高盛-宁德时代-300750-聚焦中国高韧性企业：全球电气化的关键赋能者和先行者 （摘要）

份额，并将发展成为：(1)全球电气化的关键赋风险回报：我们认为宁德时代是中国行业龙头中具有代表性的高进一步的大规模普及不可或缺，因为电池广泛配备于安全敏感度较高高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关36信息披露附录CATLBearBaseBlueskyHowdowedefinescenarios?Howdowedefinescenarios?ValuationsRmb/sh161.0307.0431.0Upside%-36%22%71%Bearscenario2025EP/Ex12.818.025.3whenthereisnogrowthinglobalTAMduring2024-referenceAvg.NT/LTdiscountedPEDiscountedPE2030,CATLmaintainsglobalmarketshareat40%withthegainindomesticmarketshare(from47%-53%2015-23A2024E-30E2024E-30E2024-35E*during24-30,sameasbasecase)Revenue-CAGR70.2%-0.8%18.6%13.8%NP-CAGR62.0%4.1%25.2%18.6%BasescenarioOCF-CAGR85.4%2.5%18.6%15.0%GSbasecase,assumedglobalTAMholds24-30EFCF-CAGR169.0%10.5%25.5%18.8%CAGR22%,CATLbroadlymaintainsitsglobalmarketDivpayout-avg11.1%25.7%25.7%30.0%shareandGPpremiumvs.peersGrossmargin-avg30.9%27.2%29.3%33.4%EBITDAmargin-avg21.5%22.4%22.6%25.3%Netmargin-avg13.3%15.9%16.7%21.5%Blueskyscenariosolidglobaldemandgrowthfor2030-2035E(10%FCFyield-avg0.4%1.3%10.6%29.8%CAGR),CATLbroadlymaintainsitsmarketshareandDivyield-avg0.3%2.0%3.1%9.5%GPpremiumvs.peersROIC-avg22.5%12.3%18.6%(2035Emarginandyieldsareperiodendvalues)16.0%CATL2015201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2035EBearBearscenario-whenthereisnogrowthinglobalTAMfrom2024-2030,CATLmaintainsglobalmarketshareat40%withthegainindomesticmarketshare.Keyassumptions1.BatterysalesvolumeGWh5005005005005005005002.BatteryunitGPRmb/kWh188184185187185185187RevenueEBITDANPOCFICFFCFGrossmarginEBITDAmarginNetmarginEPSDPSFCFpershareFCFyieldDIVyieldROICRmbbnRmbbnRmbbnRmbbnRmbbnRmbbn%%%Rmb/shRmb/shRmb/sh%%%397.556.154.288.1(38.5)49.6 26% 20% 14%12.332.4711.274.5% 1.0%15.5%390.357.755.452.3 (9.1)43.2 27% 21% 14%12.602.779.823.9% 1.1%13.5%389.9 59.3 61.2102.6 (8.2) 94.3 27% 22% 16%13.92 3.3421.44 8.5% 1.3%13.3%388.560.962.266.7(16.4)50.3 27% 23% 16%14.143.6811.434.5% 1.5%12.1%386.260.963.6104.7(24.2)80.5 27% 23% 16%14.454.0518.307.3% 1.6%11.1%383.061.665.470.2(23.5)46.7 28% 23% 17%14.874.4610.614.2% 1.8%10.4%378.9 64.6 69.0102.4(12.3) 90.1 28% 23% 18%15.69 4.7120.49 8.1% 1.9%10.0%BaseBasescenario-GSe,assumedglobalTAMholds24-30ECAGR22%,CATLbroadlymaintainsitsglobalmarketshareandGPpremiumvs.peers.Keyassumptions1.BatterysalesvolumeGWh272141471332893905006488159651,1541,3311,5462.BatteryunitGPRmb/kWh947920496394274238180167199188191198202204204203RevenueEBITDANPOCFICFFCFGrossmarginEBITDAmarginNetmarginEPSDPSFCFpershareFCFyieldDIVyieldROICRmbbnRmbbnRmbbnRmbbnRmbbnRmbbn%%%Rmb/shRmb/shRmb/sh%%%5.7 1.2 0.9 0.7(0.6) 0.039%25%16%0.78-0.01 0.0% 0.0%81.5%14.9 3.6 2.9 2.1(12.4)(10.3) 44% 29% 19%1.87-(2.35)-0.9% 