Barclays-Global-Macro-Thoughts-All-eyes-on-US-inflation-此为英文文档

FOCUS

FICCResearch

GlobalMacro

GlobalMacroThoughts

AlleyesonUSinflation

13May2024

AjayRajadhyaksha

+12124127669

ajay.rajadhyaksha@

BCI,US

MaxKitson

+44(0)2035552386

max.kitson@

Barclays,UK

KaanhariSingh

+85229032651

kaanhari.singh@

BarclaysBank,HongKong

Wherenotedinthesourcenotes,theviewsexpressedwithinthisreportaretakenfrompreviouslypublishedresearch.Forfurtherdetail,includingimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertifications,pleasefollowthelinksoneachpageandonpage8.

Thisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreports

preparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforitsownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.Suchtradinginterestsmaybecontrarytotherecommendationsofferedinthisreport.

PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE9.

Centralbankdivergencecontinues;watchAsiancurrencies

•WeexpectUSheadlineandcoreCPItorise0.39%and0.34%(m/mSA)inApril1

oThisshouldtakeannualheadlineandcoreCPIto3.4%y/yand3.7%y/y,bothslightlybelowMarch

oWeexpectthisinflationdatatotranslateinto0.28%m/mforcorePCE(from0.32%inMarch)

•IfourAprilforecastisright,corePCEinflationisrunningat4.1%annualizedsofarthisyear1

oThey/ycomparisonsgetmuchharderinH22024,giventhesoftreadingsinH22023

oEvenwithaslowdowninm/minflation,ourQ4/Q4corePCEforecastis2.9%,sameasend2023

•Inotherwords,wenowexpectvirtuallynoprogressonUScoreinflationacross20241

oAtthesametime,theAtlantaFedistracking4.2%realGDPgrowthinQ2;3.5%isfromdomesticfinalsales

oLastweek’sjumpinjoblessclaimsislargelyfromNY,whichhasseensharpincreasesfollowedbyreversals

•IncontrasttotheUS,weseefurtherprogressoninflationinEurope,withHICPandcoreat2.4%and2.7%respectively1

oWebelievenominalwagegrowthiseasing(4%inQ1);thereisnosignofawagespiralinGermany,ItalyorFrance

oTheECBlookssettocutinJune,andsodoestheBoEafteritsmostrecentmeetinglastweek

1GlobalEconomicsWeekly:Intermission(10May2024)

313May2024

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Wednesday’sUSCPIwillbethenextkeymarkettrigger

Wethinkthat"supercore"measureswilleaseinApril,butremainelevatedona

3mmabasis

Source:BLS,HaverAnalytics,Bloomberg,BarclaysResearch

USCPIInflationPreview(April2024CPI):Limitedprogress(9May2024)

Excludingusedcars,weexpectcoregoodspricestohaveremainedinmodestdeflation

Source:BLS,HaverAnalytics,Bloomberg,BarclaysResearch

USCPIInflationPreview(April2024CPI):Limitedprogress(9May2024)

413May2024

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LessonsforthepropertysectorfromaChinainvestortrip

•OuranalystsrecentlyconductedaninvestortriptoBeijingandsomeYangtzeRiverDelta(YRD)cities1

oWebelievehomebuyersremainverycautious;summersalesinJulyarelikelytorecordanotherdownturn

oAveragesell-throughratesforthepropertyprojectouranalystsvisitedwasonly30-50%(inNingbo)

oWeforecast30%y/ydeclineinhomesalesinQ2and15-20%inH22024;badbutbetterthanQ1’s50%y/ydecline

•Inourview,theMarchsalesreboundwasduetopriceconcessionsandnewlaunches,butsentimentfadedinApril1

oPricecutsinsecondarymarketshavestillnotended,whichisaddingtopressureonpricesofnewhomes

oHomebuyersarereluctanttoincreaseleverage,withaveragedownpaymentsfarabovethe20%minimum

oAMCsarestillactivelyreducingpropertyexposureduetoinsolvencyandtheweakqualityofprojects

•ThePolitburo’sfocusonreducinginventoryandrecentmeasurestorestrictnewlandsalesshouldhelp1

oButwestilldon’tseealightattheendofthetunnelforChina’stroubledpropertymarkets

oMeanwhile,weseefurtherservicesdeflation,withhotelandflightpricesdownsignificantly,despitethetourismrecovery2

oWeexpectsoftactivityandinflationdatathisweek,withPPIinflationcontinuingtofall(-2.4%y/y)2

