清华能源讲座

Meeting

the

energy

andclimate

challenge:A

Tale

of

Two

Countries(1)

There

is

growing

competition

and

anxietyover

access

to

energy

resources.(2)

Our

long-term

economic

prosperity

is

tiedto

the

sustainable

use

of

energy.(3)

There

are

risks

of

adverse

climate

changefor

both

countries.Energy

ChallengeMillion

barrels

per

day196019701980199020002010251510

5

0ConsumptionProductionUS

became

a

net

oil

importer

in

the

1940s10

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

19508765432

China

became

a

net

oilimporter

in

the

1990sBoth

countries

are

now

importing

roughly

half

of

their

oil

204TemperatureRecord1850

–

2006IPCC

4th

climateassessment

(2007)The

Polar

Ice

Cap1979

–

2005

average

is

melting

much

faster

than

predicted

IPCC

model

predictionsSource:

Stroeve

et

al.

2007

and

updated

by

Dirk

Notz

HamburgPast

2000

years:1870

–

1890:1990

–

2008:0.0

-

.02

mm/year0.6

mm/year3.0mm/year(including

recent

satellite

data)Global

Sea

Level:

2007

IPCC

Technical

Summary

glaciers

in

northwest

China

have

shrunk

by

21%,

andare

receding

at

a

rate

of

10-

15

meters

per

year.China’s

glaciers

are

receding

rapidly

In

the

past

50

years

the

By

2050

China’s

western

glaciers

are

projected

to

decrease

by

27%.

Meltwater

from

glaciers

supplies

the

majority

of

freshwater

in

AsiaGangotri

Glacier,

Himalayas

near

China

China’s

National

Assessment

Report

on

Climate

Change

(II):

Climate

change

impacts

and

adaptation.

200718491935

19712000Cumulative

Glacier

Ice

MeltIn

45

years,

we

have

lost

over

9,000

cubic

km

of

ice.2007

IPCC

TechnicalSummaryAtmospheric

model

(red)with

natural

variations

andhuman

greenhouse

gasand

observations

(black)Atmospheric

model

(blue)with

only

natural

variationsand

observations

(black)The

change

is

caused

by

emission

of

greenhouse

gases1750,the

beginning

ofthe

industrialrevolution

Ice

Core

Data

of

CO2,

CH4,

N2O

andTemperature

(δD)

over

600,000

years.

550

ppm20,000

years

12

B.A.U.goes

offthe

slideCO2

Emissions

from

Energy

Consumption(Million

Metric

Tons

of

Carbon

Dioxide)1325,00020,00015,00010,00030,000200520001995199019851980

U.S.

and

China

CO2

Emissions:

42%

of

World

Total35,00042%

the

world5,000

0UnitedStates

ChinaRest

of14

Comparison

of

U.S.

and

China

Energy‐Related

Emissions

–

Three

Perspectivesmt

CO2emissions

calculated

using

1996

revision

of

IPCC

default

carbon

emission

factors;

commercial

fuels

only,

not

including

biomass.

Industry

also

accounts

for

the

majority

of

China’s

energy‐related

CO2

emissions4,0003,0002,0001,000

06,0005,0007,00020074,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

‐6,000

5,000

7,000

1980198319861989199219951998200120042007commercialresidentialtransportationindustry(PRC)(USA)Energy

Use

in

China

and

the

U.S.16If

the

world

follows

a

“Business-as-usual”

path,

what

do

climatemodels

predict

will

happen?17Days

above

90

degrees

FChicago:~

10

days

to

75

-90

daysgreater

than

90°

FSt.

Louis:~

45

days

to

~

120

days(1/3

of

the

year)18Projected

Increase

in

Heat-Related

Deathsin

Chicago10x

increasein

heat

-relateddeathsCOMPUTATIONALRESEARCHDIVISIONExtreme

heat

waves

will

become

common

in

China

Extreme

heat

waves

that

currently

happen

every

20

years

would

occur

every

other

year

in

much

of

ChinaNumber

of

years

between

extreme

heat

waves

by

2100

under

business-as-usual

scenario01234567891020

Areas

in

red

would

be

underwater

with

a

1

meter

rise

in

sea

level,

projected

for

this

centuryU.S.

