市场策略报告：结构性行情延续

核心观点与展望本周（47日-413日）2000A2.73%800021周内核心指数行业表现资料来源：，2周内中信一级行业表现资料来源：，20042014315A图3大类资产走势资料来源：，332022图4信贷走势资料来源：，展望来看，尽管市场延续相对偏弱的格局，但盘中走弱时仍存在不弱的承接动能，指数下行风险相对可控，只要后续没有出现明显的破位下跌，结构性行情有望延续。配置思路整体延续上周，指数方向适度倾向中证500，重点围绕设备更新这一政策主线，建议超配机械，同时关注电力设备、家电、化工等方向业绩稳定的品种。指数与基金市场回顾4%，1.62%2.67%0.56%7%，图5指数与行业涨跌幅指数与大类行业周涨跌幅（%）上周涨跌幅（%）月涨跌幅（%）年初至今涨跌幅（%）最近两周换手率（%）最新换手率历史分位（2010年6月至今）本周上周单日5日均上证综指-1.620.92-0.711.500.770.7964.77%67.02%深证成指-3.321.53-1.84-3.111.221.3343.25%39.42%沪深300-2.580.86-1.741.300.430.4649.30%48.35%创业板50-3.981.19-2.84-4.551.441.5024.90%18.74%创业板指-4.211.22-3.04-6.791.351.3918.53%16.82%创业板综-4.540.52-4.04-11.512.763.2941.47%45.68%风格指数科创50-2.42-0.78-3.19-13.330.770.7318.32%8.68%中小综指-3.001.00-2.03-7.861.782.0536.90%38.16%上证50-2.310.63-1.692.060.230.2352.89%55.30%中证100-2.651.27-1.411.940.510.5481.72%83.33%中证500-1.811.67-0.17-2.801.111.1228.05%29.29%中证1000-2.951.10-1.88-9.321.761.9232.05%38.33%万得全A-2.730.99-1.77-4.571.171.2663.94%63.36%能源指数0.562.853.4316.800.590.6075.81%75.84%材料指数-0.844.783.901.812.021.8267.53%75.88%工业指数-2.651.14-1.53-2.981.301.4560.55%59.35%可选消费指数-1.730.96-0.790.671.912.1177.26%74.39%日常消费指数-5.391.71-3.76-5.931.421.4041.44%45.86%大类行业医疗保健指数-3.210.48-2.75-14.291.201.3229.50%32.98%金融指数-2.960.34-2.630.780.280.3242.74%35.01%信息技术指数-4.16-1.14-5.25-13.711.972.5036.66%29.62%电信服务指数-2.67-0.72-3.372.150.550.6334.73%26.98%公用事业指数2.67-0.092.589.280.950.7162.07%70.38%房地产指数-7.03-1.39-8.32-16.861.101.3845.92%49.11%资料来源：，-1.83%-1.47%和-1.02%50%-3.3%，业绩排名前5%的阈值为10.3%。图6基金净值变化资料来源：，风险偏好与板块热度本周沪深300风险溢价回升17bp至303bp，沪深300估值中位数回落至18.82倍。近期市场持续震荡，风险溢价在历史极值上下浮动。图7沪深300风险溢价资料来源：，图8板块热度板块热度本周上周变化石油石化7184-13公用事业716011有色金属6886-18煤炭674621钢铁6374-12交通运输6275-13基础化工5081-31商贸零售4767-20纺织服饰4469-25环保4283-41社会服务4056-16综合3978-39家用电器3158-26食品饮料3063-33建筑材料2965-36农林牧渔2976-47轻工制造2877-49电力设备2341-18机械设备2241-19医药生物1945-25银行1750-33汽车1641-25建筑装饰1064-53美容护理1059-48通信922-13房地产853-44非银金融516-11电子527-22国防军工534-29计算机412-8传媒34-1资料来源：，重要资金行为个股来看，净流入规模居前的有京东方A、兆易创新和海尔智家等，均净流入超5亿元；净流出规模居前的有贵州茅台和中国中免等，均净流出超10亿元。图9北上资金持股变化北上资金持股变化本周净流入（亿元）上周净流入（亿元）月度净流入（亿元）季度净流入（亿元）年度净流入（亿元）3月净流入（亿元）2月净流入（亿元）1月净流入（亿元）有色金属33.8-21.012.890.148.840.037.4-41.3电子15.9-0.615.395.3134.237.142.938.8电力设备2.38.310.7113.316.854.448.3-96.6农林牧渔2.2-1.50.611.75.70.810.3-6.1纺织服饰1.7-0.71.06.54.24.80.6-2.3环保0.80.00.8-4.4-5.3-4.1-1.1-0.9轻工制造0.00.90.9-11.0-12.4-2.9-9.0-1.4综合-0.4-0.2-0.70.70.00.01.4-0.7美容护理-0.7-0.6-1.30.8-8.8-9.011.2-9.6钢铁-1.26.55.20.6-2.0-11.46.8-2.6社会服务-1.8-0.5-2.3-8.2-7.8-7.31.40.4汽车-2.0-6.3-8.368.651.435.741.1-17.1基础化工-2.812.49.67.310.0-6.64.32.7房地产-2.9-1.8-4.6-8.9-5.7-3.8-0.53.2石油石化-3.4-2.1-5.526.1-0.811.919.7-26.9煤炭-4.0-4.4-8.4-1.07.87.00.48.8银行-4.20.1-4.0193.1