2024全球水电生产数据

InternationalHydropowerAssociation 2024WorldHydropowerOutlook

1

2024

WorldHydropowerOutlook

Opportunitiestoadvancenetzero

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Introduction

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Introduction

2

Coverphotograph

CahoraBassahydroelectricproject,MozambiqueCredit:HidroelectricadeCahoraBassa

ContentsphotographThreeGorgesproject,ChinaCredit:CTG

Supportedby:

Contents

3

Introduction 4

Foreword

:

MalcolmTurnbull,IHAPresident 5

Foreword

:

BruceDouglas,GlobalRenewablesAllianceCEO 6

Executivesummary 7

Trackinghydropoweragainstnetzero 9

Hydropower:thebackboneofrenewableenergysystems 10

‘Big100’pipelineprojects 14

Prioritypolicythemes 19

Planningforsustainablehydropower 20

Gettingprojectsfinanced 23

Newhydropowertechnology 27

Measuringhydropower'sclimateimpact 30

Hydropower’sevolvingroleinclimatemitigationandadaptation 31

Genderequalityinhydropower:asnapshotofwomeninthesector 33

Summaryofpolicyandmarketrecommendations 35

Globaltrends 37

NorthandCentralAmerica 41

SouthAmerica 47

Europe 55

Africa 63

SouthandCentralAsia 73

EastAsiaandPacific 83

Installedcapacityandgeneration2023 92

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Introduction

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Introduction

PAGE

4

5

5

Introduction

Tomeetnetzerogoalsandprovidethebackbonetotriplingrenewablesby2030,hydropowerneedstodoubleby2050.

Hydropowerisnotjustenergydelivery.Itprovidesarangeofotherinvaluableservicestoenergygrids,suchasstorageandflexibilitytobalancesolarandwind,whilealsosupportingcommunitiesthroughagricultureservices,watermanagementandclimatemitigation.It’sanindustrythatcanprovidejobsandneedstoexpanditsworkforcetodeliveronitspotential.Pumpedstorage

hydropowerisgainingmomentum,anditspotentialtoshoreuptheenergygridisrapidlybecomingcleartoworldleaders.Withtheseelementsinmind,theoutlookforhydropowerin2024isbrightandchallenginginequalmeasure,withseveralmythsthatpersistabouthydropowerstandinginthewayofachievingthegrowthweneed.

Firstamongtheseistheperceptionthathydropowergenerationisunreliablebecauseofincreasingdroughts.Whiletherewillbemorefrequentdroughts,therewillalsobemorefrequentfloods,sowhileenergygenerationmayreduceinsomeregions,inothersitwillincrease.

Furthermore,increasedvariabilityinwaterresourceswillrequiremorewaterinfrastructure–andifmoredamsandreservoirsarerequiredforwatermanagement,thentheycanalsobeusedtogeneratepower.

Secondly,hydropowerisoftenseenasanoldtechnology.Butitisstilltomorrow’stechnology.Inthesearchforaclean,green,reliableandaffordableenergysystem,wehaveallthetechnologyweneedtodeliver.Whatislackingispoliticalwillandtime–water,windandsunwillgetthejobdone.Ifpermittingandlicencingcanbestreamlinedandsimplifiedinordertospeedupthedevelopmentprocess.

Finally,thereisaperspectivethatwehavereachedpeakhydropower.Althoughthenewlyinstalledcapacityoverthepastfiveyearsisdisappointing,largelydrivenbyaslowdowninChina,ourassessmentofthepipelineofprojectsindicatesamorepromisingfuture.Ifoff-riverpumpedstorageisincluded,thereisalmostunlimitedpotentialcapacity.

