麦肯锡最顶尖的项目管理PPT.ppt

1、,项目管理,行政细节,9:00-17:00 课间休息： 10:30-10:45, 15:00-15:15 午餐时间： 12:00-13:00 点心、茶水请到休息室自用 注意事项:上课时务请关闭手机，BP机 谢谢合作!,项目管理的PPT项目的定义The Definition of a Project,组织单位 Organization Unit,固定预算 Fix Budget,固定时间 Fix Time,按一定的技术标准 Quality Assurance,资源的利用 Resource Utilization,交付结果 Delivery Result,项目特点Specifications of

2、a Project,a) 具体的起始时间（ The exact starting time) b) 具体的终止日期（ The exact finishing date) c) 严格定义的最终目标（The exact definition of the final goal) d) 只发生一次（Only one time) e) 包含有时间（T），质量（Q）和成本（C）的详细计划（Including Time, Quality and Cost) f) 有具体的结果（The exact Result) g) 随时都具有的风险性（Full of the Risk),示例Case Discussio

3、n,为中学生设计一种新型的寻呼机，计划于1995年12月推向市场。 Design a new BP for the middle school student, It is planned to be into the market in December, 1995.,示例Case Discussion,使用计算机编写备忘录 Using the computer to edit the RAM,重要提示：项目必须满足其所有特征Importance: All the project specifications MUST be 100% satisfied,判断哪些活动属于项目Which on

4、e is project,Y,N,Y,Y,N,N,计划出国做商务旅行 Plan a business trip to another country,打电话 Make a telephone call,组装一台新型计算机 Assemble a new model computer,盖新楼 Erect a building,面试应聘者 Interview applicants,制作家具 Produce furniture,兴建水库 Establish a reservoir,Y,N,Y,Y,Y,N,Y,修理汽车 Repair a car,设计一门新课程 Design a new curricul

5、um,组织对计划进行讲评 Organize a program review,与成功企业进行比较并学其优势 Benchmark successful enterprises,使用杀虫剂 Apply pesticide,开发新软件 Develop a new software,判断哪些活动属于项目 Which one is project,什么是“管理”（What is called “Management”),能够按实际情况自行设计从“目标”的选定，到“资源”的利用，通过采用不同的“计划”和“监控”的各种工具，达到满意“结果”的整个系统叫“管理”。操作这个系统的人叫“经理人”。 A perso

6、n, or a group, or a team who is able to set up the confirmation of the“Goal” to the utilization of the “Resource” through the different tools of the “Plan” work not in the WBS is outside the scope of the project.,WBS表（工作分解表）,样机参展 New Machine in Exhibition,1.生产样机 1.Production,2.运输样机 2.Transportation,

7、3.布置展台 3.Booth Decoration,4.资料归类 4.Brochures,6.展机结束 6.Finish,5.人员安排 5.Service Arrangement,11 设计 Design,12 生产 Production,13 调试 Testing,21 联络运输公司 Transportation,22 安全指令 Safety Policy,31 设计 Design,32 装修 Decoration,33 效果 Result,41 分送归类 Filing,42 布置 Ordering,51 展台值班名单 Names on duty,52 专题会议 Special meetin

8、g,53 访客接待 Visitor greeting,61 运输公司 Transportation,62 安全 Safety,图表式的WBS WBS CHART,写一本间谍小说 Spy Novel,背景材料的搜集 Information Collection,故事大纲 Content,故事写作 Writing,出版商 Publisher,图书馆 Library,采访 Collections,初步构思 Primary Frame,精练构思 Refined Frame,第一章 Chart 1,。,出版商的了解 Publisher Introduction,样稿送审 Final Approve,美国

9、-苏联 关系 其他间谍 故事 刊登有当 前事件的期 刊 华盛顿和莫 斯科地图,访问情报 机构 访问军事 部门 访问民事 机构 联邦 调查局 采访当地 警察,Us-Russia Relation Other Spy Stories Resent magazine Washington-Masco,Visit Information Office Visit Military Visit FBI Visit Local Police,WBS的一些经验数据 Experienced Data of WBS,（1）一般不超过5层，如超过即外包。 Do not over the 5th layer, su

10、bcontracting is needed if it is over. （2）以80小时为界线，或80小时/周为界线。 Based on 80 hours as a Work package, or 80 hours/week as the same. （3）也可用交付（Deliverable)、产品零件(Component)、阶段(Phase)、地区(Area)、主要任务(Major Task)、功能(Function)来划分。 Also can be divided into deliverable, component, phase, area, major task 散点图 Wor

