2024年全球旅游业展望报告：七大关键趋势驱动行业变革

CalmerWatersAhead?Spring2024Summaryfacingintohigh-costiSummary(withconsumersprioritisingspendCOVIDsavingsontravel);alongsidexpectcalmerwatersaheadfortchallengesincludingensuringfitdistributionandloyaltystrategistrongtech/digitalcapabilities,andCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March20|©OC&CStrategyCon1.ConsensusCAGR2023-28fortotalvolumeCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March20|©OC&CStrategyCon厂-2厂-厂-厂-Inaggregate,globaltravelhasalmostrecoveredto2019levelsAfricaAsiaWesternEuropeEasternAfricaAsiaWesternEuropeEasternEuropeCentral&SouthAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaSouthwestPacificWorld9080706050403020095WorldWorldInternationalWorldDomesticWithinEuropeNorthAmerica1Mar-Jun-Sep-Dec-Mar-Jun-Sep-Dec-Mar-Jun-Sep-Dec-Mar-Jun-Sep-Dec-202020202121212122222222232323231.NorthAmericaseriesreferstoallairlinetrafficoncarriersregisteredwithinNorthAmerica2.WeightedbyOAG%changeforregionsbyEuromonitorinboundarrivalvolumesforeachregiontoformcontinental/macroregiontotalsDomesticInternational978586869296919785868692969193 75(Nov-23=2019levels)CalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂-4厂-9080706090807060504030200OveralltravelrecoveryisfurtheraheadinUSvs.WesternEur979688201720182019202020212022202398939082807370605040302002017201820192020202120222023Business-DomesticBusiness-InternationalLeisure-DomesticLeisure-International2023atpre-covidtrend11.AssumessamerelationshipbetweenFlightVolumesandGDPasin2019Source:OxfordEconomics,EuCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March20|©OC&CStrategyCon厂-厂-ofAsiaandAustralia-althoughbothregionshaveimprovedvs.202220232023(2022)KeyIncreasingLevelsofOccupancyRecoverySource:CoStar,OC&Canalysis厂-6厂-AverageAirfaresforEuroArea(1950%45%40%35%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10% 5%0%38%25%-5an-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%NorthernAfricaSouthAmerica(excl.Venezuela)SouthernAfricaAustralia&OceaniaEuropeCentralAmericaAsia(excl.MainlandChina)MiddleEastNorthAmericaMainlandChinaSource:Eurostat,CoStar,ONS,OECD,S&PGlobal,DOS,OC&Canalysis厂-厂-WageinflationacrossthetrForexample,stronggrowthForexample,stronggrowthandthensofteningofdomesticvacationreyieldsdrivenbyrestrictionsoninternationaltravelinflatingdemandin2021/22asinternationaltravelhasreturnedsupportinghigherbusinChallengesChallengesStaffshortagesasworkersleftHighercostof‘greeSource:OC&Canalysis厂-8厂-Theglobalmacroeconom2015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202886420-2-4Forecast2015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202886420-2-4ForecastEuropeanCentralBanktargetis2%,thisisexpectedtobeachievedin2024/25Source:OxfordEconomic国RealRealGDPGrowth,20286420-2-4-6-8-10-1220152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028Forecast20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028EURealGDPgrowthisanticipatedtoreturnto2019levelofc.1.6%by2025,followedbyanaveragegrowthrateof1.8%2025-286543210-1-2-3-4-5-620152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028Forecast20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028EUDisposableIncomeisduetogrowpositivelyfromaround2024,followedbyanaveragegrowthrateof2%2024-28CalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂-厂-substantialsavingsbufferwhichsubstantialsavingsbufferwhichCosts(Non-RetireesForecastForecast 