中国必需消费行业消费品成本指数跟踪：棕榈油升势强劲蔬菜价格继续回落

研究报告ResearchReport13Mar2024中国必需消费ChinaStaples消费品成本指数跟踪：棕榈油升势强劲，蔬菜价格继续回落HTICGCI:Palmoilpricerosesignificantly,whilevegetablepricescontinuedtofall观点聚焦InvestmentFocus股票名称百威亚太华润啤酒海底捞康师傅中国飞鹤颐海国际九毛九达势股份现代牧业优然牧业澳优评级 目标价Neutral 14.00Outperform66.00Outperform30.90Outperform13.09Outperform6.40Outperform21.69Outperform21.68Outperform75.50Outperform1.33Outperform2.85Outperform3.002023E2620191581515n.a.10n.a.252024E2117161261391655413StaplesChina806040Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24资料来源：Factset,HTIRelatedReports消费品成本指数跟踪：生鲜乳价格再度探底，白糖年涨幅有所收窄（HTICGCI:Thepriceoffreshmilkhitanewlow,whiletheannualincreaseinsugarpricesnarrowed）(28Feb2024)HTI消费品成本指数：节后现货成本小幅波动，期货成本跌幅明显（CGCI:TheSpotCostFluctuatedSlightly,WhiletheFuturesCostDecreasedSignificantly）(212024)HTI消费品成本指数：期货成本指数同比均转负（HTICGCI:Thefuturescostindexhasturnednegativeyear-on-year）(17Jan2024)本周HTI跟踪的六类消费品，现货成本小幅波动，期货成本涨幅明显，其中软饮料、方便面领涨1.37%/1.05%。本周包材现货端，塑料较上周略涨0.41%，其余包材价格基本持平。期货端，玻璃价格快速下行2.44%，纸浆、铝材、塑料分别上涨3.62%/0.63%/0.34%。直接原材料方面，棕榈油涨幅领先，现货、期货价格分别上涨2.57%/4.22%，较今年年初分别上涨12.01%/10.81%。白糖价格本周也有反弹，现货、期货端上涨0.63%/2.61%。大豆期货快速走高，较上周上涨3.01%，现货端基本持平。蔬菜、豆粕、小麦和生鲜乳现货价格本周分别下降2.22%/0.78%/0.63%/0.56%。小麦期货较上周/今年年初分别下降0.72%/12.88%。能源方面，本周柴油现货较上周持平，月度环比跌0.66%0.21%，月度环0.26%。啤酒：313日，成本现货指数较上周持平，期货指数较上周下降0.7。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动0.4%/7.81%2.5%/3.33%。进口加麦价格维持稳中微降态势，较年初下降元/吨。玻璃期货震荡下行，主因节后市场需求疲软，累库压力渐增。调味品：成本现货指数较上周提升，期货指数较上周提升0.71%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动1.04%/3.64%，较去年同期现货、期货指数分别累计变动0.06%/5.21%。白糖价格小幅上涨，国内白糖库存偏低，需求端销量有所转好，同时巴西新产季开榨前降雨偏少和印度限制食糖出口刺激了减产预期。期货端涨幅明显，主因大豆期货触及3年来的低点后止跌回升。乳制品：成本现货指数较上周下降，期货指数较上周提升0.75%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动较去年同期现货、期货指数分别累计变动4.63%/4.33%。生鲜乳价格仍在下行，期货端纸浆涨幅明显，主要是受红海航线扰动影响，国内纸浆供给或将减少，同时下游备货需求预计改善。方便面：成本现货指数较上周提升0.3%，期货指数较上周提升1.05%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动0.75%/0.37%，较去年同期现货、期货指数分别累计变动4.16%/6.47%。棕榈油价格持续走强带动了本周方便面成本的上涨，纸浆亦有一定贡献。速冻食品：成本现货指数较上周下降0.15%，期货指数较上周下降0.14%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动0.31%/0.66%，较去年同期现货、期货指数分别累计变动1.53%/2.57%。蔬菜价格仍处于周期性下跌阶段，小麦的下跌对成本下行亦有贡献。软饮料：成本现货指数较上周提升0.21%，期货指数较上周提升1.37%。今年年初以来现货、期货指数分别累计变动0.24%/2.24%，较去年同期现货、期货指数分别累计变动2.17%/4.74%。软饮料期货成本涨幅明显，主要是受纸浆、白糖和塑料期货上涨的推升。风险提示：原材料价格反弹，地缘冲突加剧，国内疫情反复。闻宏伟陈子叶Chenhongwei.wen@ susie.zy.chen@本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证translationthe月度来看，较上月同期调味品成本现货指数下降0.1%，调味品成本期货指数下降2.8%。中长期看，今年年初以来调味品成本现货指数下降1.04%，调味品成本期货指数下降3.64%，较去年同期，调味品成本现货指数下降0.06%，调味品成本期货指数下降5.21%。图5本周HTI调味品成本现货指数提升0.16%图6本周HTI调味品成本期货指数提升0.71%HTI调味品成本指数（现货）13513012512011511022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01HTI调味品成本指数（期货）17016015014013012011022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01资料来源：Wind，HTI资料来源：Wind，HTI图7大豆期货收盘价（元/吨）图8白砂糖期货收盘价（元/吨）7,000.06,500.06,000.05,500.05,000.04,500.04,000.022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-017,500.07,000.06,500.06,000.05,500.05,000.022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01资料来源：Wind，HTI资料来源：Wind，HTI乳制品312109.14期货指数为98.85，较上周提升0.75%。生鲜乳价格持续下跌，较去年同期累计跌幅11.2%。期货端，纸浆和白糖价格上涨较为显著。受红海航线扰动影响，市场预计国内纸浆供给或将减少，同时下游刚需备货，纸企积极促涨，需求端略有支撑，本周纸浆期货价格上涨3.62%。月度来看，较上月同期乳制品成本现货指数下降1.11%，乳制品成本期货指数提升0.27%。中长期看，今年年初以来乳制品成本现货指数下降0.91%，乳制品成本期货指数下降0.1%，较去年同期，乳制品成本现货指数下降4.63%，乳制品成本期货指数下降4.33%。图9本周HTI乳制品成本现货指数下降0.14%图10本周HTI乳制品成本期货指数提升0.75%HTI乳制品成本指数（现货）13012512011511010522-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01HTI乳制品成本指数（期货）12011511010510095.090.022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01资料来源：Wind，HTI资料来源：Wind，HTI图11全国玉米平均价（元/公斤）图12全国豆粕平均价（元/公斤）2.62.522-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-02.822-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01资料来源：Wind，HTI资料来源：Wind，HTI方便面312108.09112.611.05%。