国际货币基金组织（IMF）：赤道几内亚：2023年第四条磋商报告

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

IMFCountryReportNo.24/25

REPUBLICOFEQUATORIALGUINEA

February2024

2023ARTICLEIVCONSULTATION—PRESSRELEASE;STAFFREPORT;ANDSTATEMENTBYTHEEXECUTIVEDIRECTORFORREPUBLICOFEQUATORIALGUINEA

UnderArticleIVoftheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2023ArticleIVconsultationwithRepublicofEquatorialGuineathefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandare

includedinthispackage:

·APressReleasesummarizingtheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardasexpressedduringitsJanuary12,2024,considerationofthestaffreportthatconcludedtheArticleIV

consultationwithRepublicofEquatorialGuinea.

TheStaffReportpreparedbyastaffteamoftheIMFfortheExecutiveBoard'sconsiderationonJanuary12,2024,followingdiscussionsthatendedon

November17,2023,withtheofficialsofRepublicofEquatorialGuineaoneconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Basedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthese

discussions,thestaffreportwascompletedonDecember21,2023.

·AnInformationalAnnexpreparedbytheIMFstaff.

·AStatementbytheExecutiveDirectorforRepublicofEquatorialGuinea.

TheIMF'stransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandprematuredisclosureoftheauthorities'policyintentionsinpublishedstaffreportsandotherdocuments.

Copiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfrom

InternationalMonetaryFund·PublicationServicesPOBox92780·Washington,D.C.20090

Telephone:(202)623-7430·Fax:(202)623-7201

E-mail:publications@Web:

InternationalMonetaryFund

Washington,D.C.

◎2024InternationalMonetaryFund

PRESSRELEASE

PR24/10

IMFExecutiveBoardConcludes2023ArticleIVConsultationwithEquatorialGuinea

FORIMMEDIATERELEASE

Washington,DC-January12,2024:TheExecutiveBoardoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)concludedtodaythe2023ArticleIVconsultation'withEquatorialGuinea.

EquatorialGuinea'seconomyremainsconfrontedwithacontinuousdeclineinoil

production.Afterthe2022respite,theeconomyisexpectedtofallbackintoadeep

recession,withanestimated8.8percentfallineconomicactivityin2023.Inflationis

expectedtohavemoderatedto2.5percentfrom4.9percentin2022,whilethecurrent

accountsurpluswouldhavefallento1percentofGDPfrom2.4percentin2022.Theoverallfiscalsurplusisestimatedtohavedroppedto0.3percentofGDPfrom13.6percentin2022,whilethenon-hydrocarbonprimaryfiscaldeficitisexpectedat23.3percentofnon-

hydrocarbonGDP,upfrom22.7percentofnon-hydrocarbonGDPin2022.

Nearandmedium-termgrowthprospectsappearchallengingwiththeprojectedreductioninoilproductionandlacklustergrowthinthenon-oileconomyduetounderlying

structuralweaknesses.RealGDPgrowthisprojectedtocontractby5.5percentin2024,

andtheeconomywouldremainonaverageinrecessionoverthemediumterm.Thecurrentaccountbalancesurpluswouldturnintodeficit,averaging-7.6percentofGDPover2024-28.However,basedontheauthorities'announcedplans,thefiscalsurplusisprojectedto

increaseto2.9percentofGDPandthenon-hydrocarbonprimarydeficittoimproveto

19.5percentofnon-hydrocarbonGDPin2024.

Thisoutlookissubjecttouncertainty,andrisksremaintitledtothedownside.Theseincludefaster-than-projecteddepletionofoilreserves,waningdemandforhydrocarbonsamid

accelerationofglobaltransitiontonetzeroanddelaysinimplementingkeypolicyreforms.

ExecutiveBoardAssessment2

ExecutiveDirectorsagreedwiththethrustofthestaffappraisal.TheynotedthatEquatorialGuinea'seconomyexpandedin2022afteralongperiodofrecession.However,the

1UnderArticleIVoftheIMFsArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Astaffteamvisitsthecountry,collectseconomicandfinancialinformation,anddiscusseswithofficialsthe

country'seconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Onreturntoheadquarters,thestaffpreparesareport,whichformsthebasisfordiscussionbytheExecutiveBoard.

