银行：基本面仍处寻底过程中

基本面仍处寻底过程中经营业绩：上市银行整体业绩承压，城商行业绩相对较好从资产端来看，上市银行扩表速度放缓。2024Q1上市银行总资产同比比+10.12%，增速较2023年-1.02PCT，主要系有效融资需求不足。截至2024Q1末，上市银行贷款占生息资产比为58.38%，占比较2023年末+0.44PCT。负债端存款增速放缓，截止2024Q1末，上市银行存款同比+7.43%，较2023年-3.26PC息差业务：需求主要集中在靠近政策端的领域，息差短期依旧年-15.39BP。资产端收益下行主要系重定价压力加大叠加有效融资需求不投资建议：基本面逐步寻底，估值有望逐步回升当前市场普遍关注银行息差水平持续走低，近期监管也持续强调维护银行降准降息有望落地，我们看好银行业后续表现。 2请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 4 4 7 8 8 9 103.信贷需求主要集中在靠近政策领域的对公端 10 10 134.代理+理财类业务拖累整体中收 154.1中收表现进一步走弱，主要 15 18 185.1不良率稳中有降，关注 18 206.投资建议：基本面逐步寻底，估值有望逐步回升 23 24 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14图表29：上市银行累计生息资产收益率（测 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 19 20 20 20 21 22 22 22 23 244请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明行营业收入增速持续下探。2023年上市银行营收同比-行以及民生银行营收增速位居后三位，增速分别为-14.图表1：营收增速环比下行上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%较23A变化-1.18%-1.79%-9.42%-0.34%-0.82%-3.01%7.29%2.33%-5.63%9.42%-5.70%-3.70%-5.58%7.19%-0.63%6.45%0.98%-2.83%3.88%-0.94%-0.58%-5.26%8.64%-2.49%7.06%0.31%-0.04%9.46%0.69%23Q3-3.55%-1.27%-0.54%7.05%-1.72%-2.62%-7.56%较23A变化-1.18%-1.79%-9.42%-0.34%-0.82%-3.01%7.29%2.33%-5.63%9.42%-5.70%-3.70%-5.58%7.19%-0.63%6.45%0.98%-2.83%3.88%-0.94%-0.58%-5.26%8.64%-2.49%7.06%0.31%-0.04%9.46%0.69%23Q3-3.55%-1.27%-0.54%7.05%-1.72%-2.62%-7.56%-2.11%-5.59%-4.30%-2.54%-7.69%4.13%-3.21%5.45%9.15%-5.18%5.26%-5.76%9.55%8.44%-10.62%3.68%-3.52%8.24%-3.84%0.44%0.52%-3.85%2.61%0.43%-2.91%23Q1-1.09%0.96%2.19%5.51%3.51%-1.47%-4.94%-3.85%0.38%-6.72%-1.58%-3.68%-2.40%2.53%-6.92%5.51%8.45%3.12%7.55%-7.12%9.71%-3.01%5.26%5.02%8.72%4.03%-0.64%7.23%-3.26%22Q3-5.18%-4.55%-1.59%-3.61%-2.17%7.79%5.34%3.37%0.14%-16.87%4.15%0.43%0.65%8.71%3.23%0.52%-8.39%-4.75%21.88%6.72%7.03%-4.88%2.04%-2.21%23H1-2.35%-0.59%0.83%8.88%4.77%2.03%-0.35%-2.05%-7.52%-3.58%-4.15%-2.47%-1.67%-3.71%4.68%-1.56%3.28%9.29%-3.12%6.09%-5.66%2.52%-8.52%5.24%5.30%3.60%3.07%0.53%4.87%-3.03%22A-7.11%-4.91%-3.51%-3.33%-4.68%5.08%4.08%3.34%-1.24%-15.60%0.51%-0.73%-2.15%6.21%0.00%9.00%9.67%4.26%-5.54%9.58%4.56%2.03%-8.82%8.62%8.82%-7.23%5.30%4.57%-3.43%0.10%-6.00%23A-3.73%-1.79%0.03%6.41%0.31%2.25%-1.64%-2.60%-8.05%-1.16%-5.19%-3.92%-0.64%-8.45%4.29%0.66%6.40%5.28%-3.50%6.33%-4.80%7.22%8.46%7.11%-9.50%9.70%0.88%-4.96%8.03%-1.89%2.25%0.21%-5.93%3.84%-1.93%-3.57%24Q1-3.41%-2.97%-1.76%-3.01%-0.03%-4.65%4.69%-5.72%-6.80%4.22%-9.62%-4.34%-14.03%7.85%2.83%5.78%-2.51%3.50%-0.92%6.27%7.89%2.47%4.44%2.11%3.68%5.53%5.17%2.56%7.59%9.84%-2.88%0.32%工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行招商银行中信银行浦发银行民生银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行北京银行南京银行宁波银行江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行西安银行苏州银行厦门银行齐鲁银行重庆银行江阴银行常熟银行苏农银行张家港行青农商行紫金银行渝农商行股份行城商行农商行图表2：各上市银行营业收入累计同比增速整体归母净利润同比增速下行，城商行与股份行增速有所增长。