banking and prudential regulation: are capital requirements enough?” American Economic Review 90(1), 147-65c. Market concentration, adverse incentive and banking crises:Miller, Marcus, Lei Zhang, and Han Hao Li (2010), “Riding for a fall: monopoly banking with hidden tail risk”, mimeo, University of Warwick.Other relevant reading:Foster, Dean and Peyton Young (2008), The Hedge Fund Game: Incentives, Excess