IBM 2023年全球银行和金融市场展望

IBMInstituteforBusinessValue|ExpertInsights

2023

GlobalOuttook

forBankingand

FinancialMarkets

Creatingdigitaladvantage

foruncertaintlines

Authors

ShankerRamamurthyShankerservesasIBMConsulting^ManagingPartnerofGlobal

ManagingPartner,BankingandFinancialMarketswithaparticularfocusoncorebanking

GlobalBanking&FinancialMarketsmodernizationandpaymentstransformation.Heisalsoamemberofthe

IBMConsultingIBMAccelerationTeam.Heisawell-knownthoughtleaderwithmultiple

sramamur@patents,hasauthoredseveralwhitepapers,andwasrankedasone

/in/shankerramamurthyofthe50mostinfluentialfinancialservicesconsultantsworldwideby

Euromoneymagazine.

JohnJ.DuigenanJohnistheGeneralManagerfortheFinancialServicessectorwithin

GeneralManager,IBMGlobalIndustries.Hismissionistoalignthevaluecreationfrom

FinancialServicesIndustryIBMTechnologywithcurrentindustryimperativesthatspanclients

IBMTechnologyacrossthesector.Johnandhisteampartnercloselywithclientstoshow

john.duigenan@howindustry-specificusecasesmaptoIBMtechnologycapabilities,

/in/duigenansolutions,andoutcomes.Usecasesareavehicletodemonstrate

relevance,scalere-use,andcreateclientreferences.AsanIBM

DistinguishedEngineer,Johnalsoleadsbyexamplebybeingahands-

ontechnologist.SincejoiningIBMin1998,hehasheldtechnicaland

businessrolesspanningtheentireproductlifecycle,withextensive

development,service,salesandtechnologyleadership.Heledmulti-

billion-dollartransformationprogramsatIBM'scustomers.Johnis

basedinNewYorkCity.

Expertcontributors

AnthonyLippLikhitWagle

GlobalStrategyLeader,ManagingPartner,

BankingandFinancialMarketsFinancialServices

IBMConsultingIBMConsultingEMEA

anthony.lipp@Likhit.Wagle@

/in/lippanthony/in/Ukhit-wagle

KwafoOfori-BoatengDianeConnelly

VP&SeniorPartner,GlobalResearchLeaderBanking

BankingClusterLeaderandFinancialMarkets,

IBMConsultingIBMInstituteforBusinessValue

kwafo@diane.connelly@

/in/kwafo-ofori-boateng-123a345/in/diane-connelly-ibv

PabloPadinFabeiroConnorLoessl

Partner,SeniorManagingConsultant,

ClientPartnerCoreBanking&Payments

IBMConsultingIBMConsulting

pablo.padin@celoessl@

/in/pablo-padin-224a261a/in/connor-loessl-83168851

JudithPintoPaoloSironi

ManagingDirector,GlobalResearchLeaderBanking

DistinguishedIndustryandFinancialMarkets,

Banking&FinancialMarketsIBMInstituteforBusinessValue

IBMConsulting,PromontoryFinancialGrouppaolo.sironi@

jpinto@/in/thepsironi

/in/judith-pinto-801665

PabloSuarez

ManagingPartner,

FinancialServices

IBMConsultingEMEA

pablo.suarez@

/in/pablosuarez

Contents

02Foreword

03Executivesummary

05Theonlycertaintyisuncertainty

13Growthandperformancehingeuponbusinessmodelinnovation

23Rethinkingcostandefficiencytofundgrowthandinnovation

29Evolvingrisk,compliance,andregulatorydynamics

37Transformoperationsonmodernbusinessarchitectures

39Actionguide

Foreword

Folksywisdomaboundsabouthowharditistochangethetiresonamovingcar.

Somewouldsayit'sanimpossiblefeat.Andyet,financialinstitutionshavebeen

tryingtodothecorporateequivalentoverthepastseveralyears.