棕榈油价格持续走强带动了近期方便面成本的上涨。一季度棕榈油整体仍处于减产季，4月份起产量将进入季节性增长，但由于干旱现象和马来树龄老化问题，今年产量增速预计将有所放缓。国内棕榈油库存已降至近5个月低点，且伴随天气逐步转暖，下游补库需求释放，国内棕榈油库存或进一步下降。月度来看，较上月同期方便面成本现货指数提升1.58%，方便面成本期货指数提升0.86%。中长期看，今年年初以来方便面成本现货指数提升0.75%，方便面成本期货指数提升0.37%，较去年同期，方便面成本现货指数下降4.16%，方便面成本期货指数下降6.47%。图13本周HTI方便面成本现货指数提升0.3%图14本周HTI方便面成本期货指数提升1.05%HTI方便面成本指数（现货）15014013012011010090.022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01HTI方便面成本指数（期货）18017016015014013012011010090.080.022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01资料来源：Wind，HTI资料来源：Wind，HTI图15棕榈油期货收盘价（元/吨）图16小麦期货价（元/吨）140001300012000110001000090008000700060005000400022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-011,500.01,200.090060030022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01资料来源：Wind，HTI资料来源：Wind，HTI速冻食品312124.02成本期货指数为122.290.14%。蔬菜价格处于季节性下跌阶段，较上月同期跌16%。小麦价格走势偏弱，各级储备小麦密集投放，补充市场粮源供给，使得供应水平仍较宽松，而面粉消费需求清淡，制粉企业开机率呈稳中下降趋势，供需基本面未见显著改善。月度来看，较上月同期速冻食品成本现货指数下降0.89%，速冻食品成本期货指数下降2.06%。中长期看，今年年初以来速冻食品成本现货指数提升0.31%，速冻食品成本期货指数下降0.66%，较去年同期，速冻食品成本现货指数下降1.53%，速冻食品成本期货指数下降2.57%。图17本周HTI速冻食品成本现货指数下降0.15%图18本周HTI速冻食品成本期货指数下降0.14%HTI速冻食品成本指数（现货）13313112912712512312111911711522-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01HTI速冻食品成本指数（期货）15014514013513012512011522-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01资料来源：Wind，HTI资料来源：Wind，HTI图19白条鸡价格（元/公斤）图20平均批发价:28种重点监测蔬菜20.019.519.018.518.017.517.016.516.022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-017.06.56.05.55.04.54.03.53.022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01资料来源：Wind，HTI资料来源：Wind，HTI软饮料312119.04期货指数为133.06，较上周提升1.37%。本周纸浆、白糖、塑料期货价格分别上涨3.62%/2.61%/0.34%，带动软饮料期货成本小幅上行。月度来看，较上月同期软饮料成本现货指数提升0.14%，软饮料成本期货指数提升2.01%。中长期看，今年年初以来软饮料成本现货指数下降0.24%，软饮料成本期货指数提升2.24%，较去年同期，软饮料成本现货指数下降2.17%，软饮料成本期货指数下降4.74%。图21本周HTI软饮料成本现货指数提升0.21%图22本周HTI软饮料成本期货指数提升1.37%HTI软饮料成本指数（现货）15014514013513012512011511010510022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01HTI软饮料成本指数（期货）19017015013011022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01资料来源：Wind，HTI资料来源：Wind，HTI图23瓦楞纸市场价（元/吨）图24PET切片价格（元/吨）5,000.04,500.04,000.03,500.03,000.02,500.022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0110,0009,000.08,000.07,000.06,000.022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-01资料来源：Wind，HTI资料来源：Wind，HTI3. 风险提示原材料价格反弹，地缘冲突加剧，国内疫情反复。中国必需消费APPENDIX1Summarythesixcategoriesofconsumergoodstrackedbythisspotcostsofinstantnoodles,softdrinksandspicesslightly.Inoffuturescosts,softdrinksandinstantnoodlesrosemostsignificantly.Spotpricesofpackagedmaterialswerebasicallyflatthisexceptforplastics,whichroseslightlyby0.41%fromlastforfuturesprices,pulp,aluminumandplasticrose3.62%/0.63%/0.34%respectively,glassfell2.44%fromlastrawmaterials,palmoilandsugarspotandfuturespricesrosemostsignificantly.Palmoilspotandfuturespricesrose2.57%/4.22%,up12.01%/10.81%fromthebeginningofthisyear.Sugarspotandfuturespriceswereup0.63%/2.61%thisSoybeanfuturespricesrebounded,up3.01%fromlastwhilethespotendwasessentiallyflat.Vegetable,soybeanmeal,wheatandrawmilkspotpricesweredown2.22%/0.78%/0.63%/0.56%thisWheatfuturesweredown0.72%/12.88%fromlastweek/beginningoftheyear.Risks:Reboundingrawmaterialprices,intensifiedgeopoliticalconflicts,repeateddomesticepidemics.附录APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification:我，闻宏伟，在此保证（i）（ii）（包括我们的家属）（我已经告知他们）3I,HongweiWen,certifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport;andthatI(includingmembersofmyhousehold)havenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussed.Iandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin3businessdaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.