coastal

areas

at

risk

from

sea-level

riseAreas

in

blue

below

4

feetChina

at

Risk

of

Sea

Level

Rise

IPCC:

“In

China,

a

30

cm

sea-level

rise

would

inundate

81,348

km2

of

coastal

lowland”

Rising

sea

levels

increase

risk

of

flooding,

stormsurges,

and

coastal

erosionChangjiang

Delta

OldHuanghe

DeltaPopulation

(Million)PhilippinesBangladeshIndonesiaVietnamTaiwanThailaChinand30

Chi

MinhSource:

Working

Group

II,

IPCC

4th

Assessment

Report;

UN

Human

Development

Report

07/08;

“Heating

up

the

planet’,

LowyInstitute;

World

Bank”

The

Impact

of

Sea

Level

Rise

on

Developing

Countries:

A

Comparative

Analysis”Tokyo

ShanghaiHong

Kong

Manila

DhakaRangoon

Bangkok

HoSingapore

Jakarta

0102060504070With

densely-populated

coastal

cities,

China

is

particularly

vulnerable

to

sea

level

rise

100

90

801m2m3m4m5m

Population

Impacted

bySea

Level

Rise(1m

–

5m)Predicted

water

stress

areas

around

the

worldSources:

“The

Impacts

of

Climate

Change

on

Chinese

Agriculture

-

Phase

II”;

funded

by

the

UK

Government,

in

partnership

with

China's

Ministry

of

Science

and

Technology;

October

2008;

and

China’s

National

Assessment

Report

on

Climate

ChangeBy

2030,

cropproductivity

in

China

coulddecrease

by5

–

10%.By

2050

–

2100,

rice,

maize,

andwheat

yields

coulddecline

by

37%Changes

in

arable

land

in

2050in

A2

emissions

scenarioThe

permafrost

is

beginning

to

thawZimov

et

al.,

2006.

Science.

312:1612-1613Denial

will

not

change

our

destiny.The

messageScience

has

unambiguously

shown

that

we

arealtering

the

destiny

of

our

planet.The

consequences

of

what

we

are

doing

today

will

not

be

fully

realized

for

at

least

a

hundred

years.What

will

be

our

legacy

to

our

children

and

grandchildren?Our

message

is

not

one

of

doom

andgloom,

but

of

optimism

and

opportunity.Science

and

Technology

has

given

ussolutions

in

the

past.With

the

right

government

policies,

itwill

come

to

our

aid

in

the

future.

1960:Population

=

3

B

2005:Population

=

6.5

BSource:

Food

and

Agriculture

Organization

(FAO),

United

NationsWorldProductionofGrain(1961–2004)

The

invention

and

industrial

production

of

ammoniasynthesis

by

Haber

and

Bosch

made

possible

artificial

fertilizers.The

Population

Bomb

(1968)Norman

Borlaug

awarded

Nobel

Prize29China’s

Energy

Intensity

Compared

to

the

U.S.Comparison

is

based

on

current

market

exchange

rates

and

thus

not

reflective

of

physical

energy

intensities30In

2005,

China

Adopted

an

Energy

Intensity

Reduction

Target•

November

2005:

Premier

Wen

Jiabao

at

the

Plenary

of

the

Communist

Party:

“Energy

use

per

unit

of

GDP

must

be

reduced

by

20%

from

2006

to

2010”•

March

2006:

Statement

reiterated

by

the

National

Peoples

Congress•

China’s

11th

Five

Year

Plan

(2006‐2010):

outlined

goal

of

reducing

energy

consumption

per

unit

of

GDP

by

20%

between

2006

and

2010

•

Depending

upon

the

GDP

growth

rate

‐

2010

energy−

5‐year

savings

of

about

700

Mtce

(19.5

Quads)31Key

Energy-Efficiency

Policies

and

Programs

Energy

PoliciesFuel

Consumption

Limits

For

Passenger

CarsMedium

and

Long-Term

Plan

for

Energy

ConservationRenewable

Energy

LawGovernment

Procurement

ProgramNational

Energy

Efficient

Design

Standard

for

Public

BuildingsEleventh

Five-Year

PlanThe

State

Council

Decision

on

Strengthening

Energy

ConservationRevised

Consumption

Tax

for

Larger,

Energy-Inefficient

VehiclesReduced

Export

Tax

Rebates

for

Many

Low-Value-Added

But

High

Energy-Consuming

ProductsTop-1000

Energy-Consuming

Enterprise

Program"Green

Purchasing"

