2024年基础设施行业的新兴趋势（英）

Emerging

trends

ininfrastructure2024

editionKPMGInternational/infratrendsForewordEnabling

transitionsAll

at

one

time,

we

want

to

change

our

energy

mix,

our

climate,our

economies,

our

global

trade

patterns,

our

cities,

ourtechnology

and

our

social

equity.

And

we

plan

to

do

it

all

againsta

backdrop

of

a

non-stationary

environment,

divisive

geopoliticalrhetoric

and

deep

economic

uncertainty.

It

is

a

mammoth

task.Humanity’s

success

or

failure

will

largely

rest

on

the

shouldersof

our

infrastructure.

Infrastructure

will

be

central

to

the

energytransition

and

achieving

our

climate

adaptation

goals.

It

catalyzeseconomic

growth

and

facilitates

trade.

It

underpins

urbanrenewal,

lays

the

foundations

for

digital

transformation

and

—when

done

well

—

can

help

embed

social

equity.2

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Emerging

trends

in

infrastructure©2024

Copyright

owned

by

one

or

more

of

the

KPMG

International

entities.

KPMG

International

entities

provide

no

services

to

clients.

All

rights

reserved.To

achieve

this

we

need

to

change

(and

improve)

the

way

we

plan,

fund,

develop

and

operate

our

infrastructure.

It

will

requirecollaboration,

new

funding

mechanisms,

innovative

regulatory

regimes,

new

construction

techniques,

broader

skill

sets

and

—more

than

anything

—

a

high

degree

of

flexibility

and

creativity.

Business

as

usual

is

not

an

option.

Countries,

territories,

cities

andcorporates

have

to

reinvent

themselves

as

well

as

up-skill

and

innovate

to

meet

the

emerging

changes

and

potential

opportunities.Enabling

the

world’s

transitions,

therefore,

must

start

with

a

transition

in

the

infrastructure

sector.In

this

edition

of

Emerging

Trends

in

Infrastructure,

KPMG

infrastructure

professionals

share

their

view

of

the

ten

trends

that

—

in

ouropinion

—

have

the

potential

to

shape

the

world

of

infrastructure

in

2024.

Where

there

was

a

choice

to

be

optimistic

or

pessimistic,

wechose

the

former;

we

believe

humanity

can

pull

together

to

solve

the

urgent

challenges

the

world

faces.As

always,

we

hope

that

this

edition

of

Emerging

Trends

in

Infrastructure

inspires

readers

to

think

differently

about

the

challengesfacing

humanity

and

the

opportunities

and

solutions

that

could

be

created

by

the

infrastructure

sector

to

achieve

our

collective

goals.At

KPMG

member

firms,

our

multidisciplinary

teams

of

infrastructure

professionals

are

dedicated

to

helping

public

and

private

sectororganizations

deliver

the

outcomes

they

are

seeking,

as

efficiently

and

effectively

as

possible.

KPMG

professionals

thrive

on

helpingsolve

the

world’s

biggest

challenges.

And

we

are

eager

to

share

our

insights

and

knowledge

as

we

move

towards

a

transformedinfrastructure

sector.To

learn

more

about

the

trends

and

topics

raised

in

this

report,

we

encourage

you

to

contact

your

local

KPMG

member

firm.3

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Emerging

trends

in

infrastructure©2024

Copyright

owned

by

one

or

more

of

the

KPMG

International

entities.

KPMG

International

entities

provide

no

services

to

clients.

All

rights

reserved.About

the

lead

authorsRichard

ThrelfallMichele

ConnollySharad

SomaniHead

of

Infrastructure,

Asia

Pacific,Head

of

ESGPartner,

KPMG

in

Singaporesharadsomani@.sgSharad

SomaniGlobal

Head

of

Infrastructure,Government

and

HealthcareKPMG

InternationalHead

of

Infrastructure,

EMA

regionHead

of

Corporate

FinancePartner,

KPMG

in

Irelandmichele.connolly@kpmg.ieMichele

Conollyrichard.threlfall@kpmg.co.ukRichard

Threlfall@michelec_kpmg@sharadsomaniRichard

has

almost

30

years’experience

in

policy,

governance,strategy

and

financing,

advisingboth

public

and

private

sector

clientsin

the

UK

and

overseas.

He

has

along-standing

reputation

for

leadingclients

through

complex

and

politicallyhigh-profile

transactions

and

providingstrategic,

financial

and

governanceadvice.

Richard

is

Chair

of

theMichele

is

KPMG’s

Head

of

CorporateFinance

in

Ireland

and

EMA

Head

ofInfrastructure,

providing

strategicand

financial

advice

to

clients

in

arange

of

industries.