2AttheconclusionofthediscussiontheactingChairmanoftheBoardsummarizestheviewsofExecutiveDirectors,andthissummaryistransmittedtothecountry'sauthorities.AnexplanationofanyqualifiersusedinSummingsUpcanbefoundherehtto//wwwIMEora/extemal/np/sec/misclqualifiershtm

2

recoverywasshort-lived,andthemedium-termoutlookfacessubstantialrisksstemming

fromtheprojecteddeclineinoilproductionandchallengingbusinessenvironment.Againstthisbackground,Directorsurgedfront-loadedeffortstosupportmacroeconomicand

financialstability,transformativereformstopromoteeconomicdiversification,and

advancementofthegovernanceandanti-corruptionagendatosupportsustainablegrowth.

Toensurefiscalsustainability,Directorswelcomedtheauthorities'agreementtoanchorfiscalpolicyonnonhydrocarbonprimarybalanceandtoconsolidatepublicfinances.

Theycommendedtheauthoritiesforapprovinga2024budgetthattargetsasubstantialfiscaladjustment,whileboostinginvestmentinhealthandeducation.

Directorsemphasizedtheimportanceofaddressingrisksandvulnerabilitiesinthebankingsectortosafeguardfinancialstability.Theyencouragedtheauthoritiestocompletetheir

ongoingeffortstorestructureandrecapitalizethetroubledpartofthebankingsectorandtoaddressthehighlevelofnon-performingloans.Theseeffortsshouldbecoupledwith

actionstorecoverassetstolimitthebudgetarycost.Whilewelcomingprogressmadesofartosettledomesticarrears,Directorscalledforacomprehensiveandtransparentplan.

Directorscalledforboldstructuralreformstofostereconomicdiversificationandsupportinclusive,sustainablegrowth.Reformprioritiesincludereducingtheregulatoryburdenforbusinesscreation,boostinginvestmentinhumancapital,andensuringthewell-functioningandefficiencyofmarkets.

Directorsunderscoredtheurgentneedforstrongimplementationofthegovernanceand

anti-corruptionreformsagenda.Thefundingoftheanti-corruptioncommission,

asteppingstoneforaneffectiveimplementationoftheassetdeclarationregime,

andtheadoptionoftheanti-corruptionlawarewelcomesteps,andeffortstofullyimplementthesereformsareencouraged.Directorsalsostressedtheimportanceof

improvingtransparencyinthehydrocarbonsector,strengtheningtheeffectivenessoftheAML/CFTframework,andaddressingtheconstraintsineconomicdatagenerationand

provision.

Notingtheauthorities’interestinafinancingarrangementwiththeFund,Directors

generallyunderlinedtheimportanceofbuildingatrackrecordonreformsalongside

continuingtostrengthencapacity,includingthroughFundtechnicalassistance,tosupporttheirefforts.

3

EquatorialGuinea:SelectedEconomicandFinancialIndicators,2019–28

Estimates

Projections

2019202020212022202320242025202620272028

(PercentofGDP,unlessotherwisespecified)

Production,Prices,andMoney

RealGDP

-5.5-4.8-0.43.2-8.8-5.53.7-4.1-0.2-0.8

HydrocarbonGDP1

-8.8-3.5-7.31.1-21.0-16.94.7-16.5-7.3-10.5

Non-hydrocarbonGDP

-1.4-6.37.75.43.03.03.13.43.23.5

GDPdeflator

-3.2-10.219.94.5-10.110.31.25.13.44.1

Hydrocarbonsector

-11.7-28.057.89.7-37.44.8-1.2-4.5-2.9-1.9

Oilandgasprimaryproduction

-4.0-32.358.562.3-19.0-3.4-5.3-4.2-3.3-2.4

Consumerprices(annualaverage)

1.24.8-0.14.92.55.01.82.62.22.0

Consumerprices(endofperiod)

4.3-0.62.95.02.26.30.42.22.31.8

MonetaryandExchangeRate

Broadmoney

19.6-7.00.420.7-6.610.14.14.03.23.3

Nominaleffectiveexchangerate(-=depreciation)

-1.52.50.9-4.4………………

Realeffectiveexchangerate(-=depreciation)

-2.26.0-2.2-6.5………………

ExternalSector

Exports,f.o.b.