Therealchallengeisensuringthatthepoliciesandmarketmechanismsareinplacetoensurethatinvestmentinsustainablehydropowerisattractive.Capacityincreasesaregoingatabouthalftheratetheyneedtobeonthepathwaytonetzero.Historically,hydropowerhasbeenfundedbystateorintergovernmentalactors,buttheirabilitytoputmoreresourcesintothesectorislimited.Ifthebuildrateofhydropoweristodouble,thenweneedprivateinvestmentsothatannualcapitalflowscanalsodouble,fromUS$65billiontoUS$130billion.AsisindicatedbytheactivityreportedoninthisOutlook,thereisincreasedinterestfromprivateactorstodevelopandbuildnewcapacity.IHAwelcomesthedynamismandentrepreneurialspiritthattheseorganisationsbringtothesector.

Foreword

MalcolmTurnbull,IHAPresident

Hydropoweristhelargestsinglesourceofrenewableenergy,andpumpedstoragehydropowerprovidesmorethan90%ofallstoredenergyintheworld.Themorecleanbutvariablepowerthatisdevelopedthroughsolarandwind,themorepumpedhydropowerwillberequiredtoprovidebalanceandflexibilitywhen

thewinddoesn’tblow,andthesundoesn’tshine.Whilstthemarketsupportsthedeliveryofmoresolarpowerandmorewindpower,itislesseffectiveatrewardingtechnologieslikehydropower.Thisyear’sWorldHydropowerOutlooksetsouttheinterventionspolicymakerswillneedmaketoensurethecleanenergytransitionisdeliveredwiththerightmixofrenewables.

Thestakeshaveneverbeenhigher.WorldleadersmustactontheirCOP28commitmentstotripletotalglobalrenewablepowercapacityby2030toatleast11,000GWanddoubleenergyefficiencyimprovementratestostaywithinreachofmeetingthe1.5°Cgoals.AstheOutlookshows,wearewoefullyofftrackfromthedevelopmentofsustainablehydropowersetinthe2050netzeropathways.Inthepastfiveyears,hydropowercapacityhasgrownby115GW,whichisabouthalfthepaceitneedstobetostayonthenetzeropathway.Investmentlevelsarerunningathalfthenecessarypace.Newmechanismsinconcessionalfinancing,deriskingpolicies,andmandatesandtargetsareneededtounleashmoreprivateandpublicinvestment.

Governmentsneedtoplanforabalancedmixofrenewableenergy,forbothgenerationandlongdurationstorage.Investorsneedlongtermcertaintyfortheirinvestmentgiventhehighinitialcapitalcostsofbuildinglargeinfrastructureprojects.Moore’sLawdoesnotapplytodiggingholes;hydropowerprojectstaketime,morethanittakestobuildsolarfarms,andsoweneedtomovemuchfastertodeliverthepumpedhydropowerweneed.

Hydropowerdevelopmentmustbecarriedoutinasustainableandenvironmentallyresponsiblemanner.Thisincludesaddressingconcernsaboutthepotentialenvironmentalandsocialimpactsofhydropowerprojects,aswellasnavigatingpublicperception.Sooncethesitehasbeenidentifiedandthepoliciesareinplace,operatorsneedtousetheinternationallyrecognisedHydropowerSustainabilityStandardtodemonstrategoodandbestpracticeandtoaccessfinance.

Todrivedevelopment,IHAwill:

raiseawarenessamongstpolicymakersandthepublicoftheroleofsustainablehydropowerinthecleanenergytransition.

promotecollaborationandknowledgesharingamongindustrystakeholders,policymakers,andthepublic.

supportthesectorinenhancingthesustainabilityandresilienceofhydropowerprojects.

advocateforpoliciesthatsupportthegrowthofthehydropowerindustry.

Inaworldfacingincreasingclimateandgeopoliticalchallenges,policymakersandtheindustryneedtoactnow.TherecommendationswithinthisOutlooksetacoursefordeliveringacleanenergytransitionby2050.

MalcolmTurnbull,IHAPresident

Foreword

BruceDouglas,GlobalRenewablesAllianceCEO

AttheCOP28SummitinDubai,worldleaderscommittedtotriplingrenewablesby2030.Thatwasahugeachievement.Nowit’stimetoturnambitionintoaction.

