英国国家经济和社会研究所-月度工资追踪：随着通货膨胀的下降工人继续获得实际收入增长（英）

NIESRMonthlyWageTracker

WithInflationFalling,WorkersContinueMakingRealIncomeGains

MonicaGeorgeMichail

12November2024

“Today’sONSfiguresindicatethatwagegrowthcontinuestoease,recording4.8percent(excludingbonuses)inthethirdquarterof2024,itslowestlevelsinceJune2022.Withvacanciesfallingandunemploymentrising,weforecastwagepressurestoeaseinthecomingmonths,althoughtheannouncedriseinNationalLivingWagewouldexertsomeupwardpressureinApril.Giventoday'sfigures,weexpecttheBankofEnglandtocontinuegraduallycuttingratesin2025.”

MonicaGeorgeMichail

AssociateEconomist,NIESR

MonthlyWageTracker

November24-2-

NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchniesr.ac.uk

Figure1–AnnualgrowthinAverageWeeklyEarnings,RegularPay

MainPoints

•Growthinaverageweeklyearningscontinuestoease,recording4.8percentforregularpayinQ32024.Totalpaygrowth(includingbonuses)recorded4.3percent,whichisaffectedbybaseeffectsfromtheone-offpublicsectorbonuspaymentslastyear.

•ForQ4ofthisyear,weforecastaslightuptickinbothtotalandregularpaygrowthto5.0percentduetobaseeffects.

•Withinflationfalling,annualgrowthinrealregularpayremainsstrongat2.2percentinSeptember,meaningworkerswillseeacontinuedrecoveryintheirstandardofliving.

•Unemploymentroseto4.3percent,andemploymentslightlyincreasedto74.8percent.However,itisworthnothingthatLFSdataremainvolatile,andthereforeshouldbetreatedwithcaution.

•Weforecastunemploymenttoremainslightlyabovethe4percentmarkthroughthecomingmonthsbutremainsbelowitsnaturalrate.

•Asvacanciescontinuetofall,thevacancy-to-unemploymentratioisnowclosetopre-pandemiclevels,leadingtoareductioninwagepressures.

•Growthinservicessectorwageshasnotablyfalleninrecentmonths,recording4.1percentinQ3,comparedtoanaverageof5.6percentinthefirsthalfofthisyear.ThisispositivenewsforinflationandmightprovidetheBankofEnglandwithincreasedconfidenceregardinginterestratecuts.

MonthlyWageTracker

November24-3-

Vacanciesandemployment

Today’sreleaseshowsthattheemploymentrateincreasedroseto74.8percentinQ32024,from74.5percentinQ2.Theinactivityratefellslightlyto21.8percent,althoughitremainsabovepre-pandemiclevels.Theunemploymentrateroseto4.3percent.However,theONSoutlinesthatLFSdataremainsvolatileduetosmallersamplesizes,andthereforeestimatesshouldbetreatedwithcaution.

Alternativesourcesforlabourmarketdata

1

indicatethattherehasbeenasustainedgrowthinemploymentoverthepastyear,althoughLFSestimatesonemploymentgrowthmaybeoverstated.

Agoodmeasureoflabourmarkettightnessisthevacancy-to-unemploymentratio.Figure2showsthevacancy-to-unemploymentratiorecorded0.57inSeptember,whichhasgraduallyfallenfromits2022peak,andisbecomingclosetoitspre-pandemicaverageof0.52(in2015-2019).

Thenumberofjobvacanciescontinuedtodropby35thousandinQ32024,representinga4percentfall.Thesefiguresindicatethatthelabourmarketcontinuestograduallycoolwhichwouldexertdownwardpressureoninflation.

Inourlatest

UKEconomicOutlook,

weforecasttheunemploymentratetoremainstablearoundthe4percentmarkinthemediumterm.Ifthistrendofagraduallooseningofthelabourmarketcontinues,wecanexpectwagegrowthtograduallyreturntohistoricallevels.

Figure2–Vacancy-to-unemploymentratio

1WorkforceJobs(WFJ),ClaimantCountdata,andPayAsYouEarn(PAYE)RealTimeInformation(RTI)estimates

MonthlyWageTracker

November24-4-

Pay

Theannualgrowthrateofregularaverageweeklyearningswas4.8percentinQ32024.Totalpay,includingbonuses,recorded4.3percent,whichisaffectedbybaseeffectsfromtheone-offpublicsectorbonuspaymentslastyear.

Thesefiguresindicatethatwagegrowthhasbeengraduallyslowing(Figure1).Withinflationfalling,annualrealeconomy-widepaygrowth(excludingbonuses)recorded2.2percentinSeptember2024,indicatingthathouseholdscontinuetoexperienceimprovementsinlivingstandards.

