加拿大电力系统2050愿景-英

V

ISION20

50THEFUTUREOFCANADA’SELECTRICITYSYSTEMVision2050–

TheFuture

ofCanada’s

ElectricitySystemAcknowledgementsAboutCEACanadianElectricityAssociationmembersgenerate,transmitanddistributeelectricalenergytoindustrial,commercial,

residential

andinstitutionalcustomersacross

Canadaeveryday.

Fromverticallyintegratedelectricutilities,independentpowerproducers,transmissionanddistributioncompanies,topowermarketers,tothemanufacturersandsuppliersofmaterials,technologyandservicesthatkeeptheindustryrunningsmoothly—allarerepresentedbythisnationalindustryassociation.BackgroundresearchandearlyversionsofthispaperwerepreparedbyJohnHaffneroftheHaffnerGroupwithcontributionsfromWillemVriesendorp,inclosecollaborationwiththeCanadianElectricityAssociation.Inclusionofnamesofindividualsisforacknowledgementpurposesonlyanddoesnotconstituteanendorsementofthematerial.©CanadianElectricityAssociation(CEA)2014.April2014Edition.www.vision2050.caAllrightsreserved.Permissionisgrantedtoreproduceallorpartofthispublicationfornon-commercialpurposes,aslongthesourceiscited.Recommendedcitation:“Vision2050–TheFutureofCanada’s

ElectricitySystem,”CanadianElectricityAssociation,2014.Allinquiriesregardingthispapershouldbeaddressedto:CanadianElectricityAssociation6132309263info@electricity.cawww.electricity.caDisponibleégalementenfrançais.Photo:courtesyofAltaLinkCanadianElectricityAssociation1TABLE

OFCONTENTSGridModernization(SmartGrid)HumanResources3031INTRODUCTION:TIMEFORA

VISION2KeyFinancialandEconomicLeversAffectingtheSystem1.FUNDAMENTAL

CHARACTERISTICSOFTHEELECTRICITYSYSTEM3232333467OperatingSubsidiesCapitalSubsidiesCarbonPricingSlowTurnoverEnergyInterdependenceElectricitySystemasaPublicGood8104.THECASEFORACTIONNOW2.ELECTRICITYMIXSCENARIOFOR20503612PrinciplesforPrudentElectricityInvestmentsTheMostLikelyScenario14383.KEYVARIABLES

AFFECTINGTHEFUTUREOFCANADA’SELECTRICITYSYSTEM5.VISION2050401819202022222324RecommendationOne:AccelerateInnovationandCustomerManagementofEnergyKeyVariablesintheSizeoftheSystem42KeyVariablesintheCompositionoftheSystemRecommendationTwo:

ImplementFinancialInstrumentsforCarbonReductionNuclear4445FossilFuelsNaturalGasCoalRecommendationThree:

EnableElectricVehiclesRecommendationFour:ExpandCollaborationAcrossBorders45Renewables6.CONCLUSION:A

CHOICETOMAKEKeyVariablesAffectingtheManagementoftheSystem4726262728EnergyEfficiencyandDemandManagementElectricVehicles(EVs)ConsumerManagementofEnergy2Vision2050–

TheFuture

ofCanada’s

ElectricitySystemINTRODUCTION:TIME

FOR

A

VISIONTHISISONEOFTHOSEMOMENTSOFCHANGEINCANADA’SELECTRICITYSYSTEMPhoto:courtesyofBCHydroandPowerAuthorityCanadianElectricityAssociation3CHANGEINTHEELECTRICITYINDUSTRY

TENDSTOCOMEINWAVES.THEINDUSTRY

ISDESIGNEDTOBECONSERVATIVE

ANDCONTROLLED,SOITCANENSURERELIABILITY.

PLANNINGHORIZONSAREMEASUREDINDECADES,IFNOTGENERATIONS,

WITHLONGPERIODSOFSILENCEBROKENBYMOMENTSOFCHANGE.Thisis

oneofthosemomentsofchangeinCanada’s

–

andindeedNorthAmerica’s

–electricitysystem.There

are

severalreasons

why:ofscale.Reliabilityimproved

withtransmissionthatenabledlargemovementofelectricityfromoneplacetoanother.