（i）（ii）（包括我们的家属）（我已经告知他们）3I,SusieChen,certifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchand(ii)nopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport;andthatI(includingmembersofmyhousehold)havenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussed.Iandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin3businessdaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益冲突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures/（ERDDisclosure@htiseccom）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@htisec.comiftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,嘉谟证券有限公司－海底捞国际金融私人有限公司R及嘉谟证券有限公司－海底捞控股私人有限公司R目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。香港华润(集团)有限公司上海代表处,嘉谟证券有限公司－海底捞国际金融私人有限公司Rand嘉谟证券有限公司－海底捞控股私人有限公司Rare/wereaclientofHaitongcurrentlyorwithinthepast12months.Theclienthasbeenprovidedfornon-investment-bankingsecurities-relatedservices.评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：（“HTI）HTI的评级定义。并且HTI基于各自情况（）分析师股票评级优于大市12-1810%下中性，未来12-18FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市12-1810%TOPIX,KOSPI,TAIEX,Nifty100,美–SP500;其他所有中国概念股MSCIChina.RatingsDefinitions(from1Jul2020):HaitongInternationalusesarelativeratingsystemusingOutperform,Neutral,orUnderperformforrecommendingthestockswecovertoinvestors.Investorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsused

评级分布RatingDistributioninHaitongInternationalResearch.Inaddition,sinceHaitongInternationalResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadHaitongInternationalResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.AnalystStockRatingsOutperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Neutral:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.Underperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–Taiwan–TAIEX,–Nifty100,US–SP500;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.截至20231231日海通国际股票研究评级分布优于大市中性弱于大市(持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.4%9.6%1.0%投资银行客户* 3.9%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。5.1%5.6%上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年6月30日）：买入，未来1218个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%中性，未来1218FINRA/NYSE卖出，未来1218个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%各地股票基准指数：日本–TOPIX,韩国–KOSPI,台湾–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股–MSCIChina.HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,asofDecember31,2023Outperform Neutral Underperform(hold)HTIEquityResearchCoverage 89.4% 9.6% 1.0%IBclients* 3.9% 5.1% 5.6%*Percentageofinvestmentbankingclientsineachratingcategory.BUY,Neutral,andSELLintheabovedistributioncorrespondtoourcurrentratingsofOutperform,Neutral,andUnderperform.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.PleasenotethatstockswithanNRdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.Previousratingsystemdefinitions(until30Jun2020):BUY:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.NEUTRAL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.SELL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–KOSPI,Taiwan–TAIEX,India–Nifty100;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.海通国际非评级研究：HaitongInternationalNon-RatedResearch:HaitongInternationalpublishesquantitati,screeningorshortreportswhichmayrankstocksaccordingtovaluationandothermetricsormaysuggestpricesbasedonpossiblevaluationmultiples.Suchrankingsorsuggestedpricesdonotpurporttobestockratingsortargetpricesorfundamentalvaluesandareforinformationonly.海通国际A股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A（600837CH）AA股评级可能有所不同。