She

specializesin

infrastructure

delivery

across

anasset

life

cycle

from

strategy,

policythrough

procurement

and

financingto

long

term

project

delivery.

She

alsosupports

clients

in

loan

sales,

bankingrescheduling/restructuring

negotiationsfor

both

property

and

tradingSharad

leads

the

Infrastructure

Advisorypractice

in

Singapore,

covering

projectfinancing,

economics

&

regulatory

andmajor

projects

advisory.

He

has

over

20years

of

experience

across

infrastructuresectors:

power,

including

renewableenergy,

water,

waste

to

energy,

andLNG;

transport;

broadband;

and

urban/industrial

infrastructure.

He

has

extensiveexperience

advising

both

governmentand

private

sector

clients

across

theproject

life

cycle,

from

conceptualizationto

financing,

implementation

andInternational

Coalition

for

SustainableInfrastructure,

and

is

a

Fellow

of

theInstitution

of

Civil

Engineers.businesses.

Michele

has

significantexperience

in

the

area

of

projectperformance

improvement.

Morefinance,

and

leads

the

KPMG

in

Irelandteam

on

a

wide

range

of

notable

PublicPrivate

Partnership

transactions.recently,

Sharad

has

worked

on

keyprojects

in

South

East

Asia

and

theMiddle

East

regions

covering

utility

scalerenewable

energy

projects,

smart

cityinfrastructure

deployments

and

use

oftechnology

in

effective

project

delivery.4

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Emerging

trends

in

infrastructure©2024

Copyright

owned

by

one

or

more

of

the

KPMG

International

entities.

KPMG

International

entities

provide

no

services

to

clients.

All

rights

reserved.ContentsClick

on

the

topics

below

to

learn

more

about

each

trend.Trend1Trend3Trend5Trend7Trend9A

broader

focus

forthe

JustTransitionThe

rise

ofphilanthropiccapitalContracting

fortechnologyReforming

theregulatory

remitThe

race

to

greengrowthTrend2Trend4Trend6Trend8Trend

10A

turn

ingeopoliticsTowards

the‘infrastructuremesh’Driving

the

energytransitionBending

notbreakingThe

nextfrontier5

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trends

in

infrastructure©2024

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owned

by

one

or

more

of

the

KPMG

International

entities.

KPMG

International

entities

provide

no

services

to

clients.

All

rights

reserved.TrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrend123456789

10Trend

1:A

broader

focusfor

the

JustTransition6

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trends

in

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Copyright

owned

by

one

or

more

of

the

KPMG

International

entities.

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entities

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to

clients.

All

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reserved.TrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrend123456789

10A

broader

focus

for

the

Just

TransitionChange

creates

opportunity.

And,

as

the

world

transitions

towardsa

clean

energy

future,

society

faces

a

historic

opportunity

to

ensurethat

the

transition

is

just,

fair

and

equitable.

It

is

an

opportunity

wecannot

afford

to

squander.

The

world

would

be

considerably

worse-off

if

we

do.In

order

to

meet

the

UN

SDGs,

the

world

should

be

ensuringeconomic

development

and

transition

to

low

carbon

happens

togetherrather

than

at

the

cost

of

each

other.

This

would

require

greaterfocus

on

capability

development,

investment

in

R&D,

promotingalternate

industries

and

creating

new

pillars

of

economic

growth

—decarbonization,

energy

efficiency,

smart

infrastructure.

The

launchof

the

Just

Energy

Transition

Partnership

(JETP)

in

Indonesia,

is

alandmark,

long

term

partnership

designed

to

create

an

ambitiousand

just

power

sector

transition

in

Indonesia.

The

JETP

will

focus

notonly

on

delivering

strong

emissions

reductions,

but

also

on

drivingsustainable

development

and

economic

growth,

while

protecting

theTo

date,

much

of

the

conversation

around

the

‘just

transition’

hasbeen

focused

on

jobs.

Yet

solving

the

jobs

part

of

the

equation

may

bethe

easy

task.

Other

industries

have

gone

through

similar

disruptionin

the

past;

governments

have

a

good

idea

of

what

it

takes

to

re-skillpeople

and

diversify

economies.

Besides,

it

now

seems

clear

that

thetransition

away

from

fossil

fuel

usage

will

take

some

time.1livelihoods

of

communities

and

workers

in

affected

sectors.3The

bigger

challenge

is

likely

to

be

in

ensuring

that

investment,development

and

sustainability

outcomes

are

spread

equitablybetween

developed

and

emerging

markets.