11、k-flow/Scatter diagrams; 帕累托图 Pareto charts; 因果图 Cause and effect diagrams; 直方图 Histogram; 控制图 Control charts; 检查表 Check sheets;,控制图Control Charts,USL,UCL,X,LCL,LSL,控制极限 UCL/LCL 规格极限 USL/LSL 失控 Out of Control *超出控制界限 *七点运行法则 Rule of seven,帕累托图Pareto Diagram,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,100 (%),90,80,70,

12、60,50,40,30,20,10,0,转动不正常,噪音,抖动,压力,车轴缝隙,车厢颤动,其他,累计百分比,缺陷出现次数,项目质量管理抽样法PQM Sampling Methods,定义：在不可能100%地对全部的产品或服务检验时，利用所抽取的样本对产品或过程进行检验，对这批产品的质量进行评估，以便对这批产品作出合格与否，能否接受的判断。 Definition: is the method of determining the value of a product or service when it is not practical to examine the entire or tota

13、l number of products or services produced.,项目质量管理抽样法PQM Sampling Methods,属性抽样法：记入抽查的样品是否存在特性的情况，如：重量，大小，功能等。 Attributes Sampling, the presence or absence of a characteristic (weight, size, functions, etc) is noted in each of the units inspected. 结论：“一致性”的数量 Conclusion: “The number of the “leveling”,

14、项目质量管理抽样法PQM Sampling Methods,变量抽样是对某一属性的特点和特性在一定数值范围内变化的分析，如：分钟，长度等的范围内。 Variable Sampling, a variable is a characteristic or property which can be measured and the measurement expressed in terms of some continuous scale, e.g. time in seconds, minutes or hours; length in feet, meters, etc. 结论：“一致性”

15、的程度 Conclusion: The degree of the “leveling”,项目质量特性Project Quality Characteristics,可生产性（技术能力） Productivity (Technology required) 可使用性（使用的方便程度） Usability (Effort expended to use) 可靠性（MTBF-产品故障之间平均时间周期） Reliability (Mean-Time-Between-Failure: MTBF) 可维护性（MTTR-维修之间的平均时间周期） Maintainability (Mean-Time-To-

16、Repair: MTTR) 可获得性（产品性能概率） Availability (Probability of performance) 可操作性（预期的、有条件的使用） Operability (Expected conditional use) 灵活性（预期的可变用途） Flexibility (Expected variable use) 社会接受度（环境和安全） Social Acceptability (Environment and safety) 可承受能力（由于质量原因对产品的退回） Affordability (Return for quality required),资源R

17、esource,人 (People) 设施 (Facility) 设备 (Equipment) 流动资金 (Cash Flow) 原材料 (Raw Material) 信息（ Information),成本估算精确范围Cost Estimation Accuracy,量级方法： -25%-+75% Estimation: 预算： -10%-+25% Budgeting: 最后预算： -5%-+10% Final Budgeting:,成本估算Cost Estimation,估算应该建立在WBS的基础上以增加精确度 Estimation is based on the WBS in order

18、to increase the accuracy 估算应该由实际承担那个工作包的人来进行 Estimation should be operated by the work package responsible people 要增加估算的精确度，合理使用历史资料很关键 History record reference is very important for increasing the accuracy 除非是因应该核准的变更,否则成本基准(以及时间基准、范围基准、资源基准)应该保持不变 The cost baseline (time baseline, scope baseline,

19、resource baseline) should not be changed unless this change is approved 随着项目的进行，计划应随时加以修正 The plan should be adjusted along with the project executing 在发生成本问题的时候,要采取纠正行动 The proper correction should be applied when the cost has the problem 项目经理不能被动地接受管理层在时间和成本上的需求，而应该分析项目的实际需求，实事求是地作出估算，并解决与管理层之间的分歧

20、 The project manager is supposed not passively to accept the requirements of time and cost from line managers, he/she should analysis the actual requirement of the project, make a true estimation, and try to solve the differences between the line manager and he/she,成本管理概念Cost Management Ideas,以往的概念

21、-“按时,在预算之内!” 当前的观念 -“顾客满意” -经常协商以及沟通,项目成本Project Cost,固定成本与变动成本 Fixed Cost vs. Variable Cost 直接成本和间接成本 Direct Cost vs. Indirect Cost 可控制成本与不可控制成本 Controllable Cost vs. Uncontrollable Cost 沉没成本 Sunk Cost -历史上已经花费的成本 -在项目后续决策中应该不予考虑,挣值法概念Frances concept of earning value,挣值是基于以下三个基本概念： The earning valu

