(高清版)GBT 41214-2021 空间环境(自然和人工) 地磁活动的预报方法

空间环境(自然和人工)I Ⅲ 1 1 1 1 15.1地磁场变化 1 25.3K指数(单台站3h范围指数) 2 25.5aa指数(共轭振幅指数) 45.6Dst指数(暴时扰动指数) 4 4 55.9am指数 65.10PC指数 7 7 86.1概述 8 86.3中期预报 86.4长期预报 8 9 9 97.3基于物理原理的预报方法 98预报效果评估 98.1预报误差定义 9 99遵从准则 9.1基本原理 9.2预报报告 9.3编制文档 9.4发布 9.5存档 Ⅱ 附录A(资料性)地磁指数可用的网址 附录B(资料性)发布空间天气预报和/或现报的网址 附录C(资料性)不同种类技巧评分定义 附录D(资料性)与本文件领域相关的有用文献(本文件未引用) 参考文献 Ⅲ本文件按照GB/T1.1—2020《标起草。本文件等同采用ISO16698:2019《空间环境(自然Mb)中期预报(数周至数月);c)长期预报(半年至一个太阳活动周)。1本文件描述了用于预报时间尺度从短期(数小时到数月)到长期(数月至数年)的地磁指数的预报Glon地理经度(Geographiclongitude)IMF行星际磁场(Interplanetarymagneticfield)Mlat地磁纬度(GeomagMlon地磁经度(Geomagneticlongitude)MHD磁流体动力学(Magnetohydrodynamics)Sq太阳宁静条件下25.3K指数(单台站3h范围指数)值。每个观测站采用各自固定的标准规则描述R值与K值的转换关系。表1给出了尼梅克观测站R0123456789注：nT即纳特斯拉，为电磁场单位。表2计算地磁Kp指数的13个观测站NE说明曲角，加拿大锡特卡，美国 勒威克，设得兰群岛，英国1969年取代阿金库尔3表2计算地磁Kp指数的13个观测站(续)NE说明埃斯克代尔米尔，英国1988年取代鲁德斯科夫弗雷德里克斯堡，美国1957年取代切尔滕纳姆温斯特，德国尼梅克，德国1998年取代维特文哈特兰，英国1957年取代阿宾格1981年取代图兰吉1978年取代安伯利5.4.2Kp指数(行星性3h范围指数)8个值。取值范围从0到9,中间共分28级：0。,0+,1-,1。,1+,…,9-,9%。其值越大，扰动越强。推导：由表2中列出的13个观测台站观测得到的K指数通过转换表进行标准化，该转换表通过引入的复杂程序建立。先求出每个台站的标准化的K指数Ks指数，然后用Ks指数的加权平均值确5.4.3ZKp指数(行星性日范围指数)ZKp是行星性日范围指数，是每天8个Kp值的和。5.4.4ap指数(等效行星性3h幅度指数)地磁扰动的测量单位为纳特斯拉(nT),Kp指数与地磁扰动间并不是线性关系，相反，引入的ap指023456795.4.5Ap指数(等效行星性日幅度指数)Ap指数通过计算每天(UT)8个ap指数的平均值获得，每天(UT)一个值。4得。观测站信息见表4。两个观测站测得的K指数通过转换表转换回振幅，见表5。aa指数通过南北NEλ格林威治，英国阿宾格，英国哈特兰，英国1957~图兰吉，澳大利亚1979~0123456789推导：Dst指数定义为表6中列出的4个观测站测得的H分量扰动变化D₁(i=1～4)的平均值除表6计算Dst指数的4个观测台站E圣胡安，美国植香山，美国5对称和对称的高时间分辨率(1min)扰动场，引入了纵向不对称扰动指数(ASY)和对称扰动指数(SYM),并导出了H分量和D分量的扰动指数。推导：ASY/SYM指数由选定的中纬度的6个观测站(见表7)D;(4)通过计算非对称磁场的最大值和最小值之间的范围计算得出非对称扰动指数ASY-H和表7计算ASY/SYM指数的6个观测台站NEE旋转角檀香山，美国图森，美国弗雷德里克斯堡，美国阿拉木图推导：极光电集流指数由位于北半球极光区的12个观测站(见表8)观测的H分量的地磁变化得表8计算极光电集流指数的12个观测站和停用的3个观测站NEE说明阿比斯库，瑞典 巴罗，美国杰克汤森学院，美国6表8计算极光电集流指数的12个观测站和停用的3个观测站(续)NEE说明2007年12月开始雷沃古尔，冰岛1996年停止巨鲸河，俄罗斯1984年7月停止1984年9月开始推导：用于计算am指数的观测站根据它们的经度位置分成9组(见表9),其中5组位于北半球，马加丹，俄罗斯1967~1969~女满别，日本1959~1959~2002~哈特兰，英国1959~尼梅克，德国1959~尚邦拉福雷，法国1996~1975~弗雷德里克斯堡，美国1959~7表9计算am指数的观测站(续)NE纽波特，美国1975~1959~图森，美国1959~1986~1978~1959~马丁·德·维维安，法国1986~图兰吉，澳大利亚克尔格伦群岛，法国1959~海克罗泽群岛，法国1973~1959~阿根廷岛，乌克兰1959~1973~南乔洽亚岛，英国表10计算PC指数的观测站观测站，国家/地区E图勒(卡纳克),格陵兰岛8地磁指数预报的准确性和预报方法取决于预报的时间尺度。6.2～6.4介绍了几种现有的预报方模型(MHD模拟等。大多数预报方法需要实时的太阳风参数和准实时的地磁观测作为输入。根据太●类型(4)见参考文献[25]。