It'snotbeeneasy.Ifsstillnoteasy.Geopoliticaluncertaintycausesmarketshocks

andcalibrations.Clientdemandsgrow.Sustainabilityrequireshighertransparency

basedonrealworlddata.AUthewhile,financialservices1C-suitesareinvestingto

respondratherthanreact.

Manyaremovingtodigitalfoundationsandtransformations,butnotjusttokeep

pacewithcompetitors.Theyrecognizethatmodernbankingandfinancialmarkets

requiredigitalcapabilitiesfortheresiliencethatleadstohealthierfinancial

performance.Ameasured,fastbusinessresponserequiresbusinessagilityand

accesstoreal-timedata,groundedonstronghybridcloudfoundationsandfueledby

artificialintelligenceandautomation.Traditionalbusinessmodels—justlike

traditionalmonolithiclegacyarchitectures—werenotdesignedforhighlydigital

economiesandconsumers.

TheIBMexpertsinbankingandfinancialmarketsreflecteachyearontheglobal

industryenvironment,aswellasemergingbankingstrategies.Theyponderthe

investmentsmadebykeyinstitutionsineveryjurisdiction,onclientlessonslearned,

andonnewwaysforward.AUofthisrichthinkinganddebateisbakedintothe2023

GlobalOutlookforBankingandFinancialMarketsbytheIBMInstituteforBusiness

Value.

Thisyear'sreportunpackstheuncertaintythatissuretoremaingloballyin2023.

Wediscussnewimpactsandstrategiesforgrowthandperformance,riskand

compliance,andcostandefficiency.Financialinstitutionscanweatherthestorm,

andemergestronger,servingasthebeaconforotherindustriesthatalsomust

navigateunderchallengingeconomicconditions.

Wetrustitprovidesthebasisforastrategicdiscussionwithinyourorganization

throughoutayearthatbringscertainchange.

ShankerRamamurthyJohnDuigenan

ManagingPartner,GeneralManager,

BankingandFinancialMarkets,FinancialServicesIndustry,

IBMConsultingIBMTechnology

2

Executive

summary

Inanybusinessordigital■Anuncertainworlddemands

transformation,anessentialfinancialservicesinstitutions

questiontoconsideris:dothatcanflexasneeded.

customersandemployeeshaveDigitalbusinessmodelsandarchitecturesenablethis

betterexperiencesasaresult?flexonhybridcloud.Traditionalbusinessmodelsand

monolithiclegacyarchitecturesconstraintheuseof

dataandAI.

■Healthierfinancialperformance

depends,inpart,onbusinessand

technologyleaderswhofunction

ascoequals.

Whenbusinessstrategyisset,technologyleadersneed

tobeactiveparticipantsintheprocess.Profitability

falteredindustry-wideinthelastdecade.Shiftingways

ofworkingcanhelp.

■Thenextsystemiccrisiscould

beanoperationalone.

Asorganizationsbecomemoredigitallyinterconnected

witheachotherandtheircustomers,asecuredigital

foundationismoreessentialthanever.

3

4

TheonlycertaintyForeword

Executivesummary

isuncertaintyTheonlycertainty

isuncertainty

Growthandperformance

hingeuponbusinessmodel

Changeanduncertaintyhavemadeadramaticentranceinnovation

aftermorethanadecadeofrelativestabilityintheworld

Rethinkingcostandefficiency

economyandcapitalmarkets—anditappearstheymay

tofundgrowthandinnovation

remaincenterstageforsometime.Asaresult,weexpect

thefinancialserviceslandscapewillcontinuetotransformEvolvingrisk,compliance,

andregulatorydynamics

rapidlyin2023.

Transformoperations

Stresstotheworldeconomyin2022stemmedfrommanyfactors,

onmodernbusiness

includinggeopoliticalconflicts,supplychaindisruptions,aswiftrisein

architectures

inflation,andlayoffs.Thefinancialservicesindustrysitsnearoratthe

epicenterofmanyofthesedisruptions.WhetherdealingwithshocksActionguide

tothecoreorrippleeffects,financialinstitutionsmustresolve

structuralweaknessesandfindawaytosteadyground—fast—even

astheworldcontinuestochange.

