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PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10737
LinkingExportActivitiestoProductivityandWageRateGrowth
LuisAguilarLuna
DeborahWinkler
WORLDBANKGROUP
Macroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice
March2024
PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10737
Abstract
Thispaperexaminestherelationshipbetweentradeandjobquality,usingproductivityandwageratedataforexportandnon-exportactivitiesinasampleof60countriesacrossallincomelevelsand45sectorsspanningthewholeecon-omyover1995–2019.First,theanalysisfindsthatworkersinvolvedinexportactivitiesaremoreproductiveandbetterpaidthanthoseinnon-exportactivities.Whiletheproduc-tivitypremiumforexportactivitiesisconfirmedinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,thereisnowageratepremium.Second,thisstudyfindsapositiverelationshipbetweenexportsandlaborproductivityatthecountry-sectorlevel,whichcanbeattributedtoproductivitygainswithinexport
activitiesaswellasspilloverstonon-exportactivities.Coun-tries’specializationinglobalvaluechainsandsectorsalsomattersfortherelationshipbetweenexportsandjobqual-ity,withmanufacturing,agriculture,andbusinessservicesshowingstrongerassociations.Thelinkbetweenexportsandthewagerateissmallerthanforproductivity.Finally,productivityandwagerategrowthdecompositionssuggestthatgrowthwithinratherthanbetweenactivitieswasthedrivingforce.Withinexportactivities,productivityandwageincreasesweredominatedbywithin-sectorgrowth,althoughlabormovementtowardmoreproductivesectorsalsomattersinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.
ThispaperisaproductoftheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebat
/prwp.Theauthorsmay
becontactedatdwinkler2@.
ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.
ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam
LinkingExportActivitiestoProductivity
andWageRateGrowth
LuisAguilarLuna
1
andDeborahWinkler
2
Keywords:Economicdevelopment,internationaltrade,exportactivity,laborproductivity,wagerate
JELcodes:F14,F16,F66
1Consultant,TradeandRegionalIntegration,WorldBank.
2Correspondingauthor,SeniorEconomist,TradeandRegionalIntegration,WorldBank.eMail:dwinkler2@.
Thispaperwasdevelopedfortheproject“Leveragingtradeformoreandbetterjobopportunitiesindevelopingcountries”andalsoservesasinputtotheproject“Jobsandgrowthindevelopingcountries”(bothreportsareforthcoming).TheauthorsthankSébastienDessus,AartKraay,MarylaMaliszewska,GauravNayyar,MartínRama,andShuYuforveryhelpfulsuggestionsanddiscussions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldBankGroupanditsaffiliatedorganizations,itsExecutiveDirectorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.
2
1.Introduction
Atthefirmlevel,evidencesuggestsapositiveassociationbetweenafirm’stradingstatusandproductivity.Exportingfirmsareonaveragemoreproductive,largerandmoreskill-intensivethandomesticfirms(e.g.,Wagner2007,2012).Whilethepositivelinkbetweenexportingandproductivity(andtoalesserextentemployment)hasbeenestablishedatthefirmlevelinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries(LMICs),positiveproductivityspilloversalsoarisefromtheavailabilityofbetterinputsandservices,aswellasengagementinglobalvaluechains(GVCs)(Alfaro-Urena,Manelici,andVasquez2022,AmitiandKonings2007,Arnold,Javorcik,andMattoo2011).Additionally,foreigndirectinvestmentcontributestopositivespillovereffects(FernandesandPaunov2012,HavranekandIrsova2011,andJavorcik2004).
ParticipationinGVCstendstomagnifytheproductivitypremiumoftraditionalone-waytrade(WorldBank2020).DemandforworkerskillstendstobehigheramongGVC-participatingfirmsrelativetonon-GVCfirmsbecauseofhigherglobalqualitystandardsimposedbyleadfirmsinGVCs(WorldEconomicForum2015;CriscuoloandTimmis2017).Higherlaborproductivityandaveragewageratescaptureaspectsofjobquality.Canaproductivityandwageratepremiumofexportingactivitiesbeconfirmedattheaggregatelevelofcountriesandsectors?