4%2%4%0%-2%-4%-6%Thetop3quintilesa£10.2k£35.8k£10.2kIncrementalCOVIDSavingsPre-CovidAnnualSavings£12.7k£25.6k£7.6k£5.1k£7.6k£5.1k£2.5k£5.4k£3.0k£2.4k£3.0k£2.4k£1.7k1st2nd3rd4th5thApr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25Apr-261.YearendingApr;2.UKExampleSource:ResolutionFoundation,ONS,OC&CSpendoninternationaccommodationbypopulationquintile2HHIncomeQuintiles4%6CalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂厂Apparel1.Lookingforwardforthenext12months,howdoyouthinkyourspendonthesedifferentcategoriesislikelytobedifferentrelativetothelast12months?Onlyrespondentspurchasingcategoryinlast3months.Source:OC&CConsumerSurvey,OC&Canalysis厂厂HighStreetTravelAgentsResortsCruiseandRiverHighStreetTravelAgentsResortsCruiseandRiverCruiseBusinessEventsFull-ServiceAirlinesTravelManagementCompaniesIndependentHotelsTraditionalTourOperatorsAproportionofbusinesstravelretail)–thishasleftanoppo●Theslowerreturnofinternatiobudgetairlinesanopporofbusinesstravelwherein-personVacationRentalsCaravanandHolidayVacationRentalsCaravanandHolidayParksLow-CostAirlinesOnlineTravelAgentsChainHotelspressureonfull-serviCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂厂12345671234567growingstronglypriortothepandemicConsumersandtraveloincreasemarginperbooGenerationalchangesAmajorityoftravellers(50%-70%)statethatsustainabilityimpacc.10%stateanywillAIhasgeneratedalotcurrentsolutionsfocusonsupportingcustomerinspiration/rCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂厂1International&BusinessRecovery806040200201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028SpainGermanyFranceUSASource:Euromonitor,OC&CpainGermanyFranceUSA201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028CalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©2PriceStabilisationDriver2020-23(vs2019)2023-28(vs2023)CommentaryCostInflationWageInflationEnergyInflation•TheECBforecastscoenergyinflationin2024,normPost-CovidSurgeinTravelDemandTravelDemandversusretailexpectedtocontinueConsumerSavings•AvailabilityofincrementalCOVIDsavingstravelspendreducingConsumerConfidence•ConsumerconfidenceexpectedtSupplyandOperationalChallengesCapacityRestrictions•AirlineandhotelsupplyconstraintsexStaffShortages•Staffshortagesarelikelytoconshort-termaslabourmarketsremESGESGCostsSource:IATA,FitchRatingwouldapplytoassessoutlookforpricingwithindifferenttravelWhilenominalinflationishighinmanycasesthecostoftravelhasn’tgrowninrealtermsWeexpectcontinuedrecoveryofinternationaltravelwhichmaynegativelyimpactdomestic/valuesubstitutesofsuppliersimpactinLowerprofitabilityinhotelsforexamplehashistoricallyslowedtheapprovalratefornewprojectsandthereforeoverallgrowthinsupplysupportingrecoveryofpricingCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂2PriceStabilisationBack-up:Recessionsandothero1NightsStayed1NightsStayedinHotels1987-2021YoYGrowthRate(%)25%5%0%-5%1985YearsYearstoDemandforaccommodationiscloselycorrelatedwithrealGDPandpopulation.Recessionstypicallycauseamodest(-1%to-6%)andshort-lived(<2years)declineindemand2NumberofHotel2NumberofHotelRooms1987-2021YoYGrowthRate(%)4%3%2%1%0%198519905199520006200520107201520202025YearstoYearstoGrowthofhotelroomsupplystallsinrecessions,asthecompletionofongoingconstructionprojectsoffsetsclosuresamongstindependents.Supplycantake3-5yearstorecover,withchainsbenefittingasindependentsareharderhitSource:OC&Canalysis200020102005201520251444GulfWarDot.Com&9/11GFCCOVID200020102005201520251444CalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂厂厂320152016201720182019202020214%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%2015201620172018201920202021HotelsShort-TermRentalsOtherSource:Euromonitor,OC&Ca-3%△Share△ShareHotelsVacationRentals(e.g.AirBnB)Houses, Apartments,andRoomsforrentFamilyandfriends’housesCampingHostelsCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©4Bundling&OTAsdrivenbybetterpriceandsimplicity-suppliersdothistoprotectmarginWillingnesstoCombinePu3%5%3%8%7%8%8%8%23%24%25%25%22%23%25%36%32%33%28%27%26%26%9%9%Iwouldneverpurcha123123togetherairlines/OTAsselling1.Howlikelyareyoutopurchaseyour[insertproducts]together(aspartofthesamebookingprocess)?N=1,975Source:OC&Canalysis厂厂厂5GenerationalDifferencestravellers;theyalsoincreasinglyseekWillingnesstopayfortrips1(%ofRespondents)%%4%5%5Frequencyoftrips2(#TripsperYear;%ofRespondents) Typicaltripduration3 