●类型(3)见参考文献[32];9前一个时间间隔的数据作为输入(见参考文献[67]);另一种使用太阳风参数作为输入(见参考文献有一些神经网络模型和深度学习模型适用于数天至一个太阳黑子活动周的时间尺度的预报。其地磁指数预报结果应公开可供第三方(如：对预报结果感兴趣的个人或机构)进行评估和应用。1)数据类型；2)数据源；3)数据的时间分辨率；4)数据点数；5)数据采集时间。1)预报数据类型；2)预报数据的时间；3)预报制作时间。1)预报方法类型(从第6章所列的四类预报方法中选择，否则应进行简要描述);2)联系点。9.5存档https://www.gfz-potsdam.de/kp-indehttp://isgi.unistra.fr/about_indices.php(aa,am,Kp,AEhttp://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/wdc/Sec3.html(AE,Dst,ASY/SYM,RT-A/ftp://ftp.space.dtu.dk/WDC/ind/natural-hazards/geomagnetism(RT-Uhttps://www.swpc.noaa./ISTP/diahttp://www.ises-spaceweatherhttp://hirweb.nict.go.au/Space_We/models/modelinfo.php?modehttp://www.lund.irf.se//cism/和http://lasp.colorado,edu/cism//SolarC(资料性)不同种类技巧评分定义C.1二分量预报表C.1列出了公式(C.1)～公式(C.5)中使用的列联表。表C.1预报结果和观测结果比较的列联表是否是x(命中)y(漏报)否z(虚报)w(正确否定)真技巧评分(T)定义为：Gilbert技巧评分(G)定义为：Heidke技巧评分(H)定义为：C.2持续变量预报均方误差技巧评分(S)定义为：E——均方误差；f.——第i次预报值；x;——第i次观测值；第1～n次观测值的平均值。Planet.SpaceSci.1986,34(1)pp.77-92[2]AyalaSolares,J.R.,H.-L.Wei,R.J.Boynton,S.N.WalkerandS.A.Billings(2016),Modelingandpredictionofglobalmagneticdisturbanceinnear-EarthspusingNARXmodels,SpaceWeather,14,8[3]BakerD.N.,BargatzeL.F.,ZJ.Geomag.Geoelectr.1986,38(11)pp.1[4]BakerD.N.,WeigelR.S.,RiglerF.,McPherronRSun-to-magnetospheremodelinJ.Atmos.Sol.-Terr.Phys.2004,66pp.15-16,pp.1491-1497[5]BargatzeL.F.,BakerD.N.,McpherronR.L.,HonesE.W.MagnetosphsponseforManyLevelsofGeomagnetic-Activity.J.Geophys.Res.1985,90(NA7)pp.6387-6394[6]BlanchardG.T.,McPherronR.L.AnalysisoftheLinear-ResponseFunctionRelatingAltoVbsforIndividualSubstorms.J.Geophys.Res.1995,100(A10)pp.19155-19165[7]ClauerC.R.Thetechniqueoflinenetospherecoupling.In:SolarWind-MagnetosphereCoupling,(KamideY.,SlavinJ.ScientificPublishi[8]ClauerC.R.,McPherronR.L.,SearlsC.,KivelsonM.G.Solar-WinZoneGeomagnetic-Activity.Geophys.Res.Lett.1981,8(8)pp.915-918[9]DoggettK.A.(1993),Anoperationalforecastverratory,inSolar-Terrestrialpredictions,IV,ProceedingsofaWorkshop,editedbyJ.Hr[10]DoggettK.A.(1994),VerificationofNOAASpaceEnviJanuary-31December1994,[11]DoxasI,HortonW.Magnetosphericdynamicsfromadynamicsmodel.Phys.Plasmas.1999,6(5)p[12]DoxasI.,HortonW.,SmithJ.P.Aphysicsbasednonlineardynamicalwinddrivenmagnetosphere-ionospheresystem.Phys.Chem.Earth(C).1[13]DoxasI.,HortonW.,SmithJ.P.Aphysicsbasednonlineardynawinddrivenmagnetosphere-ionospheresystem.Phys.Chem.Earth(C).1[14]DryerM.,AkasofuS.I,KroehlH.Wsolar/interplanetary/magnetosphere/ionosphereconnection:astrategyforpredictionofgeomagneticstorms.AdvancesAstro.Sci,1986,pp.58.