HaitongInternationalCoverageofA-Shares:HaitongInternationalmaycoverandrateA-SharesthataresubjecttotheHongKongStockConnectschemewithShanghaiandShenzhen.HaitongSecurities(HS;600837CH),theultimateparentcompanyofHTISGbasedinShanghai,coversandpublishesresearchonthesesameA-SharesfordistributioninmainlandChina.However,theratingsystememployedbyHSdiffersfromthatusedbyHTIandasaresulttheremaybeadifferenceintheHTIandHSratingsforthesameA-sharestocks.海通国际优质100A股（Q100）指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对海通证券A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。HaitongInternationalQuality100A-share(Q100)Index:HTI’sQ100Indexisaquantproductthatconsistsof100ofthehighest-qualityA-sharesundercoverageatHSinShanghai.Thesestocksarecarefullyselectedthroughaquality-basedscreeningprocessincombinationwithareviewoftheHSA-shareteam’sbottom-upresearch.TheQ100constituentcompaniesarereviewedquarterly.盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据通免责声明条款：在使用盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据之前，请务必仔细阅读本条款并同意本声明：第一条义利（FINESG）（以下简称“本公司”）（）绩表现不作为日后回报的预测。（（））SusallWaveFIN-ESGDataServiceDisclaimer:PleasereadthesetermsandconditionsbelowcarefullyandconfirmyouragreementandacceptancewiththesetermsbeforeusingSusallWaveFIN-ESGDataService.FIN-ESGDataisproducedbySusallWaveDigitalTechnologyCo.,Ltd.(Inshort,SusallWave)’sassessmentbasedonlegalpubliclyaccessibleinformation.SusallWaveshallnotberesponsibleforanyaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformation.Theassessmentresultisforreferenceonly.Itisnotforanyinvestmentadviceforanyindividualorinstitutionandnotforbasisofpurchasing,sellingorholdinganyrelativefinancialproducts.WewillnotbeliableforanydirectorindirectlossofanyindividualorinstitutionasaresultofusingSusallWaFIN-ESGData.SusallWadonotconsiderrecipientsascustomersforreceivingthesedata.Whenusingthedata,recipientsshallmakeyourownindependentjudgmentaccordingtoyourpracticalindividualstatus.Thecontentsofthedatareflectthejudgmentofusonlyonthereleaseday.Wehaverighttoupdateandamendthedataandreleaseotherdatathatcontainsinconsistentcontentsordifferentconclusionswithoutnotification.Unlessexpresslystated,thedata(e.g.,financialperformancedata)representspastperformanceonlyandthepastperformancecannotbeviewedasthepredictionoffuturereturn.ThecopyrightofthisdatabelongstoSusallWa,andreserveallrightsinaccordancewiththelaw.Withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofourcompany,noneofindividualorinstitutioncanusethesedataforanyprofitablepurpose.Besides,noneofindividualorinstitutioncantakeactionssuchasamendment,replication,translation,compilation,re-editing,adaption,deletion,abbreviation,excerpts,issuance,rent,exhibition,performance,projection,broadcast,informationnetworktransmission,shooting,addingiconsandinstructions.IfanylossofSusallWaoranythird-partyiscausedbythoseactions,usersshallbearthecorrespondingcompensationliability.SusallWaveshallnotberesponsibleforanyloss.Ifanytermisnotcontainedinthisdisclaimerbutwritteninotheragreementsonourwebsite(e.g.UserRegistrationProtocolofSusallWaWebsite,UserService(includingauthentication)AgreementofSusallWaveWebsite,PrivacyPolicyofSusallwaveWebsite),itshouldbeexecutedaccordingtootheragreements.Ifthereisanydifferencebetweenthisdisclaimandotheragreements,thisdisclaimershallbeapplied.重要免责声明：非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）（571章）4（）HTISGLHaitongInternational(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK）HTIJKK管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告：SecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia（“SEBI”）HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited（“HTSIPL）BSELimited（“BSE”）NationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimited（“NSE）（）HTSIPL20161222日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG）所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。