从归母净利润同比增速分别为-2.03%、0.00%、7.06%、0.45%，增速较2023年分别-4.15PCT、+2.96PCT、-0.48PCT、-9.03PCT，股份行与城商行的表分别为21.11%、19.80%、18.74%。郑州银行、渝农商6请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明------------------图表3：上市银行归母净利润同比增速继续下行上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00%-10.00%-15.00%图表4：各上市银行归母净利润累计同比增速22A23Q123H123Q323A24Q1较23A变化工商银行建设银行农业银行交通银行邮储银行3.49%7.06%7.45%5.02%5.22%0.02%0.26%0.50%5.63%5.22%3.36%3.48%0.78%4.51%5.20%3.30%4.99%2.45%0.97%2.71%3.94%0.63%-2.78%-2.78%-2.17%-1.63%-2.90%-1.35%股份行招商银行浦发银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行-3.46%2.58%3.23%6.37%25.26%7.67%7.82%-18.35%3.70%-8.93%5.34%4.05%9.91%9.12%-23.32%-3.49%-4.92%3.32%5.07%6.52%9.19%-30.83%-0.60%-9.53%3.00%5.15%8.12%6.22%7.91%-28.28%-15.61%-8.96%5.30%2.06%-1.96%-1.96%0.25%-5.63%-3.10%0.39%0.61%2.26%5.12% 城商行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行厦门银行齐鲁银行重庆银行28.90%26.11%28.24%8.04%5.48%-24.92%-13.55%26.13%4.38%8.22%24.83%28.11%3.25%8.68%8.20%20.84%2.69%4.89%5.26%27.20%-2.29%26.29%25.10%-19.14%8.60%21.00%4.38%4.50%2.09%25.21%-2.93%26.06%20.81%9.21%-19.18%7.10%21.36%0.68%3.49%0.51%-8.92%23.15%9.57%-23.62%6.30%4.95%5.14%6.29%6.29%-3.65%21.11%5.75%-18.57%3.79%4.35%4.04% 2.03%2.76%农商行青农商行渝农商行26.88%25.39%29.42%29.00%-24.41%5.61%7.49%20.60%5.58%5.50%9.18%20.82%8.17%5.70%9.52%21.10%8.84%5.80%7.72%6.24%1.16%6.10%7.08%5.40%-10.81% 他非息收入对净利润的贡献度分别为+9.93%、-13.00资产规模扩张主要驱动在于国有行与城商行，二者生息资产规模扩张对净利润贡献图表5：上市银行2024Q1业绩归因-5.00%-20.00%8请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明图表6：上市银行2023年业绩归因上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%-20.00%图表7：优质区域城农商行综合表现最佳25%-杭州.常熟20%.常熟.青岛.苏农..苏农.●..●.浦发..浦发.青农商张家港●宁波浙商.南京5%-张家港●宁波浙商.南京5%-.兴业-20%25%贵阳.兴业-20%25%贵阳-5%-.-5%--10%-渝农商-15%-.郑州.-20%-上市银行扩表速度减慢，同业资产为扩表的重要动力。从上市银行来看，截至图表8：上市银行扩表速度放缓16.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%2020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03图表9：同业资产扩张较快25.00% 20.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00%-10.00%总资产同比增速贷款同比增速金融投资同比增速同业资产同比增速2020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/122023/022023/042023/062023/082023/102023/122024/02截至2024Q1末，上市银行贷款占生息资产比图表10：上市银行贷款增速走低20.00%18.00%16.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03图表11：贷款占生息资产比重上升65.00%60.00%55.00%50.00%45.00%40.00%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/0310图表12：金融投资同比增速下滑4.00%图表13：金融投资占生息资产比重下滑45.00%40.00%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/033.45PCT、-2.16PCT。截止202图表14：上市银行存款同比增速下降8.00%6.00%4.00%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/032019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03图表15：上市银行存款占计息负债比重提升2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/032019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/033.