1ChinaProperty:Sightonsite:BeijingandYangtzeRiverDelta:Searchingforabottom(6May2024)

2GlobalEconomicsWeekly:Intermission(10May2024)

13May2024

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BigTechEPSsurprisewashigherthanitslong-termtrend,achangefromQ4-23

Q1earningscameinstrong,supportedbyBigTech

SPXQ1EPSsurprisehasreachedlevelsnotseeninthelasttwo-and-halfyears

Source:LSEGData&Analytics,Bloomberg,BarclaysResearch

USEquityInsights:1Q24EarningsUpdate:ConsumerCrossroads(8May2024)

Source:LSEGData&Analytics,Bloomberg,BarclaysResearch

USEquityInsights:1Q24EarningsUpdate:ConsumerCrossroads(8May2024)

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Makingsenseofitall

.Q1EPSgrowthy/y(ex-energy)istracking-2%inEuropeand9%intheUS,bothbetterthanexpected1

oMarginshaveagainoutperformed;earningsareoutpacingsalesforthethirdstraightquarter

oThereareafewsignsofconsumerstressinrestaurants/retail,butnotenoughtomatteratamacrolevel

oAtthesametime,volatilityhasfallenaswewaitforUSinflationdata,helpingstocksgrindhigherlastweek

.Twoweeksago,wewereworriedaboutrisingUSyieldsandasurgingUSDpressuringtheJPYandCNY

oThencameMoFintervention,theFOMCmeeting,andasofter-than-expectedpayrollreport

oButtheJPYhasresumedweakeningagainsttheUSDinthelastweek,andsohastheCNY

oTheinterestrategapbetweentheUSandJapanseemstoolargetobepermanentlyoffsetbyintervention2

oAndiftheUSDkeepsstrengthening,itmakesitharderforthePboCtoholditsquasi-pegagainstthedollar

.ThereareseveralpossiblepathsfortheUSmacro-economygoingforward3

oOnepossibilityisthattheUSisweakeningjustenoughforasoftlanding;marketshaveembracedthisexplanation

oAsecondisthattheUSisstilltoohot,inwhichcasehigheryieldsandastrongerUSDposechallengesformarkets

oThethirdisthattheUSisataninflectionpoint,andabouttoweakensharply(suggestedbyISMservicesandsomeretailerslastweek)

oWethinkthesecondismostlikely;moreimportantly,marketsseemveryconvincedofjustoneofthesethreeoutcomes

.Givenourinflationforecastandmacrooutlook,wearecomfortablestillbeingshortlongerUSyields4

oEquitiesisahardercall;stockshavebeenresilient,arenearkeylevelsandcouldeasilyrallyonslightlybetterinflation

oButifinflationisstrongerthanconsensus(ourcall),thehigheryields/strongerUSD/weakermarketsdynamicofafewweeksagoshouldresurface

oWepreferstayingincashandbeingoutrightshortlongerUSyieldsforathirdstraightweek

BARCLAYS

1EquityMarketReview–LearningsfromQ1earnings(10May2024)

2FX&EMWeeklyThoughts:Noroomforerror:CPIasymmetriesfavourthedollar(12May2024)

Restricte-lIy24)13May2024

Selectedresearch

.GlobalEconomicsWeekly:Intermission(10May2024)

.GlobalRatesWeekly:Calmbeforethestorm(9May2024)

.EquityMarketReview–LearningsfromQ1earnings(10May2024)

.FX&EMWeeklyThoughts:Noroomforerror:CPIasymmetriesfavourthedollar(12May2024)

.USEquityInsights:1Q24EarningsUpdate:ConsumerCrossroads(8May2024)

.USCPIInflationPreview(April2024CPI):Limitedprogress(9May2024)

.BankofEngland:Teasinganeasing(9May2024)

.ChinaProperty:Sightonsite:BeijingandYangtzeRiverDelta:Searchingforabottom(6May2024)

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13May2024

AnalystCertificationsandImportantDisclosures

AnalystCertification(s)

We,AjayRajadhyaksha,MaxKitsonandKaanhariSingh,herebycertify(1)thattheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubject

securitiesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchreportand(2)nopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.

ImportantDisclosures:

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BarclaysResearchisproducedbytheInvestmentBankofBarclaysBankPLCanditsaffiliates(collectivelyandeachindividually,"Barclays").

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913May2024

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ImportantDisclosuresContinued

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BarclaysCapitalInc.(BCI,US)

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1013May2024

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1113May2024

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Disclaimer(continued)

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