全球小麦谷物市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.4

INDUSTRIES

&

MARKETSWorldofwheatCHAPTER

01Overview:grainandwheatGlobalgrainharvestedareain2022,bytype(inmillionhectares)Globalgrainacreage2022,bytype25020015021947165.0447.1540.7629.869.514.754.023.622.240.883Description:Thestatisticillustratestheglobalgrainharvestedareainmillionhectaresin2022,brokendownbytype.Theharvestedareaforcornamountedtoover203millionhectaresworldwidein2022.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;DataaccessedonFebruary6,2024Source(s):FAOWorldwideproductionofgrainin2023/24,bytype(inmillionmetrictons)*Grainproductionworldwide2023/24,bytypeProductioninmillionmetrictons02004006008001,0001,2001,400CornWheat1,235.73784.91Rice(milled)Barley513.54142.87SorghumOats60.0119.42Rye11.64Description:Thisstatisticshowstheworldwideproductionofgrainin2023/24,sortedbytype.Inthatyear,worldwidewheatproductioncametoabout784.91millionmetrictons.Themostimportantgrainwascorn,basedonaproductionamountofover1.2billionmetrictons.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023/2024*Source(s):FAO;USDepartmentofAgricultureGlobalwheatproductionfrom1990/1991to2023/2024(inmillionmetrictons)*Wheat:productionvolumeworldwide1990/1991-2023/2024900800789.17784.91780.05773.09756.5761.54759.39735.9730.92728.371769770060050040030020010006555925825Description:Inthemarketingyearof2023/2024,theglobalproductionvolumeofwheatamountedtoalmost785millionmetrictons.Thiswasadecreasecomparedtothepreviousmarketingyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990/1991

to2023/2024;*Basedonlocalmarketingyear.ReadmoreSource(s):USDAForeignAgriculturalServiceLeading10wheatproducersworldwidein2023/2024(in1,000metrictons)*Globalleadingwheatproducers2023/2024Productioninthousandmetrictons60,000

80,000020,00040,000100,000120,000140,000136,590134,300160,000ChinaEuropeanUnionIndia110,554Russia91,000U.S.49,314Canada33,82428,00025,50023,40019,500PakistanAustraliaUkraineTurkey6Description:Inthemarketingyear2023/2024,Chinawastheleadingwheatproducingcountrywithproductionvolumeofover136.6millionmetrictons.ThiswasfollowedbytheEuropeanUnionwithproductionvolumeofover134millionmetrictons.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023/2024;*Localmarketingyears.ReadmoreSource(s):USDepartmentofAgriculture;USDAForeignAgriculturalServiceGlobalstocksofwheatfrom2012/2013to2023/2024(inmillionmetrictons)Stocksofwheatworldwide2012/13-2023/2024300281.7278276.62762732712602482502242051902001501005017102012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

2018/2019

2019/2020

2020/2021

2021/2022

2022/2023*

2023/2024**7Description:Thisstatisticillustratesthestocksofwheatworldwidefrom2012/2013to2022/2023,inadditiontoaforecastforthe2023/2024season.Incropyear2015/2016,theglobalstocksofwheatamountedtoabout224millionmetrictons.Wheatstocksisforecasttoincreasetoabout281millionmetrictonsby2023/2024.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2012/2013to2023/2024;Carryoverstocks;*Estimate.**Forecast.ReadmoreSource(s):IGCCHAPTER

02LeadingproducersForecastvolumeofwheatproducedintheEuropeanUnion(EU27)from2017to2032*(in1,000tons)EuropeanUnion-27:Forecastedwheatproductionvolumefrom2017to2032.160,000139,631.91137,116.27137,931.92