信贷需求主要集中在靠近政策领域的对公端8.53%-21.56%-45.30%-93.42%-50%8.53%-21.56%-45.30%-93.42%-50%图表16：上市银行2024Q1新增信贷结构-20%-40%-32.54%-3.45%-2.23%-7.53%新增对公新增零售-32.54%-3.45%-2.23%-7.53% 97.76%85.81%81.90%79.07%85.81%81.90%图表17：上市银行2023Q4新增信贷结构新增对公新增零售票据贴现74.29%74.29%62.22%42.67%-100%-150%12图表18：基建类贷款同比增长13.40%图表20：普惠小微贷款同比增长23.50%普惠小微贷款余额（万亿元）同比增速（%，右轴）3528.00%3027.00%2526.00%2025.00%1524.00%1023.00%522.00%021.00%图表22：制造业中长期贷款同比增长26.50%制造业中长期贷款同比增速45%40%2021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/0图表19：工业类贷款同比增长23.60%252050工业贷款余额（万亿元）同比增速（%，右轴）2021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/0335.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%图表21：绿色金融贷款同比增长35.10%403530252050绿色金融贷款余额（万亿元）同比增速（%，右轴）2021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/0345.00%40.00%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%图表23：开发贷依旧负增54.554.053.553.052.552.051.551.09.00%8.00%7.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00%-1.00%-2.00%13图表24：商品房销售偏弱，企业新开工意愿不高200.00%150.00%100.00%50.00%0.00%-50.00%-100.00%中国:房屋新开工面积:累计同比中国:商品房销售面积:累计同比2023年分别-0.60PCT、-1.80PCT、-0.70PCT。消费贷、经图表25：居民信贷主要由消费贷与经营贷支撑30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03住户贷款同比增速消费贷同比增速经营贷同比增速2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03图表26：按揭贷款增速继续下探45405020.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03-16.35BP、-9.91BP、-12.25BP。整体来看，当前各类银行整14图表27：上市银行累计净息差（测算值）持续收窄2.60%2021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03图表28：上市银行累计净息差（测算值）情况22Q322A23Q123H123Q323A24Q1较23A变化（BP）工商银行建设银行农业银行交通银行邮储银行2.03%2.21%2.00%2.18%2.05%2.03%2.02%-13.38-13.14-11.79-15.62-3.70-9.86股份行招商银行浦发银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行2.41%2.00%2.15%2.81%2.15%2.39%2.00%2.12%2.80%2.12%2.27%2.63%2.20%2.55%2.18%2.47%2.14%2.38%-18.80-9.70-9.18-11.73-5.502.88-31.00-40.37-19城商行北京银行2.01%2.04%2.00%-6.92-5.370.99江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行2.10%2.54%2.02%2.13%2.45%2.02%2.09%2.33%2.02%2.32%2.00%2.30%2.27%-7.58-5.21-17.-11.52长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行2.39%2.51%2.41%2.43%2.00%2.35%2.27%2.35%2.26%2.34%2.27%2.31%2.20%2.18%1.77%2.07%1.22%1.58%-13.18-8.85-13.53-13.96-18.42厦门银行1.41%1.44%1.29%1.30%1.27%1.23%1.06%齐鲁银行重庆银行农商行江阴银行2.14%3.04%2.10%2.95%2.02%3.01%2.94%2.90%2.80%2.76%1.50%-16.07-3.84-12.48青农商行渝农商行2.31%2.00%2.01%2.29%2.01%2.02%2.15%2.10%2.08%2.03%-20.16-12.55-9.26-14.2715发贷款利率为4.27%，环比-8BP；3）存量图表29：上市银行累计生息资产收益率（测算值）下行5.00%4.80%4.60%4.40%4.20%4.00%3.80%3.60%3.40%3.20%3.00%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03图表30：上市银行贷款收益率（测算值）下行上