Inthispaper,werelyontheOECDTradeinEmploymentandTradeinValueAddeddatabasesfordirectestimatesofvalueadded,laborcompensation,andemploymentwhichcanbeobservedseparatelyforexportactivities
3
andtherestoftheeconomy.Thedataareavailablefor45goodsandservicessectors(basedonISICRev.4sectors)spanningthewholeeconomyin60countriesacrossallincomelevelsfortheperiod1995-2020.Appendices1and2describetheunderlyingdataandcomputationsinmoredetail.
Appendices3and4giveanoverviewofthecountrysample(includingincomeclassifications)andsectorcoverage.
Thispaperfirstexaminesifworkerstiedtoexportactivitiesaremoreproductiveandarepaidhigherwageratesthanworkersinnon-exportactivities–atboththeaggregateandsectorlevelswithincountries.Toassessthisquestion,wecomputemeandifferencesbetweenexportandnon-exportactivitiesatboththecountryandcounty-sectorlevels.Wefindevidenceforaproductivitypremiumattheaggregatelevelandforthe26high-incomecountries(HICs)inthesample,whileawagepremiumcannotbeconfirmedintheremaining34low-andmiddle-incomecountries(LMICs).Ourfindings,however,rejecttheexistenceofaproductivityandwageratepremiumforexportactivitieswithincountry-sectorswhichmaybeexplainedbypositiveproductivityspilloversfromexporttonon-exportactivitieswithinsectors.
Inasecondstep,thisstudythereforeexplorestherelationshipbetweenincreasesinexportsandjobqualitywithincountry-sectorsmoreexplicitly,alsoallowingforspilloversfromexporttonon-exportactivities.Weregresslaborproductivityandwagerateonexportsatthecountry-sectorlevel.Spilloversfromexportactivitiestonon-exportactivitieswithinsectors,e.g.,duetocompetitionandlearningfromtradingfirms,canbeanadditionalsourceofproductivitygainswithincountry-sectors(e.g.,CrespoandFontoura2007,AlvarezandLopez2008).Toallowforpossiblespillovereffects,weregressproductivityandwageratesfornon-exportactivitiesonexportsinacountry-sector.Ourresultssuggestapositiveassociationbetweengrowthinexportsandjobqualityforexportactivitiesaswellaspositivespilloversfromexporttonon-exportactivities.
Besidestheproductivityincreaseswithinexportactivitiesandspilloverstonon-exportactivities,economy-wideproductivitygainsfromexportscanalsostemfromthereallocationofworkersfromlessproductivetomoreproductiveactivities–bothwithinandacrosssectors.Activitiesinthispaperreferto
3Thispaperfocusesondirectexportactivitieswithinsectors,i.e.,notaccountingforindirecteffectsindomesticsupplyingsectorsthroughinput-outputlinkages.
3
twobasicgroups:exportandnon-exportactivitieswithinasector(onecanalsothinkofactivitiesofexportingandnon-exportingfirmsintheaggregate).Tounderstandwhatisdrivingaggregatelaborproductivityinacountryrequiresdecomposingproductivitygrowthintoproductivitygainswithinactivitiesandsectors,andproductivitygainsbetweenactivitiesandsectors.Productivitygainswithinasectorcan,forinstance,occurifworkersmovefromlessproductivenon-exporttomoreproductiveexportactivities.Workerscanalsomovefromlessproductivenon-exportorexportactivitiestomoreproductiveexportactivitiesbetweensectors.
4
Inathirdstep,wedecomposethegrowthofcountries’aggregateproductivityandwageratestounderstandtheextenttowhichtheirgrowthisalsodrivenbymovementsofworkerstowardsmoreproductiveandbetter-paidexportactivitiesorsectors.Onechallengeofthisexercisestemsfromthefactthatourdatasetcontainsbothasectordimension(45sectors)andanactivitydimension(exportandnon-export)withinsectors.Inthispaper,weshowwithinandbetweendecompositions(i)byactivities,(ii)bysectors(forexportandnon-exportactivitiesseparately),and(iii)bysector-activitypairs.
5
Eachofthesedecompositionsallowstoshedsomelightontheroleoffactorreallocationtowardsmoreproductiveactivitiesorsectors.
