IEF-2024年1月石油市场月报的比较分析（英）-2024.1

January

2024Oil

Market

ContextOil

pricesremain

range-bounddespiterisinggeopoliticalrisk

in

the

MiddleEastMore

shippers

are

avoiding

the

Red

Sea

following

a

series

of

attacks

on

transiting

ships

by

Yemen-basedHouthis.

The

Suez

Canal

and

Bab

al-Mandeb

Strait

carried

nearly

10%

of

all

seaborne

oil

trade

last

year.Several

oil

companies

have

suspended

shipments

through

the

area

and

elected

to

reroute

cargos

aroundAfrica’s

Cape

of

Good

Hope,

adding

10-14

days

to

the

voyage

time.

As

a

result

of

the

attacks,

a

US-ledcoalition

haslaunched

aseries

ofstrikes

on

Houthi

targets

in

Yemen.Additionally

in

the

region,

Iran

carried

out

strikes

in

Iraq,

Syria,

and

Pakistan

earlier

this

week.

Pakistan

thencarried

outaretaliatory

strike

into

Iran.Despite

the

geopolitical

escalation,

physical

oil

and

gas

production

have

not

yet

been

impacted

and

Brentcrude

prices

have

remained

range-bound

in

the

upper-$70s.

Economic

headwinds

and

negative

sentimenthavehelped

keep

prices

capped.Extreme

cold

and

winterweatherdisrupt

US

productionand

refineriesOil

production

in

North

Dakota,

the

US’third

largest

producing

state,

has

fallen

by

nearly

50%

(~700

kb/d)

thisweek

because

of

operational

challenges

from

extreme

cold

temperatures.

Freezing

weather

in

Texas

has

alsoresulted

in

reduced

operations

at

numerous

refineries.

US

physical

oil

prices

have

seen

some

upwardpressure,

but

the

outage

is

expected

to

be

temporary,and

the

futures

market

remains

largely

unaffected.Angola

leaves

OPECAngola

announced

in

late

December

it

was

leaving

OPEC

after

16

years

of

membership.

Angola

was

the

7thlargest

OPECmember,

producing

~1.1

mb/d

ofcrude.

There

are

now12OPEC

members.This

edition

of

the

Comparative

Analysis

report

includes

Angola

in

non-OPEC

production

figures

and

hasadjusted

the

month-on-month

revisionsto

account

for

its

reclassification

from

OPEC

to

non-OPEC.22023

has

come

to

an

end,

but

oil

balances

still

showunusually

large

divergences•

Data,

particularly

for

demand,

isrevisedroutinely

foryearstocome,

but

this

largeof

adivergenceat

theendof

the

year

isuncommon.2023

GlobalLiquids

Stock

Changemillion

barrels

per

day2.01.6•

The2023annual

balances

from

IEA,OPEC,andEIA

implyglobal

oilinventories

either

grewby0.3-0.7

mb/d

or

drew

by0.6

mb/d.1.51.11.00.70.70.7•

Thisisa1.3

mb/drange

for

2023andismorethan

3xthe

range

inestimates

for2022

(a0.4mb/d

gap).0.60.60.50.00.30.2•

4Q23data

isstill

considered

aforecast

and

thecurrent

estimates

of

theglobal

supply-demandbalance

divergeby

2.6mb/d.0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5-0.4-0.6•

However,

data

for

1Q23is9+

months

oldandbalance

estimates

still

divergeby0.9

mb/d.-0.9-0.9•

Allthree

forecasters

arefairly

alignedonnon-OPEC

production

estimates

for

theyear,

buttheir

estimates

onglobal

demand

levelsdifferby1mb/d

andonOPEC

supply

differ

by

0.6mb/d.-1.91Q232Q23IEA3Q234Q23EIA2023OPECSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO3Summary

of

2024-2025

BalancesOPEC

and

EIA

publishedinaugural2025forecasts

this

month.

IEA

is

scheduledto

introduceits

2025forecast

inApril.•

Demand

growth

forecasts

divergeby1.0

mb/d

in2024

and

0.6

mb/d

in2025.

OPECsees

the

most

robustgrowth

both

years.IEA

sees

OECDdemand

contracting

this

yearand

EIA

sees

itcontracting

nextyear.•

OPECand

EIA’s

2025

global

demand

level

forecasts

divergeby2.5

mb/d

–roughly

equivalentto

thecurrent

consumption

levels

of

South

Korea

or

Canada.•

Non-OPECsupply

isforecast

to

grow

by0.9-1.4

mb/d

inboth

2024

and

2025.•

OPECand

EIA

both

see

the

call

onOPEC

rising

in2024

and

2025

as

demand

growth

outpaces

non-OPECsupply

growthin

both

years.2024&2025Balance

Summarylowest

forecast20242025highest

forecastIEA1Q24101.7103.3102.145.445.646.156.357.756.175.075.475.326.727.926.82Q24102.7103.9102.145.545.945.657.358.056.675.975.575.526.828.426.63Q24103.7104.9102.845.646.346.258.058.556.576.376.075.927.328.926.84Q24103.8105.3102.845.946.246.357.959.156.576.576.676.127.328.726.72024103.0104.4102.545.646.046.157.458.356.475.975.975.727.028.526.82024Y/Y1.21Q252Q253Q254Q2520252025Y/YGlobal