HTIRL、HTISCL（“HTISG）/HTISG任。HTISGHTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISGHTISG一致的投资决策。但HTIRL请访问海通国际网站www.equities.htisec.com，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究首页上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。IMPORTANTDISCLAIMERForresearchreportsonnon-Indiansecurities:TheresearchreportisissuedbyHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),awhollyownedsubsidiaryofHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupLimited(“HTISGL”)andalicensedcorporationtocarryonType4regulatedactivity(advisingonsecurities)forthepurposeoftheSecuritiesandFuturesOrdinance(Cap.571)ofHongKong,withtheassistanceofHaitongInternational(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),awhollyownedsubsidiaryofHTISGLandwhichisregulatedasanInvestmentAdviserbytheKantoFinanceBureauofJapan.ForresearchreportsonIndiansecurities:TheresearchreportisissuedbyHaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),anIndiancompanyandaSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(“SEBI”)registeredStockBroker,MerchantBankerandResearchAnalystthat,interalia,producesanddistributesresearchreportscoveringlistedentitiesontheBSELimited(“BSE”)andtheNationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimited(“NSE”)(collectivelyreferredtoas“IndianExchanges”).HSIPLwasacquiredandbecamepartoftheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”)on22December2016.AlltheresearchreportsaregloballybrandedunderthenameHaitongInternationalandapprovedfordistributionbyHaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”)and/oranyothermemberswithinHTISGintheirrespectivejurisdictions.Theinformationandopinionscontainedinthisresearchreporthavebeencompiledorarrivedatfromsourcesbelievedtobereliableandingoodfaithbutnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadebyHTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKKoranyothermemberswithinHTISGfromwhichthisresearchreportmaybereceived,astotheiraccuracy,completenessorcorrectness.Allopinionsexpressedhereinareasofthedateofthisresearchreportandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisresearchreportisforinformationpurposeonly.Descriptionsofanycompaniesortheirsecuritiesmentionedhereinarenotintendedtobecompleteandthisresearchreportisnot,andshouldnotbeconstruedexpresslyorimpliedlyas,anoffertobuyorsellsecurities.Thesecuritiesreferredtointhisresearchreportmaynotbeeligibleforpurchaseorsaleinsomejurisdictions.Ifaninvestmentproductisdenominatedinacurrencyotherthananinvestor'shomecurrency,achangeinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffecttheinvestment.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyindicativeoffutureresults.Certaintransactions,includingthoseinvolvingderivatives,giverisetosubstantialriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Youshouldalsobearinmindthatrecommendationsinthisresearchreportarenottailor-madeforyou.Theanalysthasnottakenintoaccountyouruniquefinancialcircumstances,suchasyourfinancialsituationandriskappetite.Youmust,therefore,analyzeandshould,whereapplicable,consultyourownlegal,tax,accounting,financialandotherprofessionaladviserstoevaluatewhethertherecommendationssuitsyoubeforeinvestment.NeitherHTISGnoranyofitsdirectors,employeesoragentsacceptsanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanydirectorconsequentiallossarisingfromanyuseofthematerialscontainedinthisresearchreport.HTISGandouraffiliates,officers,