136,553.31636,390.71136,683.1136,767.01836,975.51137,218.31137,401.51837,547.67135,495.21135,540.3135,815.09140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000126,410.46124,517.5320172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120329Description:TheproductionvolumeofwheatintheEuropeanUnionwasforecasttoincreasebetween2023and2032byintotal2billiontonnes(+1.48percent).Thisoverallincreasedoesnothappencontinuously,notablynotin2026.Accordingtothisforecastin2032,theproductionvolumewillhaveincreasedforthesixthconsecutiveyearto137.5billiontonnes.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2017to2032Source(s):OECDWheatacreageinChinabetween2013and2023(inmillionhectares)WheatacreageinChina2013-20233024.4424.4424.5724.6724.4824.2725201510523.7323.6323.5723.5223.38020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*10Description:ThestatisticshowswheatacreageinChinabetween2013and2023.In2023,theextentofwheatacreageinChinaamountedtoaround23.63millionhectares.ReadmoreNote(s):China;2013to2023;*LatestfigureannouncedbytheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinainDecember2023.Valueshavebeenrounded.ReadmoreSource(s):NationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaWheatproductioninChinabetween2013and2023(inmillionmetrictons)WheatproductioninChina2013-2023160136.95137.72136.5914012010080134.33133.6134.25131.44130.19128.85126.21121.9604020020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*11Description:ThestatisticshowstheextentofwheatproductioninChinabetween2013and2023.In2023,around136.6millionmetrictonsofwheatwereproducedinChina.ReadmoreNote(s):China;2013to2023;*LatestfigureannouncedbytheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinainDecember2023.Valueshavebeenrounded.ReadmoreSource(s):NationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaNetavailabilityofwheatacrossIndiafromfinancialyear2015to2021,withanestimatefor2022(inmillionmetrictons)NetavailabilityofwheatIndiaFY2015-202210094.9992.8691.5787.0886.88908070605040302010085.9180.1377.21FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022*12Description:Infinancialyear2022,anestimated94millionmetrictonsofwheatwasavailableinIndia.Thisfigurerepresentsasignificantincreaseinthequantityofwheatcomparedto2015.Duringthemeasuredtimeperiod,thisstapleaccountedforalargeportionofoverallfoodgrainavailability.ReadmoreNote(s):India;FY2015toFY2022;*Fourthadvanceestimate.India'sfinancialyearbeginsinAprilandendsinMarch.Forexample,FY2018startedinApril2017andendedinMarch2018.Valueshavebeenrounded.

ReadmoreSource(s):MinistryofAgricultureandFarmersWelfare(India);UnionBudget(India)VolumeofwheatproducedinRussiafrom2012to2023withaforecastuntil2032*(inmillionmetrictons)WheatproductionvolumeinRussia2012-20321201008060402002012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

203213Description:TheproductionvolumeofwheatinRussiawasforecasttocontinuouslyincreasebetween2023and2032byintotal11.6billiontonnes(+13.71percent).Aftertheninthconsecutiveincreasingyear,theproductionvolumeisestimatedtoreach96.23billiontonnesandthereforeanewpeakin2032.ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;2012to2032Source(s):OECDU.S.wheatsupplyprojectionfrom2010/2011to2032/2033(inmillionbushels)*U.S.wheatsupply2010-20334,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500014Description:ThisstatisticillustratesprojectionsfortheU.S.wheattotalsupplyfrom2010/2011to2032/2033.Forcropyear2032/2033,totalwheatsupplyintheUnitedStatesisprojectedtobeapproximately3,045millionbushels.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2010and2022;*Projections.ReadmoreSource(s):FAPRICHAPTER

03InternationaltradeWheatexportvolumeworldwidefrom2014/2015to2023/2024(inmillionmetrictons)Wheatexportvolumeworldwide2014/15-2023/24250200216.09213.26205.17199.62195.1184.14182.43178.15172161.81501005002014/20152015/20162016/20172017/20182018/20192019/20202020/20212021/20222022/20232023/2024*16/statistics/737926/wheat-export-volume-worldwideBetween2014/15and2022/23,theglobalexportvolumeofwheathasincreasedbyabout33.6percent,exceeding216millionmetrictonsin2023/24.In2022/23,theexportvolumeofwheatisforecasttobeapproximately213.26millionmetrictons.

ReadmoreNote(s):Canada;2014/2015to2023/2024;*ForecastasofJanuary2024.TradedatarefertoexportsbasedonaJune/Maymarketingseasonforwheat.

Figureshavebeenroundedtoprovideabetterunderstandingofthestatistic.