-8.3-46.633.783.7-45.3-10.01.8-18.3-8.7-11.4

Hydrocarbonexports

-15.7-37.931.787.9-46.5-10.71.7-19.6-9.6-12.7

Non-hydrocarbonexports

63.3-89.994.7-3.10.53.12.93.33.73.8

Imports,f.o.b.

-24.7-27.74.415.1-11.78.34.3-11.89.21.6

Termsoftrade

7.3-24.549.3-18.5-36.25.05.0-8.8-6.5-2.7

GovernmentFinance

Revenue

-14.3-33.927.0117.1-37.89.8-22.7-9.80.40.5

Expenditure

InvestmentandSavings

-20.6-17.7-6.446.69.8-1.76.44.46.15.7

Grossinvestment

10.94.74.813.614.714.315.716.116.216.3

Grossnationalsavings

GovernmentFinance

3.43.99.016.115.710.59.77.96.65.7

Revenue

18.614.415.330.823.424.618.116.215.815.4

Ofwhich:hydrocarbonrevenue

14.810.712.327.919.219.713.110.910.39.8

hydrocarbonrevenue(aspercentageofnon-hydroGDP)

3.83.73.02.94.24.95.05.35.45.6

non-hydrocarbonrevenue

7.65.45.15.15.66.26.36.46.46.4

non-hydrocarbonrevenue(aspercentofnon-hydroGDP)

16.816.212.717.223.021.722.022.823.524.0

Expenditure

1.8-1.82.613.60.32.9-3.9-6.6-7.7-8.7

Overallfiscalbalance(Commitmentbasis)

1.8-1.82.613.60.32.9-3.9-6.6-7.7-8.7

Overallfiscalbalance(Cashbasis)

-0.5-3.21.011.9-2.01.1-5.3-7.7-8.8-9.6

Non-hydrocarbonprimarybalance2

-11.5-11.2-8.6-13.1-17.3-15.3-15.1-15.5-15.9-16.3

Non-hydrocarbonprimarybalance(aspercentofnon-hydrocarbonGDP)

-19.5-16.8-14.6-22.7-23.3-19.5-19.1-18.6-18.6-18.6

Changeindomesticarrears

-2.3-1.5-1.6-1.7-2.3-1.8-1.4-1.1-1.1-1.0

ExternalSector

Currentaccountbalance(includingofficialtransfers;-=deficit)

-7.5-0.84.22.41.0-3.8-6.1-8.1-9.6-10.6

ImputedForeignReserves(net),US$billion

-0.2-0.5-0.31.11.10.80.3-0.5-1.4-2.5

Debt

Totalpublicdebt

43.249.442.134.642.134.033.336.037.438.1

Domesticdebt

29.234.029.924.631.931.932.433.532.932.4

Externaldebt

14.015.412.210.010.22.10.92.54.55.7

Externaldebtservice-to-exportsratio(percent)

4.87.67.84.37.86.16.65.54.75.3

Externaldebtservice/governmentrevenue(percent)

11.915.216.57.611.97.710.88.16.46.4

MemorandumItems

Oilprice(U.S.dollarsabarrel)3

57.743.370.899.082.780.176.573.471.169.4

NominalGDP(billionsofCFAfrancs)

6,6585,6956,8047,3406,0196,2776,5836,6346,8487,074

NominalGDP(millionsofUSdollars)

11,3649,89412,26911,7679,91710,36110,91411,01311,35611,715

HydrocarbonGDP(billionsofCFAfrancs)

2,7541,9142,8013,1071,5351,3371,3831,103993872

Non-hydrocarbonGDP(billionsofCFAfrancs)

3,9053,7814,0034,2334,4844,9395,1995,5315,8556,201

Hydrocarbonvolume(barrels)

11.411.013.221.320.815.410.88.27.06.7

Oilvolume(crude+condensado,millionsofbarrels)