0.0%30.3%20.0 3.4 3.9 2.3(7.6)(5.3)36%24%19%2.01-(1.20)-0.5%0.0%16.8%29.6 4.6 3.4 11.3(19.5) (8.2) 33% 23% 11% 1.640.15(1.86)-0.7%0.1%10.2%45.8 6.1 4.6 13.5 1.9 15.3 29% 23% 10%2.090.223.48 1.4%0.1%10.8%50.3 6.1 5.618.4(15.1) 3.4 28% 22% 11%1.390.140.770.3%0.1%8.1%130.418.315.942.9(53.8)(10.9) 26% 19% 12%3.82-(2.47)-1.0%0.0%14.1%328.632.030.761.2(64.1) (2.9) 20% 13% 9%7.18 1.44(0.67)-0.3%0.6%15.7%400.945.444.192.8(29.2)63.6 23% 17% 11%11.795.8914.475.7%2.3%15.4%397.556.154.288.1(38.5)49.6 26% 20% 14%12.332.4711.274.5% 1.0%15.5%501.879.675.0111.0(42.5)68.5 28% 22% 15%17.053.7515.576.2% 1.5%17.5%625.6106.9103.2143.8(43.7)100.1 29% 22% 17%23.47 5.6322.76 9.0% 2.2%19.6%729.9131.6123.8164.3(49.7)114.6 30% 23% 17%28.14 7.3226.0610.3% 2.9%19.4%858.6161.4152.0193.9(57.9)136.0 30% 24% 18%34.55 9.6730.9212.3% 3.8%19.7%973.9188.5178.2217.1(58.9)158.2 31% 24% 18%40.5112.1535.9614.3% 4.8%19.4%1,107.5220.2208.8244.8(51.6)193.3 31% 24% 19%47.4714.2443.9417.4% 5.7%19.3%BlueBlueskyscenario-solidglobaldemandgrowthfor2030-2035E(10%CAGR),CATLbroadlymaintainsitsmarketshareandGPpremiumvs.peers.Keyassumptions1.BatterysalesvolumeGWh5006488159651,1541,3311,5462,4902.BatteryunitGPRmb/kWh188191198202204204203203RevenueEBITDANPOCFICFFCFGrossmarginEBITDAmarginNetmarginEPSDPSFCFpershareFCFyieldDIVyieldROICRmbbnRmbbnRmbbnRmbbnRmbbnRmbbn%%%Rmb/shRmb/shRmb/sh%%%397.556.154.288.1(38.5)49.6 26% 20% 14%12.332.4711.274.5% 1.0%15.5%501.879.675.0111.0(42.5)68.5 28% 22% 15%17.053.7515.576.2% 1.5%17.5%625.6106.9103.2143.8(43.7)100.1 29% 22% 17%23.47 5.6322.76 9.0% 2.2%19.6%729.9131.6123.8164.3(49.7)114.6 30% 23% 17%28.14 7.3226.0610.3% 2.9%19.4%858.6161.4152.0193.9(57.9)136.0 30% 24% 18%34.55 9.6730.9212.3% 3.8%19.7%973.9188.5178.2217.1(58.9)158.2 31% 24% 18%40.5112.1535.9614.3% 4.8%19.4%1,107.5220.2208.8244.8(51.6)193.3 31% 24% 19%47.4714.2443.9417.4% 5.7%19.3%1,642.6363.3352.6407.8(77.9)330.0 33% 25% 21%80.1624.0575.0129.8% 9.5%16.0%Accumulatedshipment(GWh)Warrantyusedas%ofrevenue0.●●●Accumulatedshipment(yearto2023)2019-20ShareintotalaccumulatedR&Dexpendituresofmajorpalyers(%)100%80%60%40%20%0%9%5%12%9%4%11%10%4%10%14%9%5%12%9%4%11%10%4%10%14%14%10%10%4%10%15%13%10%10%3%11%10%13%11%11%5%10%11%4%10%13%14%10%12%5%11%19%12%11%16%23%22%24%23%22%13%11%14%11%14%12%12%11%17%38%38%37%41%38%38%37%35%30%27%28%25%35%30%27%28%2018201920202021202220232024E2025E2030ECATLBYDChinaTier-2LGESSamsungSDISKOnJPPlayers692LGESCashcost(Rmb/kWh,2024E)692LGESReflectingex-ChinaReflectingex-Chinamarket7026004784584624784583443883443604002003604000CATLCATL-adjustedCALBEVECATLCATL-adjustedaverageShareintotalEBITDAofmajorplayers(%)100%80%60%40%20%