5

Fourkeymarketconditionstoaddressin2023

Financialinstitutions1C-suitesarefacedwithachallenge:howtopreserve

increasinglyexpensivecapital(seeFigure1)whileinvestingintransformation

tobettercombatuncertaintyandemergestronger.

FIGUREi

CommonEquityTier1capital(CETI)

hasincreasedglobally,spurredby

regulatoryrequirements

Theratiocomparesabank*scoreequity

assetsagainstitsrisk-weightedassets.

Year

2007-212007-4212007-212007-212014-(212007-212007-212010-212010-21

20%

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

NorthEuropeEuropeEuropeJapanGreaterAPACMEALATAM

AmericaCoreNordicsBroaderChinaBroader

CETI5-yearaveragesofthemedian,1stand3rdquartilecalculatedin

each.regionacrossthetop25banksbytotalassets.

Note:Singleyearwhendifferentthan2007.

Source:S&PGlobal,IBMInstituteforBusinessValue.

6

Leaderswillbeexpectedtoadaptandrespond4.Sustainability.

tofourkeymarketconditions:Environmentalconcernshaveledtonew,albeit

1.Macroeconomictensions.necessary,restrictionsonbusinessandeconomic

activities.Whilebankscanbeanintegralpartof

Increasingmacroeconomictensionsareepitomized

thesustainabilitysolutionandfindnewrevenue

byspikinginflation,whichcalledformajorcentral

opportunities,theyarealsoexposedtonewrisks

bankstoraiseinterestrates(exceptinChinaandandcomplexcompliancerequirements.Theywill

Japan).1Facingrecessionaryenvironments,the

needtonavigatethisareawithgreatcare,notonly

suddenreversalinmonetarypoliciesmayprovefortheirbusinessbutfortheplanet.

untenableforcentralbankers,addingmore

uncertaintyinfuturedecisions.Atthesametime,Lefsdelvedeeperintoeachofthesefour

pricevolatilityhasreturnedtofinancialmarkets.marketconditions.

2.Geopoliticaluncertainties.Macroeconomictensions

Economicdecoupling,amongotherfactors,is

testingtheresilienceofvaluechainswhilespurchange

heighteningfinancialriskacrossgeographiesandCentralbankerswerelatetorealizeinflationspikes

economicsectors.Asglobalizationhelpedreducewouldbemorethantemporaryin2022.TheUS

costs,deglobalizationwilldriveupcosts,furtherFederalReserveBoardwasfirsttoact,raising

fuelinflation,andchangefinancialclients*needs.interestrates,certainlyawareofthepotential

drawbacksinaneconomywithstagnantrealGDP.

3.Newcompetitors.

TheEuropeanCentralBankfollowed,despitethe

Clients*digitaladoptionisaccelerating,whichrecessionaryeffectsofenergysupplychallenges

exposestheshortcomingsoftraditionalfinancialcausedbythewarinUkraine.Ontheotherendofthe

services.Thiscreatesanopeningfornew,digital­spectrum,thePeople'sBankofChinafurtherreduced

savvycompetitorstocaptureandengageclients,ratesaspartofanefforttostabilizetheailinghousing

resultinginpotentialrevenuelossforincumbents.marketwhiletheyshiftfromamanufacturing-led

Largetraditionalinstitutionsarehinderedbylegacyboomtoamoreservices-orientedeconomy.

businessandoperatingmodelsthatarenotproving

agileenough.Manyofthesemodelsweredesignedin

anothereraforanotherera,longbeforethespeed

enabledbyexponentialtechnologies.