ProgramRevision

of

Energy

Conservation

LawAllocation

of

Funding

on

Energy

Efficiency

and

Pollution

AbatementChina

Energy

Technology

Policy

Outline

2006Government

Procurement

ProgramNational

Phase

III

Vehicle

Emission

StandardsInterim

Administrative

Method

for

Incentive

Funds

for

Heating

and

Meteringand

Energy

Efficiency

Retrofit

for

Existing

Residential

Buildings

in

China'sNorthern

Heating

AreaLaw

on

Corporate

Income

Tax

(preferential

tax

treatment

for

investment

inenergy-saving

and

environmentally-friendly

projects

and

equipment)Allocation

of

Funding

on

Energy

Efficiency

and

Pollution

AbatementDate

Effective

2004

2005

2005

2005

2005

2006

2006

2006

2006

2006

2006

2007

2007

2007

2007

2007

2007

2008

2008Appliance

Standards

and

LabelingVarious

YearsProjectExpected

Annual

SavingsEnergy

efficiency

and

conservation

in

buildings

100

Mtce(2.8

Quads)Oil

conservation

and

substitution

38

Mt

of

oil

=

54.3

Mtce(1.5

Quads)Renovation

of

coal‐fired

industrial

boilers

50

Mtce(1.4

Quads)District

level

combined

heat

and

power

projects

35

Mtce(1

Quad)Energy‐efficient

lighting

29

TWh=

3.56

Mtce(0.1

Quads)Motor

system

energy

efficiency

20

TWh=

2.46

Mtce(0.07

Quads)Waste

heat

and

pressure

utilization

1.35

Mtce(0.04

Quads)Energy

systems

optimization

Not

specifiedGovernment

procurement

of

energy

efficiency

products

Not

specifiedMonitoring

and

evaluation

systems

Not

specifiedTotal>250

Mtce(6.9

Quads)32Ten

Key

Projects33Reducing

Energy

Use

in

the

Industrial

Sector•

China’s

national‐level

government

established

the

Top‐1000

Energy‐Consuming

Enterprises

Program•

Provincial

and

local

governments

signed

agreements

with

about

100,000

smaller

companies•

All

companies

using

more

than

a

certain

threshold

level

of

energy

annually

agreed

to

develop

energy

conservation

targets

and

action

planskg

coal

equivalent/10,000

(2000)

RMB341,000

500

03,5003,0002,5002,0001,500198019851990199520002005Source:

National

Bureau

of

Statistics,

China

Statistical

Abstract,

various

years.

1980‐2002:Average

Annual

Decline

of

5%

per

year

Energy

Use

in

China:

Recent

Trends4,5004,000

2002‐2005:Average

Annual

Increase

of

2%

per

year

2005‐2006:1.79%

decrease

2006‐2007:

4.04%

decrease

2007‐2008:4.59%

decreaseHistoric

investments

in

energy

efficiency,

renewable

energy,and

transmissionDoubling

federal

investment

inscience

The

House

of

Representatives

has

passed

energy

and

climate

change

legislation

that

places

a

cap

on

carbon

emissions

thatwill

reduce

carbon

emissions

bymore

than

80%

by

2050President

Obama

and

U.S.

Congress“To

protect

our

planet,

now

is

the

time

to

change

the

waythat

we

use

energy.

Together,

we

must

confront

climatechange

by

ending

the

world's

dependence

on

fossil

fuels,by

tapping

the

power

of

new

sources

of

energy

like

thewind

and

sun,

and

calling

upon

all

nations

to

do

their

part.And

I

pledge

to

you

that,

in

this

global

effort,

theUnited

States

is

now

ready

to

lead.”President

Barack

Obama

Prague,

Czech

Republic5

April,

2009

2009

is

the

30th

Anniversary

of

the

U.S.-ChinaAgreement

on

Cooperation

in

Science

and

Technology

Longest-standing

accord

between

our

countries

Led

to

an

era

of

robust

government-

to-government

collaboration“Science

and

technology

also

have

played

acritical

part

in

the

dramatic

advances

of

ourrelationship

with

the

People's

Republic

ofChina.”