52.652.443.439.528.727.830.425.824.121.3

Gasvolume(LNG+propano+butano+methanol,millionsofbblsoilequivalent)

55.948.755.162.253.233.933.927.525.023.8

TotalHydrocarbonVolume(inmillionsofbarrelsofoilequivalent)

108.6101.298.5101.781.961.764.353.349.145.1

Exchangerate(average;CFAfrancs/U.S.dollar)

585.9623.8605.8602.4

GrossReserveassetsattheBEAC(monthsofnextyears'imports)40.20.30.26.15.43.72.0-0.7-3.8-3.3

Sources:DataprovidedbytheEquatoguineanauthorities;andstaffestimatesandprojections.

1Includingoil,LNG,LPG,butane,propane,andmethanol.

2Excludingoilrevenues,andinterestearnedandpaid.

3ThelocalpriceofcrudeoilistheBrentandincludesaqualitydiscount.

4Referstoimputedreserves.

December21,2023

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

REPUBLICOFEQUATORIAL

GUINEA

STAFFREPORTFORTHE2023ARTICLEIVCONSULTATION

KEYISSUES

Context.EquatorialGuinea'smacroeconomicsituationhasdeterioratedoverthelast

decadeduetoaseculardeclineinoilproduction.In2022,economicindicatorsimprovedsomewhat.However,thisrecoverywasshort-lived,withtheeconomyprojectedtofallbackintorecessionin2023.Intheyearsahead,theeconomywouldcontractfurther.Without

strongpolicyresponses,allthegainsinpercapitaincomeachievedoverthelasttwo

decadesareexpectedtofullyunravelby2028.Thethree-yearExtendedFundFacility(EFF)approvedin2019tosupporttheauthorities'diversificationagendaexpiredatend-2022withoutasinglecompletedreview.Theauthoritieshavenonethelesscontinuedto

implementreformsdelayedundertheprogramaswellasthe2022ArtideIVConsultationrecommendations.

KeyPolicyRecommendations

Fiscalpolicy.Fiscalpolicyshouldbeanchoredonthenonhydrocarbonprimarybalance.Consolidatingpublicfinanceshasbecomemoreurgentthanevertoavoidacostly

sovereignstresseventinthelongrun.Toachievethis,itiscriticaltoboost

nonhydrocarbonrevenuecollectionandreducenon-priorityspendingwhileimprovingsocialoutcomesinhealthcareandeducation.The2024budgetisinlinewithstaffadviceandrepresentsanambitioussteptowardsthiseffort.

Financialsectorpolicy.Restoringthesoundnessofthebankingsectoriskeytofosternonhydrocarbongrowth.Ongoingimplementationofplanstoaddresssolvencyandliquidityissuesinthetroubledpartofthebankingsectoriswelcome.Thefinancial

inclusionstrategyshouldbefinalizedandexecuted.

Structuralpolicies.Fosteringnonhydrocarbongrowthandinclusioniscriticaltolong-termmacroeconomicandsocialstability.Reformprioritiesincludefinalizingand

implementingacomprehensiveplanfortherepaymentofdomesticarrears,reducingtheregulatoryburdenforbusinesscreation,boostinginvestmentinbasichealthcare,

education,andsanitationtosupportdevelopmentofhumancapital,andensuringthewell-functioningandefficiencyofmarkets.Itisalsoimportanttoadvancetheprivatizationof

somepublicassets.

Governanceandanti-corruptionpolicies.Recentstepstooperationalizetheanti-

corruptioncommissionarewelcomewhileeffortstoaddressseriousremaininggovernanceandcorruptionweaknessesandshortcomingsintheAML/CFTframeworkneedtobe

steppedup.