247.961.3135.954.8交通运输-4.61.7-3.012.138.1-1.916.926.0公用事业-5.22.2-3.029.149.816.216.020.7机械设备-5.85.3-0.412.4-24.611.91.0-37.0传媒-5.8-5.9-11.7-43.8-82.5-17.6-14.5-38.7建筑装饰-6.11.8-4.322.239.62.124.417.4国防军工-6.1-2.0-8.111.733.74.715.022.0建筑材料-7.21.5-5.6-16.0-21.8-10.50.1-5.8家用电器-8.7-2.0-10.759.060.250.119.51.2通信-10.90.5-10.521.733.024.27.911.3非银金融-11.10.0-11.159.324.7-4.074.4-34.6商贸零售-12.8-2.9-15.7-6.4-9.43.85.5-3.0计算机-15.0-8.1-23.0-69.8-37.4-52.86.032.4医药生物-15.6-3.8-19.4-81.9-95.3-56.2-6.3-13.4食品饮料-26.0-7.7-33.7149.1131.169.6113.2-18.0资料来源：，本周ETF基金整体上净赎回，净申购排名前三的指数ETF为创业板ETF（9.3亿元亿元亿元净赎回排名前三的指数ETF分别为300ETF（-50.0亿元500ETF（-28.1亿元1000ETF（-15.8亿元。图10指数ETF净申赎变化指数ETF净申购变化跟踪ETF本周净申购（亿元）上周净申购（亿元）创业板9.3-4.84.5109.0191.1科创508.03.111.1-80.3-18.4创业板502.6-0.71.9-45.8-22.2创成长0.4-0.40.0-7.0-5.5科创创业500.2-0.8-0.6-14.3-4.5国证2000-0.50.90.4-3.5-6.7MSCI中国A50-1.0-0.8-1.81.41.9中证2000-1.5-2.7-4.2-0.1-9.8中证红利-2.6-1.9-4.512.412.8上证红利-5.4-0.6-6.0-17.0-4.2上证50-12.712.3-0.390.3253.9中证1000-15.8-11.1-26.9304.9221.7中证500-28.1-22.3-50.4401.8370.3沪深300-50.010.7-39.31324.52558.6资料来源：，盈利与估值变化PE18.98.3%；PB1.88.4%。PB88.9%35.4%图11行业大盘股估值中位数行业大盘股估值中位数PE估值PE历史分位PB估值PB历史分位相对估值相对估值历史分位公用事业17.049.4%1.768.8%0.999.9%美容护理35.429.3%3.862.0%2.188.9%煤炭8.125.8%1.459.2%0.875.9%石油石化11.716.8%1.638.8%0.970.7%机械设备22.727.3%2.138.2%1.294.8%纺织服饰15.826.1%1.637.1%0.981.7%社会服务27.418.2%3.136.4%1.789.4%汽车21.365.0%1.835.0%1.099.2%商贸零售13.211.3%1.732.5%0.978.3%有色金属19.412.7%1.925.6%1.069.9%轻工制造15.53.1%1.624.5%0.953.1%传媒12.72.4%1.716.7%1.034.7%钢铁9.946.5%0.716.4%0.462.7%银行5.228.6%0.615.1%0.331.5%国防军工36.42.2%2.413.6%1.446.8%电力设备19.22.7%1.911.9%1.134.7%综合62.695.5%1.010.6%0.515.8%家用电器16.413.6%2.19.4%1.263.4%全市场18.98.3%1.88.4%--电子28.321.0%2.37.7%1.350.7%食品饮料20.42.5%3.27.6%1.835.4%交通运输13.435.0%1.27.0%0.744.4%通信22.56.6%2.14.8%1.246.6%计算机31.918.2%2.43.8%1.418.3%建筑装饰11.222.7%1.03.8%0.621.0%农林牧渔-2.70.3%1.93.1%1.19.1%医药生物20.116.5%2.02.8%1.110.5%建筑材料13.929.7%1.21.8%0.720.7%环保15.211.8%1.11.7%0.610.8%基础化工15.821.1%1.41.7%0.824.4%房地产5.22.0%0.50.3%0.31.3%非银金融13.918.5%0.90.1%0.54.6%资料来源：，本周行业盈利预期来看，近期房地产、社会服务和纺织服饰等行业业绩预期上修，家用电器、商贸零售和环保等行业盈利预期边际下滑。图12行业盈利预测变化资料来源：，下周重要数据与事件展望3GDP3CPI增速等。图13下周重要数据下周全球主要国家核心经济数据日期国家/地区指标名称前值预期2024-04-15美国3月核心零售销售:环比()0.30.42024-04-15美国3月零售销售:环比()0.60.32024-04-15美国3月零售销售:同比()1.52024-04-16中国3月发电量产量累计值(亿千瓦时)14870.32024-04-16中国3月钢材产量累计值(万吨)21342.82024-04-16中国3月工业增加值:当月同比()-12.75.32024-04-16中国3月固定资产投资:累计同比()4.24.42024-04-16中国3月平板玻璃产量累计值(万重量箱)16193.82024-04-16中国3月社会消费品零售总额:当月同比()5.54.82024-04-16中国3月生铁产量累计值(万吨)14073.42024-04-16中国3月天然气产量累计值(亿立方米)416.72024-04-16中国3月天然原油产量累计值(万吨)3510.92024-04-16中国3月原煤产量累计值(万吨)70526.72024-04-16中国3月原油加工量累计值(吨)1187550002024-04-16中国第一季度GDP:当季同比(