DemandOECD

DemandOPECEIA2.2105.2103.2105.7103.4106.9104.0107.0104.1106.2103.71.81.21.4IEA-0.10.3OPECEIA45.745.946.045.546.546.246.346.346.146.00.10.1-0.1IEA1.4Non-OECDDemandOPECEIA2.059.457.359.757.960.557.860.857.860.157.71.71.31.3IEA1.4Non-OPECSupply*

andOPEC

NGLsOPECEIA1.477.176.076.976.477.276.877.777.277.276.61.40.90.9IEA-0.20.8Call

onOPECOPECEIA28.127.328.727.029.727.229.326.929.027.10.50.30.5*

Includes

biofuels

and

processing

gainsSource:

IEF,

IEAOMR,OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO42024

Outlook

Comparison5Summary

of

2024

Balances

and

Revisions•

Allthree

forecasters

revised

up

2024

non-OPEC

supply

on

stronger

US

outlooks.

OPECalsorevised

upits

Russian

outlook

by0.2

mb/d.•

IEA

and

EIA

also

revised

up

their

global

demand

outlook

by0.1-0.2

mb/d

onstronger

US

andEurope

forecasts.•

Despite

the

upward

revisions,

demand

forecasts

continue

to

diverge

sharply.IEA

sees

only

1.2mb/d

of

global

demand

growth

nextyearwhile

OPECcontinues

to

see

2.2

mb/d.•

EIA

continues

to

see

0.5

mb/d

less

non-OPEC

supply

growth

than

IEA

and

OPECdue

to

alowerUS

and

Kazakhstan

forecast.2024Balance

SummaryUpdated

ForecastRevisionsto

Last

Month'sForecast1Q24101.7103.3102.145.445.646.156.357.756.175.075.475.326.026.727.926.82Q24102.7103.9102.145.545.945.657.358.056.675.975.575.526.826.828.426.63Q24103.7104.9102.845.646.346.258.058.556.576.376.075.926.927.328.926.84Q24103.8105.3102.845.946.246.357.959.156.576.576.676.126.827.328.726.72024103.0104.4102.545.646.046.157.458.356.475.975.975.726.627.028.526.82024Y/Y1.21Q240.2-0.30.10.1-0.10.10.2-0.20.00.20.40.10.00.0-0.70.02Q240.30.30.10.10.00.10.20.30.00.20.30.20.00.10.0-0.13Q240.30.10.10.2-0.20.10.10.30.00.20.30.20.00.0-0.2-0.14Q24-0.2-0.10.120240.20.00.10.1-0.10.10.10.10.00.30.30.10.0-0.1-0.30.02024Y/Y0.2IEAGlobal

DemandOECD

DemandOPECEIA2.20.01.40.0IEA-0.10.30.00.1OPECEIA0.00.00.10.10.1IEA1.4-0.2-0.10.00.1Non-OECD

DemandOPECEIA2.00.01.30.0IEA1.40.60.2Non-OPEC

Supply*

andOPEC

NGLsOPECEIA1.40.30.00.90.20.0OPEC

Crude**Call

onOPECEIA-0.3-0.20.8-0.1-0.7-0.40.00.0IEA0.0OPECEIA0.00.50.0Global

StockChange

andMisc

to

Balance**EIA-0.80.10.10.0-0.10.00.10.1-0.10.0*

Includes

biofuels

andprocessing

gains**Only

EIA

publishes

aforecast

ofOPECcrude

productionandglobalstock

changeSource:IEF,

IEAOMR,OPEC

MOMR,

EIASTEO6Evolution

of

2024Annual

Demand

Growth

Forecasts•

OPEC’s

2024

globaldemandgrowth

forecast

is

1.0

mb/dhigherthan

IEA’s

duetoahigherOECD,

MiddleEast,andRussianforecasts.•

IEA

sees

OECD

demanddeclining

by0.1

mb/d

next

year,

while

OPEC

sees

0.3

mb/dgrowth.GlobalDemand

GrowthEvolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperdayOECD

Demand

GrowthEvolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday1.5Non-OECD

Demand

GrowthEvolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday2.52.52.01.51.00.50.02.01.51.00.50.01.00.50.0-0.5IEAApr-23OPECEIAOct-23