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行6.50%6.00%5.50%5.00%4.50%4.00%3.50%3.00%2019/122020/062020/122021/062021/122022/062022/122023/062023/12图表31：上市银行累计计息负债成本率（测算值）下行2.90%2.70%2.50%2.30%2.10%1.90%1.70%1.50%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03图表32：23年上市银行存款成本率（测算值）提升2019/122020/062020/122021/062021/122022/062022/122023/062023/122019/122020/062020/122021/062021/122022/062022/122023/062023/12164040增速较2023年分别-5.50PCT、-1图表33：上市银行中收表现依旧偏弱30.00% 20.00% 0.00%-10.00%-20.00%-30.00%-40.00%上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03代理+理财类等业务表现偏弱。2023年上市银行代理+理财类业务手续费收入同比-入图表34：上市银行代理+理财类业务表现较弱代理+理财类业务收入增速21A22H122A23H123A增速较23H1变化工商银行-1.15%10.72%-5.34%-11.81%-14.60%-2.79%代理+理财类业务收入占手续费及佣金收入比21A22H122A23H123A增速较23H1变化工商银行11.41%11.16%11.02%10.00%9.95%-0.05%-4.14%-11.39% 0.48%-1.73%-4.14%-11.39% 0.48%-1.73%-6.39%1.22%-25.29%-13.22%-12.36%-3.33%-5.79%-11.82%-16.50%-14.72%-5.31%-13.56%14.85%12.52%17.77%24.07%5.54%0.90%-16.19%-10.67%国有行农业银行中国银行交通银行 -2.227.29%23.98%31.63%33.35%28.68%25.15% -2.227.29%23.98%31.63%33.35%28.68%25.15%28.50%31.86%27.07%25.09%25.62%30.67%25.02%23.72%25.36%28.50%22.77%21.58%22.88%27.75% -0.7-2.1-2.4国有行农业银行中国银行交通银行46%44%8%5%7%5%6% %7%99 %%邮储银行62.93%43.19%40.19%12.63%-2.98%-15.6邮储银行41.08%57.02%49.06%56.80%46.33%-10.93.66%-13.68%-23.86%44.56%32.64%-9.03%96.03%-8.13%-18.38%93.66%-13.68%-23.86%44.56%32.64%-9.03%96.03%-8.13%-18.38%-40.52%-23.15%4.42%-15.86%32.22%-13.78%-12.39%-14.84%-26.49%1.62%-14.92%30.20%2.32%-10.21%15.11%74.49%6.64%-7.75%15.58%8.58%-7.89%2.86%7.66%10.90%-11.19%5.50%2.61%-1224%股份行4.25%-3.44%-10.09%-5.97%.-66.83%中信银行民生银行兴业银行光大银行平安银行浙商银行-2.3-1.135.03%16.00%19.38%15.04%-2.3-1.135.03%16.00%19.38%15.04%25.56%21.34%29.42%32.76%14.95%18.75%10.81%26.58%21.57%29.38%29.89%13.87%21.47%10.63%26.02%19.33%32.64%33.01%16.98%29.82%15.67%26.78%25.35%27.89%30.66%15.82%23.11%17.61%26.01%21.97%30.10%股份行1.9-0.7-3.32.2-6.7中信银行民生银行兴业银行光大银行平安银行浙商银行-26.16%-1.59%0.05%21.93%33.09%25.39%-26.16%-1.59%0.05%21.93%33.09%25.39%-31.65%-28.80%7.52%9.79%-25.20%-65.42%-18.63%8.20%-25.15%-43.48%-9.90%-32.04%-43.26%8.67%-6.81%10.55%-47.97%13.19%城商行青岛银行郑州银行重庆银行宁波银行83.17%76.88%81.37%79.89%78.23%-1.58.13%63.50%62.75%42.62%51.33%58.13%63.50%62.75%42.62%51.33%38.51%1.30.316.747.97%54.13%67.34%44.00%51.62%55.27%46.78%53.01%68.62%城商行郑州银行重庆银行6%63.22%115.56%22.72%363.46%17.36%-37.50%40.67%59.45%-2.30%63.22%115.56%22.72%363.46%17.36%-37.50%40.67%59.45%-2.30%1.03%54.15%44.52%-1.28%31.11%23.10%34.47%2.23%0.95%17.35%-0.47%57.60%-1376%农商行-2323.13%..57%常熟银行渝农商行瑞丰银行江阴银行69.41%72.88%69.34%88.89%75.89%-13.常熟银行22.67%53.87%25.16%63.09%42.57%-20.