Theenergytransitionwillrequiretherightmixtoensurethatwecandeliverrenewableelectricity24/7atmaximumefficiency.Forthisweneednotonlyvastlymoresolarandwindenergy,butalsotheflexibilityandstoragethatonly

sustainablehydropower,asthebackboneofrenewableenergy,candeliveratscale.Inrecognitionoftheneedforbalanceandstorage,in2024wewillseektodevelopaglobalstoragetargettogoalongsidethetriplingrenewablestarget.

Renewablesworkbestwhentheyworktogether.TheGlobalRenewablesAlliance(GRA)wasestablishedbyIHAandtheothermajorrenewablesassociationsin2022tounifytheglobalbodiesrepresentingthecleantechnologiesrequiredforanetzeroworldby2050.Collectivelywestrengthentheprivatesector’svoiceonacceleratingtheenergytransition,andcallforactiontotriplerenewableenergycapacityby2030toatleast11,000GW.

Deliveringonthiswillrequirecreatingamarketthatincentivisesinvestmentsinstorageandflexibilityaswellasjustgeneration.Weneedtode-riskinvestmentsinsustainablehydropower,andparticularlypumpedstorage,togetthemostfromalltherenewables.Wealsoneedtostreamlinepermittingprocesses,createresilientsupplychainsandimprovegridinfrastructure.

BruceDouglasGlobalRenewablesAllianceCEO

Iwarmlywelcomethefindingsofthe2024WorldHydropowerOutlookandtherecommendationsprovided,whichwillguidepolicymakersaswetriplerenewablesby2030,significantlyboostgloballongdurationenergystorage,anddoublesustainablehydropowerby2050.

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Introduction

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Introduction

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

7

PAGE

8

Executivesummary

Hydropowerprogressin2023:theheadlines

Theoverarchingheadlinethisyearisthegrowthintheglobalhydropowerfleetto1,416GWin2023.Conventionalhydropowercapacitygrewby7.2GWto

1,237GW,whilepumpedstoragehydropower(PSH)grewby6.5GWto179GW.Theconventionalhydropowercapacityadditionwasthelowestsingleyeardeliverythiscentury,thoughthelonger-termaverageisrelativelystableatabout20GWperyear.PSHdeliveryhasbeentrendingupwards,thoughfromalowerbase.

In2023therewasadecreaseingenerationof223TWhfrom2022’sfigureto4,185TWh.Thisreflectsdroughtconditionsinsomesignificanthydropowermarkets,thoughourexpectationisthat2024willreboundonthis,withgreaterflowsreportedinEuropeandChinaintheearlypartoftheyear.Asnotedabove,weshouldbepreparedforswingsinoutputfromyeartoyear.

Highlightsbyregion

Thenatureofdevelopmentsineachregionisdifferentgiventheirdifferingcircumstancesandhistorywithhydropower.InEurope,thereisamaturefleetofhydropowerstations,andtoprovidetheflexibilityrequiredtosupportEurope’sambitionsfordevelopmentofwindandsolartheemphasisisonmodernisationoftheseplusgreenfieldPSHdevelopment.Thisisreflectedinpolicydevelopmentsintheregion,withtheEUsettingoutreformstoelectricitymarketdesignand

theUKcommittingtosupportmechanismsforlongdurationenergystorage.

TheEUmeasurealsorequiresmemberstatestoreviewtheirneedsforflexibilityandestablishobjectivestodecreasetheirdependenceonfossilfuels.Thisformofpolicyactivityispositiveforfutureinvestmentinflexiblehydropower,particularlyPSH.

SimilarlytoEurope,inNorthandCentralAmericathereislittlenewgreenfieldconventionalhydropowerplanned,withastrongemphasisonrefurbishment

andmodernisation.InMexico,refurbishmentoftheexistingfleetisexpectedtoincreaseenergygenerationfromhydropowerandcontributetomeetingthecountry’sgreenhousegasreductiongoals.ThereissomedevelopmentofPSHassets,withseverallargeprojectsannouncedbutnotyetadvancedintotheplanningsystem.