7

Willcentralbanksreconsiderraisinginterestratecenteredonretailandwholesalelending.Reces­

targets,astheireconomiesarelikelytobecomesionaryexpectations,however,arealsoresulting

recessionaryin2023?Fromabankingperspec­ingrowingcreditriskappraisalandasignificant

tive,higherinterestratesshouldfavorinterestrateincreaseinthecostofoperations,whichmightoffset

marginswhichhavedeclinedsteadilyoverthelastmosteconomicbenefitsforfinancialintermediaries.

decade(seeFigure2),especiallyforinstitutions

FIGURE2

NetInterestMargin(NIM)declinedglobally

amidstloweringinterestrates,whilegrowth

ofnon-interestdepositsincreased

Theratiomeasuresbankprofitabilityfromcredit

operationsasapercentageofnetincometototalassets.

Year

2007-212007-212007-,212007-212007-212007-212007-212010-212011-21

8%

7%

0%

NorthEuropeEuropeEuropeJapanGreaterAPACMEALATAM

AmericaCoreNordicsBroaderChinaBroader

NIM5-yearaveragesofthemedian,1stand3rdquartilecalculatedin

eachregionacrossthetop25banksbytotalassets.

Note:Singleyearwhendifferentthan2007.

Source:S&PGlobal,IBMInstituteforBusinessValue.

8

Newcompetitorshavetaken

advantageofakeychangebrought

bythepandemic:clientsaremore

accustomedtoconsumingfinancial

servicesondigital.

GeopoliticalriskbringsRegulatorsarerespondingtogeopoliticalriskina

varietyofways,fromscrutinizingthesovereigntyof

economicheadwindscloudtodemandinghigherprotectionofcitizens1data

andprivacy.Banks'2023profitabilitywillbefurther

Geopoliticaltensionsarerising,impactingsocial

constrainedduetothegrowingcostofgeopolitical

freedomsandcross-bordereconomicinteractions.

instability;theymayhavetoreconsiderinvestments

Afewfactorscometothefore:

becauseofit.

Deglobalization.Asgovernmentsfacemounting

anxietyfromtheirconstituentsandlooktoprotectNewcompetitorsbring

theireconomiesfromgeopoliticalrisks,theyhavenewchallenges

raisedantitrustmeasuresandcustomdutieson

strategictechnology.DeglobalizationisexpectedtoNon-traditionalcompetitorsarechallenging

makelabormoreexpensiveandsupplychainslessincumbentinstitutions,wooingclientswithabetter

efficient.AIandautomationcanremovecostsfromclientexperienceatalowercost.Thesenew

howbanks—andcorporationsatlarge—servetheircompetitorsareamixoffintechstartupsand

clients.Aconfluenceofstressesdemandscontinued“techfin"companies(technologycompaniesthat

resilienceandinvestmentinsecurity.haveenteredthefinancialarena).Thisheightened

competitionisacceleratingthecontraction

Militaryescalation.ThewarinUkrainemaycontinue

offinancialservicesmargins,steeringnewrevenue

foranextendedperiod.Evenifaresolutionisfound

opportunitiesawayfromestablishedinstitutions.

inthenearterm,theEuropeanenergyagendawill

belargelyatthemercyofsuppliersandscarceNewcompetitorshavetakenadvantageofakey

resources,forcedtoacceptprevailingpricesforchangebroughtbythepandemic:clientsaremore

thetimebeing.accustomedtoconsumingfinancialserviceson

digital.Yettraditionalfinancialinstitutionshave

Asaresult,thepricesofgoodsandserviceswilllikely

struggledtomoveasquicklyasneededwithdigital

increase,impactingtheeconomiccompetitiveness

transformations.Theyarenavigatingtechnology,

ofthewholecontinentandbeyond.Sovereigntyand

business,andpeopleissues,hamperedbylegacy

supplychainresilienceconcernswarrantanew

architecturesandoperatingmodels.Incontrast,

securedapproachtomanagecloudandon-premises

digitalcompetitorshavetheadvantageofa

environments.

greenfield.

