教育战略咨询入门-市场容量估算业务

[教育]战略咨询入门—市场容量估算业务Beforeclass

OurobjectiveandmethodologyObjective:UnderstandwhatGuesstimationisHowtogettheanswerHowtopresenttheanswerBeamasterOurmethod:ConversationQuestionleadWedoittogetherIntroduction

WhatisGuesstimation?GuesstimationismorethanmarketsizingGuesstimationistogetageneralquantitativeideaofatargetwithcommonsenseRealworkMarketsizingtodrivebusinessdecisions5_85Introduction

Howtogettheanswerinrealwork?Highestlevel:checkthevalue-chain

Rawmaterialsuppliers-Manufacturers-Distributors/Retailers-EndCustomersInrealworkwithoutdataColdcallorin-depthinterviewsLitresearchIntroduction

WhatistheroleofGuesstimationincaseinterview?BackoftheenvelopequestionNodata,nointernet,noquestions

Willbegivenas:AsinglecaseorpartofacaseBrainteaserquestionsIntroduction

WhydoGuesstimationinthecaseinterview?Totest:CommonsenseBusinesssenseAnalyticalcapabilityCalculationCommunicationtodescribeandsummarizeComfortinrealworkHowtogettheanswer

ThemethodologyHaveatry

HowmanypassengersisPudongairporthandlingeachday?Howtogettheanswer

ThemethodologyClarifythequestionLanding/departingDomestic/internationalLayingoutthestructure#ofpassengers=#ofplaneslandingperdayx#ofpassengersperplaneDeepdiveoneachelement#ofplaneslandingperday=#ofrunwaysx#ofplaneslandingoneachrunwayperday#ofplaneslandingoneachrunwayperday=#ofhoursairportoperatesforlandingperday/timetakenforaplanetolandProbeforinfo/hintsorcomeupwithassumptionsusingcommonsensezerodefectcalculationSanitycheckReviewassumptionsforsensitivitycheckHowmanypassengersisPudongairporthandlingeachday?Howtogettheanswer

Tips1.Askfor30secondsto1minuteupfronttogatheryourthoughts2.Roundyouranswerstocalculation-friendlynumbers3.Whenmakingassumptions,usecalculation-friendlynumbers/percentages(e.g.agegroups0-20etc.)4.Clearlylabelunits5.Avoidnumericalrangesastheycomplicatethesolution6.Usea“snifftest”or“sanity-check”thevalidityofeachcalculation7.It’soktocommunicatedoubtsandmistakeswiththeinterviewer8.Interpretinterviewerbodylanguage9.Communicateeachstepclearlyandconcisely,andyourthinkingprocess10.Don’tovercomplicatethesolution–simpleissuper11.TrytooffermultipleappraochesHowtogettheanswer

CaseingroupOnaverage,howmuchdoeseachcigarettesmokedbyaheavysmokershortenhisorherlifeexpectancy?Howtogettheanswer

CaseingroupHowmanylitersofhousepaintaresoldintheUKannually?Howtogettheanswer

CaseingroupHowmanygasstationsarethereinShanghai?Howtogettheanswer

Isthereanypatterninsuchquestions?Topdown/bottomupCommonsegmentationdimensionsAge,gender,income,season,penetration,utilizationYoucanalwaysfurtherbreakdownbythinkingaboutProcess,valuechain,highlycorrelatedvariables…Howtopresenttheanswer

FacetofacecaseEstimatethedailyrevenueofaStarbucksinXintiandi?Howtopresenttheanswer

FacetofacecaseHowmanyroundsofgolfareplayedannuallyintheU.S.?Howtopresenttheanswer

FacetofacecaseHowmanybottlesofcokesaresoldinChinaannually?Howtopresenttheanswer

FacetofacecaseAges#ofpeople(million)penetrationratebottlespermonth#ofmonthsbottlesperyear(m)0-5750%01206-107540%21272011-2015050%3122700