Ourpaperisstructuredasfollows.Section2showsbroadtrendsofaveragelaborproductivityandwageratesforexportactivitiesandtherestoftheeconomy–overallandforHICsandLMICsseparately.Italsoassesseseconometricallyatthecountrylevelifthedifferenceinobservedjobqualitybetweenexportactivitiesandtherestoftheeconomyisstatisticallysignificant.Section3exploreswhetherhigherexportsareassociatedwithincreasedproductivityandwageratesatthecountry-sectorlevel,includingthroughspilloversfromexporttonon-exportactivities.Section4proposesthreetypesofdecompositionsoflaborproductivityandwagerategrowthtounderstandtheextenttowhichtheirgrowthisdrivenbyreallocationofworkersbetweenactivities,sectors,andsector-activitypairs.Section5concludes.
2.Doexportactivitiesholdaproductivityandwageratepremiumovertherestoftheeconomy?
2.1Trendsinaveragelaborproductivityandwageratesatthecountrylevel
Overall,exportactivitiesshowastrongproductivitypremiumovertherestoftheeconomy.
6
Theaveragelaborproductivityofdirectexportactivitiesislargerthanfortherestoftheeconomyinasampleof60countries(Figure1,upperleftpanel).Valueaddedperworker(in2015constantUSD)ofexportactivitiesrosefrom49.6thousandin1995to65.7thousandby2011butstagnatedoverthefollowingdecade.Splittingthesampleintotwoincomegroupssuggeststhatexportactivitiesin34LMICs(aspertheir1995incomeclassification)becamelessproductiveafter2012,droppingfromover36thousandto31thousandUSDperworkerby2020(bottomleftpanel).Bycontrast,averagelaborproductivityofexportactivitiesin26HICsincreaseduntil2018andremainedflatafterwards(middleleftpanel).Interestingly,laborproductivityintherestoftheeconomyexpandedataconstantpaceuntil2019butwashitduringCovid-19inthefullsample,andinHICsandLMICsseparately.
4Inthiscontext,itisalsoimportanttonotethatemploymentgainsfromexportsatthefirmleveldonotnecessarilymaterializeattheaggregatelevelofsectorsorcountriesifexportingfirmspullawayworkersfromdomesticfirmsorothersectors.
5Thereare90sector-activitypairs(45sectorsx2activities).
6Inthissection,weusethe‘restoftheeconomy’ratherthan‘non-exportactivities’astheseactivitiescanincludedomesticinputproductionforexportactivities.
4
Figure1:Laborproductivityandwagerate,total,exportactivitiesvs.restofeconomy,1995-2020
Averagelaborproductivity(thousandUSD)
Averagewagerate(thousandUSD)
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Laborproductivity(inthousandUSD),total
ExportactivitiesRestoftheeconomy
28
26
24
22
20
18
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Averagewagerate(inthousandUSD),total
ExportactivitiesRestoftheeconomy
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Laborproductivity(inthousandUSD),HICs
ExportactivitiesRestoftheeconomy
50
45
40
35
30
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Averagewagerate(inthousandUSD),HICs
ExportactivitiesRestoftheeconomy
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Laborproductivity(inthousandUSD),LMICs
ExportactivitiesRestoftheeconomy
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Averagewagerate(inthousandUSD),LMICs
ExportactivitiesRestoftheeconomy
Source:WBstaffcomputations.Data:OECDTiE(employment,laborcompensation),OECDTiVA(valueadded)andWDI(deflators).Note:Laborproductivityisdefinedasvalueaddedperworkerandtheaveragewagerateislaborcompensationperworker(inthousandUSD)inconstant2015USD$terms.WBGincomeclassificationsasof1995.
5
Similarly,theaveragelaborincomeperworkertiedtoexportactivitiesislargerthanthatfortherestoftheeconomyinthefullcountrysample.Itincreasedfrom19.6thousandUSDin1995toover27thousandUSDby2020(in2015constantUSD)forexportactivities,whileitgrewfrom18.6thousandUSDtoalmost25thousandUSDintherestoftheeconomy(Figure1,upperrightpanel).ThisfindingisdrivenbytheHICsinthesamplewherethepremiumincreasedovertime(middlerightpanel).Whiletheaveragepremiumwas2.6thousandUSDin1995,itreached6thousandUSDby2020.Bycontrast,LMICsdonotshowawagepremiumforexportactivities.Itratherappearsthatexportactivitiespaidslightlylowerwageratesthanactivitiesintherestoftheeconomyoverthisperiod(bottomrightpanel).