Economicrivalry.Thetwolargestglobaleconomic

Whiledigitaltechnologycontinuestoshape

powers-theUSandChina—couldcontinueto

consumptionbehavior,clientsvaryintheir

competefordominanceonarangeoftopicsfrom

willingnesstomakefinancialdecisionswithoutthe

manufacturingindustrialcomponentstodeploying

intermediationofhumanrelationships(forexample,

artificialintelligenceatscaleandtransformingmoney

theelderlyandwealthierclientsmaynotalways

supplywithcentralbankdigitalcurrencies(CBDCs).

self-direct).Allsidesoftheequation—financialinsti­

Theshiftfromcollaborationtoopencompetitionhas

tutions,fintech,andtechfin—arefindingtheirway

beenrecognizedworldwideandiscausingthe

totherighthybridservicemodelfortheirclients,

delicaterepositioningofestablishedstrategies.

determiningthecorrectmixofhumanversusdigital

interaction.

9

"'Uncertaintyis

thenewnormal."4

KristaUinaGeorgieva,

IMFManagingDirector

NewcompetitorsalsoincreasepressureontraditionalMeetuncertaintywitha

financialorganizationsintermsoftalent.Post-pandemic,

people'sexpectationsaboutwheretheyworkandhowstrongdigitalfoundation

workgetsdonehavechanged.Asbankscontinuetolook

Technologyisadeflationaryforceagainsttoday's

forwaystotransformtheirbusinessandoperating

uncertaintiesandconduittonewrevenueopportu­

modelsaroundcustomers,ensuringabetteremployee

nities.Butthereisnotmuchlow-hangingfruitwith

experiencewillbeessential.Offeringabetterclient

digitaltransformations.

experienceisinextricablylinkedwithofferingabetter

employeeexperience.WithmoredigitalcompetitorsCloudhasbeentheprimarytechnologyattractingthe

wooingtoptalent,bankswillneedtoaddressthehumanstrategicinvestmentsoffinancialinstitutions.

sideofoperatingmodelssoonerthanlater.However,overlysimplifiedeconomicassumptions

aboutpubliccloudbillinghaveoftenerasedanyvalue

Sustainabilitypressuresmountgained.Theconcentrationofcloudprovidershasalso

raisedregulatoryscrutiny,growingawarenessabout

Companies,theirstakeholders,andsocietyatlargehavesystemicrisks,whileexposingconcernsaboutdata

focusedmoreattentiononclimatechange,thrustingsovereignty.Financialinstitutions,C-levelhavecome

sustainabilityrequirementsevenmorefirmlyintothetorealizethathybridcloudistheessentialapproach

spotlight.Sustainabilitystrategiesmustbeimpactfulandtoredefinetheeconomicmodeloftechnology

realistic.investments.

Morethan8outof10CEOs(83%)expectsustainabilityTogetherwithdataandAI,thishybridcloudstrategy

investmentstoproduceimprovedbusinessresultsintheusesacombinationofnewwaysofthinking,newways

2

nextfiveyears.Yet,57%ofCEOsidentifyunclearROIofworking,andnewtoolstosimplifyandaccelerate

andeconomicbenefitsasaleadingchallenge,whiledevelopment.Thisenablesinstitutionstoweather

3

44%citealackofinsightsfromdata.avarietyofdisruptionswithspeedandflexibility.

Remainingmiredinlegacyconstraintsisnolonger

Financialinstitutionscloselymonitorandrelyonother

aviableoption.

industries*transparencyregardingtheirESGinitiatives.

Inthisregard,theyareinstrumentalininformingTofaceuncertaintyin2023andbeyondrequires

executivedecisionsinallindustries,grantingshort-holisticchanges.CEOsandboardsofdirectorstaking

andmedium-termvalueintermsoffinanciallevers.Theanactiveroleinthisendeavorisessentialtosuccess.

bankingC-suitegrappleswiththesameissuesasthoseThenextsectionsareintendedtoaidthebanking

theyserve.C-suiteinformulatingtheirstrategiesandimple­

mentingthem,reflectingonhowto:

Theorchestrationofsustainability-orienteddata

platformsallowsfinancialecosystemstoparticipate