Together

thesefactorsdrovethedevelopmentoftheindustryasweknowit.Manyelectricityassetsareapproachingtheir■

■endoflifeandmustbereplaced;Inthemid-20th

century,

considerationofenvironmental

impactsbegantogrow

inimportance.Bythe21st

century,

environmentalsustainabilityoftheelectricitysystemevolvedtoa

socialimperative.Thisgaverisetothegrowthofnewrenewable

technologiessuchassolar,wind,biomassandtidal.These“new”renewablescomplementthelong-establishedrenewablehydroelectricity

Canadahasbeenrelying

onforovera

hundred

years.Developmentsininformationtechnology(IT)andautomationraiseexcitingpossibilitiesforareconfiguredelectricalgrid;■

■Extremeweatherremindsusofourrelianceoncriticalelectricalinfrastructure;■

■ManystakeholdersareadvocatinggreaterformsofregionalintegrationinNorthAmerica.■

■It’s

timetomodernizeourelectricitysystemforthenextgeneration.Today,

theelectricityindustryhasacommitmenttolimititscarbonfootprintandoperateinanenvironmentally-responsibleway.

Morethanthree-quartersofCanada’s

electricitygenerationcomesfromnon-emittingsources,largelyfromhydro,whichisstillthemostefficientrenewabletechnology.Acrossthecountry,

morenon-hydrorenewablesarebeingaddedtothegridandtheindustrycontinuestofindnewwaystoreducetheenvironmentalimpactofgasandcoal.Theindustryisalsoworkingthroughoutthecountrytocreateacultureofenergyconservation.Asweconsideroptionsforthefuture,weneedtorememberthejourneythatcreatedthesystemwehavetoday.

Whentheelectricityindustrystartedinthelate19th

century,

itwasmadeupofanumberofindependentoperations,citybycity;whatwemightnowcallmicro-grids.Itbecameapparentearlyonthatbothcostandreliabilitycouldbeimprovedwhenthesemunicipalsystemswerelinkedthroughmajorinvestmentsinlargergeneratingstationsandtransmissionlines.Thepriceofelectricitytendedtodrop

witheconomies4Vision2050–

TheFuture

ofCanada’s

ElectricitySystemOver

theyears,

the

role

ofthecustomer

hasevolved

companiesareupdatingtheircomplexenergyas

well.

Early

on,

thecustomerreceived

whatotherssystemsthatemployhundreds

ofexperts,thousandsofkilometres

ofwires

andmillionsofideasthathaveledtostate-of-the-arttechnologyandinfrastructure.thoughtbest.However,

theparadigmhasshiftedand,bytheendofthe20th

century,

deregulationofindustriesaccelerated,leadingtoincreasingcompetition,

which

inturn

created

opportunities

forlower

prices

and

ultimately

gave

“customer

choice”a

footholdinthe

electricity

industry.Theindustryisadaptingtothemajortechnologicalchangesofourtimeincludingthegreateruseofinformationtechnology,smartgridapplications,renewabletechnologyintegration,electrificationoftransportationandthedevelopmentofmoredecentralizedformsofgeneration.ThismeanstheindustrywillmodernizethegridandmakeitmoreMorerecently,

changingtechnologieshaveshiftedtherole

ofthecustomer,

increasing

theimpactofconsumersinshapingtheelectricitysystem.Fortunately,

thesametechnologiesthatgivethecustomeramorecentralrolealsocreateopportuni-

responsivetocustomers,meetingtwoimportanttiestobettermanagethenewcomplexitiesasthesystemevolves.Customizationtomeetconsumerneedwillbecomeakeyattributeofourelectricitysystem,allowingforefficienciesfromproductiontoend-use.objectives–thesystemwillbecomemoreefficientandpeoplewillhavemorecontrolovertheirenergyuseandcosts.Theelectricityindustryhasanobligationtoleaveafunctioningandreliablesystemtoourchildren.Itisnothingshortofitslegacytothem.Itisalsoaccountabletothepublicandgovernmentsoftodaytooperateinthepublicinterestandhasanobligationtoproviderealvalueforthemoneypeoplepayfortheirpower.

Thatmeansworkingtoearnthepublictrustbeyondproducingpowerreliably.

Theindustrymustincreaseefficiency,eliminatewasteandprovidetransparencyaboutdecisionsitmakes.Thejourney

topresent-day

reflects

a

balanceamongthreepillarsthathaveshapedtheindustryoverthelasthundredyears:Affordability;■

■Reliability;■

■Sustainability.■

■Itisnotanexactscience–thethreeattributescannotbespecificallymeasuredandputintoanequation.Infact,thedynamicsareoftendifferentineachregionofthecountry.