SouthAmericaisanotherregionwithalargeinstalledbaseofhydropowerassets,alreadysupplyingabout45%ofthecontinent’spower.Consideringthatmorethan50%oftheinstalledcapacityintheregionisover30yearsold,thereisanopportunitytomodernisetheseassetstoincreasetheircapabilityandclimateresilience.Alongsideanincrementalincreaseincapacityin2023,thereare

largeprojectsinthepipeline,includingthe7,550MWMansericheprojectbeingdevelopedinPeru,the3,600MWZamoraG8projectannouncedinEcuador,andthe2,400MWItuangoprojectunderconstructioninColombia.However,policydevelopmentneedstobeprioritisedifopportunitiesaretobeexploited.

InAfricaabout90%ofthecontinent’spotentialhasyettobetapped,eventhoughhydropoweralreadyprovides40%ofSub-SaharanAfrica’spower.Therearesomeencouragingsigns,withAfricainstalling2GWin2023,aquarteroftheglobalincreaseinconventionalhydropower.Nigeriawasthenumbertwocountryin

theworldfornewcapacity,adding740MWmainlythroughtheZungeruproject.Privateinvestmentiskey,withpartnershipsbetweenpublicandprivatesectorsincreasinglyusedtofinancedevelopment.Modernisationisonceagainaprincipaltheme,withmuchoftheinstalledcapacityageing.TheAfricanDevelopmentBank(AfDB)isleadingeffortstoupgrade12hydropowerplantswithaUS$1billioninvestment.

InSouthandCentralAsianotmanynewprojectswerecommissioned,butseveralarenearingcompletion,includingmajorprojectsinPakistanandBhutan.Major

Ultimately,theworldneedsmorehydropowerprojects,donebetteranddeliveredfaster

PSHprojectshavebeenannouncedinIndiafollowingpublicationofagovernmentguidancenoteondevelopment.Agreementsoncross-bordercooperationforelectricityandwaterintheregionbodewellforfuturedevelopment.Droughtsandfloodsintheregionbroughtsignificantdisruption,includingthecollapseofthedamattheTeestaStageIIIhydropowerstation.

CapacityadditionsinEastAsiaandPacificwereonceagainledbyChina,with

6.7GWoutoftheregion’s8.5GWofnewcapacity.MostofChina’snewcapacity,6.2GW,wasPSH,andthecountryalsodominatedtheglobaladditionsofthistechnology.China'swiderambitionistohaveasmuchas80GWinextraPSHcapacityby2027.AustraliaalsohasbigplansforPSH,withanew1.6GWprojectproposedintheHunterValley.Iftheregion’sconsiderablepotentialistobeexploited,thenmorepolicyactionandintergovernmentalcooperationisneededoutsideoftheregionalpowerhouseofChina.

Time4Action

Whilethereisincreasingglobalinterestinhydropower,thisrequiresactionfromgovernmentstobeconvertedintonewprojects.Upto2030,arelativelysmallincreaseovertherecenttrendbuildrate,fromabout20GW/yearuptoabout25GW/year,isrequiredforhydropowertomakeitsexpectedcontributiontothe‘triplingup’objectiveagreedatCOP28.Afterthat,however,ifnetzeroistobeachieved,deliveryneedstomorethandouble,toabout50GW/year,andthisrateneedstobesustaineduntil2050.

IHA’sassessmentinthisOutlookofthe“big100”pipelineofprojectsunderdevelopmentindicatesthatthisaccelerationiswithinreachfortheearlyyearsofthenextdecade,butmoreactionisneededtoraisethisrateofdeliveryfurther.Ultimately,theworldneedsmorehydropowerprojects,donebetteranddeliveredfaster.

Methodology

ThedatapresentedinthisreporthasbeencontinuouslytrackedandupdatedtoaccountfornewinformationinIHA’sglobalhydropowerdatabase,whichtracksmorethan13,000stationsinover150countries.