Goingforward,asthelabourmarketcontinuestoloosen,weexpectbothregularandtotalpaygrowthtorecord5.0percentinQ42024.Whilelabourmarketcoolingandinflationstayingclosetotargetlevelopenroomforgradualinterestratecuts,thepersistenceofwagegrowthaswellastheinflationarypressuresofthelatestBudgetmeanstheBankofEnglandmayexercisesomecaution.

Figure3–Realaverageweeklyearnings

Private-sectorannualregularpaygrowthwas4.8percentinQ32024and4.5percentifweincludebonuses.Ourestimateforthefourthquarterof2024seesboththesefiguresat5.0cent.Wethereforeexpectprivatesectorworkerstocontinuemakingrealincomegainsinthecomingmonths,whichcanbeinterpretedasa‘wagecatch-up’periodfollowingoverayearofrealincomelosses.

Public-sectorannualregularAWEgrowthwas4.7percentinQ32024.Totalpay(includingbonuses)recorded3.5percentifweincludebonuses,whichisaffectedbythelargebaseeffectfromtheone-offNHSandcivil-servicebonuspaymentslastyear.Weestimateannualpublicsectorregularpaygrowthtorecord4.2percentinQ42024,and4.1percentifweincludebonuses.

MonthlyWageTracker

November24-5-

Figure4-AnnualEarningsGrowthintheServicesSector

ServicessectortotalAWEannualgrowthslightlyuptickedto4.1percentinQ32024buthasgenerallyexperiencedalargedropfromanaverageof5.6percentinthefirsthalfofthisyear.Thisshowssignsofgradualnormalizationtopre-pandemiclevels,astheaveragegrowthrateinservicesAWEwas2.9percentfrom2002to2020.

Sincepayintheservicessectormakesupmostofthesectorinputcosts,itisthemaindriverofservicesinflation.ThefallinservicesAWEisthereforegoodnewsforunderlyinginflation,which

wouldeaseifservicesectorpaygrowthcontinuestofall.

Caveat

NIESR’sWageTrackerincludespredictionsforregularpayandbonuspaymentsforthewholeeconomy,aswellasforecastsforprivateandpublic-sectorwages.TheWageTrackerexploitsinformationfromkeymacroeconomicindicators,includinglabourmarkettrends,buildingalsooninformationfrommonthlyGDPnowcastsproducedbyNIESR’sGDPTrackerandsurveyevidence,suchaslabourcostsinthemanufacturingandservicesectorsfromtheBankofEnglandAgentsScores.Thewagemodelsalsocapturetheinteractionbetweenprivateandpublicpay,showntoberelevantinworkdonebyNIESR.

Tocheckhowourmethodologywouldworkinrealtimewehaveproducedjudgement-freeforecastsofearningsgrowthfortheperiodbetweenJuly2010andOctober2018.Forwholeeconomyearnings,therootmeansquareerroris0.2percentagepointsforthemeasureexcludingbonusesand0.4percentagepointsforthemeasureincludingbonuses.Thesenumbersindicatethedegreeofuncertaintyaroundthepointforecastsproducedbythemodelsateachpointintime.Theerrorsaregreaterforthemeasureofearningsincludingbonusesbecausebonuspayments,particularlyintheprivatesector,aresubjecttoshort-termvolatility.Inpractice,weaddresidualsreflectingourjudgementsotheactualerrorbandsmaybelargerorsmaller.

MonthlyWageTracker

November24-6-

Notesforeditors:

ForfurtherinformationpleasecontacttheNIESRPressOffice:

press@niesr.ac.uk

orLucaPierion02039484488/

l.pieri@niesr.ac.uk

NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch

2DeanTrenchStreetSmithSquare

London,SW1P3HEUnitedKingdom

SwitchboardTelephoneNumber:02072227665Website:

http://www.niesr.ac.uk

MonthlyWageTracker

November24-7-

Table1:Summarytableofearningsgrowth

AverageWeeklyEarnings

Wholeeconomy

Privatesector

Publicsector

Latestweights

100

82

18

RegularTotal

Regular

Total

Regular

Total

Sep-23

622668

617

674

642

647

Oct-23

619664

614

670

643

646

Nov-23

624666

619

671

647

649

Dec-23

626670

622

674

651

653

Jan-24

628672

621

677

657

658

Feb-24

633679

627

683

658

660

Mar-24

637684

631

687

663

664

Apr-24

640686

635

690

662

665

May-24

643687

637

691

665

669

Jun-24

645689

640

695

664

670

Jul-24

648690

642

696

666

671

Aug-24

649693

644

699

666

670

Sep-24

651696

647

702

669

672

Oct-24

653700

649

706

671

674

Nov-24

654700

649

705

674

676

Dec-24

654701

650

706

676

678

%change3monthaverageye