[15]EcherE.,AlvesM.V.,GonzalezW.D.Geoeffectivenessofinterplanetaryshocksduringsolarminimum(1995—1996)andsolarmaximum(2000).Sol.Phys.2004,221(2)pp.361-380dexandpolarcappotential.In:SolarWind-MagnetosphereCoupling,(KamideY.,SlavinJ.A.,eds.).TerraScientificPublishingCo,1986,pp.[17]FotiM.A.,ArizmendiC.M.RandnessAnInterdisciplinaryJournalontheComplexGeometryofNature.1997,5(1)pp.169-173[18]FrancqC.,MenvielleM.Amodelfortheapplicationtoprediction.Geophys.J.Int.1996,125(3)[19]FreemanJ.,NagaiA.,ReiffP.,DenigW.,Gu(1993),Theuseofneuralnetworkstopredictmagnetosphricforecastmodel,inProceedingsofArtificialIntelligenWorkshop,editedbyJ.A.Joselyn,H.LundstedtandJ.Trolinger,pp.167[20]FreemanJ.W.,WolfR.A.,SpiroR.W.,HausmanB.A.,BalesB.timemagnetosphericspecificationfinalreport.RiceUniv,Houston,Texas,1994[21]GannonJ.L.,LoveJ.J.,FribergP.A.,StewartD.C.,Lisowskiport,2011-1030,10p.Gavrishchaka,V.V.andGanguli,S.B.(2001),Supportvectormachineasanefficienttoolforhigh-dimensionaldataprocessing:Res.2011,106(A12)pp.29911-29914.Availablea[22]GavrishchakaV.V.,GanguliS.B.Optimizationoftheneural-networkgeomagneticforforecastinglarge-amplitudesubstorme[23]GehredP.A.(1996),tionstatistics,inNOAATechnicalM[24]GholipourA.,LucasC.,AraabiB.N.Blackboxmodelingofmagnetosphericdynamicstoforecastgeomagneticactivity.SpaceWeather—theInternationalJournalofRescarchandApplications.[25]GleisnerH.,LundstedtH.Responseoftheauroralelectrojetstothesolarwwithneuralnetworks.J.Geophys.Res.1997,102(A7)pp.14269-14278AnnalesGeophysicae-AtmospheresHydrospheresand[27]GlcisnerH.,LundstedtH.AuroralelectrojetpredictionswithGeophys.Res.2001,106(A11)pp.2[28]GleisnerH.,Lundsdatausingtime-delayneuralnetwor[29]GleisnerH.,LundstedtH.,WintoftP.Theresponseoftheauroralelectrojwindmodelledwithneuralnetworks.J.Geophys.Res.1996[30]GoertzC.K.,ShanL.H.,SmithR.A.Predictionofgeomagnetic[31]GonzalezA.L.C.Aunifiedviewofsolarwind-magnetospherecouplingfunctions.Planet.[32]GonzalezW.D.,DalLagoA.,DeGonzaleztionofpeak-DstfromhaloCME/magneticcloud-speedobservations.J.Atmos.Sol.Terr.Ph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