农商行28.60%55.34%30.10%61.36%35.09%农商行28.60%55.34%30.10%61.36%35.09%59.84%31.17%76.17%-315.65%62.13%瑞丰银行3% 上市银行22.54%-1.45%-7.20%-2.44%-8.99%-6.56% 国有行18.10%4.38%-4.12%-4.66%-11.42%-6.76%汇总股份行32.91%-12.38%-12.68%2.28%-2.66%-4.94% -1.8-2.3-2.625.60%24.90%24.64%75.94% -1.8-2.3-2.625.60%24.90%24.64%75.94%24.09%26.10%26.41%23.59%69.37%38.80%24.44%24.59%21.95%73.40%37.03%25.76%24.66%26.28%68.85%43.45%23.41%21.99%24.40%68.41%39.45% -0.4-4.0汇总国有行股份行城商行农商行5%7%8%4%0%城商行17.34%-8.63%-14.38%-0.08%-18.14%-18.农商行38.22%14.00%33.17%10.73%-1.61%-12.3175%4%23%%5%4%23%%降费导致银行代理/理财类业务收益水平下降。以代理+理财类业务收入与非保本理图表35：上市银行非保本理财产品余额普遍降低 单位：亿元21A22H122A23H123A同比增速-13.38%-13.38%-11.47%-7.34% 7.91%-6.45%25,86423,72322,10917,10814,2639,15322,91421,51619,93217,28812,7709,22617,92415,72116,46316,09812,5457,52421,44020,14020,04717,60312,0698,30118,57115,78617,74816,31113,0237,765建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行-4.49.60-1.89.52-4.49.60-1.89.5210.714.227,77514,56410,12817,46510,6758,7212,45125,48917,2848,67722,64213,12310,1311,49228,81817,0409,61419,28211,8519,4732,41725,30415,9467,50820,96012,2368,8361,76426,67715,7718,84020,67511,8528,8682,107股份行-29.2中信银行民生银行兴业银行光大银行平安银行浙商银行%%0%0%宁波银行3,3233,9113,9673,4604,0211.362,0084572,2264242,0814443.64-2.92,0084572,2264242,0814443.64-2.941,7084791,678480城商行郑州银行%%%重庆银行5245325375445512.66江阴银行193204184177178-3.27%-13.23101,2033491,3753381,303-13.23101,2033491,3753381,3033161,1342931,096农商行-15.9-10.1渝农商行瑞丰银行上市银行212,030112,219211,064103,646203,51199,600187,41186,275196,99789,203-3-10股份行91,77998,49594,79092,55498,8374.%%%276,6292,2946,0042,0276,9692,1537,0971,8596,6292,2946,0042,0276,9692,1537,0971,8596,6541,928-13.6农商行%%图表36：上市银行代理+理财类业务费率明显下降21A22H122A23H123A较23H1变化（BP）工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行交通银行邮储银行0.64%0.77%3.73%0.68%2.80%0.84%2.16%4.88%0.69%2.95%-15-52-42-34-19-193招商银行-21股份行民生银行兴业银行0.47%0.69%0.45%0.39%0.47%0.29%0.38%0.58%0.28%0.45%0.98%0.27%0.35%0.67%0.27%-9-31-1光大银行平安银行浙商银行0.81%0.52%0.77%0.93%0.72%0.69%0.83%0.79%0.66%0.98%0.56%0.81%-11-295城商行宁波银行青岛银行郑州银行重庆银行5.37%0.41%3.74%0.25%3.83%0.24%3.21%0.27%0.92%0.43%2.81%0.23%0.84%0.64%-40-4-821江阴银行0.72%0.74%0.68%0.80%0.72%-8农商行常熟银行渝农商行0.33%0.27%0.30%0.36%0.36%00.35%0.54%0.56%0.70%0.58%-12瑞丰银行0.65%0.62%0.71%0.83%上市银行国有行股份行0.87%0.76%0.69%0.79%0.96%0.65%-30-47-15城商行-19农商行0.45%0.59%0.59%0.70%0.61%-918及市场逐步回暖，上市银行中收有望得到快速图表37：上市银行AUM稳中有进2021/122022/062022/122023/062023/12 2021/122022/062022/122023/062023/121.05%、1.13%，较2023年末分别-0.