0%5%5%8%6%3%8%2%7%2%7%6%6%10%10%5%6%13%13%4%4%21%7%7%17%13%13%13%12%12%12%12%14%14%10%10%58%56%59%55%54%202220232024E2025E2030ECATLChinaTier-2aLGES(excl.IRA)-SamsungSDI(excl.IRA)aOthersIRAWarrantyusedas%ofrevenue(2019-2023average)1.6%0.9%0.5%0.3%2.4%CATLBYDEVEEnergy2019-2023AverageFarasisGotion0201820192020202120222023CATLEVEGotionCALBFarasisPeeraverage10610391UnitGP(Rmb/kWh)4003002381992001921441003943222741801670201820192020202120222023CATLEVEGotionCALBFarasisPeeraverage10610391UnitGP(Rmb/kWh)400300238199200192144100394322274180167资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部3(3)(11)(6)(7)(26)(29)15643(3)(11)(6)(7)(26)(29)15640(58)--CATL-OperatingcashflowCATL-Investingcashflow6%-3%-5%ROIC(%)6%-3%-5%20%15%14%14%15% 13%15% 13%12%12%8%7%6%5% 4%6%5% 4%5%4%5%-5%-10%201820192020202120222023CATLEVEEnergyGotionLGESSamsungSDISKOnPanasonic资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部12023-2035E--Battery(liquidelectrolyte)3%3%12%8% 10%15%17%15%5%7%16%10%17%11%12%10%4%14%8%5%13%8%17%12%16%10%7%16%13%15%13%6%20%17%12%9%15%14%7%21%15%17%31%22%24%19%19%17%3%3%12%8% 10%15%17%15%5%7%16%10%17%11%12%10%4%14%8%5%13%8%17%12%16%10%7%16%13%15%13%6%20%17%12%9%15%14%7%21%15%17%31%22%24%19%19%17%ShareintotalCAPEX+R&Dexpendituresofmajorpalyers(%)100%80%60%40%20%0%19%10%9%15%35%32%27%25%15%14%12%32%19%2018201920202021202220232024E2025E2030ECATLBYDChinaTier-2LGESSamsungSDISKOnJPPlayersShareintotalaccumulatedR&Dexpendituresofmajorpalyers(%)100%80%60%40%20%0%9%5%12%9%4%11%10%4%10%14%9%5%12%9%4%11%10%4%10%14%14%10%10%4%10%15%13%10%10%3%11%10%13%11%11%5%10%11%4%10%13%14%10%12%5%11%19%12%11%16%23%22%24%23%22%13%11%14%11%14%12%12%11%17%38%38%37%41%38%38%37%35%30%27%28%25%35%30%27%28%2018201920202021202220232024E2025E2030ECATLBYDChinaTier-2LGESSamsungSDISKOnJPPlayersRmb/kWh(UnitNP,UnitCAPEX)PaybackPeriod(Yr)1,0008006004002000201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026Emid-cycle8.4UnitCAPEX201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026Emid-cycle8.4UnitCAPEXexpansionduetoHungaryplantinvestment4.94.2●ooo1.12.9●●●●UnitCAPEXUnitNPUnitCAPEXUnitNP86420Investmentreturn(%)45%32%26%23%23%23%21%21%20%21%21%18%19%18%12%12%22%12%12%10%10%10%14%13%10%11%13%10%10%6%201620172018201920202017201820192020SupplychainROI2021202220232024E2025E2026E2021202220232024E2025E2026EBatteryROE(excl.investment)mid-cycle资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部EBITDAMargin(%)30%22%20%22%22%20%22%19%17%20%◆17%13%10%0%2018201920202021202220232024E2025E2030E-10%CATLChinaTier-2Avg.LGES(excl.IRA)SamsungSDI(excl.IRA)SKOn(excl.IRA)Panasonic(excl.IRA)ShareintotalEBITDAofmajorplayers(%)100%80%