ll5% Purchaseonsite Purchaseonsite 1.Howmuchdidyouspendontravelandvacationsinthepast12months?N=2,076;2.Howmanytripshaveyoudoneinlasttwelvemonthstofollowingdestinations?N=2,0763.Howmanytripshaveyoudoneofeachlengthinlast12months?N=2,076;4.Wheredoyougetinspirationforyourholidays?N=2,076;5.HowhaveyouboughtyourtripsafterCovid?N=2,076Source:OC&Csurvey,OC&Canalysis厂厂alternativemeansoftransportation(e.g.insteadofairtravelwhenevhavenegativeenvironmefriendlyandsustainabletraveloptions. commitmenttoenvironmentalconse operatorsthathaverecognizedsustaincertifications(e.g.,GreenKe6EnvironmentalConcernsImpactofEnvironmentConcernson34%39%43%45%44%50%Yes66%61%57%55%56%50%ItalyPolandFranceGermanyUKNetherlands fortravelexperiencesin1.Howmuchenvironmentalconcernsinfluenceyourvacationchoices?N=2,0762.Howmuchdoissuesrelatedtotheenvironmentandsustainabilitymoregenerallyinfluenceyourtravelandvacationchoices?N=2,076Source:OC&Canalysis厂20厂7AIBookingJourneysiplan.aigeneratescustomertailoreditinerarieswithphotos2回uber9ChatGPTsuggestscustomer9ChatGPTsuggestscustomerpreferencesAirbnbandHospitableareusingconversationalAItoimprovetheirSource:OC&Canalysis厂21厂7AIBookingJourneysongoingimprovements&innovationComplex/EmotionalComplex/EmotionalmodelinnovationrelevantforotherAbercrombie&kentLocalTravelAgentsAbercrombie&kentLocalTravelAgentsTrustandservicelevelsforcomplextripshardertoreplicate MissionsservedbycurrentLLMs/AItoolsFLixwnssExistingdigitalplatformstripslikelyenharuoptimisedtoserve‘simple’ncedbyAItoolsCalmerWatersCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©ImplicationsforManagement厂23厂businessescapturesSource:OC&CanalysisSeekopportunitiestoCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂24厂Source:OC&Canalysis$1,0002023wasayearofrecalibrationchar2023wasayearofrecalibrationcharSources:(1)PitchBook;(2)BlackrockCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March20©OC&CStrategyConsultants2厂25厂26厂•MostStrategics•MostStrategicshaveincreasinglystrongbalancesheets(oraccesstofunding)•PrivateEquitygenerallyhaveagoodrecordinthesector•PotentialchangestotheCAAregime•Certainsegmentsseeingincreasedscrutinyfromanantitrustperspective••IncreasinglyingrainedinhowallinvestorsareassessingM&A•Lendersswitchingtrackto“RiskOn”,althoughclearlycomenervousnessonthesector••“A”assetscontinuetobevaluedstrongly•Acontinuedemphasisonprofitability••Continuedbiasforhighlyselective/tailoredbuyeraudiences•AcrossthebroadspectrumofcapitalsolutionsCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂27厂M&A-recenttransactionactivitySONDER/SONDER/certarescertaresWHEELSUPicGcertaresWHEELSUPicG向vacasa//F心冷心H'ripscomtravoprimaryVentureF心冷心H'ripscomtravoprimaryVenture20202021202220232020202120222023Venturepears"certaresVenturepears"certares/向vaca向vacasa//AlcentrAlcentraSomeformofdistressTransactionsacrossthebreadthoftheTransactionsacrossthebreadthoftheglobaltravellandscapeSource:S&PCapitalIAsignificantAsignificantuptickinplatformdeals(inadditiontobolt-ons)DifferenttypesofcapitalsolDifferenttypesofcapitalsolutionsCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂28厂SuccessfultransactionsiandthenlayeringanGrossmarginsstabilise(topriorlevelornewnormal)‘New’EBITDAmarginsaresustainable●Importantnotonlytoevidencethatrecoveryis“complete”butalsotoestablishanewbasefromwhichtogrow●ProveoutthattheincreasedcostefficiencyisadequateANDscalable●Hardtobeprecise,butgenerallyneed6/12+months’evidenceofthis“newnorm”1Strongbookingmomentum/visibilitywitharoadmapbackto●Near-termgrowthevidencedbyamixof“Momentum”andfuture“RevenueVisibility”●Importanttofocusonthe10-yearvision;theroutetoamuchlargerbusinessinthefutureexpandingmargins(includingCAC)Evidencesupportinglongtermtoplinegrowth(volumeandyield)>100%ofFY19PAXEvidencestableor10+yearvisionCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂29厂Covid.CleararticulationofwhythissteensurethestorystaDriversofEBITDADriversofEBITDAMarginImprovementEBITDAandEBITDAMarginDevelopmentCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂30厂ThetraveldealsthatHWhastransactthereisacompellingand‘evidenceable’lo√√√CompanyA√CalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂31厂1●Formany,2019wasth1●However,customerbehaviourhaschangedsignificantlysince22●●●CPAshavegenerallyreboundedsinceWhereisthenewmarketnorm,bychannel?WhatevidencewiWhatleversexisttomitigateCPAinflation(e.g.,channeldiversificat33YieldStability●●●Acombinationofdemandandsupply-sidefactorshavedrivensignificantyieldinflation–forsomesegments,thiWhatdoesyieldgrowthlooklikeinaTowhatextentwillimprovingconsumersentimentsAkeyareaoffocusformanygivenrepe44●●Insomecases,investmentintech55●Manyoperatorsundertooksignificantplatforminvestmentdu6●Arethereacquisitionswhichaddanotherbrand/product/sourcemarke6CalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂32厂TravelSectorStockPerformance-StockPricePerformanc150%100%50%0%(50%)(100%)Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23BookingHoldingsOntheBeachHostelworldTTrainlineExpediaTripadvisoreDreamsSource:S&PCapitalIQ;marketdataasof20February2024厂33厂‘No‘NoMansLand’AkinToTech‘RuleOf40’Threebroadcampsthatattracthighvaluations:●Veryhighgrowth(35%+)+lossmaking=Revenuemultiples●Solidgrowth(10-20%+)+solidmargins(10-20%)=EBITDAmultiples●Lowergrowth(<10%)+exceptionalmargins(25%+)=EBITDAmultiplesPROVENWHITESPACEFORGROWTHOOPERATINGKPIS(FEEDINGULTIMATELYFINANCIALMETRICS(REVENUEGROWTH/MARGINS/CASHFLOW●Weseevaluationdrivenbythreeprincipalbuckets,eachofincreasingimportance●Ultimately,itisprovenwhitespaceforgrowthwhichimpactsvaluationthemost.Buttheotherbuildingblockshavetobeinplacefirsttoforma“sustainableandsolidplatform”CalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂34厂ABookingjournBB123434AACPricingoptimCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂35厂ThebeststoriesareeasilydiligencedbyextensiveKPIs-wehavesunpromoted,bysource4.Otherguestratings,award5.Customertargetdemogr7.Emaildatabasesi8.#emailssenttodatabase9.#followersonsoofinteraction/#ofpostsdistributionchanne2.Websiteperformance4.Repeatcustomer%o8.Reviewsitefeedb10.Attributionsophistication4.AverageBookingVa5.Averagetripduration(conversionfromfirrepeater(andABVundeCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂36厂OC&C:ADVISINGLEADERSANDDISRUPTORSACROSSTHEVALUECHAINHARRISWILLIAMS:TSteveSinghandaconsortiumofgrowthinvestorsscottDunnaportfoliocompanyofForestSteveSinghandaconsortiumofgrowthinvestorsscottDunnaportfoliocompanyofForestHolidaysaportfoliocompanyofaportfoliocompanyofTMCinvestmentfromicGaportfoliocompanyofaportfoliocompanyofVacationrentalVacationaportfoliocompanyofPR1MARYInventoryOwnerssyTravelIntermediariesTravelTech,SoftwareandDataOnlinetravelagentRivercruiseRiCalmerWatersAhead-GlobalTravelOutlook-March2024|©厂37厂Tom.Gladstone@Phil.Hunt@occstrategy.wbain@bwalker@harriswilliTim.Cook@Nicholas.Farhi@occstrategy.cSimona.dossena@AssociatePartnerMohsin.Saleh@occstrategyAssociatePartnerRebecca.Henshaw@occstratJan.bergmann@earkus@tmonjauze@zengland@csmith@harriswilliamsdwang@harriswilliams.kmolinari@harriswilkpatel@harriswilliamHarrisWilli