较2023年中分别+4.33BP、+4.67BP图表38：上市银行不良率稳中有降1.70%1.60%1.50%1.40%1.30%1.20%1.10%1.00%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03图表39：上市银行关注率略有抬升上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2.80%2.60%2.40%2.20%2.00%19图表40：上市银行不良率情况22Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1较23Q4变化（BP）工商银行农业银行建设银行邮储银行交通银行0.83%0.84%0.82%0.81%0.81%0.83%0.84%011股份行招商银行平安银行0.95%0.96%0.95%0.95%0.96%0.95%0.92%110000华夏银行浙商银行兴业银行光大银行浦发银行城商行北京银行上海银行厦门银行长沙银行江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行青岛银行郑州银行重庆银行成都银行齐鲁银行0.86%0.96%0.90%0.77%0.77%0.88%0.81%0.86%0.94%0.90%0.77%0.75%0.88%0.78%0.86%0.92%0.90%0.76%0.76%0.87%0.76%0.80%0.91%0.90%0.76%0.76%0.86%0.72%0.79%0.91%0.90%0.76%0.76%0.84%0.71%0.76%0.91%0.90%0.76%0.76%0.84%0.68%0.74%0.91%0.83%0.76%0.76%0.84%0.66%000400000农商行渝农商行青农商行江阴银行0.78%0.90%0.94%0.98%2.19%0.81%0.89%0.95%0.98%2.09%0.75%0.85%0.94%0.97%0.75%0.88%0.92%0.98%0.75%0.95%0.91%0.98%0.75%0.94%0.91%0.98%0.76%0.93%0.91%0.97%01100收入形势不确定性增加致使存量按揭风险暴露有所增加，再叠加早偿压力抬头拖累按揭余额增长的分母效应，2023年按揭贷款不良率逐步20请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明图表41：上市银行不良率情况对公开发贷不良率按揭贷款不良率2022/122023/062023/12较23H1变化（BP）2022/122023/062023/12较23H1变化（BP）工商银行6.14%6.69%5.37%-1320.39%0.42%0.44%2农业银行建设银行邮储银行交通银行5.48%4.36%4.36%2.80%5.79%4.76%4.76%3.39%5.42%5.64%5.64%2.45%4.99%-3788880.51%0.37%0.47%0.57%0.44%0.50%0.42%0.49%0.50%0.47%0.55%0.42%0.48%0.55%0.37%50-15-10招商银行4.08%5.52%5.26%-260.35%0.35%0.37%2兴业银行渝农商行重庆银行郑州银行宁波银行4.28%7.28%3.08%0.41%0.81%5.13%9.10%2.31%5.29%0.28%0.84%4.92%9.27%2.48%2.59%0.10%3-210.56%0.50%0.77%0.52%0.51%0.57%0.71%0.56%0.67%0.77%56-50-50-270-18图表42：上市银行核销贷款规模稳步提升上市银行核销不良贷款（亿元）90008000600050004000200002018/122019/122020/122021/122022/122023/12图表43：上市银行不良生成率低位运行2.00%1.80%1.60%1.40%1.20%1.00%0.80%0.60%0.40%0.20%0.00%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/12上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/1221请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明图表44：上市银行不良生成率情况21A22H122A23H123A较23H1变化（BP）工商银行建设银行农业银行0.54%0.39%0.45%0.73%0.46%0.49%0.55%0.42%0.48%0.52%0.45%0.48%0.45%0.41%0.39%-7-4-9-1227交通银行邮储银行0.61%0.80%0.35%0.58%0.82%0.32%0.54%0.73%0.38%0.66%0.50%0.29%0.54%0.52%0.36%股份行招商银行浦发银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行0.64%0.80%0.95%0.86%2.02%0.82%0.83%2.07%0.95%0.83%0.95%0.92%0.85%2.10%0.73%2099-4-19城商行北京银行江苏银行贵阳银行杭州银行上海银行成都银行长沙银行青岛银行郑州银行厦门银行齐鲁银行重庆银行0.82%0.71%0.80%0.17%0.88%0.07%0.23%0.40%0.95%0.88%0.85%0.17%0.74%0.01%0.72%-0.20%0.51%0.75%0.88%0.26%0.97%0.05%0.83%2.07%0.05%0.53%0.67%0.79%0.87%0.96%0.79%0.28%0.16%0.37%0.66%0.24%0.66%0.85%0.06%0.79%0.97%0.95%0.45%0.18%0.57%0.83%0.32%0.51%0.81%0.56%128852288-15-4 50农商行江阴银行青农商行渝农商行0.32%0.36%0.42%0.44%2.03%0.57%0.50%0.46%0.38%0.87%2.60%0.02%0.68%0.43%0.59%0.55%2.22%0.23%0.99%0.76%0.40%0.31%0.74%0.92%0.67%2.05%0.38%0.72%41622请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明图表45：上市银行拨备计提力度边际走低4.50%4.00%3.50%3.00%2.50%2.00%2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03上市银行国有行股份行城商行农商行2019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03图表46：上市银行信用成本率走低1.2