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Titleof
MethodologyNotes
OilIndustryandMarketsDivision
August2024
REFININGMARGINDOCUMENTATIONINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY-OILMARKETREPORT
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Contents
Introduction(updated) 3
Refininghubs 4
Refineryconfigurationandproductyields(updated) 4
Crudegrades(updated) 5
Petrochemicalmargins 6
Emissioncosts(updated) 7
Energyconsumptioncosts(updated) 7
Refinerymargincalculation(updated) 9
ChangescomparedtoJuly2022model(updated) 9
REFININGMARGINDOCUMENTATIONINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY-OILMARKETREPORT
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Introduction(updated)
TheOilIndustryandMarketsDivisionoftheInternationalEnergyAgencyhaspublishedrefinerymarginssinceJune1992initsmonthlyOilMarketReport.In2022,theIEArefiningmarginscalculationwasrevised
(Methodology2022)
toprovideanindicativesiteaveragemarginbasedonthreecriteria:
-Geography,namely:Mediterranean,NorthWestEurope,Singapore,theUSGulfCoast,andtheUSMidcontinent
-Crudeprocessed:selectionbasedontypicalregionalcrudeslate,accessibility,APIandsulphurcomposition
-Refinerycomplexityprofile:Hydroskimming,catalyticcracking,cokingandpetrochemicalsintegration
ThisnotedetailsthenewAugust2024methodology
(Figure1)
thatintegrates:
-theutilitycostsontopoftheexistingcalculationsuchasnaturalgas,refineryfuelgas,LPG,fueloil,electricity,petroleumcoke,importedsteam
-anewyieldstructurebasedonempiricaldata
-somepricesadjustments
Toavoiddoublecounting,initialenergyuseassumptionsandhydrogenneedscalculationshavebeenremovedfromthenewprocess.Theobjectiveistoprovideamorerealisticrefiningmargindrivenbythecommoditymarket.
Inordertogettheutilitiesdata,thesourcethathasbeenchosenistheIEAWorldEnergyStatistics.Thiscountry-leveldatasetiscalculatedfromtheannualsubmissionbytheOECDmembers.Itcontainsthethroughputandtheconsumptionofalltypesofenergyquotedaboveonacountrylevel.
IEArefinerymarginsremainstrictlyindicative,however,anddonotincludethefullspectrumofothernon-energyvariablecosts(suchaschemicalsorcatalysts),capitalexpendituresormanhourscosts.
ThesemarginsshouldbereferencedasIEAGlobalIndicatorRefineryMargins.Onthechartsandtables,referencedinIEApublications,thesourceshouldbeidentifiedasIEA/ArgusMediaGroupprices.
REFININGMARGINDOCUMENTATIONINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY-OILMARKETREPORT
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Figure1:IEArefinerymarginscalculationworkflow
Refininghubs
Fornow,theIEAwillcontinueassessingrefinerymarginsforfiveregions,includingonlySingaporefromEastofSuezrefininghubs.
NorthwestEurope
MediterraneanEurope
USGulfCoast
USMidcontinent
Singapore
Refineryconfigurationandproductyields(updated)
Twotothreetypesofrefineryconfigurationsareselectedperregion,basedonthecharacteristicsofexistingrefinerycapacity.Forexample,cokingfacilitiesarenotverycommoninNorthwestEurope,whilehydroskimmingrefineriesarerareintheUS.
Refineryconfigurationbyregion
Hydroskimming
Cracking/
Hydrocracking
Coking
Petrochemicalcomponent
NWEurope
X
X
X
Mediterranean
X
X
USGulfCoast
X
X
USMidcontinent
X
X
Singapore
X
X
REFININGMARGINDOCUMENTATIONINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY-OILMARKETREPORT
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Ourmainpurposeistotrackahypotheticalaveragerefinery,basedonprevailingcrudedietsandtypicalproductoutputsineachrefiningcentre.Yieldstakeintoaccountbothlong-termstructuralchangesandtheimpactondemandandrefineryoperations/productconfigurationsandwillbereassessedonanannualbasis.