ReadmoreSource(s):USDAForeignAgriculturalServicePrincipalexportingcountriesofwheat,flourandwheatproductsfrom2014/2015to2023/2024(in1,000metrictons)Majorexportingcountriesofwheat,flourandproducts2014/15-2023/242014/201522800354552488316575230231126955072015/201624543346862213615782218111743176002016/201727815274392029722061293181810772572017/201841447248952201915512232301777585192018/Russia322EuropeanUnionCanadaAustraliaUnitedStatesUkraine21KazakhstanArgentinaTurkey42008750122756320140006725141355605Brazil17/statistics/190429/principal-exporting-countries-of-wheat-flour-and-productsInthe2023/24marketingyear,Russiawastheleadingexporterofwheat,flour,andwheatproductsworldwide.Russiaexportedabout51millionmetrictonsthatyear.TheEuropeanUnioncameinsecond,with36.5millionmetrictonsofexports.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2014/2015to2022/2023;*EstimateasofJanuary2024.AllvaluesareTradeYear(TY)datawhichputsallcountriesonauniform,12-monthperiodforanalyticalcomparisons:tradeyearforwheatisJuly/June.Datapriorto[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):USDepartmentofAgriculture;USDAForeignAgriculturalServiceExportvolumeofwheat,flour,andwheatproductsinUkrainefromtradeyear2014/2015to2023/2024(in1,000metrictons)Wheat,flour,andwheatproductsexportvolumeinUkraine2014/2015-2023/202425,00021,01620,00018,84418,10717,77517,43117,12216,85116,01915,00010,0005,000012,00011,2692014/20152015/20162016/20172017/20182018/20192019/20202020/20212021/20222022/20232023/2024*18Description:Inthecropyear2022/2023,theexportvolumeofwheat,flour,andotherwheatproductsinUkraineamountedtoover17.1millionmetrictons.Thefigurefluctuatedovertheperiodobservedandwasprojectedtodropto12millionmetrictonsinthecropyear2023/2024.ReadmoreNote(s):Ukraine;marketingyear2016/2017to2022/2023;*Forecast.AllvaluesareTradeYear(TY)datawhichputsallcountriesonauniform,12-monthperiodforanalyticalcomparisons:tradeyearforwheatisJuly/June.Thestatistichasbeen[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):USDepartmentofAgriculture;USDAForeignAgriculturalServiceShareofimportsfromRussiaandUkraineintotalimportsofmeslinandwheatasofJune2022,bycountryWheatimportdependenceonRussiaandUkraine2022,bycountryShareoftotalwheatandmeslinimportsRussia40%Ukraine50%0%10%20%30%60%70%80%90%100%ArmeniaMongoliaBeninKazakhstanAzerbaijanLaosGeorgiaNorthKoreaRwandaSomaliaMoldovaPakistan19Description:ArmeniaandMongoliafullyreliedonRussiaformeslinandwheatimports,accordingtodataasofJune2022.LaosreportedthemostsignificantdependenceonmeslinandwheatsuppliesfromUkraine,atover98percentoftotalimportsofthesecommodities.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide,Russia,Ukraine;asofJune2022Source(s):Centred'EtudesProspectivesetd'InformationsInternationales;OECDWheatimportvolumeworldwidefrom2014/2015to2023/2024(inmillionmetrictons)Wheatimportvolumeworldwide2014/15-2023/24250200216.09213.26205.17199.62195.1186.96179.97178.15172161.91501005002014/20152015/20162016/20172017/20182018/20192019/20202020/20212021/20222022/20232023/2024*20Description:Thisstatisticshowsthewheatimportvolumeworldwidefrom2014/2015to2023/2024.During2022/2023,theimportsbasedonaJune/Maymarketingseasonofwheatamountedtoover216millionmetrictonsworldwide.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2014/2015to2022/2023Source(s):USDAForeignAgriculturalServicePrincipalimportingcountriesofwheat,flour,andwheatproductsfrom2014/2015to2023/2024(in1,000metrictons)Majorimportingcountriesofwheat,flour,andproducts2014/15-2023/242014/20152015/20162016/20172017/20182018/ChinaEgypt11300597974785960725711925691611181529912407606011EuropeanUnionIndonesiaTurkey101164405101904736107636092Algeria815384148172MoroccoPhilippinesBangladeshJapan50543354587849183929571557084693591160596472587621/statistics/190435/principle-importing-countries-of-wheat-flour-and-productsThisstatisticshowstheprincipalimportingcountriesofwheat,wheatflourandwheatproductsworldwidefrom2014/2015to2023/2024.In2023/24,Egyptwasforecasttoimportabout11millionmetrictonsofwheatandwheat-derivedproducts.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2014/2015to2022/2023;*ForecastasofJanuary2024.AllvaluesareTradeYear(TY)datawhichputsallcountriesonauniform,12-monthperiodforanalyticalcomparisons:tradeyearforwheatisJuly/June.Datapriorto[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):USDepartmentofAgriculture;USDAForeignAgriculturalServiceShareofimportsfromRussiaandUkraineintotalimportsofdurumwheatasofJune2022,bycountryDurumwheatimportdependenceonRussiaandUkraine2022,bycountryShareoftotaldurumwheatimportsRussia40%Ukraine50%0%10%20%30%60%70%80%90%100%ArmeniaBeninBangladeshMongoliaCongoMozambiqueGeorgiaKazakhstanBurkinaFasoLebanonBelarusPakistan22Description:ArmeniaandMongoliareceivedalloftheirdurumwheatimportsfromRussiaasofJune2022.Furthermore,BeninandMongoliafullyreliedonUkrainianimportsofthatcommodity.AmongothercountrieshighlydependentonRussiandurumwheatsupplieswereCongo,Mozambique,andGeorgia.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide,Russia,Ukraine;asofJune2022Source(s):Centred'EtudesProspectivesetd'InformationsInternationales;OECDCHAPTER