22、e is because of the following three pieces of basic conception: PV，（计划值），或计划内工作的估算成本 （BCWS）；Budget Cost of Work Schedule. EV,（挣值），或已完成工作的估算成本 （BCWP）Budget Cost of Work Performed. AC,（实际成本），或已完成的工作的实际成本支出（ACWP）Actual Cost of Work Performed.,EV解释EV explaining,迄今为止，项目A按计划应已完成计划值 $10,000的工作量，但是，实际完成的工作

23、量只有85%（ $8，500值的工作量）。 $8，500值的工作量便是该任务的挣值（EV）。 Up until now, project A should already $10, 000 of hitting the target etc. on schedule, work load of value, but, Work finished actually Quantity has only 85%( $8, 500 the work load of value). $8, 500 work load of value earning value of task this( EV).,其

24、它挣值概念Other EV Concepts,BAC：项目总成本预算 BAC（Budgeted At Completion）：How much is this project to cost in total ? ETC：在项目进展过程中的某一点来估算到项目全部完成还需要多少成本。 ETC（Estimated To Completion）：Given what we know today, how much more will if cost us to complete the project? EAC：在项目进展过程中的某一点来估算项目的总成本。 EAC（Estimated At Comp

25、letion）：Given what we know today, how much will the project actually cost in total? TCM:传统管理 Traditional Control Management： 偏差（Variance）=计划（Plan）- 实际（Actual）,项目成本管理中的几个重要公式 Several Important Formulations In Project Cost Management,CV（成本偏差）=EV-AC CV案例：迄今为止已完成 $8,500值的工作量（EV），但是其实际成本支出是$9,000（AC）。所以，

26、实际支出比原先估算多支出了$500（CV）！ CV（Cost Variance）=EV-AC Interpretation of CV：$8,500 worth of work (EV) has been completed, but it cost, in fact, $ 9,000 for the work (AC). So, it had cost $500 more than originally thought (CV) it would!,项目成本管理中的几个重要公式 Several Important Formulations In Project Cost Management

27、,SV（进度偏差）=EV-PV SV案例：迄今为止，应该完成A任务$10，000成本估算值的工作量，但是实际完成了$8，500值的工作量（EV）。因此，落后于进度$1，500值的工作量（SV） SV（Schedule Variance）=EV-PV Interpretation of SV: As of today, $10,000 worth of work on task A was to have been finished, $8,500 worth of work (EV) has actually been done. So, it is behind schedule by $1

28、,500 worth of work (SV).,实现价值管理EVMEarned Value Management,PV,BAC,$,Today,Time,AC,EV,PV:计划价值 Planned Value BCWS EV:实现价值 Earned Value BCWP AC:实际成本 Actual Cost ACWP,成本变差(CV)=EV-AC 进度变差(SV)=EV-PV,项目成本管理中的几个重要公式 Several Important Formulations In Project Cost Management,CV%（成本偏差百分比）= CV/EV SV%（进度偏差百分比）= S

29、V/PV CV%（Cost Variance Percentage）= CV/EV SV%（Schedule Variance Percentage）= SV/PV,50/50法则The 50/50 Rule,是为了解决主观估算工作完成量的问题 某项任务只要开始，便为此计入PV值的50%为其EV 待该任务结束后，便为此计入PV值的另50%EV 重要假设：这些任务的假设条件一致 Established to overcome the problem of making subjective estimates of how far along we are on a task. Upon beg

30、inning a task, charge 50% of its PV, as an EV into its account. When the task is finally completed, charge the remaining 50% of its PV as an EV into its account. Important Assumption：All tasks being examined are of roughly the same dimension. These are the 3 rules for credited the completion of work

31、 for Earned Value computation.,50/50法则 The 50/50 Rule,50/50法则有三种类型： 0/100：这是基于一项任务只有全部完成后才有价值的假设。它是较保守的法则。 20/80：这是较小心的法则，但没有0/100来得保守。 50/50：较通用表示项目进展程度的法则 The 3 rules most commonly used： 0/100 rule：The assumption is that the task is considered to have no value until it is completed. A conservative approach. 20/80 rule：This method is very cautious, but is less conservative than 0/100. 50/50 rule：Probably the most popular method of show