Datawerecompiledbyateamofanalystsusinginformationsourcedfrom(1)officialstatisticsfromgovernments,regulationagencies,transmissionnetworkoperatorsandassetowners;(2)scientificarticlesandreports;(3)dailynewsreportsinvolvinghydropowerplantdevelopment,officialdeclarationsofcontracts,andequipmentdeals;and(4)directconsultationwithoperatorsandindustrysources.

Differentsourcesreportoncapacityandgenerationusingtheirownmethodologies.Forexample,somecountriesmaynotinclude‘off-grid’facilities(hydropowerplantsnotconnectedtothemainelectricitygrid)intheirofficialstatistics,whileothersdo.Wherepossiblewehavetriedtoaccountforthesedifferences,butitislikelythatinconsistenciesremain.

Whengenerationdatafromprimarysourcesisnotavailable,estimatesarepreparedbasedonthepreviousyear’sfigure,averagedcapacityfactorsandregionalmeteorologicaleventsanddata.

Forasmallnumberofcountries,capacitydatafrompreviousyearshasbeenupdatedwithnewinformation.Thismeansthatthosecountrieswillseeayear-on-yearchangecomparedtopreviousyears’reports,butthesechangedcapacitynumbersarenottreatedascapacityaddedorlostin2023.

Thisyear’spipelineanalysisidentifiedthelargest100projectsnotyetinoperationwithintheIHAstationsdatabaseandresearchedtheirprogressandstatusindetailasaproxyforthewiderpipeline.Publicdomaininformationontheprojectswassourced,whereappropriatesupplementedbyIHA’sownresearch.

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Trackinghydropoweragainstnetzero

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Trackinghydropoweragainstnetzero

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

Trackinghydropoweragainstnetzero

9

BaihetanHydropowerStation3,ChinaCredit:CTG

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Trackinghydropoweragainstnetzero

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Trackinghydropoweragainstnetzero

PAGE

10

11

Hydropower:thebackboneofrenewableenergysystems

AtCOP28inDubai,theworld’sgovernmentscommittedto“triplingup”–increasingtheworld’srenewablegenerationcapacityfrom3.8TWin2022to11.2TWin2030.Alargemajorityofthisincreasewillbefromtherapidlygrowingwindandsolarfleet,withthe

latterneedingtoquintuplefromover1TWtonearly5.5TWineightyearsifthetargetistobereached.

Thisincreaseinvariablerenewablespresentsagridsecurityandflexibilitychallengetosystemoperatorsworldwide.Ofallthelow-carbon

energyoptions,hydropoweristhebestsolution,offeringthemostversatileandeconomicapproachtokeepingthelightsonacrosstheglobe.Ifwe

POWERFLEXIBILITY

ENERGYFLEXIBILITY

HYDROPOWERandPUMPEDHYDRO

CoalandGasfiredplants

NuclearOtherdispatchablerenewables(Geothermalandbiomass)

Chemicalbatteries

GridInterconnections

Demandresponse

HeatPumps

Seconds

Minutes

Hours

Days

Weeks

Seasons

aregoingtoreplacehigh-carbonoptionslikegasandcoal-firedpower,whilealsomeetinghigherdemandforelectricityfromelectrificationofheatandtransport,hydropowerwillneedtoatleastdoubleincapacityby2050.

Fillingtheholeleftbycoalandgashasseveralchallenges:

LARGELYDEPLOYED&COMMERCIALLYTESTED

Sufficientenergyproducedfromnewsourcesisrequiredtoreplacetheoutputfromfossilplants.Thiscanbedoneinlargepartbyvariablerenewables,butadditionalenergyfromnewhydropowerprojectswillalsoneedtobepartofthatmix.

UPCOMINGTECHNOLOGIES

Thedemandforelectricityneedstobematchedbysupply.Fossilgeneratorshavetraditionally

servedthisrolethroughthestoreofchemicalenergyinstockpiledfuel.Hydropowerofalltypes,including

pumpedstoragehydropower(PSH),isavailabletobecalleduponatanytime,providingenergyflexibilitythroughthewaterstoredinitsreservoirs,fedeitherbyriversorpumpedupwhenpowerisplentiful.