2.2Productivityandwagepremiuminexportactivitiesatthecountrylevel
Inthissection,wetestwhetherthelaborproductivitypremiumofexportactivitiesisstatisticallysignificant.Table1confirmsthattheaveragelaborproductivityofexportactivitiesissignificantlyhigherthanthatfortherestoftheeconomyinasampleof26HICsovertheperiod1995-2019.Weexcluded2020fromtheanalysisduetoCovid-19.Forexportactivities,averagelaborproductivityreached97.9thousandUSD(in2015constantterms)comparedto77.2thousandUSDfortherestoftheeconomy.
Similarly,thedifferenceisstatisticallysignificantinthesampleof34LMICs,withexportactivitiesshowinganaveragelaborproductivityof31.7thousandUSDcomparedto19.6thousandUSDintherestoftheeconomy.
Table1:Differenceinaveragelaborproductivity,exportactivitiesvs.restofeconomy,1995-2019,t-tests
High-incomecountries(asof1995)
Variable
Obs
Mean
Std.err.
Std.dev.
95%conf.interval
Laborproductivity,exportactivities
650
97.89292
1.986919
50.6567
93.99135
101.7945
Laborproductivity,restoftheeconomy
650
77.18721
0.850787
21.69091
75.51658
78.85784
diff
650
20.70571
1.462526
37.28725
17.83386
23.57756
mean(diff)=mean(lp_expdir-lp_rest)
t=14.1575
H0:mean(diff)=0
df=649
Ha:mean(diff)>0
Pr(T>t)=0.0000
Low-andmiddle-incomecountries(asof1995)
Variable
Obs
Mean
Std.err.
Std.dev.
95%conf.interval
Laborproductivity,exportactivities
850
31.66738
2.254097
65.71767
27.24312
36.09164
Laborproductivity,restoftheeconomy
850
19.62278
0.399976
11.66121
18.83773
20.40784
diff
850
12.04459
2.116946
61.71904
7.889534
16.19966
mean(diff)=mean(lp_expdir-lp_rest)
t=5.6896
H0:mean(diff)=0
df=849
Ha:mean(diff)>0
Pr(T>t)=0.0000
Source:WBstaffcomputations.Data:OECDTiE(employment),OECDTiVA(valueadded)andWDI(deflators).Note:lp_expdir=laborproductivityinexportactivities,lp_rest=laborproductivityinrestoftheeconomy.Laborproductivityisdefinedasvalueaddedperworker(inthousandUSD)inconstant2015USD$terms.WBGincomeclassificationsasof1995.Foradditionalinformation,seeAppendices1to4.
Figure2showsthedifferencesfor1995,2005and2019separately.InHICs,theproductivitypremiumisespeciallypronouncedincommodity-exportingcountrieslikeNorwayandSaudiArabia(andAustraliain2019),butalsoinservices-exportingcountrieslikeIreland,Luxembourg,andSwitzerland(andSingaporein2019).InLMICs,exportactivitiesshowaloweraveragelaborproductivityinseveralinstances,suchasBrazilorBulgaria.Interestingly,thereisnoevidenceforaproductivitypremiumofexportactivitiesin1995,whileitbecomesstatisticallysignificantin2005and2019.Theunderlyingt-testsforeachyearareshowninAppendices5and6.TheproductivitypremiumofexportactivitiesisparticularlyhighinKazakhstanandtheRussianFederationbutalsoMexicoin2019.
6
Figure2:Differenceinaveragelaborproductivity,exportactivitiesvs.restofeconomy,1995,2005and2019
High-incomecountries,1995
Low-andmiddle-incomecountries,1995
High-incomecountries,2005
Low-andmiddle-incomecountries,2005
High-incomecountries,2019
Low-andmiddle-incomecountries,2019
Source:WBstaffcomputations.Data:OECDTiE(employment),OECDTiVA(valueadded)andWDI(deflators).Note:Laborproductivityisdefinedasvalueaddedperworker(inthousandUSD)inconstant2015USD$terms.WBGincomeclassificationsasoftheyearshowninthegraphs.ExcludesSAUin1995duetoextremelyhighvaluesinexportactivities.Foradditionalinformation,seeAppendices1to4.