The

reality

is

thatmassive

investment

will

need

to

be

placed

into

scaling

uprenewables

(as

KPMG

international’s

recent

report,

Turning

thetide

in

scaling

renewables

finds,

the

gap

between

the

investmentThis

year

will

be

critical

to

bridge

the

divide

between

the

developedmarkets

and

emerging

nations

and

build

trust

by

ensuring

pilotprojects

are

successfully

implemented

and

are

the

showcase

forfuture

projects.

The

‘loss

&

damage

fund’

formalized

at

COP28

isa

good

start,

but

what

the

world

should

be

ensuring

is

multi-party4commitment

to

a

‘recover

&

restore’

approach

that

drives

constructiveinterventions

with

a

view

to

accelerate

sustainable

social

change.needed

and

capital

deployed

is

wide),

improving

climate

adaptation2in

high-risk

geographies,

creating

supportive

regulatory

regimes,developing

new

economy

skills

and

capabilities,

and

capacityThe

infrastructure

sector

is

likely

to

play

a

key

role.

Infrastructurebuilding,

for

example.

And

the

developed

world

is

currently

capturing

investors

will

have

an

opportunity

to

shape

the

capital

flows.

Ownersthe

lion’s

share

of

those

inflows.and

operators

can

influence

the

value

expectations.

Developerscan

help

ensure

supply

chains

and

approaches

are

diversifiedand

sustainable.

Regulators

will

make

sure

consumer

rights

andexpectations

are

being

met.The

emerging

markets

are

also

seeing

massive

increases

in

cleanenergy

investment

and

capacity.

It

is

likely

that

future

investmentsinto

traditional

energy

sources

will

likely

be

channeled

to

theemerging

markets

where

regulations

are

less

clear

and

where

somecountries

still

have

not

defined

their

decarbonization

pathways

or

setnet

zero

targets.Over

the

coming

year,

some

governments

and

internationalorganizations

are

expected

to

start

broadening

their

definitionof

‘just

transition’

and,

with

it,

encourage

greater

collaborationbetween

nations,

sectors

and

citizens.

Multilateral

organizations

andcollaborative

alliances

—

like

KPMG’s

membership

with

the

WWFNot

only

could

this

create

an

imbalance

in

how

the

benefits

ofthe

energy

transition

are

spread

around

the

world,

it

also

createssignificant

risk

for

Development

Finance

Institutions

(DFIs)

andprivate

investors

seeking

to

fund

projects

in

hard

to

abate

sectors

inthese

countries

(steel

and

cement

in

particular).

As

a

result,

attemptsto

develop

cleaner,

more

sustainable

infrastructure

in

these

marketsare

being

marginalized.and

UNDP

as

part

of

the

Alliance

for

a

Just

Energy

Transition

—

will5be

critical

to

driving

this

change

and

achieving

a

balanced

outcome.And

infrastructure

investors,

developers

and

operators

are

expectedto

start

to

pay

much

more

attention

to

the

emerging

markets

which,in

turn,

should

help

put

just

transition

into

practice.12345KPMG

in

Singapore,

Navigating

the

post-COP28

landscape

for

global

decarbonisation,

2023KPMG

international,

Turning

the

tide

in

scaling

renewables,

2023US

Embassy

&

Consulates

in

Indonesia,

United

States

supports

the

launch

of

the

Just

Energy

Transition

Partnership(JETP)in

Indonesia,

2023WWF,

The

agreement

on

the

Loss

and

Damage

Fund

marks

a

positive

start,

now

countries

must

deliver

the

finance

to

the

vulnerable

communities

needs,

2023UNDP,

The

Alliance

for

a

Just

Energy

Transformation,

20237

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All

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reserved.TrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrend123456789

10Trend

2:A

turn

ingeopolitics8

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or

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10A

turn

in

geopoliticsThe

world

is

in

a

state

of

geopolitical

and

social

upheaval.

Facinga

range

of

pernicious

challenges

—

economic,

climate,

trade,inequality

and

technological,

to

name

a

few

—

that

are

impactingpeople’s

day-to-day

lives

and

influencing

global

political

agendas.and

climate

agendas.

A

win-win

partnership

needs

to

evolve

focusedon

leveraging

technology,

innovative

and

alternate

capital

as

well

asbroader

policy

alignment

to

drive

growth.Should

the

world

veer

towards

less

partnership

and

collaboration,

theimpact

on

the

infrastructure

sector

will

be

significant.

