东南亚漂浮式光伏市场技术评估-

AproductoftheUSAID-NRELPartnershipContractNo.IAG-19-2115

ENABLINGFLOATINGSOLAR

PHOTOVOLTAIC(FPV)DEPLOYMENT

FPVTechnicalPotentialAssessmentforSoutheastAsia

PrateekJoshi,EvanRosenlieb,andSikaGadzanku

NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory

May2023

NREL/TP-5R00-84921

NOTICE

ThisworkwasauthoredbytheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL),operatedbyAllianceforSustainableEnergy,LLC,fortheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)underContractNo.DE-AC36-08GO28308.FundingprovidedbytheUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)underInteragencyAgreementNo.IAG-19-2115.TheviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheDOEortheU.S.Government,oranyagencythereof,includingUSAID.

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)reportsproducedafter1991andagrowingnumberofpre-1991documentsareavailable

freeviawww.OSTI.gov.

CoverphotofromiStock12776646.

NRELprintsonpaperthatcontainsrecycledcontent.

iii

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

Acknowledgments

TheauthorsthankScottBartosfromtheU.S.AgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)’sRegional

DevelopmentMissionforAsia(RDMA)forfundingthisworkandprovidingguidanceduringits

development.Throughoutthedatacollectionandscenariodevelopmentstagesofthisstudy,theauthorsbenefitedfrominformativediscussionsandcorrespondencewith:ApisomIntralawan(MaeFahLuangUniversity),EddyBlokken(SolarEnergyResearchInstituteofSingapore),BrianEylerandCourtney

Weatherby(StimsonCenter),NoahKittner(UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill),andGunjanGautam(WorldBank).Wealsowishtothankseveralindividualsfortheirpeerreviews,detailed

comments,insights,andcontributionstothisreport:GunjanGautam,CourtneyWeatherby,Donna

Heimiller(NREL),AlicenKandt(NREL),andAdamWarren(NREL).Finally,wewouldliketothank

LizBreazealeforeditorialassistance.Anyerrorsandomissionsarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthors.

iv

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

ListofAcronyms

ASEAN

AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations

EIA

UnitedStatesEnergyInformationAdministration

FPV

floatingsolarphotovoltaic

GW

gigawatt

GWh

gigawatt-hour

GRanD

GlobalReservoirandDamDatabase

IEA

InternationalEnergyAgency

IRENA

InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

MW

megawatt

NREL

NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory

PV

photovoltaic

RDMA

RegionalDevelopmentMissionforAsia

RE

renewableenergy

SAM

SystemAdvisorModel

SEAsia

SoutheastAsia

SERIS

SolarEnergyResearchInstituteofSingapore

TWh

terawatt-hour

USAID

UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment

v

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

ExecutiveSummary

SoutheastAsia(SEAsia)isaregionwithgrowingenergydemandandincreasingdevelopmentoffloatingsolarphotovoltaic(FPV)systems,whichcanhelpmeetcountries’renewableenergy(RE)andenergy

securitygoals.TheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)hassetaregionaltargetof35%REininstalledpowercapacityby2025(ASEAN2022),andFPVisanincreasinglypopularoptiontohelp

meetthisobjective.Forinstance,FPVdevelopmentcanavoidsomeofthechallengesfacedbyground-mountPVsuchascompetinglanduse,andcantakeadvantageofthesignificantexistingandplannedhydropowercapacityintheregionviaco-locationandhybridization.

Thisstudyusesahigh-levelgeospatialassessmentmethodologytoestimatethetechnicalpotentialfor

monofacialandbifacialFPVonreservoirsandnaturalwaterbodiesinthe10countrieswithinASEAN.

TechnicalpotentialconsistsofthesuitablewaterbodyareaforFPVdevelopment(km2),thecapacityof

FPVthatcouldbeinstalledonthissuitablearea(MW),andtheannualenergythatcouldbegenerated

fromtheseinstallations(GWh/year).Thisfirst-of-its-kindFPVtechnicalpotentialassessmentforSEAsiacanhelppolicymakersandplannersbetterunderstandtherolethatFPVcouldplayinmeetingregional

energydemandandcouldultimatelyhelpinforminvestmentdecisions.High-levelresultsforFPV

technicalpotentialinSEAsia,underavarietyofassumptions,arevisualizedin

FigureES-1

forreservoirsand

FigureES-2

fornaturalwaterbodies.

FigureES-1.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialforreservoirsinSEAsia

Note:Theseresultsassumefixed-tiltmonofacialFPVpanels,witha50-mminimumdistance-from-shoreand1,000-mmaximum

distance-from-shorebuffer.Thedatasetexcludeswaterbodiesthataremorethan50kmfrommajorroadsandwaterbodiesthat

arewithinprotectedareas.Theseresultsdonotreflectafilterfordistance-from-transmission.

Atotalof7,301waterbodieswereincludedinthefinaldatasetforSEAsia,whichexcludeswaterbodiesthataremorethan50kmfrommajorroadsandwaterbodiesthatarewithinprotectedareas.Ofthistotal,therewere88reservoirs(includinghydropowerandnon-hydropower)and7,213naturalwaterbodies.Fortheregion,FPVtechnicalpotentialrangesfrom134–278GWonreservoirsand343–768GWonnaturalwaterbodiesbasedonthemethodology,assumptions,availabledata,anddistance-from-shoresensitivities

vi

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

thataredescribedingreaterdetailthroughoutthereport.FormonofacialFPV,averagenetcapacityfactorsrangefrom15.6–16.0%andvarybycountryandwaterbodytype.

Inourmediansensitivitycase(50mminimumdistance-from-shoreand1,000mmaximumdistance-

from-shore),thistranslatestoroughly825GWofFPVpotentialacrossbothwaterbodytypesexamined.Undercurrentpolicies,theinstalledcapacityofrenewablesinASEANcountriesisexpectedtoreach235GWby2030,with81GWofutility-scalesolar,and1,311GWby2050,with841GWofutility-scale

solar(IRENAandASEANCentreforEnergy2022).Thus,FPVcanplayanimportantroleintheregion’srenewableenergybuildout.

FigureES-2.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialfornaturalwaterbodiesinSEAsia

Note:Theseresultsassumefixed-tiltmonofacialFPVpanels,witha50-mminimumdistance-from-shoreand1,000-mmaximum

distance-from-shorebuffer.Thedatasetexcludeswaterbodiesthataremorethan50kmfrommajorroadsandwaterbodiesthat

arewithinprotectedareas.Theseresultsdonotreflectafilterfordistance-from-transmission.

Country-specificresultsforFPVtechnicalpotentialarediscussedinthereportanddifferinlevelofdetail

basedonavailabledata.Forinstance,transmissionlinedatawasonlyavailableforCambodia,Laos,

Myanmar,thePhilippines,Thailand,andVietnam.Forthesecountries,asecondsetofresultsfor

technicalpotentialwasalsogeneratedbyexcludingwaterbodiesmorethan25kmfromatransmissionline;althoughforsiteswithlargeFPVtechnicalpotential,a25kmdistancefromthetransmissionlinemightnotbeabarriertodevelopment.Thistransmissionlinefilterdoesnotsignificantlyimpactthe

technicalpotentialresultsforreservoirs,andtheimpactfornaturalwaterbodiesvariesbycountry.

ThoughthisworkfocusesonSEAsia,themethodologyforcalculatingFPVtechnicalpotentialmight

alsobeapplicableforcountriesinotherregions,withadaptations.Duetodatalimitations,theseresultscanbeviewedasaconservative,upper-boundestimateofFPVtechnicalpotentialintheregion.Site-

specificdataonwindandwaves,bathymetry,seasonalvariationinwaterlevels,andsedimentationwerenotavailableonascalethatwouldallowforconsistentandreproduceablecountry-andregion-wide

geospatialanalysis.Rather,thisstudyisintendedasastartingpointforfurtheranalysisandtoprovide

vii

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

somedata-driveninsightstohelpclarifythepotentialroleofFPVinmeetingSEAsia’selectricitydemand,sustainabilitytargets,andenergysecurityobjectives.

Theprimaryintendedaudiencesforthisworkinclude:

1.DecisionmakerswithinenergyministriesandutilitiesconsideringthepotentialforFPVtosupportbroaderenergyanddevelopmentgoals

2.EnergysystemmodelerstaskedwithexploringandquantifyingthepotentialvaluethatFPVinstallationsmayprovidewithinaspecificenergysystem

3.DevelopersthatmightbeinterestedinbuildingFPVintheSEAsiaregion

viii

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

TableofContents

1Introduction 1

1.1FPVBackground 2

1.2RelevantPriorResearch 2

2Methods 4

2.1DataCollection 4

2.2ScenarioDevelopment 5

2.3TechnicalPotentialCalculation 6

2.3.1FPVSuitableArea 6

2.3.2FPVCapacityandGeneration 7

3Findings 9

3.1SummaryofRegionalResults 9

3.2SummaryofCountry-SpecificResults 10

4Discussion 13

4.1SEAsiaContext 13

4.1.1WaterbodyType 13

4.1.2FPVTechnologyType 13

4.2Country-SpecificResults 13

4.2.1Brunei 14

4.2.2Cambodia 15

4.2.3Indonesia 16

4.2.4Laos 17

4.2.5Malaysia 18

4.2.6Myanmar 18

4.2.7Philippines 19

4.2.8Singapore 20

4.2.9Thailand 21

4.2.10Vietnam 22

5Conclusion 24

References 25

Appendix 32

BruneiResults 32

CambodiaResults 33

IndonesiaResults 34

LaosResults 35

MalaysiaResults 36

MyanmarResults 37

PhilippinesResults 38

SingaporeResults 39

ThailandResults 40

VietnamResults 41

ix

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

ListofFigures

FigureES-1.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialforreservoirsinSEAsia v

FigureES-2.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialfornaturalwaterbodiesinSEAsia vi

Figure1.CountriesincludedintheFPVtechnicalpotentialassessment 1

Figure2.Representativeschematicsofstand-aloneFPV(top)andhybridFPV-hydropower(bottom)

systems 2

Figure3.High-resolutionsolarresourcedataavailableforSEAsia 3

Figure4.WaterbodyandFPVtechnologytypesincludedinanalysisscenarios 5

Figure5.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialforreservoirsinSEAsia 12

Figure6.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialfornaturalwaterbodiesinSEAsia 12

Figure7.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinBrunei 14

Figure8.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinCambodia 15

Figure9.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinIndonesia 16

Figure10.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinLaos 17

Figure11.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinMalaysia 18

Figure12.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinMyanmar 19

Figure13.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinthePhilippines 20

Figure14.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinSingapore 21

Figure15.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinThailand 22

Figure16.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinVietnam 23

ListofTables

Table1.DataAvailabilityforFPVTechnicalPotentialinSEAsia 4

Table2.SelectFPVTechnologyAssumptions 7

Table3.BreakdownofWaterbodyTypesIncludedinFinalDataset 9

Table4.ResultsforallSEAsianCountries 10

Table5.ResultsforIndividualSEAsianCountries 11

1

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

1Introduction

SoutheastAsia(SEAsia)isaregionwithgrowingenergydemandandincreasingdevelopmentoffloatingsolarphotovoltaic(FPV)systems.FPVhasemergedasarenewableenergy(RE)optionthatcanhelp

meetcountries’energysecurityandREobjectives,particularlyforthosewithabundantsolarand

reservoirresources.TheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)hasaregionaltargetto

achievea35%shareofREininstalledpowercapacityby2025,andindividualcountrieshavesettheir

ownambitiousREanddecarbonizationobjectives(ASEAN2022).FPVisanincreasinglypopular

solutiontohelpmeetthesegoals,asitcanavoidsomeofthechallengesfacedbyground-mountPVsuchascompetinglanduse,andcantakeadvantageofthesignificantexistingandplannedhydropower

capacityintheregionviaco-locationandhybridization.

Thisstudyusesahigh-levelgeospatialassessmentmethodologytoestimatethetechnicalpotentialforFPVinthe10countrieswithinASEAN,displayedin

Figure1.

Technicalpotentialreferstothe

achievablegenerationfromatechnologygivenvariousenvironmental,topographical,andland-use

constraints.Itprovidesanupper-boundestimateforagivenREresourceandtypicallyprecedesmore

detailedeconomicandmarketpotentialanalyses(Lopezetal.2012).FPVtechnicalpotentialassessmentstypicallycharacterizethesuitablewaterbodyareaforFPVdevelopment(km2),thecapacityofFPVthatcouldbeinstalledonthissuitablearea(measuredinmegawatts(MW)),andtheannualenergythatcouldbegeneratedfromtheseinstallations(measuredingigawatt(GW)hoursperyear(GWh/year)).Thisfirst-of-its-kindupper-boundestimateofFPVtechnicalpotentialforSEAsiacanhelppolicymakers,planners,anddecisionmakersbetterunderstandtherolethatFPVcouldplayinmeetingregionalenergydemand.

Figure1.CountriesincludedintheFPVtechnicalpotentialassessment

ThisreportbeginswithabriefbackgroundonFPVtechnologyandoverviewofrelevantpriorresearch(Section

1.1

andSection

1.2)

.Wethendiscussthemethodologyandassumptionsforthestudy(Section

2)

,aswellasthefindingsforsuitablewaterbodyarea,capacity,andgeneration(Section

3)

.Finally,weconcludewithadiscussionofthedifferentscenariosassessedandtherelevanceoftheseresultsforboth

theentireregionandindividualSEAsiancountries(Section

4)

,alongwithconsiderationsfornextstepsandfuturework(Section

5)

.DetailedcountryresultsareprovidedintheaccompanyingAppendix.

2

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

1.1FPVBackground

FPVsystemsareagrowingapplicationofsolarphotovoltaics(PV)inwhichthetechnologyissitedon

waterbodiessuchaslakes,reservoirs,andwatertreatmentponds(AcharyaandDevraj2019).Thesolar

panels,whicharethesameasthoseusedinground-mountorrooftopinstallations,aremountedtofloatingstructuresandcanbeinstalledasstand-alonesystemsorsystemshybridizedwithhydropowerdams

(Figure2)

.MoreinformationonFPVcanbefoundintheFloatingSolarHandbookforPractitioners(WorldBankGroup,EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram,andSolarEnergyResearch

InstituteofSingapore2019).FPVcanhavenumerousbenefitssuchasreducedland-use,increasedeaseofinstallation,reducedwaterevaporation,andincreasedpanelefficiency(Gadzankuetal.2021a).

Figure2.Representativeschematicsofstand-aloneFPV(top)andhybridFPV-hydropower(bottom)systems

Source:Leeetal.(2020)

1.2RelevantPriorResearch

PrevioustechnicalpotentialassessmentsforFPVhavebeenconductedataglobalscale(Leeetal.2020;Jinetal.2023),focusedonspecificcountriesorregionssuchastheUnitedStates(Spenceretal.2019),

Spain(Lopezetal.2022),Brazil(CamposLopesetal.2022),theEuropeanUnion(Kakoulakietal.2023)andAfrica(GonzalezSanchezetal.2021),orfocusedonspecificsites(Agrawaletal.2022;Popaetal.

2021).Thesetechnicalpotentialassessmentsprimarilyfocusonartificialwaterbodies–mainly

3

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

hydropowerreservoirs,withsomefocusonnon-hydropowerreservoirs(e.g.,otherartificialwaterbodiessuchasdrinkingwaterreservoirsorwatertreatmentponds).Hydropowerreservoirsarepromisingsites

forFPVdevelopmentduetoexistingelectricgridinfrastructureandvariousoperationalbenefits,suchaslowerPVcurtailmentwhentransmissioniscongestedandmoreoptimaluseoflimitedwaterresources

(Gadzankuetal.2022).TherehasbeenalimitedfocusonFPVsitedonnaturalwaterbodiessuchas

inlandlakes,partlyduetoconcernsaboutpotentialecologicalimpacts(Exleyetal.2022).Recently,therehasalsobeenmoredevelopmentofFPVsitedoffshoreornearshoreinsaltwater(Voetal.2021).

TheFPVtechnologyinthesepriorassessmentshasbeengenerallylimitedtofixed-tiltmonofacialpanels.However,thereisgrowingresearchandinterestintoFPVsystemsthatutilizebifacialpanelandtrackingtechnologies(HasanandDincer2020;Widayatetal.2020;Ziaretal.2020),bothofwhichhavebecomeincreasinglycommonintheland-basedsolarPVindustry.Bifacialpanelscanabsorbsunlightfrombothsides,therebyincreasingthepoweroutputofthePVinstallation.Trackingtechnologies,whichcanbe1-axisor2-axis,allowthepanelstoadjusttheirtiltandorientationthroughoutthedayinordertomaximizesolarirradiationexposureandconsequentlyenergyproduction.

Duetolimitedlandavailability,substantialpre-existingandplannedhydropowerdevelopment,abundantREresources,andambitiousREtargets,SEAsiancountrieshavesignificantinterestinFPV.Several

countriesintheregion,includingIndonesia,Vietnam,andThailand,aredeployingbothstand-aloneand

hybridFPVsystems.However,barrierstoFPVdeploymentintheregionremain.Theseinclude

economic,environmental,cultural,regulatory,ortechnicalbarriersthatpotentialadoptersmayface(Gadzankuetal.2021b).

ThisstudybuildsoffpreviousresearchbyconductinganFPVtechnicalpotentialassessmentforSEAsia

andexpandingthewaterbodytypesconsideredbyincludingnon-hydropowerreservoirsandinland

naturalwaterbodies,inadditiontohydropowerreservoirs.ThisstudyalsoexpandstheFPVtechnology

typesconsideredbyincludingbifacialPVpanelsinadditiontomonofacialpanels.Finally,thestudyuseshightemporalandspatialresolutionsolarirradiancedataspecificallydevelopedfortheSEAsiaregion

thatwasnotavailableforprevioustechnicalpotentialassessments

(Figure3)

.ThisstudydoesnotconductaneconomicanalysisofFPV,thoughFPVsystemcostestimatesforselectcountriesandtheUnited

StatescanbefoundinChopraandSagardoy(2021)andRamasamyandMargolis(2021),respectively.

Figure3.High-resolutionsolarresourcedataavailableforSEAsia

Source:Maclaurinetal.(2022)

4

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

2Methods

2.1DataCollection

Thisstudyrequireddataonwaterbodies,supportinginfrastructure,andenergyresources.WebuiltoffthedatagapassessmentconductedinLeeetal.(2020),narrowingthegeographicscopetofocusonSEAsiaandexpandingthewaterbodyscopetoincludenon-hydropowerreservoirs(e.g.,reservoirsforagriculture,drinkingwater,recreation,orotherpurposesnotrelatedtoelectricitygeneration)andnaturalwaterbodies(e.g.,lakes),inadditiontohydropowerreservoirs(i.e.,reservoirsusedforelectricitygeneration).Wealsousedupdateddatasetswhereavailable.

Table1

summarizestheinputsandthedatasourcesused.

Table1.DataAvailabilityforFPVTechnicalPotentialAssessmentinSEAsia

Input

Data

Available?

DataSource(s)Used

CountriesCovered

DataProvided

Waterbodies

Hydropowerreservoirs

Yes

GlobalReservoirand

DamDatabase(GRanD)

ASEAN

Spatiallocationandextentofwaterbody

Non-hydropowerreservoirs

Yes

GranD

ASEAN

Spatiallocationandextentofwaterbody

Natural

waterbodies

Yes

HydroLAKESDatabase

ASEAN

Spatiallocationandextentofwaterbody

Bathymetry

No

N/A

N/A

Waterbodydepth,includingseasonalvariations

Sedimentation

No

N/A

N/A

Rateofsedimentdepositstoestimatesite’sFPVviability

Waves

No

N/A

N/A

Waveheightandfrequencytoestimateimpactonpanels

Wind

No

N/A

N/A

Windspeedanddirectiontoestimatewindloadsonpanels

Protectedareas

Yes

REDataExplorer

ASEAN

Nationalparks,conservationareas,wildlifesanctuaries,etc.

SupportingInfrastructure

Transmissionlines

Yes

REDataExplorer,

StimsonMekong

InfrastructureTracker

Cambodia,Laos,Myanmar,the

Philippines,

Thailand,Vietnam

Spatiallocationsoftransmissionnetwork

Majorroads

Yes

REDataExplorer

ASEAN

Spatiallocationsofmajorroads

EnergyResource

Solarresource

Yes

REDataExplorer

ASEAN

Globalhorizontalirradiance,directnormalirradiance,etc.

Waterresource

No

N/A

N/A

Historicalannualvariationsinwaterresourceacrossseasons

Dataonprotectedareas,transmissionlines,majorroads,andsolarresourcesareaggregatedfromvarious

5

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

primarysourcesandcanbedownloadedfromREDataExplorer,ageospatialvisualizationandanalysis

tooldevelopedbyUSAIDandNREL.AdditionaltransmissionlinedataissourcedfromtheMekong

InfrastructureTracker(StimsonCenter2020).Dataonhydropowerandnon-hydropowerreservoirsis

fromtheGlobalReservoirandDamDatabase(GDW2019),anddataonnaturalwaterbodiesisfromtheHydroLAKESDatabase(Messageretal.2016).TheGlobalReservoirandDamDatabase(GranD)is

consideredtohavereliabledataonreservoirprimaryuse,althoughthequalityofattributedataonthetypeofreservoircanvarysignificantlyacrosscountriesandtheGranDdatasetmightnotaligncompletelywith

othersourcesofdataonwaterbodiessuchastheMekongInfrastructureTracker.However,weusedthisdatasettoremainconsistentwiththemethodologyinLeeetal.(2020)andbecauseitcoversallthe

ASEANcountries.

Datanotavailableincludewindandwaveinformation,bathymetry,seasonalvariationinwaterlevels,and

sedimentationdataforallwaterbodytypes,alongwithtransmissiondataforcertaincountries.The

analysisdidnotconsiderreservoirattributesindetail,whichcanbeafocusoffutureanalysis.Thesolarresourcedataisbasedoffsatellitemeasurementsandisavailablefrom2015–2019,witha10-minute

temporalresolutionanda2kmx2kmspatialresolution.DetailsonhowthisdatasetwasdevelopedcanbefoundinMaclaurinetal.(2022).

2.2ScenarioDevelopment

Basedontheavailabledata

(Table1)

anddiscussionswithvariousstakeholders,wedevelopedscenariosforthetechnicalpotentialassessmentusingdifferentcombinationsofwaterbodytypesandFPV

technologies.Twodifferentwaterbodytypes(reservoirsandnaturalinlandwaterbodies)arepairedwithtwodifferentFPVtechnologytypes(fixedtilt:monofacialandfixedtilt:bifacial)foratotaloffour

technicalpotentialscenarios.Reservoirsincludebothhydropowerandnon-hydropowerreservoirs.A

summaryofthewaterbodyandFPVtechnologytypesincludedandexcludedfromthescenariosisdisplayedin

Figure4.

Figure4.WaterbodyandFPVtechnologytypesincludedinanalysisscenarios

FPVinstallations,whichtypicallyusemonofacialpanels,areanemergingapplicationforbifacial

technology.Ifbifacialpanelsareused,thedownward-facingpanelcancatchsunlightthatisreflectedoffthesurfaceofthewaterorthefloatingplatform,whichcouldpotentiallybeamplifiedwithinstalled

reflectivedevices,thusincreasingtheelectricityoutputoftheFPVplant(HasanandDincer2020;

Widayatetal.2020;Ziaretal.2020).FPVdevelopersusuallyseektominimizethesizeandcostofthefloatingplatformbyincreasingthepowerdensityoftheinstallation.Usingbifacialpanels,alongwithpackingthepanelsmoretightly,couldhelpaccomplishthisobjective.Generally,themodulepricesfor

6

ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.

bifacialPVpanelsarehigherthanthatofmonofacialpanels.Forinstance,ananalysisbyCleanEnergy

Associatesestimatesthatabifacialmodule’spricecouldbeapproximately3.3%higherthanamonofacialmodule’sprice(Balyon2021).ExactpricedifferencesdependonthePVpanelmanufacturerandthe

country.Furtheranalysisisneededtoassessthetrade-offsbetweenincreasedgenerationversusincreasedmodulepriceforbifacialPVcomparedtomonofacialPVpanels.Suchatechno-economicanalysisis

beyondthescopeofthisreport.

One-axistrackingFPVwasexcludedfromthescenariosfollowingdiscussionswithstakeholders,who

generallyviewedthistechnologyaslessrelevantfortheSEAsiaregionbasedongeographicandcost

considerations(i.e.,one-axistrackingPVtechnologyprovidesasmallerincreaseinenergyproduction

overfixed-tiltPVinregionsclosertotheequatorcomparedtoregionsfurtherfromtheequator,andthissmallerincreaseinenergyproductionmightnotbeenoughtooffsettheincreasedcapitalcostsoftrackingsystems).OffshoreFPVwasexcludedfromthescenariosduetoalackofbothsufficientdataandan

establishedmethodologyforassessingitstechnicalpotential.However,offshoreFPVtechnicalpotentialcouldbeanareaforfutureresearchgiventhatitisanemergingtechnologywithgrowinginterestintheregion.

2.3TechnicalPotentialCalculation

ThissectiondescribesthemethodologyusedforcalculatingFPVtechnicalpotential.Theresultsfromthisassessment,foreachofthescenariosdescribedinSection

2.2,

arepresentedinSection

3.

2.3.1FPVSuitableArea

Inthedataset,weexcludewaterbodiesinprotectedareasandmakeassumptionsaboutthearea

developableforFPVbasedondistancesfromtheshoreandmajorroads,andinsomecases,transmissionlines.Thoughwaterbodiesinprotectedareascouldsometimesdifferfromprotectedwaterbodies,wedidnothavesufficientdatatodistinguishbetweenthetwoandwethustreatthemasequivalentintheinterestofcaution.Forallwaterbodytypes,weapplysensitivitiesforminimum(0,50,and100m)andmaxim