REPUBLICOFEQUATORIALGUINEA

2

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

ApprovedBy

VitaliyKramarenko(AFR)andJarkko

Turunen(SPR)

DiscussionstookplaceinMalabo,fromSeptember26toOctober5,

2023,andNovember15-17,2023.TheteamcomprisedMr.Mesmin

Koulet-Vickot(head),Mses.CarolinaBrozdowski(virtual),JamieFraser

andIvanovaReyes(allAFR),Mr.NicolòBird(FAD),Mr.DavidFlorián

(SPR)andMr.JoãoMarques(MCM).Mr.FrantoRicka(incomingmissionchief)participatedintheNovembermission.Ms.HaiyanShi(resident

representative),Mr.CornelioNzang(localeconomist)andMs.Cristina

Ebako(localofficemanager)assistedthemission.ThemissionmetwithMinisterofFinanceandBudget,FortunatoOfaMboNchama;MinisterofPlanningandEconomicDiversification,GabrielMbagaObiangLima;

MinisterofMinesandHydrocarbons,AntonioOburuOndó;DelegateMinisterofTreasuryandStatePatrimony,MilagrosaObonoAngüe;NationalDirectoroftheBEAC,GenovevaAndemeObiang,andotherseniorgovernmentofficials.Ms.Joseph,andMr.Masterson(allAFR)assistedinthepreparationofthisreport.

CONTENTS

BACKGROUND

4

RECENTDEVELOPMENTSANDREFORMPROGRESS

6

OUTLOOKANDRISKS

8

POLICYDISCUSSIONS

9

A.EnsuringMedium-TermFiscalSustainability

9

B.StrengtheningtheBankingSectorandFinancialInclusion

12

C.FosteringInclusionandNon-HydrocarbonGrowth

12

D.ImprovingGovernanceandFightingCorruption

16

OTHERISSUES

17

STAFFAPPRAISAL

18

BOX

1.OverviewoftheNewTaxLaw

11

FIGURES

1.HydrocarbonandGrowthDevelopments

4

2.ThereisaNeedtoStrengthenMostGovernanceAreas

5

REPUBLICOFEQUATORIALGUINEA

3

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

3.FoodandNon-FoodInflationRate

6

4.Medium-TermOutlook

9

5.CanImproveHealthOutcomesThroughGreaterSpendingAdequacyandbyFocusingon

PriorityAreas

14

TABLES

1.SelectedEconomicandFinancialIndicators,2019–28

20

2a.BalanceofPayments,2019–28(BillionsofCFAfrancs)

21

2b.BalanceofPayments,2019–28(PercentofGDP)

22

3a.SummaryofCentralGovernmentFinancialOperations,2019–28(BillionsofCFAfrancs)

23

3b.SummaryofCentralGovernmentFinancialOperations,2019–28(BillionsofCFAfrancs)

24

4.MonetarySurvey,2019–28

25

5.FiscalFinancingRequirements,2019–28

26

6.EquatorialGuinea:ExternalFinancingRequirements,2020–28

27

7.EquatorialGuineaFinancialSoundnessIndicatorsfortheBankingSector,2015–22

28

ANNEXES

I.ImplementationofPastIMFAdvice(ArticleIV2022)

29

II.Stocktakingofthe2019EFFandthe2021RFI

34

III.RiskAssessmentMatrix

39

IV.ExternalSectorAssessment

41

V.DebtSustainabilityAnalysis

44

VI.ArrearstoConstructionCompaniesandClearance

50

VII.Non-HydrocarbonDiversification

53

VIII.Key2024RevenueandExpenditureMeasures

59

IX.CapacityDevelopmentPriorities

61

REPUBLICOFEQUATORIALGUINEA

BACKGROUND

1.Aseculardeclineinoilproductionhasledtomacroeconomicimbalances.Over2014-21,

realGDPfellbyacompoundgrowthrateof-5percentperyear.Revenuesandexportsalso

decreased,strainingthefiscalandexternalbalancesasreflectedbyEquatorialGuinea'sdeclining

contributiontotheregionalreserves,andelevateddomesticarrears,whichtranslatedintohighlevelsofnon-performingloans(NPLs)inthebankingsector.Whilemacroeconomicconditionsimproved

somewhatin2022owingtoelevatedhydrocarbonprices,prospectsremaingloomy,with

hydrocarbonproductionprojectedtodeclinebyafurther50percentbetween2023and202831.Withoutstrongpolicyresponses,allthegainsinpercapitaincomeachievedoverthelasttwodecadesareexpectedtofullyunravelby2028(Figure1).

Figure