InfrastructureAs

the

climate

emergency

becomes

more

acute,

schisms

between6various

regions

of

the

world

deepen,

and

economic

uncertainties

and

investors

and

owners

may

struggle

to

square

away

the

uncertaintydebt

challenges

start

to

bite,

there

may

be

further

fracturing

of

global

and

regulatory

complexity,

thereby

slowing

dealmaking

and

reducingconsensus

and

an

increase

in

conflict

as

countries

and

territories

vieover

scarce

resources,

capital

and

power.investment

right

at

a

time

when

the

world

needs

it

most.

The

cost

ofprojects

could

increase

as

construction

companies

and

developersprice

new

risks

into

their

bids.

Projects

in

the

developing

marketsthat

need

it

the

most

may

get

stalled

waiting

for

policy

certainty,government

direction

and

flow

of

international

capital.With

collaboration,

partnership

and

trust

in

short

supply

and

geo-political

and

economic

head

winds

dominating

the

headlines,

theactual

and

perceived

risks

to

businesses

have

grown

multi-fold.More

than

40

percent

of

the

world’s

population

is

set

to

elect

newgovernments

this

year

(including

India,

Indonesia,

South

Africa

andthe

US),

so

expect

the

rhetoric

and

uncertainty

to

rise.This

year,

some

infrastructure

players

and

investors

are

expectedto

focus

on

finding

ways

to

measure,

manage

and

mitigate

therisk

of

uncertainty

as

a

hedge

against

a

shift

away

from

globalcollaboration.

Additionally,

it

is

hoped

that

to

see

leaders

andpolicymakers

start

to

focus

on

collaboration

over

competition,global

good

over

national

protectionism,

and

action

over

rhetoric.However,

there

is

optimism

that

the

real

impacts

of

the

climateemergency

and

the

need

for

a

just

transition

could

inspiresome

countries,

institutions

and

leaders

to

put

the

global

goodahead

of

their

national

interests

and

come

together

to

forgenew

alliances

focused

on

building

consensus

and

forming

thefoundations

for

collaboration.KPMG

is

cautiously

optimistic

about

the

triumph

of

economics

andgood

policies

over

protectionism

and

divisive

short-term

strategies.In

more

ways

than

one,

what

the

world

does

in

2024

may

definethe

trajectory

for

the

rest

of

the

decade

and

set

the

stage

for

ourability

to

meet

(or

fall

woefully

short

of)

our

net

zero

and

SDG

goals.This

would

be

good

news.

KPMG

believes

that

all

stakeholdersshould

come

together

and

drive

consensus

on

critical

developmentalSnapshot

of

elections

across

the

globe

in

2024Bangladesh,Bhutan,Taiwan,

FinlandIran,Ireland,Portugal,RussiaPanama,Lithuania,DominicanRepublicRwandaUnitedStates,MauritiusFebruaryAprilJuneOctoberDecemberJanuaryMarchMayJulyNovemberElSalvador,

Azerbaijan,Pakistan,Indonesia,Senegal,BelarusIceland,Mexico,BelgiumMozambique,Uruguay,

UKSouthKoreaGhana6WWF,

The

Climate

Crisis,

20239

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entities.

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10Trend

3:The

rise

ofphilanthropiccapital10

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10The

rise

of

philanthropic

capitalEven

before

the

pandemic,

governments

around

the

world

werestruggling

to

fund

all

the

infrastructure

they

needed.

The

fiscalsupports

and

economic

impacts

of

the

pandemic

have

madethe

task

nearly

impossible.

As

evidenced

by

the

revised

futureallocated

to

infrastructure

development

is

rising.

Part

of

theincreased

flow

is

coming

from

global

philanthropic

organizationsthat

have

always

been

focused

on

catalyzing

positive

outcomesfor

society.

And

KPMG

member

firms

are

also

seeing

increasedallocations

coming

from

family

offices

and

ultra-high-net-worthindividuals

seeking

to

make

an

impact.development

plans

HS2

(a

high

speed

rail

line)

in

the

UK,

even7the

most

developed

markets

may

struggle

to

find

the

fiscal

spaceto

deliver

on

all

their

stated

objectives.Working

in

partnership

with

MDBs

and

development

agencies,these

philanthropic

investors

are

using

their

financial

strengthand

different

return

expectations

to

help

MDBs

crowd

moreprivate

sector

capital

into

projects

using

forms

of

‘blendedAs

the

world

approaches

the

2030

energy

transition

milestone(global

greenhouse

gas

emissions

need

to

be

cut

43

percentby

2030,

compared

to

2019

levels,

to

limit

global

warming

to1.5°C),

it

is

becoming

increasingly

clear

that

exponentially

moreinvestment

will

be

needed.