Findingtherightbalanceislargelydonethroughaprocessthatinvolveslegislation,regulationandoften,politicsoftheday.Giventhesedynamics,theCanadianelectricityindustryhastakenaforwardviewanddevelopedavisionforthefuture.Inthisspiritandwithinthiscontext,thisdocumenthasthreepurposes.Theelectricityindustryismore

thansimplyindividualcompaniesthatproduceanddeliverpower–itcomprisesthelargestinterconnectedmachineinNorthAmerica,anincrediblenetworkofequip-ment,peopleandpossibilities.Today,

electricityFirst,itaimstoinformitsreadersaboutthelongleadtimesinelectricityinfrastructureprojectsandtheimportanceofplanningseveraldecadesaheadinsupportofdesiredoutcomesintheshapeandcompositionoftheelectricitysystem.Second,itaimstoclarifythepolicyvariablesanddecisionsthatmustbemadeoverthenextfiveto10yearsonthepathtoensuringthereliabilityandsustainabilityofamodernizedCanadianelectricitysystemin2050.THEELECTRICITYINDUSTRY

HASANOBLIGATION

TOLEAVE

AFUNCTIONINGANDRELIABLESYSTEMTOOURCHILDRENAndthird,itadvancesavisionforthefutureofelectricityinCanada,andoffersideasforhowtoachievethisvision.CanadianElectricityAssociation5Photo:courtesyofCapitalPowerCorporationVision2050isprimarilyintendedforpolicymakersandstakeholdersintheenergysectorinCanada;itmayalsobeofrelevance

tomanyCanadianswithaninterest

inenergy,

theeconomyortheenvironment.

Increasingly,

aselectricitymovestothecenterofmanypolicydebates,thereisa

welcomebroadening

ofthedefinitionof‘electricitystakeholder’.Part1

discussesthefundamentalcharacteristicsoftheelectricitysystemthatoughttobetakenintoaccountinanystrategicplanningorvisioningexercise.Part4makesthecasefortheurgencyofaction.Part2discussesthemostlikelyscenarioforthemixofpowergenerationandincludesdataforfutureenergysupplyanddemandscenarios.Taking

intoaccounttheseearlierdiscussions,Part5offersavisionforCanada’s

electricityfuture,itsobjectivesandproposedrecommendations.Part3identifiesthekeyvariablesthatwillimpactthefutureofthesystemincludingthesize,composition,managementandeconomicvariablesthathighlighttheimportantchoicesthatmustbemadeoverthenextdecadeinCanada.Vision

2050creates

anopportunitytocontinuedeliveringthe

three

pillars

of

a

strongelectricitysystem–

reliability,affordability

andsustainability.

TheCanadianElectricityAssociation(CEA)welcomesyourviewsonVision

2050.16Vision2050–

TheFuture

ofCanada’s

ElectricitySystemFUNDAMENTALCHAR

ACTERISTICSOF

THE

ELECTRICITYSYSTE

MWHILEITM

AYSEEMLIKEWEHAVE

YEARSTODECIDEONTHESYSTEMWEWANT,

2050ISANELECTRICHEARTBEAT

AWAYCanadianElectricityAssociation7THEELECTRICITYSYSTEMHASTHREEFUNDAMENTAL

CHARACTERISTICSTHAT

COMBINETODETERMINEITSEVOLUTIONANDTHECONSTRAINTSUNDERWHICHITOPERATES:

ITSINFRASTRUCTUREISREPLACEDONLY

VERYSLOWLY,

ITSPRINCIPAL

ACTORSAREINTERDEPENDENTACROSSBORDERS,ANDITMANAGESANDDELIVERSA

PUBLICGOOD.SlowTurnovertheentireindustry–occuronlyrarely.

AsCanadianenergyexpertVaclav

Smilcomments:“Wishfulthinking,pioneeringenthusiasm,andbeliefintheefficacyofseeminglysuperiorsolutionsarenotenoughtochangethefundamentallygradualnatureofenergytransitions…[They]nearlyalwaysrequiremajorinfrastructuraldevelopments…moreover,

theyinevitablyconfrontenvironmental,legal,ororganizationalcomplicationsandareTheelectricityindustryhasamuchslowercapitalstockturnoverthanmostotherindustries.MostNorthAmericansreplacetheirpersonalcomputereverythreetofouryearsandtheirfamilycareverydecadeorso.Incontrast,coalplantsoperatefor50yearsormore

andnuclearplantsfor40yearsormore.Hydroelectricplantscanoperateformorethanacentury–asisthecasewithDeCewFallsGeneratingStationNo.1inOntario,inservicein1898,andPointeduBoisinManitoba,inservicehinderedbyirrationalperceptionsofrisk.”2Theslowpaceofturnoverinelectricityhasaclearimplication:whileitmayseemthatwehaveyearstodecideonthesystemwewant,2050isanelectricheartbeataway.