directors,andemployees,excludingtheanalystsresponsibleforthecontentofthisdocument,willfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearchreport.Sales,traders,andotherprofessionalsofHTISGmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestotherelevantclientsandthecompanieswithinHTISGthatreflectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearchreport.HTISGmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.HTIisundernoobligationtoensurethatsuchothertradingdecisions,ideasorrecommendationsarebroughttotheattentionofanyrecipientofthisresearchreport.PleaserefertoHTI’swebsiteforfurtherinformationonHTI’sorganizationalandadministrativearrangementssetupforthepreventionandavoidanceofconflictsofinterestwithrespecttoResearch.NonU.S.AnalystDisclosure:TheHTIanalyst(s)listedonthecoverofthisResearchis(are)notregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwithFINRAandarenotsubjecttoU.S.FINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithcompaniesthatarethesubjectoftheResearch;publicappearances;andtradingsecuritiesbyaresearchanalyst.分发和地区通知：除非下文另有规定，否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人员。香港投资者的通知事项：海通国际证券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)负责分发该研究报告，HTISCL是在香港有权实施第1类受规管活动（从事证券交易）的持牌公司。该研究报告并不构成《证券及期货条例》（香港法例第571章）（以下简称“SFO”）所界定的要约邀请，证券要约或公众要约。本研究报告仅提供给SFO所界定的“专业投资者”。本研究报告未经过证券及期货事务监察委员会的审查。您不应仅根据本研究报告中所载的信息做出投资决定。本研究报告的收件人就研究报告中产生或与之相关的任何事宜请联系HTISCL销售人员。美国投资者的通知事项：HTIRLHSIPLHTIJKK编写。HTIRLHSIPLHTIJKKHTISG1934年“美国证券交易法”15a6（“MajorU.S.InstitutionalInvestor）资者」（”US.InstitutionalInvestors）HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.（“HTIUSA”）HTIUSA。HTIUSA340MadisonAvenue,12thFloor,NewYork,NY10173，电话（212）351-6050。HTIUSA是在美国于US.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission（“SEC”）FinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthority,Inc.（“FINRA”）HTIUSAHSIPLHTIRL或HTIJKKHSIPLHTIRLHTIJKKFINRAFINRA2241（包括ADR）HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.340MadisonAvenue,12thFloorNewYork,NY10173联系人电话：(212)3516050DISTRIBUTIONANDREGIONALNOTICESExceptasotherwiseindicatedbelow,anyRecipientwishingtodiscussthisresearchreportoreffectanytransactioninanysecuritydiscussedinHTI’sresearchshouldcontacttheHaitongInternationalsalespersonintheirowncountryorregion.NoticetoHongKonginvestors:TheresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),whichisalicensedcorporationtocarryonType1regulatedactivity(dealinginsecurities)inHongKong.ThisresearchreportdoesnotconstituteasolicitationoranofferofsecuritiesoraninvitationtothepublicwithinthemeaningoftheSFO.Thisresearchreportisonlytobecirculatedto"ProfessionalInvestors"asdefinedintheSFO.ThisresearchreporthasnotbeenreviewedbytheSecuritiesandFuturesCommission.Youshouldnotmakeinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthebasisoftheinformationcontainedinthisresearchreport.RecipientsofthisresearchreportaretocontactHTISCLsalespersonsinrespectofanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,theresearchreport.NoticetoU.S.investors:Asdescribedabove,thisresearchreportwaspreparedbyHTIRL,HSIPLorHTIJKK.NeitherHTIRL,HSIPL,HTIJKK,noranyofthenonU.S.HTISGaffiliatesisregisteredintheUnitedStatesand,therefore,isnotsubjecttoU.S.rulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalysts.Thisresearchreportisprovidedfordistributionto“majorU.S.institutionalinvestors”and“U.S.institutionalinvestors”inrelianceontheexemptionfromregistrationprovidedbyRule15a-6oftheU.S.SecuritiesExchangeActof1934,asamended.Whendistributingresearchreportsto“U.S.institutionalinvestors,”HTIUSAwillaccepttheresponsibilitiesforthecontentofthereports.AnyU.S.recipientofthisresearchreportw