7
Bycontrast,LMICsdonotshowawagepremiumforexportactivitieswhichisonlyapparentinHICs.Table2showsthattheaveragewagerateofexportactivitiesissignificantlyhigherthanfortherestoftheeconomyinthesampleof26HICsovertheperiod1995-2019.Theaveragewagerateforexportactivitieswasaround44.7thousandUSD(in2015constantterms)comparedto40.2thousandUSDfortherestoftheeconomy.Inthesampleof34LMICs,exportactivitiesandtherestoftheeconomyshownowagedifference,withanaveragewagerateofbetween8.2thousandUSDand8.5thousandUSDinbothgroups.
Table2:Differenceinaveragewagerate,exportactivitiesvs.restoftheeconomy,1995-2019,t-tests
High-incomecountries(asof1995)
Variable
Obs
Mean
Std.err.
Std.dev.
95%conf.interval
Wagerate,exportactivities
650
44.6951
0.6382756
16.2729
43.44177
45.94844
Wagerate,restoftheeconomy
650
40.19281
0.5141029
13.1071
39.1833
41.20231
diff
650
4.502295
0.2002548
5.105516
4.10907
4.895521
mean(diff)=mean(w_expdir-w_rest)
t=22.4828
H0:mean(diff)=0
df=649
Ha:mean(diff)>0
Pr(T>t)=0.0000
Low-andmiddle-incomecountries(asof1995)
Variable
Obs
Mean
Std.err.
Std.dev.
95%conf.interval
Wagerate,exportactivities
850
8.189872
0.2052051
5.982707
7.787103
8.592641
Wagerate,restoftheeconomy
850
8.494331
0.1920752
5.599907
8.117333
8.871329
diff
850
-0.3044592
0.0695322
2.027194
0.4409343
0.1679841
mean(diff)=mean(w_expdir-w_rest)
t=-4.3787
H0:mean(diff)=0
df=849
Ha:mean(diff)>0
Pr(T>t)=1.0000
Source:WBstaffcomputations.Data:OECDTiE(employment),OECDTiVA(valueadded)andWDI(deflators).Note:w_expdir=wagerateinexportactivities,w_rest=wagerateinrestoftheeconomy.Thewagerateisdefinedasthelaborcompensationperworker(inthousandUSD)inconstant2015USD$terms.WBGincomeclassificationsasof1995.Foradditionalinformation,seeAppendices1to4.
Figure3showsthewagedifferencesfor1995,2005and2019separately.InHICs,thewagepremiumisparticularlystronginservices-orientedexportingcountrieslikeIreland,Luxembourg,Singapore,andSwitzerland–whichalsostoodoutintermsoftheirproductivitypremia.InLMICs,wefindahighvariationacrossthecountrysamplebutnoevidenceforawagepremiumofexportactivities.Malaysiaforinstanceshowedawagepremiumfortherestoftheeconomyinallthreeyears,whileArgentinapaidsubstantiallyhigherwagesinnon-exportactivitiesin1995.Similarly,exportactivitieswerepaidamuchlowerwagerateinBrazil,Bulgaria,andCostaRicain2019.Theunderlyingt-testsforeachyearareshowninAppendices7and8.
Overall,thefindingsimplyadecouplingofwagesfromproductivityinLMICs.Severalfactorsmayexplaintheabsenceofawagepremiumdespitetheproductivitypremium.First,researchsuggestthatparticipationinGVCscanbelinkedtodeclininglaborsharesdrivenbymorecapital-intensiveproductionwhichreducestherelativedemandforless-skilledworkers(e.g.,ReshefandSantoni2023).Newtechnologiesarerelatedtohigher-qualitystandardsandhigh-skilledlabor,raisingthebarriersforlow-skilledlaborinLMICstoparticipateinGVCs(Rodrik2018).
Second,thefactthatthereisaproductivitybutnotawagepremiumcouldbeexplainedbyuncompetitivelabormarketsthatdonotoptimallyallocateworkerstothemostproductivefirmsatmarket-clearingwagelevels.Thiscould,forexample,beduetohighersearchcostsandfrictionsinlow-incomecountries,especiallyinnon-tradableactivities,sothattheaveragewageratesdonotnecessarilyreflectthemarginalvalueproductofworkers(DonovanandSchoellman2023).