Initially,themethodologywasdivertingfromsoftware-simulatedrefineryyieldswherethespecifiedconfigurationandcrudegradedrivetheoutputs.Themethodologynowimplementssomeempiricalfeaturestocalculatetheyields.Forsomeregions,theyieldsarenowadjusteddependingontheavailabledata.Forinstance,USGCandUSMCyieldsareobtainedfromU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA)publications.NorthwestEuropeandMediterraneancracking/hydrocrackingrefineryyieldsarebasedonrefineryinputandoutputdatafromtheIEA’sMonthlyOilStatistics,withadjustmentsforsweetandsourcrudegrades.SingaporerefinerymarginsarebasedonaverageyieldstatisticsforseveralAsiancountries,wherereliabledatasetsareavailable.
Observedproductyieldsaresimplifiedtoincludeonlymajortradedproducts.
Refiningcrudeoilusuallyresultsinavolumetricexpansionasproductscomingoutoftheprocess,andingeneral,productsusedinvarioussectors,tendtobelighterthancrudeoil.Italsoresultsinlossesassulphur,hydrogen,andothernon-hydrocarbongases,water,andvariousimpuritiesareremovedintherefiningprocess.Weusethedifferenceindensitiesofastandardproductbasketandthegivencrudeoiltypetocalculatethevolumetricexpansion.Calculatedvaluesofsulphurremovedareusedtoestimateprocessinglosses.
ForUSrefineries,weassumeaneutralstandingwithregardstotherenewablefuelobligations.ThismeansthatanaverageUSrefineryisassumedneithertohaveadeficitnorexcessofRenewableIdentificationNumbers.
Theyieldtableisavailable
below.
Crudegrades(updated)
Insteadoftyingrefinerymargincalculationstoaspecificgrade,ournewmethodologyisbasedontypesofcrude.Weconsiderlightsweet,mediumsourandheavysourgrades,whichmaybeachronologicalcompositeofseveralcrudegradesthatreflectevolvingcrudeoilsupplyandtradedynamics.Forexample,SingaporelightsweetgradeiscomposedofTapisquotesuntilmid-2019andthenreplacedbyWTIquotesonacostandfreight(CFR)Singaporebasis.Wehavesimilardevelopmentsinproductpriceswhere,forexample,differentdieselorgasoilquotesareconcatenatedtoformacontinuoustimeseriesofdieselprices.Ourcrudeoil,refinedproducts,freightandnaturalgascompositepriceserieshavebeendevelopedinconsultationwithleadingenergyandcommoditypricereportingagencyArgus,ourmarketdataprovider.
Crudetypeswithrespectivegrades
NWElightsweet
NorthSeaDated
NWEmediumsour
ArgusBrentSour
MEDlightsweet*
SaharanBlend
MEDmediumsour*
BasrahMedium
USGClightsweet
WTI
USGCmediumsour
Mars
USGCheavysour*
WCS
REFININGMARGINDOCUMENTATIONINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY-OILMARKETREPORT
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USMClightsweet
WTI
USMCheavysour*
WCS
Singaporelightsweet*
WTI
Singaporemediumsour
Dubai
Singaporeheavysour*
BasrahHeavy
*Compositetypes,precededbyoneormoreothercrudequotes
Petrochemicalmargins
Toquantifythecontributionfromintegratedpetrochemicaloperations,wehaveintroducedasimplifiedpetrochemicalmargincomponentforNorthwestEuropeandSingapore.Itassumesthatnaphthaproducedintherefineryisusedasfeedstockinanintegratedcracker(exceptforvolumesdivertedtogasolineproduction).By-producthydrogenisaccountedforas“free”hydrogensupplyforrefineryusesandisreflectedinsavingsonnaturalgaspurchasesforpetrochemically-integratedrefineries.
Figure3.Petrochemicalmargincomponents
REFININGMARGINDOCUMENTATIONINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY-OILMARKETREPORT
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Emissioncosts(updated)
CarbondioxideemissionsfromhydrogenproductionareaggregatedwiththeemissionsfromrefineryenergyconsumptionandusedasthebasisforcalculatingrefineryemissionallowancecostsfortheNorthwestEuropeandMediterraneanrefininghubs.TheEuropeanEnvironmentAgency’s(EEA)emissionstradingdataareusedforhistoricalcalculations.Wemodel2022emissionsandfreeallocationsbasedonourthroughputforecastand2021emissionsintensity.Thiswillbeupdatedfor2022aftertheEEApublishesthedatain2Q23.