Yet

governments

simply

do

not

havethe

budgets

to

make

this

a

reality.finance’

(a

topic

high

on

the

agenda

at

COP28)

where8development

and

philanthropic

funds

are

used

to

reduce

therisk

for

private

capital,

thereby

making

projects

more

bankableand

attractive.In

the

emerging

markets,

it

often

falls

on

the

MultilateralDevelopment

Banks

(MDB)

and

big

national

developmentagencies

to

bridge

the

gap.

In

part,

this

is

about

helping

marketsand

their

regulators

to

improve

governance,

enhance

projectpreparation

capabilities

and

prioritize

pipelines

into

programs

ofwork

that

might

attract

private

investors.A

good

example

is

the

recent

US$1.1

billion

SDG

Loan

Funddeveloped

by

AllianzGI

and

Dutch

Development

Bank

FMO.Fund

benefits

from

multiple

layers

of

risk

protection

includinga

$111million

first-loss

investment

from

FMO,

which

is

credit-enhanced

with

a

$25

million

unfunded

philanthropic

guaranteeprovided

by

the

John

D.

and

Catherine

T.

MacArthur

Foundation(MacArthur

Foundation).

MacArthur

Foundation’s

triple

A

ratedguarantee

enabled

FMO’s

first

loss

investment

by

resolving

keyrisk

and

technical

factors.9TheMDB

funding

can

only

go

so

far

and,

at

best,

can

act

as

acatalyst

for

mobilizing

more

capital.

And

many

of

the

MDBs

arelimited

in

how

much

they

can

spend.

Their

capital

increasesare

dictated

by

shareholder

countries

who

are

also

strugglingto

meet

their

own

domestic

budget

shortfalls.

Despite

theircritical

role

in

closing

infrastructure

gaps

in

emerging

markets,

itis

unlikely

that

more

capital

will

flow

from

shareholders

into

theMDBs

any

time

soon.Over

the

coming

year,

many

MDBs

and

other

multi

laterals

areexpected

to

place

a

greater

focus

on

crowding

in

philanthropiccapital

as

a

way

to

better

drive

private

capital

flows.

Should

theybe

successful,

a

greater

volume

of

projects

should

start

to

cometo

market

—

particularly

in

the

emerging

markets.Can

philanthropic

capital

fill

the

gap?

According

to

KPMGprofessionals

analysis,

the

quantum

of

philanthropic

capital

being789GOV.UK,

Press

Release,

PM

redirects

HS2

funding

to

revolutionise

transport

across

the

North

and

Midlands,

October

2023KPMG

in

Singapore,

Navigating

the

post-COP28

landscape

for

global

decarbonisation,

2023The

SDG

Loan

Fund,

Blended

Finance

Fact

Sheet,

Convergence

Blended

Capital,

202211

|

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trends

in

infrastructure©2024

Copyright

owned

by

one

or

more

of

the

KPMG

International

entities.

KPMG

International

entities

provide

no

services

to

clients.

All

rights

reserved.TrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrend123456789

10Trend

4:Towards

the‘infrastructuremesh

’12

|

Emerging

trends

in

infrastructure©2024

Copyright

owned

by

one

or

more

of

the

KPMG

International

entities.

KPMG

International

entities

provide

no

services

to

clients.

All

rights

reserved.TrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrendTrend123456789

10Towards

the

‘infrastructure

mesh’The

magnetism

of

city

centers

is

diffusing.

Many

city

leadersinfrastructure

assets

and

services

that

will

remain

solely

withinincreasingly

recognize

that

storing

all

of

a

city’s

value

in

the

center

the

government’s

remit

—

either

due

to

cost

or

complexity.is

creating

an

imbalance

in

access

and

opportunity.

It

also

seemsclear

that

citizens

are

looking

for

a

new

version

of

the

’15-minutecity’

where

everything

is

within

reach

…

notwithstanding

theoccasional

commute

into

an

office

somewhere.Governments

will

also

need

to

ensure

that

the

connectivityinfrastructure

is

available,

sustainable

and

effective

enoughto

allow

meshes

to

form

(upgrading

the

electricity

generationnetwork

to

accommodate

decentralized

renewables,

forexample11).At

the

same

time,

there

is

a

continued

shift

towards

infrastructuredecentralization.

Mini-grids

and

solar

panels

are

popping

upto

take

the

pressure

off

large

base-load

generation

facilities.10Mobility

as

a

Service

providers

are

extending

the

reach

of

masstransit

and

bridging

the

final

mile.

Digital

healthcare

is

movingservices

into

homes

and

out

of

hospitals.Regulators

will

need

to

update

and

adapt

their

capabilities

inorder

to

address

the

range

of

technology

and

business

modelchallenges

they

now

face.