Aseriesofservicesarerequiredsuchasfrequencyandvoltagecontrol,or‘blackstart’,thatthermalgeneratorssuchasgasorcoal-firedplantshavetraditionallyprovidedalongsidehydropower.Asfossilplantsareretired,therewillneedtobemoregeneratorstoprovidetheinertiaandotherservices.Investingin

newhydropowerandmodernisingoldercapacityisamajorpartofthiselementoftheenergytransition.

Hydropower’ssuperpowersareflexibilityandresilience,

complementingthevariablerenewableenergysupply.Theflexibilityservicesthathydropowercanprovideareextensiveonalltimescales,fromsecondstoweeksandmonths(see

Figure1:Globalinstalledrenewableelectricitygenerationcapacityinthe

1.5°CScenario,2022and2030

Source:COP28/GRA/IRENA

graphic).Itisaproventechnologywith‘foreverinfrastructure’(subjectto

modernisation),thismakeshydropower

EnergyAgency(IRENA),bothestimateaneedforarounddoubletheamountofhydropowerthaniscurrentlyinstalled

2022

Marine

0.5GW

HydroexclPSH1,255GW

Geothermal

15GW

Windonshore

836GW

Marine

72GW

HydroexclPSH

1,465GW

Bioenergy

343GW

2030

Geothermal

105GW

Windonshore

3,040GW

anindispensabletechnologyinmakingtheenergytransitionsecureandaffordable.

Hydropowergrowth,howmuchisnecessary?

TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)andtheInternationalRenewable

intheirnetzeroscenariosfor2050.So,whatisthepathwaybetweennowandthen?

IRENA’s2050netzeroscenariohasmorethan2,900GWtotalhydropowercapacity,ofwhichalmost420GWisPSH.Tobridgethegapbetweencurrent

3,382

GW

11,174

GW

2,600

Historicdata

Figure2:RequiredcumulativeinstalledcapacityinIRENAtriplingupandnetzeroscenarios(excludingPSH)

2,500

Deliveryrequiredfortriplingupandnetzeroscenarios

2,500GW

Bioenergy

151GW

SolarPV

1,055GW

CSP

7GW

Windoffshore

63GW

SolarPV

5,457GW

Concentratingsolarpower

197GW

Windoffshore

494GW

2,000

GW

1,500

1,465GW

40%

23%

77%

62%

2030Totalshareininstalledcapacity

VRE

Renewablepower Renewablepower

VRE

2023Totalshareininstalledcapacity

1,000

500

installedcapacityandthesefigures,wewouldneedtoaddabout46GWperyear.Thescenariofor2030thatformedthebasisofthe‘triplingup’campaign,suggestedlowernear-termgrowthforhydropower:from1,255GWin2022to1,465GWin2030(excludingPSH)–whichwouldrequirearateofjustover26GWperyear.Thatwouldleaveapproximately1,000GWofnon-PSHcapacitytodeliverovertheperiod2030–2050,orabout50GWperyear,

plusapproximately10GWperyearofPSHinaddition.

CurrentprogresstowardsnetzeroBasedoncapacitydeliveredinrecentyears,thehydropowerindustrymaymeetthe2030goal.However,therateofdeliverymustdoublefrom2030rightthroughto2050ifhydropoweristoplaytheroleitneedstofortheplanettoreachnetzero.

2023wasadisappointingyearfor

deliveryofnewhydropowercapacity.IHAhasidentifieddeliveryof13.7GWofnewcapacity,ofwhich6.5GWisPSH.Itisimportanttonotethattherewillinevitablybevariabilityfromyear-to-yearinthecapacitydeliveryfigures,

duetothenatureoflargeinfrastructuredevelopments.Nonetheless,thefive-yearrollingaverageofdeliveryshowsadownwardtrendsince2016.

Howwillcapacitydevelopinthemediumtolongterm,andhowmuch

morewillthepipelineneedtogrowtoreachnetzerocontributions?