Jan-24IEAApr-23OPECEIAOct-23IEAOPECEIAOct-23-1.0Jan-23Jan-23Jul-23Forecast

VintageJan-24Jan-23Jul-23Forecast

VintageApr-23Jul-23Forecast

VintageJan-24Source:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR7OPEC

continues

to

see

consistently

higher

demand

levelsthrough

2024,

ending

the

year

above

105

mb/d2023-24Global

Demanddemand

inmillion

barrels

per

day106105104103102101100991Q232Q23OPEC3Q234Q23IEA

previous1Q242Q243Q24EIAprevious4Q24IEAEIAOPECpreviousSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR8OPEC

sees

more

robust

demand

growth

than

IEA

in

theOECD,

India,

Russia,

and

the

Middle

East2024

Demand

Growth

Forecasts

by

Regiony/ygrowth

in

million

barrels

perdayRange

in

2024

Demand

GrowthForecasts2.50IEAGlobalTotalNon-OECDTotalOECDChina1.00.7OPEC2.000.40.4EIA1.50OtherNon-OECDOECDAmericasMiddleEastRussia0.30.30.31.000.500.00-0.500.20.20.10.10.0OECDEuropeIndiaOECDAsiaAfricamillionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR9Non-OPEC

supply

forecasts

for

2024

are

significantly

morealigned

than

2023

estimates2023-24Non-OPEC

Supplysupplyinmillion

barrels

per

day71.571.070.570.069.569.068.568.067.51Q232Q23OPEC3Q234Q23IEA

previous1Q242Q243Q24EIAprevious4Q24IEAEIAOPECpreviousSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR10Evolution

of

2024Annual

Non-OPEC

Supply

GrowthForecasts•

EIA

continues

to

see

lowernon-OPEC

supply

growth

than

IEA

and

OPECdue

to

aweakerUS,Canada,Norway,

and

Kazakhstan

outlook.•

IEA

has

revised

upUS

supply

growth

by0.3

mb/d

over

the

past

twomonths.Non-OPEC

Supply

GrowthEvolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperdayUS

Supply

GrowthEvolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday1.6Russia

Supply

GrowthEvolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday1.21.6IEAOPECEIA1.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.01.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.01.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2-0.4IEAApr-23OPECEIAOct-23IEAApr-23OPECEIAOct-23Jan-23Jul-23Forecast

VintageJan-24Jan-23Jul-23Forecast

VintageJan-24Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Forecast

VintageOct-23Jan-24Source:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR11EIA

sees

the

weakest

non-OPEC

supply

growth

largely

dueto

a

lower

US,

Canada,

Norway,

and

Kazakhstan

forecast2024

Supply

Growth

Forecasts

by

Regiony/ygrowth

in

million

barrels

perdayRange

in

2024

Supply

GrowthForecasts1.6TotalNon-OPEC0.5IEA

OPEC

EIA1.4TotalOECDUS0.40.31.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2Norway0.10.10.10.1BrazilRussiaCanadaTotalNon-OECDKazakhstanOPEC

NGLsOtherOECDOtherNon-OECDChina0.10.10.10.10.10.0millionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR12OPEC

sees

a

much

higher

“call

on

OPEC”

vs.

IEA

and

EIAdue

to

a

more

robust

demand

outlook2024

Call

on

OPEC

and

Recent

OPEC

ProductionLevelsmillion

barrelsper

day29.5•

The“callonOPEC

crude”

isacalculation

andnotaforecast

ofactual

OPEC29.0production.28.5•

The“callonOPEC”28.0estimateswhat

OPEC

wouldneedto

produce

tobalanceglobalsupplyand

demand.27.527.026.526.025.525.0•

It

is

estimatedbysubtractingaforecast

for

non-OPECproductionandOPEC

NGLsfromglobaldemand.1Q24IEA2Q24OPEC3Q244Q242024AvgEIADecember2023OPECproductionSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR132025

Outlook

Comparison14OPEC

continues

to

see

consistently

higher

demand

levelsthrough

next

year,

ending

2025

at

107

mb/d2023-25Global

Demanddemand

inmillion

barrels

per

day108107106105104103102101100991Q232Q233Q234Q23OPEC1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25EIASource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR15China,

India,

Middle

East,

Africa,

and

other

non-OECD

areexpected

to

drive

demand

growth

next

year2025

Demand

Growth

Forecasts

by

Regiony/ygrowth

in

million

barrels

perdayRange

in

2025

Demand

GrowthForecastsGlobalTotalNon-OECDOtherNon-OECDTotalOECDChina0.62.0OPEC0.5EIA1.50.20.20.21.00.5MiddleEastOECDAmericasOECDEuropeIndia0.10.10.00.00.00.00.0RussiaOECDAsiaAfrica-0.50.0millionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR16Non-OPEC

supply

forecasts

for

2025

are

surprisingly

morealigned

than

2023

historic

estimates2023-25Non-OPEC

Supplysupplyinmillion

barrels

per

day73727170696867661Q232Q233Q234Q231Q24OPEC2Q243Q244Q241Q25EIA2Q253Q254Q25Source:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR17The