Margintype
CO2emissions(kg/bbl)
NWEuropelightsweethydroskimming
7
NWEuropelightsweetcracking
14
NWEuropemediumsourcracking
26
Mediterraneanlightsweethydroskimming
7
Mediterraneanlightsweetcracking
15
Mediterraneanmediumsourcracking25
Thefollowingtablesummarisesfinalyieldsusedformargincalculationsandemissioncostparameters.
IEAGlobalIndicatorRefineryMarginYieldsandCostParameters2023
LPGNaphthaGasolineJet/KeroDieselHeatOilLSFOHSFOPetcokeTotal
NWEurope
LightsweethydroskimmingLightsweetcracking
Mediumsourcracking
Mediterranean
LightsweethydroskimmingLightsweetcracking
Mediumsourcracking
USGulfCoast
LightsweetcrackingMediumsourcracking
coking
Heavysour
USMidwest
Lightsweet
Heavysour
Lightsweet
crackingcoking
Singapore
cracking
MediumsourcrackingHeavysourcoking
6.0%7.0%7.0%
3.6%
4.2%7.0%
7.0%7.0%10.0%
10.0%7.0%
5.6%6.3%7.0%
7.0%
6.0%8.0%
20.0%28.0%23.0%
6.1%
8.5%8.0%
4.0%3.9%0.0%
1.0%0.0%
14.8%
20.7%
21.3%
44.0%41.7%43.0%
47.6%50.0%
15.4%
13.3%
8.7%
26.1%
23.2%
28.0%
20.0%28.0%25.0%
12.0%12.0%7.7%
30.7%
27.2%
26.3%
10.1%
11.7%8.0%
25.2%27.3%30.0%
25.7%24.9%
10.0%7.0%10.0%
6.0%7.0%
18.1%
19.2%
27.0%
11.1%
12.2%
12.0%
7.0%7.0%14.3%
28.0%14.0%
0.0%
0.1%
16.4%14.3%
5.2%6.3%3.0%
3.7%4.6%
34.5%12.4%
0.0%
4.5%0.0%
0.0%
8.0%
0.0%
14.3%
13.2%
14.4%
11.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%17.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%17.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.0%
2.0%
7.4%
0.0%
0.0%10.0%
0.0%0.0%
0.0%
0.0%7.0%
0.0%
14.1%0.0%
100.0%102.0%102.0%
100.0%101.2%101.9%
102.0%100.7%104.0%
102.0%103.5%
102.0%101.5%104.1%
Copyright@2024IEA-AllrightsReserved.
Energyconsumptioncosts(updated)
Inthenewmethodology,theutilityconsumptioncostsarenowincludedintherefinerymargincalculation.
REFININGMARGINDOCUMENTATIONINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY-OILMARKETREPORT
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Themarginalimpactofenergycostsovertherefinery’sgrossmarginisdrivenby:
-Theaverageenergyconsumptionbybarrelofcrudeprocessed
-Theregionaldailypricebyutility
GiventhattheWorldEnergyStatisticsgranularityisbasedonacountrylevel,alistofselectedrepresentativecountries(figurebelow)hasbeenchosentogettheMarginalEnergyConsumption(MJ/blofcrudeprocessed)byregion.
Nationaldatausedasthebasisformodellingrefineryenergycosts
NorthwestEurope
Mediterranean
Singapore
USGulfCoast
USMidcontinent
Hydroskimming
Ireland
Ireland
Korea
N/A
N/A
CatalyticCracking
France/Germany/
Belgium/Netherlands/Finland
Italy/Greece/
Turkiye/Hungary/Spain
Korea
US
US
Coking
N/A
Hungary
Korea
US
US
Source:IEAWorldEnergyStatistics.