04ConsumptionTotalwheatconsumptionworldwidefrom2017/2018to2023/2024(inmillionmetrictons)Globalwheatconsumption2017/18-2023/24900800796.44786.57791.16790.93742.37745.71735.3170060050040030020010002017/20182018/20192019/20202020/20212021/20222022/20232023/2024*24/statistics/1094056/total-global-rice-consumptionGlobalconsumptionofwheatsawaslightincreaseoverthelastyear,withjustunder791millionmetrictonsconsumedinthe2022/23tradeyear.Inthe2023/2024tradeyear,itisexpectedthataboutfivemillionmetrictonsmorewillbeconsumed.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2017/2018to2023/2024;*ForecastasofJanuary2024.Figureshavebeenrounded.Datapriorto2019/20havebeentakenfrompreviousreports.

ReadmoreSource(s):USDepartmentofAgriculture;USDAForeignAgriculturalServiceGlobalpercapitafooduseofwheatfrom2000to2032(inkilogramsperyear)Percapitafooduseofwheatworldwide2000-20328070605040302010025Description:Thisstatisticillustratesthepercapitafooduseofwheatworldwidefrom2000/01to2021/22,withaforecastfor2032.In2032,theglobalpercapitafooduseofwheatisprojectedtobeatabout65.6kilogramsperperson.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2000to2022;*Averageof2019to2021percapitavalues.**Averageof2020to2022percapitavalues.***Projection

ReadmoreSource(s):AMIS;FAO;OECDWheatconsumptionworldwidein2023/2024,bycountry(in1,000metrictons)*Globalwheatconsumption2023/24,bycountryConsumptioninthousandmetrictons60,000

80,000

100,000020,00040,000120,000140,000160,000180,000ChinaEuropeanUnionIndia153,500110,000109,904Russia43,000UnitedStatesPakistanTurkey31,40729,60021,30020,60017,80015,00012,200EgyptIranUnitedKingdomBrazilAlgeriaMorocco11,55010,30026Description:Inthe2023/2024marketingyear,thetopconsumersofwheatgloballywereChina,theEuropeanUnion,andIndia.Chinaconsumedover153millionmetrictonsofwheatthatyear.Wheatconsumptionworldwideisslowlyincreasing,growingbyabouteightpercentsince2018/2019.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2021/2022;*Basedonlocalmarketingyears.ReadmoreSource(s):USDepartmentofAgriculture;USDAForeignAgriculturalServiceForecastvolumeofwheatconsumedintheEuropeanUnion(EU27)from2018to2032*(in1,000tons)EuropeanUnion-27:wheatconsumptionvolumeforecast2018-2032120,000112,687.61106,935.46109,084.11109,400.82107,743.81107,222.6106,371.49105,786.34106,382.41106,046.91106,049.9106,110.92106,081.87106,083.57103,693.37100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000020182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203227Description:TheprojectedconsumptionvolumeofwheatintheEuropeanUnionwasforecasttodecreasebetween2023and2032byintotal3billiontonnes.Thisoveralldecreasedoesnothappencontinuously,notablynotin