US

accounts

for

>40%

of

2025

non-OPEC

supplygrowth

forecasts2025

Supply

Growth

Forecasts

by

RegionRange

in

2025

Supply

Growthy/ygrowth

in

million

barrels

perdayForecastsTotalNon-OPECTotalOECDUS1.400.3OPECEIA0.31.200.21.000.800.600.400.200.00-0.20OPEC

NGLsOtherOECDOtherNon-OECDBrazil0.20.10.00.0Russia0.00.00.00.00.00.0NorwayKazakhstanTotalNon-OECDCanadaChinamillionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR18OPEC

sees

a

much

higher

“call

on

OPEC”

vs.

EIA

due

to

amore

robust

demand

outlook

and

a

tighter

baseline2025

Call

on

OPEC

and

Recent

OPEC

ProductionLevelsmillion

barrelsper

day30.029.529.028.528.027.527.026.526.025.525.0•

The“callonOPEC

crude”

isacalculation

andnotaforecast

ofactual

OPECproduction.•

The“callonOPEC”estimateswhat

OPEC

wouldneedto

produce

tobalanceglobalsupplyand

demand.•

It

is

estimatedbysubtractingaforecast

for

non-OPECproductionandOPEC

NGLsfromglobaldemand.1Q25OPEC2Q253Q254Q252025AvgEIADecember2023OPECproductionSource:IEF,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR19Appendix202023

Outlook

Comparison21Summary

of

2023

Balances

and

Revisions•••Allthree

forecasters

revisedup

4Q23

non-OPEC

supply

significantly

on

stronger

US,Brazil,and

Russiansupply.Annual

demand

growth

estimates

stilldivergeby0.6

mb/d

with

OPEC

seeing

thestrongest

growth

and

EIA

theweakest.The

estimate

ofthe

annual

stockchange

divergesby1.3

mb/d.

1Q23

estimates

arethemost

aligned,

but

stilldiffer

by0.9

mb/d.2023

Balance

SummaryUpdated

ForecastRevisions

to

Last

Month's

Forecast1Q23100.2101.3100.045.445.445.354.955.954.773.574.273.728.327.827.426.727.126.31.62Q23101.8101.8100.945.745.745.756.156.155.274.074.274.327.827.227.227.827.626.60.03Q23102.9102.2101.546.046.046.256.856.255.375.174.975.426.926.426.427.827.426.2-0.94Q23102.0103.2101.845.946.046.556.157.255.375.574.675.927.026.726.626.528.625.90.62023101.7102.1101.145.745.845.956.056.355.174.574.574.827.527.026.927.227.626.20.32023Y/Y2.31Q230.0-0.30.00.0-0.10.00.0-0.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.1-0.30.0-0.10.20.02Q230.10.30.00.00.00.00.10.30.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.10.30.0-0.2-0.30.03Q230.00.10.00.0-0.20.00.00.30.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.00.10.0-0.1-0.10.14Q23-0.2-0.10.220230.00.00.10.0-0.10.00.00.10.00.10.30.12023Y/Y0.0IEAGlobal

DemandOECD

DemandOPECEIA2.50.01.90.1IEA0.1-0.10.00.0OPECEIA0.10.00.30.20.0IEA2.2-0.1-0.10.00.0Non-OECD

DemandOPECEIA2.40.01.70.0IEA2.40.60.2Non-OPEC

Supply*

andOPEC

NGLsOPECEIA2.11.30.32.40.30.1IEA-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.10.3OPEC

Crude**Call

onOPECOPECEIA0.0-0.8-1.4-0.10.0-0.2-0.30.00.0-0.2-0.30.0IEAOPECEIA-0.4Global

StockChangeandMiscellaneoustoBalance**IEAOPECEIA0.7-0.4-0.9-1.9-0.61.10.60.20.70.70.10.0*Includes

biofuels

andprocessing

gains**Only

EIA

publishes

a

forecast

ofOPECcrude

production

and

globalstock

changeSource:

IEF,

IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,

EIASTEO22China

drives

the

largest

demand

growth

forecastdivergence

withIEA

seeing

1

mb/d

higher

growth

vs.

EIA2023

Demand

Growth

Forecasts

by

Regiony/ygrowth

in

million

barrels

perday2.75Range

in

2023

Demand

GrowthForecastsChina0.92.502.252.001.751.501.251.000.750.500.250.00-0.25IEATotalNon-OECDGlobal0.7OPECEIA0.5MiddleEastTotalOECDOtherNon-OECDOECDAmericasAfrica0.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.1RussiaOECDEuropeIndiaOECDAsia0.0millionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO23OPEC

revised

up

its

4Q