Fig5showsIHA’sassessmentofbuiltcapacity,pipelineandpotential

acrosstheregionsoftheworld.Thisisshowingsteadyprogresstowards2050goals.Nevertheless,growthneedstoaccelerate,andthepipelineneedstobeexpandedrapidlyifwearetodeliveradoublingofcapacityby2050.

Figure3:Newinstalledhydropowercapacity

50

Newinstalledcapacity(excludingPSH)

Five-yearrollingaverageofnewinstalledcapacity(excludingPSH)

40

Figure4: 12

NewinstalledPSHcapacity

Five-yearrollingaverageofnewinstalledPSHcapacity

NewinstalledPSHcapacity10

8

30 6

GW

GW

4

20

2

0

10

-2

0

2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

-4

2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Trackinghydropoweragainstnetzero

2024WorldHydropowerOutlook|Trackinghydropoweragainstnetzero

InternationalHydropowerAssociation

PAGE

13

PAGE

14

Figure5:Installed,pipelineandpotentialcapacitycomparedto2050netzerotargets

Global

4000

3500

3000

GW

2500

2000

1500

1000

1.5°CTEMPLIMIT

2°CTEMPLIMIT

NorthandCentralAmerica

355GW

58GW

206GW

SouthAmerica

221GW

98GW

181GW

Europe

75GW

15GW

269GW

Africa

487GW

101GW

42GW

SouthandCentralAsia

303GW

131GW

166GW

EastAsiaandPacific

341GW

197GW

562GW

500

0

Key

RemainingpotentialGW*

PipelineGW

InstalledGW

DatacompiledMay2024

*Excludingpumpedstoragehydropower

‘Big100’pipelineprojects

Thereisnoshortageofhydropowerpotentialglobally,however.Forinstance,whenmodernisinghydropowerassets,thiscanresultinanincreaseincapacityofaround10%.

Thereisalsotheopportunitytoinstallgeneratorsatdamsthatwereoriginallyconstructedfornon-powerreasonssuch

getaprojectbuilt,itisstillasignificantamount,especiallyasitisatthehighestriskofanystageofaproject.Withoutthisearlyoutlay,whichcanadduptotensofmillionsofdollars,theprojectscannotgetofftheground.Theseinitialcostsandchallengesmeanthatitisimportantthatpolicymakersplanand

ThedistributionoftheseprojectsisheavilyweightedtowardsAsia(bothEastAsiaandPacific,andSouthandCentralAsia).Intermsofprojectsize,whilemostprojectsareatthesmallerendofthescale,thereisatailofverylargeprojects,upto10GW.

Thenextstepistoanalysehowclose

peryearofnon-PSH/PSHcapacityafter2030,andtomaintainthatrateconsistentlyfor20years.Projectsthatarecurrentlypendingapprovalcanbeexpectedtocomeonstreamin5–10yearsfromnow.Ifweassumethat75%

ofthecapacity(90GW)inthatcategory

asirrigationordrinkingwatersupplyandtherearestillmassiveopportunitiesforgreenfieldconstructionofconventionalhydropower,particularlyinregionslikeAfricaandAsia.

Finally,thereishugeavailabilityforoff-riverpumpedstoragesites.TheAustralianNationalUniversityAtlasidentifiesover600,000potentialoff-rivergreenfieldsitesgloballyoutside

protectedareas.Evenifonly1in100ofthoseareviable,thatisstillsufficientadditionalcapacityseveraltimesover.

Turningthatpotentialintodeliverableprojectsrequiresupfrontinvestmentinthedevelopmentprocess.Whilethespendingrequiredtomatureaproject

incentiviseforthelongterm(seealso

sectiononPlanningforSustainableHydropower).

Whetherthehydropowerindustrywillbeabletostepuptothelevelofdeliveryrequiredforthenetzerotrajectorydependsonthehealthofthepipelineofprojectsunderdevelopment.

TotestthisIHAhastakenanin-depthlookattheBig100.Thesearethe

100largestgreenfieldprojectsinthepipeline,includingPSHprojects.WehaveexcludedtheGrandIngaprojectintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongofromtheanalysis,asitissolargeitwouldsk