President

Jimmy

Carter

25

January,

1979We

continuethat

tradition

todayDeng

XiaopingJimmy

Carter

In

the

next

few

decades,

energy

efficiency

and

conservation

will

bethe

most

effective

mitigations

tools.Regulation

stimulates

technology:

Refrigeratorefficiency

standards

and

performance.Energy

savings

is

greater

than

all

of

US

renewable

energy.

Regulation

of

consumer

electronics

and

computers

can

save

a

similar

amount

of

energy.Billion

kWh

per

yearSaved

UsedUsed

US

Electricity

Use

of

Refrigerators

andFreezers

compared

to

sources

of

electricity0200100300400800700600500150

MRefrigeratorsand

Freezersat1974effat2001effNuclearConventionalHydro3

Gorges

DamAll

existingRenewables50

Million

2

kW

PV

SystemsChina

has

adopted

aggressive

fuel

economystandards

to

curb

oil

demand

growthSource:

Innovation

Center

for

Energy

and

TransportationChinese

vehicle

fleet

projected

to

grow

rapidly

through2050,

with

a

corresponding

growth

in

oil

demandSource:

“Projection

of

Chinese

Motor

Vehicle

Growth,

Oil

Demand,

and

CO2

Emissions

through

2050”,Argonne

National

Lab,

2006.China

is

the

third

largest

oil

importing

countryafter

US

and

JapanInternational

collaborations

that

jointlydevelop

new

technologies•

Energy

efficient

and

cost

effectivebuildingsSantorini,

Greece

White

roofed

buildings:Sunlight

energy

is

reflectedback

into

space

rather

than

heating

up

buildings

and

homes

in

the

summer.

Dallas,

TexasRetrofitting

urban

roofs

and

pavements

with

solar-reflective

materials

is

equal

to

eliminating

carbon

emissions

from

all

automobiles

for

11

years.

Buildings

consume

40%

of

our

energy:A

new

way

of

designing

and

constructing

buildings.Virtual

Building

integrationConceptualDesignDetailedDesign

Construction

&

Installation

Computer-aided

design

toolswith

Embedded

Energy

Analysis

OperationContinuous

real-time

commissioningComputer-controlled

operation

with

Sensors

and

Controls

for

Real-Time

Optimization

•

Oxygen

sensor

•

Air

pressure

sensor

•

Air

temperature

sensor

•

Engine

temp.

sensor

•

Throttle

position

sensor

•

Knock

sensorU.S.

has

roughly

300

billionsquare

feet

of

real

estateChina

will

add

about

300billion

square

feet

of

realestate

within

the

next

15yearsIn

a

typical

year,

half

of

allnew

floor

space

in

the

worldis

built

in

ChinaInternational

collaborations

that

jointlydevelop

new

technologies•

Energy

efficient

and

cost

effectivebuildings•

Carbon

capture

and

sequestration,Nuclear

EnergyUS,

China,

Russia,

and

India

have

2/3

of

the

world’sknown

coal

reserves.International

collaboration

in

carbon

capture

and

storagewill

accelerate

deployment

of

CCS

technologies.1.

As

with

many

countries,

the

US

is

pursuing

both

pre-(e.g.

IGCC

and

oxy-burn)

and

post-combustion

CO2capture

methods.2.

Our

goal

is

to

have

commercial

deployment

of

CCSbegin

in

8

–

10

years.CO2

capture

and

sequestration3.

Many

new

coal

plants

will

be

built

before

CCS

is

routinely

deployed.

We

need

an

efficient

capture

technology

from

existing

coal

plants.

DOE

issupporting

R&D

in

numerous

avenues

(membranetechnologies,

phase

separation,

catalytic

capture).IGCC

power

plantIntegration

of

IGCC

with

chemical

synthesisPoly-generation

of

Power

and

Chemicalsmay

justify

higher

IGCC

investmentsNuclear

Fission

provides

carbon-free

base-load

power•

The

nuclear

waste

issue

is

solvable.•

Nuclear

proliferation

is

a

concern

and

requiresinternational

cooperation.Gen

III+

reactors(e.g.

AP

1000):•

Natural

circulation•

Passive

safety•

Decreased

numberof

componentsmeans

lower

costInternational

collaborations

that

jointlydevelop

new

technologies•

Energy

efficient

and

cost

effectivebuildings•

Carbon

captur