8
Figure3:Differenceinaveragewagerate,exportactivitiesvs.restoftheeconomy,1995,2005and2019
High-incomecountries,1995
Low-andmiddle-incomecountries,1995
High-incomecountries,2005
Low-andmiddle-incomecountries,2005
High-incomecountries,2019
Low-andmiddle-incomecountries,2019
Source:WBstaffcomputations.Data:OECDTiE(employment),OECDTiVA(valueadded)andWDI(deflators).Note:Thewagerateisdefinedasthelaborcompensationperworker(inthousandUSD)inconstant2015USD$terms.WBGincomeclassificationsasoftheyearshowninthegraphs.Foradditionalinformation,seeAppendices1to4.
9
SuchlabormarketfrictionshavebeenlinkedtolabormarketpoweroffirmswhichappearstobehigherinLMICs(Brooksetal.2021).FrictionscouldalsorelatetoinformalitywhichismoreprevalentinLMICs(LaPortaandShleifer2014).Whileinformalworkservesasabufferwhenformaljobopportunitiesarerare,itcanalsoincreasefirms’labormarketpowerwhenwageemploymentbecomesmoreappealing,puttingdownwardpressureonwages(Amodioetal.2022).Anotherpossiblefactormaybeadiscrepancybetweenthecompensationofgeneralskills(basedonexperienceandschooling)relativetofirm-specificskills(basedontenureandtraining),asobservedforKenya,althoughthelatterareassociatedwithlargerproductivitygains(vanBiesebroeck2011).
7
3.Whatistherelationshipbetweenexportsandjobqualitywithincountry-sectors?
3.1Productivityandwagepremiuminexportactivitiesatthecountry-sectorlevel
WhiletheprevioussectionestablishedalaborproductivitypremiumattheaggregatelevelofcountriesforHICsandLMICs,andawagepremiumforHICs,thissectionexamineswhethersuchpremiacanalsobedetectedatthelevelofsectorswithincountries.
Wethereforespecifythefollowinglaborproductivityregressionmodel:
lnLpcsa=a+β1EX_dummycsa+Dc+Ds(1)
whereLPdesignateslaborproductivity(valueaddedperworker)inlogs,cacountry,sasector,andathetypeofeconomicactivity(directexportactivityorrestofthesector).EX_dummyisadummytakingthevalueof1ifaworkerislinkedtoanexportactivityawithinsectors,and0iftheworkerislinkedtonon-exportactivitiesinthesector.Werelyonavectorofunobservedcountryandsectorfixedeffects.
Similarly,wespecifythefollowingwagerateregressionmodel:
lnwcsa=a+β1EX_dummycsa+Dc+Ds(2)
whereWdesignatesthewagerate(laborcompensationperworker)inlogs.
Table3showsthemeandifferences,asspecifiedinequation(1)(columns1to3)andequation(2)(columns4to6).Surprisingly,ourresultsfor2019donotfindasignificantdifferenceinaverageproductivityandwageratesbetweenexportandnon-exportactivitieswithincountry-sectorsinoursampleof60countries,norifwefocusonHICsandLMICsseparately.
Theabsenceofaproductivityandwageratepremiumforexportactivitieswithincountry-sectorscouldbedrivenbyinternationallyuncompetitivesectorsintheeconomy.Focusingonsectorsonlythathavearevealedcomparativeadvantage,asdefinedbytheBalassa(1965)indexdoesnotchangeourresults.Thereseemstobenoproductivityandwageratepremiumforworkersinexportactivities(resultsavailableuponrequest).
7Whilenotthefocusofthispaper,itisimportanttohighlightthatworkerscanalsobenefitfromtradeliberalizationthroughtheconsumerchannel.ResearchfortheUnitedStatesfinds,forinstance,thatincreasedtradewithChinabenefittedconsumersthroughsubstantialpricedeclines(JaravelandSager2019).InIndia,ontheotherhand,tradeliberalizationprimarilybenefittedproducersbyprovidingthemaccesstocheaperinputsandalargervarietyofinputs,loweringtheirproductioncostswhichresultedinreducedmarginalcostsandhighermarkups.Whilethesecostsavingswerenotfullytransferredtoconsumersintheformoflowerprices,consumerscouldnonethelesshavebenefittedfromaccesstohigherqualityproductsandlonger-termdynamicgains(deLoeckeretal.2016).
10
Table3:Withincountry-sectorproductivityandwagedifferencesbetweenexportactivitiesandtherestofthesector,2019
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5
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