60%40%20%0%5%5%8%6%3%8%2%7%2%7%6%6%10%10%5%6%13%13%4%4%21%7%7%17%13%13%13%12%12%12%12%14%14%10%10%58%56%59%55%54%202220232024E2025E2030ECATLChinaTier-2aLGES(excl.IRA)-SamsungSDI(excl.IRA)aOthersIRA2035E).2035E.CashTurnoverDays306300298264245245263264245245240220228240220185200185170175142157170175142135131135908010265817260101908010265817260124967110412496715865525868656562485865525868656562-53-97-99-55-36-53-97-99-55-36-29-25-32o——o-15-115-127-1132015201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2030E2035E2015201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2030E2035ENetpayabledaysNetrecievabledays--Inventorydays-o-CashconversioncycleRmb/sh8060402080604020020202021202220232024E2025E2030E2035EEPSFCF/shDPSRmbbn788060402005252484439●34282521336544●●425311●●●20202021202220232024E2025E2030E2035ECAPEX:upgradingandrebuildingCAPEX:newcapacityDepreciation&AmortizationCAPEXCROCI(%)60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%55%56%48%43%46%47%46%39%40%20202021202220232024E2025E2030E2035ENetDebt(Rmbmn)NetGearing(%)0-500-1,000-1,500-2,00020202021202220232024E2025E2030E2035E-185-237-46-41-101-146-1,635-72420202021202220232024E2025E2030E2035E-185-237-46-41-101-146-1,635-724-44%-57% -67%-67%-69%-71%-77%-79%0%-25%-50%-75%-100%NetDebtNetGearingCapacity(GWh)Utilization(%)02,761 20202021202220232024E2025E2030EChinaDomesticOverseasProduction一Utilization2035PEValuationBaseYrRmb/shxDiscountFactor25EValuationsRmb/sh431431L-Tvalue2035E80.1615.0x2.82035PEValuation2024E2025E2026E3.0x5.0x2035E5.4x1.0x4.2xImpliedPSImpliedPEImpliedPBEV/EBITDAxxxx4.8x35.0x 7.9x21.7x3.8x25.3x 6.3x2035EUnit2035EUnitGP10312314316318320322324326328330317.0%27.0%37.0%47.0%57.0%1241441641852052252462672873083281661992312642962092542983433882523093654224795345926487057628182953644325015706377077768449139823284313623944274594924775215666106552035EUnitGP2035EUnitGP10312314316318320322324326328330317.0%27.0%37.0%47.0%57.0%-60%-53%-47%-40%-33%-27%-20%-13%-7%0%7%-46%-35%-25%-14%-4%7%18%28%39%50%60%-32%-17%-3%12%26%40%55%70%84%99%113%-18%1%19%37%56%74%93%111%130%148%166%-4%19%41%63%86%107%130%153%175%197%220%Ave.%40.148.1%%%Discount2035dividendto2024vs.CPCOEof11.2%,perpetualg2035valuation300750.SZ12mPriceTarget:Rmb307Price:Rmb251.89Upside:21.9%MarketMarketcap:Rmb1.1tr/$157.9bnEnterprisevalue:Rmb922.9bn/$131.5bn3mADTV:Rmb3.7bn/$515.5mnChinaChinaBatteryLeasesincl.innetdebt&EV?:YesRevenue(Rmbmn)EBITDA(Rmbmn)Ndebt/EBITDA(exlease,X)CROCI(%)400,917.066,807.918.2 4.8 47.52.39397,482.580,644.020.4 4.6 43.34.52.81501,784.614.8 46.39/24E625,603.523.4710.7 2.9 2.251.0Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsRe