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Tiger–AppleinChina Date:
SAVEDATE\@"yyyy-MM-dd"
2015-03-10
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BDAUpdateonAppleinChina
China’ssmartphonemarkethasbeenslowingdownandwillgrowataCAGRof7%inthenextfiveyears;Appletargetshigh-endsegment,whichaccountsfor~15%oftotalshipments
TheshipmentofsmartphoneinChinahasenjoyedrapidgrowthtill2013(CAGR10-13:68%),mainlydrivenbythewaveofreplacingfeaturephones,andmulti-deviceusageonalighterextent.However,thegrowthhassloweddownin2014duetolimitedpotentialfromreplacingfeaturephone
ReplacementofFeaturePhone:Sincemajortelecomoperatorswerelicensedtooperate3Gmobileinternetin2009,manufacturersgraduallyintroducedalargeamountofsmartphonedevicesintothemarket.However,morethan90%featurephoneshavealreadybeenreplacedtill2014,whilemulti-devicesusageonlycontributeslimitedgrowth
Multi-DevicesUsage:Besidesreplacingfeaturephone,increasinglysmartphoneusersinChinaadoptedtwoorevenmoresmartphonesintheirdailylife
Usersadoptedmulti-devicesmainlyduetothefactthatdifferentnetworksoftelecomoperatorshavetheirownadvantages.Forinstance,ChinaMobilehasthebestvoicecallquality,whileChinaUnicomhasthebest3Gdatanetwork.
Usersmayalsousedifferentsmartphonestoseparatetheirworkandlife,theywouldliketocontactcolleaguesorcustomerswithonenumberwhilecontactingfamilyandfriendswithanotherone
Note:Theshipmentincludessmuggledproducts.
WepreliminarilydeemthattheChina’ssmartphonemarketwillslowdowninfuture(CAGR14-19:7%)mainlyduetothelackofgrowthstimulus
Thefrequencyofchangingsmartphonewillbecomethemajordriver,whilethefrequencywillnotsignificantlyimproveinthenextfewyearsbasedonourfocusgroupdiscussion.Oursurveywillsuggestadistributionofreplacefrequency,whichwillhelpusimproveourmarketforecast
Inaddition,we’vebeenalsodoingmoreresearchtoimproveourconclusiononthemarketforecast
MarketBreakdownbyPriceBand:Ingeneral,thesharesofallpricebandslargelyremainunchangedinthepastthreeyears.Appleaddressed~15%oftotalsmartphoneshipmentsinChina,i.e.high-end(USD>580,RMB>3,500)andsub-high-end(USD410-580,RMB2,500-3,500)segments.Apple’smainbattlefieldisthehigh-endsegment,whichgrowsmoreswiftlythanotherpricebands.Applewillbebenefitfromthistrend
OfficialChannelsvs.SmuggledShipments:SmuggledshipmentshavebeenfadingoutduetonarrowedpricegapaswellasstrictercontrolofCustoms
CompetitionLandscape:AppleandXiaomigrabbedsharesfasterthanothersin2014,whileSamsung’ssharedroppedapparently
Apple:ApplehasenjoyedarecordhighgrowthlastyearinChina.Ithasdominatedthehigh-endmarketbylaunchinglargescreendevices,sinceitsmajorcompetitorSamsunghasnosignificantinnovationin2014
TheshipmentofsmartphonesoverRMB3,500hasbeengrowingconstantlyandhastakenabout11%oftotalsmartphonesshipmentin2014Q4whichwasonly4%in2012Q1.High-enddeviceswerealmosttheonlysegmentthatexperiencedsucharobustgrowthduringlastthreeyears,andthisprovidedAppleanopportunitytoexpanditsshareinsmartphonemarket
Furthermore,withinthehigh-endsegment,Applekepttakingcompetitor’ssharebylaunchingnewmodels.Thechartbelowshowsthemarketsharewithinhigh-endsegment,priortoSep2014,AppleandSamsungwerequiteclosetoeachother.However,withthelaunchoflargescreeniPhone,i.e.iPhone6andiPhone6Plus,Applestartedtodominatehigh-endmarket
Xiaomi:Asanewlyintroducedbrandin2011,Xiaomihasexperienceddramaticgrowthinpastyearsanditbecamethesecondlargestsmartphonesupplierin2014thankstoitslowpriceanduniquemarketingstrategy.GivenXiaomi’sdifferentpricefocusfromApple’s,wethinkXiaomiisunlikelytoposesignificantthreattoAppleinthenearfuture
Xiaomimainlytargetsmedium-tolow-endmarkets,anditsshareinpriceranges(RMB600-1,000,andRMB1,000-2,500)increasedapparentlyin2014
Samsung:Samsung’sgloryin2013wasattributedtoitsinitiativeoflargescreens,butitsoverallmarketsharehasbeensqueezedfrom19%to16%in2014,asSamsung’sfullproductlinedidn’tshowanysignificantimprovementandhasbeenfacingchallengesfromiPhoneinhigh-endmarketandfromdomesticplayersinmedium-tolow-endmarket.
InpricerangesofRMB600-1,000andRMB1,000-2,500,SamsungisfacingthepressurefromXiaomishownintheabovetwocharts,whileinthesegmentofRMB2,500-3,500,Samsung’ssharewaserodedbydomesticbrands
Huawei:Huawei’smarketsharekeptgrowing,andby2014,ittookabout9%ofthemarket.ThisachievementwasmainlydrivenbythesuccessofMate7andHonorSerieswhicharepricedaroundRMB3,000.Huaweimainlytargetsmedium-endmarket,butitsMate7hassomepresenceinhigh-endmarket.
Lenovo:SimilartoHuawei,Lenovoexperienceddramaticgrowthfrom2011to2013benefitingfromtheboomingofsmartphonemarket,butonly1pptgrowthin2014.ThemarketsegmentofbelowRMB600seemstobetheonlyhighlightin2014toLenovo.InthepricerangeofRMB600to2,500,LenovowaslosingitssharetoitslocalpeersincludingXiaomi,OPPOandVivo.
KeySuccessfulFactors:Ourpreliminaryfindingsshowproductisanoverwhelminglyimportantfactorinfluencingconsumers’decisionswhenpurchasingsmartphones;brandandpricearealsoessentialforconsumers.Applehasclearadvantagesinproductandbrandoverothers,whileXiaomidoesbetterinvalueformoney.ThankstoApple’scompetitiveedgesintermsofKSF,users’stickinesstoAppleisthehighest
Product:
Basedonourfocusgroupfindings,iPhoneisperceivedtoperformthebestintermsofproduct,forexample,fastandsafeoperatingsystemandeasytouse
XiaomihasgooduserexperienceingeneralbutsomeuserscomplainthatXiaomiisunsatisfyingintermsofheatdissipation
ConsumerswidelyregardSamsung’sproductqualityispoorsinceitsscreeniseasytobreakandthebackboardofSamsung’sphonesareusuallymadeofplastic,resultingininferioruserexperience
Brand:
Apple,XiaomiandSamsungaretheleadingbrands,enjoyinghighbrandawareness,buttheirbrandimagesarevarious.
Apple’sbrandimageisprettypositiveinconsumers’perception,representinginnovationandfashion
Xiaomiwelldeliversabrandimageofvalue-for-moneyanduniquemarketingstrategy
Samsung’sbrandperceptionislargescreen,butpoorquality
Price:
SomeconsumersfromlowertiercitiesbelieveiPhoneisexpensive.HighpricemakessomeconsumersstepbackfromiPhone
Xiaomiissoldatalowerpricethancomparabledevices.Itsproductshavehighervalue-for-moneyinconsumers’perception.Itspriceisattractivetothemassmarket.
AsSamsung’scompetitorsarecatchingup,nosignificantimprovementisdiscernedinSamsung’sproducts,soitsadvantageinvalue-for-moneyisgettingweaker.
Inconclusion,users’loyaltytoiPhoneisthehighest,sincealmostallcurrentiPhoneusersinFGDsaidtheywoulddefinitelycontinuechoosingiPhoneinnextpurchase,especiallyintier1and2cities.Incontrast,theloyaltyofotherbrandsislowandsomeoftheirusersmayturntoiPhoneinfuture.(Wewillobtaintheresultofusersurveylaterandanalyzeitinourfinalreport)
Consumerscarelessaboutthepurchasingconvenienceofsmartphonescomparedtoproductquality,sotheirdecisionsarelessinfluencedbychannels.Incontrast,channelsrelyonbestsellingproductstoboostthesales,soleadingmanufacturershavethebargainingpoweroverchannels
Therearethreetypesofdistributionchannels:self-ownedchannel(retailstoresorofficialwebsites),telecomoperators,anddistributors.Allplayersusesimilarchannelstructuresandemploy4-5samelargescaleddistributorsaswellasthreebigtelecomoperatorstoselltheirproducts
Telecomoperatorsplayedanimportantroleindistributingsmartphonesinthepastseveralyears,sincetheirsubsidypolicyencouragedconsumerstoreplaceoldcellphones.Alongwithtelecomoperator’sdecreasingsubsidy,intensifyingcompetitionandhighersalestarget,telecomoperatorsgreatlypreferdistributingapopularproductwithhighbrandawareness
Eco-systemexertslittleinfluenceonconsumers’purchasingdecision
Applicationstoreshasnegligibledifferenceamongdifferentsystemsorbrands
Currentlymostmainstreamapplicationstoresprovideatremendousnumberofapplications,coveringallthefrequently-usedapplications
Smartphoneusers’requestscanbemetbyeverymajorapplicationstore,sinceonlyafewpopularapplicationsarefrequentlyused
Theaverageamountofapplicationsinstalledperuserisaround30and6-8ofthemarefrequentlyusedeveryday
Theinfluenceofsmarthomedeviceswillbelimitedonsmartphonemarket;Xiaomi’splaninthesmarthomewillnotposesignificantthreattoApple
AlthoughXiaomiseemsmoreaggressiveinlaunchingsmarthomedevices,Applehasalsobeenworkingonthismarket.Xiaomihasn’tbuiltapparentadvantagesinthisarea
Xiaomilaunchedmanydevices,forexample,MiBand,MiHeadphoneandiHealthsmartBloodPressureMonitor,inhighprofileandhasalreadyinvestedin27companiestobuilditsecosystemofsmarthomedevices,includingoneofthelargestlocalhomeappliancemakerMideaGroup
AppleisalsoquicklydevelopingitsHomeKitandhascooperatedwithChina’sanothermajorhomeappliancemanufacturer,Haier
Mostapplicantand3Cproductmanufacturersaswellasinternetcompaniesareinvestingintheindustryofsmarthome.Xiaomiindeedhasplansinpartneringwithothers,butithasaleadingpresence
ThesmarthomedevicesXiaomireleasedareprettypreliminaryandinanearlystage,andindustryexpertsbelievethatXiaomicouldn’thaveground-breakingmovementsinnext3-5years
Infocusgroupdiscussions,consumersdon’tthinksmarthomedeviceswouldaffecttheirphonebuyingbehavior,andwewillconfirmthisthoroughoursurvey
Go-to-marketStrategy
Appledoesn’tpre-installanyapplicationsiniPhoneinChina,includingBaiduandYoukuTudou.AlthoughitiscooperatingwithBaidu,YoukuTudouandWeChatinChina,itisverypreliminary,samewithitscooperationwithGoogle,YouTubeandFacebookinglobalmarket
AppleaddedBaiduasiOSsearchengineinitsSafari,YoukuTudoutoiOSvideosharingoptionandWeChattoiOSsocialnetworksharingoptiontoimproveChineseusers’experience.ButitisalsoduetothefactthatGoogle,YouTubeandFacebookarenotallowedtouseinChina
ThemainchangeofApple’sgo-to-marketstrategyinChinareflectsonitsbiggeradvertisinginvestment,thefastgrowingnumberofAppleStoresanditscloserrelationshipwithChina’slocaltelecomoperators
ApplehasbeenlaunchingstrongeradvertisingcampaigninChina
ThereoncewasnoadvertisementatallforAppleinChina,butnowpeoplecanseeitonTV,inthemetroandontheInternet
ThemarketingdepartmentofAppleChinahasmoredecision-makingpowernow.Inthepast,theadvertisementcouldonlybemadeintheheadquarteroffice,butnowtheChineseteamcanmakeadvertisementthemselves,targetingtheChinesemarket
China’sAppleStoreisrapidlyexpandingtoenablemoreconsumerstoexperienceApple’sproductsandculture
Itgrowsfrom10AppleStoresinearly2014to13byDec2014.And5moreAppleStoreswereopenedinthefirstthreemonthsof2015
Appleplanstoreachthetotalnumberof40AppleStoresinChinainthenexttwoyears
AppleiscooperatingmorecloselywithlocalChinesetelecommunicationcompanies.
ApplestartedtocooperatewithChinaUnicomin2010,thenwithChinaTelecomin2012andwithChinaMobilein2013
ThankstoApple’sapparentcompetitiveadvantagesinhigh-endsmartphonemarket,Appleislik
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