Theselectionbycountryisbasedonthenumberofavailablerefineries,theirconfigurationandtheirlocation.Forexample,IrelandisoneoftheonlyEuropeancountriesintheOECDthatpossessesonerefinerythatisconfiguredashydroskimming(HSK).ThisiswhyitisusedforNWEHSKandMEDHSKutilitycostscalculation.Inthemeantime,HungaryisalsoaparticularcasewheretheonlyoperationalrefineryusesaDelayedCoker.
Oncethecountriesareselectedbyregion,aweightedaverageiscalculatedtogetthemarginalconsumptionbyenergyinMJbybarrelofcrudeprocessed(tablebelow).
MarginalEnergyConsumptionbyregion(MJ/blofcrudeprocessed)
Energy\Region
NWE
MED
SING
US
NATGAS
56.6
92.0
62.0
187.9
FUELGAS
206.9
247.2
179.7
114.9
ETHANE
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
LPG
11.1
12.7
3.5
1.1
FUELOIL
14.3
16.4
3.0
0.0
ELECTRICITY
28.2
31.9
49.0
32.5
PETCOKE
27.6
29.3
9.7
60.1
IMPORTEDSTEAM
11.0
4.0
1.2
9.2
TOTAL
355.8
433.5
308.1
405.8
Source:IEAWorldEnergyStatistics2022data
Thefirststepistogetthemarginalconsumptionbyenergy,thesecondstepistochooseanadequatepriceforeachutility(tablebelow).MostofthepricescomefromArgusMediaGroup,thefewexceptionsthatareprovidedbyBloombergconcernpricesthatarenotavailablefrom2010to2020.
Mappingbetweenenergytypeandselectedprice
Energytype
Pricetype
NWE
MED
SING
US
NaturalGas
NaturalGas
TTF
PVB
LNGNortheastAsia
Nymex
FuelGas
LPG
PropanecoasterNWE
PropanecoasterMED
PropaneArgusfareast
PropaneMtBelvieuLST
LPG
LPG
PropanecoasterNWE
PropanecoasterMED
PropaneArgusfareast
PropaneMtBelvieuLST
FuelOil
HSFO
3.5%S380cstcargoNWE
3.5%S380cstcargoWMED
Fueloil3.5%S380cstcargoSING
3.0%SbargeUSGC
Petcoke
Petcoke
x
PetCokeTurkey5.5%S
PetCokeIndia4.5%S
PetCokeUSGC6.5%S
Electricity
Electricity
FrenchOTC
SpanishOTC
JEPX
PowerPJMWest
ImportedSteam
NaturalGas
TTF
PVB
LNGNortheastAsia
Nymex
Source:ArgusMediaGroup,Bloomberg
Oncethemarginalconsumptionbyenergyandthepricesareobtained,theTotalMarginalEnergyCostbycountryiscalculatedfollowingthemathematicalrelationship:
REFININGMARGINDOCUMENTATIONINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY-OILMARKETREPORT
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TotalMarginalEnergycostx(us$/bl)=
Withxcountry,ithetypeofenergy.
ThemainadvantageofthismethodoIogyresidesinthequaIityofthedataset.TheIEAspendsaIotoftimeandresourcesonthedataconsoIidationinordertoprovidetheWorIdEnergyStatistics.AIso,thedatasetisbasedondataprovidedbytheOECDmemberswhichmakesthisapproachempiricaIandnottheoreticaIanymore.
However,afewdownsidesremaininthismethodoIogy:
-ThegranuIarityisbyyearandtheIastdataavaiIabIeisoftentwoyearsbeforepubIication
-ThereareapproximativeassumptionsasitisbasedonacountryIeveI.ThepooIbycountryimpIiesthatmanyreinerieswithdifferentconigurations,crudeassays,Iocationsandmarketsareinthesamebucket.WhichmeansthattwodifferentreineryconigurationscanhavethesamemarginaIenergycostdespitethedifferentoperationaIconditions,crudeprocessedormarketshared.ItcanresuItinanenergycostoverestimation
-TheIackofinformationregardingthenaturaIgasrequiredforhydrogenproductionviasteammethanereformingforsomecountries.ThispartwiIIbeimprovedwiththeIEA’sEnergyDataCentreinordertocIarifywhatisbehindthenaturaIgasenergylow
Refinerymargincalculation(updated)
OncetheyieIds,thepricesandaIIthecostsreIatedobtained
(Figure1)
,thereinerymarginiscaIcuIatedasfoIIowed:
Refinerymarginx,y,z
=Σ(yieldi,x,y,z×pricei,x,y,z)一crudepricex,y一Freightcostx,y一co2taxx,y,z一TotalMarginalEnergycostx
Withxgeography,ycrude,zprofileandiproduct.
ChangescomparedtoJuly2022model(updated)
WhatchangedcomparedtoJuIy2022modeIisthe:
-AdditionofthemarginaIenergycost
-RevisionoftheyieIdsstructurebasedonanempiricaIapproach
-Substitutionofsomepricesthatwereconsideredoutdatedornotadaptedtothemarket
Eachregion’ssensitivityrespondeddifferentIytothethreemainchanges.
TheenergyassessmentunderIinesthedisparitiesbetweenthedifferentregionofthegIobe(seetabIebeIow).NorthwestEurope,MediterraneanbasinandSingaporeseetheIargestimpacttomargins,giventhatenergycostsarehigherhere.Furthermore,thischangeinthemethodoIogyunderscoresthesigniicantcostadvantagethattheUSAenjoysovertherestoftheregions,giventhatnaturaIgasandLPGaresigniicantIycheaper.
REFININGMARGINDOCUMENTATIONINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY-OILMARKETREPORT
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MarginalEnergyCostofaMediumSourFCCprofilebyregion($/blofcrudeprocessed)
Energy\Region
NWE
MED
SING
US
NATGAS
0.51
0.81
0.59
0.35
FUELGAS
1.88
2.37
1.84
0.69
ETHANE
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
LPG
0.10
0.12
0.04
0.01
FUELOIL
0.11
0.12
0.02
0.00
ELECTRICITY
0.85
0.73
1.04
0.19
PETCOKE
0.09
0.09
0.03
0.13
IMPORTEDSTEAM
0.10
0.04
0.01
0.02
TOTAL
3.63
4.29
3.57
1.39
Source:IEAMonthlyOilStatistics,IEAWorldEnergyStatistics,EIA,ArgusMediaGroup
Thenexttableshowsthedifferenceofmarginsbetweentheformermethodologyandthenewone.ForNWE,MEDandSINGmostofthedifferenceisexplainedbythemarginalenergycostsubtraction.
RegardingtheUS,therevisionoftheyieldshasasubstantialimpactontheUSGCandUSMCmargins.TheyieldsarenowalignedwithEIApublicationswhichpullsthemarginsdown.ThebiggestcontributoristheGasolineyieldthatwashigherthantheUSGulfCoastandMidContinentyearlyaverage.
IEAMarginsNewVSOlddifferential(Left)andNewMargin(Right)
$/bbl
NWEurope
LightsweethydroskimmingLightsweetcracking
Lightsweetcracking+PetchemMediumsourcracking
Mediumsourcracking+Petchem
Mediterranean
LightsweethydroskimmingLightsweetcracking
Mediumsourcracking
USGulfCoast
LightsweetcrackingMediumsourcracking
2021
2022
2023
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
Jul24
Diff
-2.32-3.61-2.03-6.49-1.47
-2.26-7.40-8.34
-2.89-8.13-9.68
-0.39-11.98
-2.89-2.67-5.60-3.33
New
0.21-0.104.52-0.387.60
0.64-2.44-2.66
8.157.6610.30
11.9414.03
0.212.14-1.682.29
Diff
-2.80-6.91-7.61-9.13-3.48
-3.18-9.46-11.58
-4.56-12.38-14.50
-4.34-16.50
-2.48-2.07-6.16-1.97
New
7.269.3210.8330.0037.80
5.917.3510.08
22.0823.3131.42
25.5634.11
8.9910.876.6512.30
Diff
-2.25-2.62-2.96-9.91-4.85
-2.49-5.84-10.69
-3.65-10.30-11.87
-2.77-14.42
-1.29-0.92-5.88-2.68
New
5.579.198.
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