Whatwedecidetobuildtodaywillformthefoundationforthesystemourchildrenandgrandchildrencounton.

Onceinfrastructureisinplacetherearesignificanteconomiccoststofailingtomaximizeitforthedurationofitsverylongusefullife.Inotherwords,itwillbewithusfordecades,sowehadbetterchoosewisely.in1911–

bothare

stilloperatingsafelytoday.1Transmission

anddistributionlinesalsohavea

longprovenance:

Quebec’s

transmissionsystemisorganizedaround

735kilovolt(kV)powerlines,thefirstofwhichwascommissionedinNovember1965.Electricityassetsarealsoslowtoturnoverbecauseinnovationstendtooccurataslowerpacethaninmanyotherindustries,andtrulydisruptiveinnovations–innovationsthatredefine12CanadianHydropower

Association,“Hydropower

inCanada:Past,Present,

andFuture,”,

RenewableEnergyWorld.Com,

October1,2009,accessedFebruary10,2014,/rea/news/article/2009/10/hydropower-in-canada-past-present-and-future.VaclavSmil,“TheTrue

(Slow)PaceofEnergyTransitions,”AEIdeas,September8,2010,accessedFebruary10,2014,/2010/09/the-true-slow-pace-of-energy-transitions/.8Vision2050–

TheFuture

ofCanada’s

ElectricitySystemPhoto:courtesyofHydro-QuébecEnergyInterdependenceENERGYRESOURCESAREINTERDEPENDENTTOASIGNIFICANTEXTENT,

ESPECIALLYINTERMSOFTHEELECTRICITYGRIDANDINTERNATIONALENERGYPRICESEnergyresources

are

interdependent

toa

significantextent,especiallyintermsoftheelectricitygridandinternationalenergyprices.IntheNorthAmericancontext,when

overgrown

trees

downed

powerlinesin

Ohioin

2003

and

cascadingblackoutsoccurred

as

farawayasJames

Bay

inCanada,Canadiansweregivenadramaticreminderofhowourpowersystemstietogether.

Altogethermorethan508generatingunitsat265powerplantsacrossCanadaandtheUnitedStatesshutdownduringtheoutage.3TherearemanywaysthatourenergysystemsarealreadyinterconnectedinNorthAmerica.TheCanadianelectricitycommunityworksalongsideitsU.S.counterpartstodevelopandmaintainreliability,

quality,

safetyandenvironmental

standards,aswellasexchangeideasandsupportonsharedpracticesandtrendsofcommoninterest.WhenHurricaneSandyhitNewYork

CityespeciallyhardinOctober2012,theCanadianElectricityAssoci-ationanditsmemberutilitiesworkedside-by-sidewithU.S.colleaguesto

restore

power.than30majortransmissioninterties.

Canadaisa4netexporterofelectricitytotheUnitedStates:in2012Canadaimported10.9terawatthours(TWh),andexported57.9TWh,foranetexporttotalof47.0TWh.5Energymarkets,includingelectricitymarkets,arealsoconnectedthroughprice.Inthesummerjustbeforethe2007earthquakethatshutdowntheKashiwazaki-KariwanuclearplantoutsideTokyo,anLNGtankerwasheadedfromtheMiddleEasttowardstheUnitedStates.OncetheearthquakeWiththeexceptionofNovaScotia,P.E.I.

andNewfoundland,allCanadianprovincesareconnectedtoneighbouringU.S.statesviamore3U.S.-CanadaPowerSystemOutageTask

Force,“FinalReportontheAugust14,2003BlackoutintheUnitedStatesandCanada:CausesandRecommendations,”USDepartmentofEnergy,

/oe/downloads/blackout-2003-august-14-2003-blackout-one-year-later-actions-taken-united-states-and.45“Electricity,”GovernmentofCanada,accessedFebruary10,2014,http://www.can-am.gc.ca/relations/electricity-electricite.aspx?lang=eng.“ElectricityExportsandImportsStatistics,”NationalEnergyBoard,accessedFebruary10,2014,http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/lctrctyxprtmprt/lctrctyxprtmprt-eng.html#s2012.CanadianElectricityAssociation9Major

Canada-U.S.Transmission

Interconnections*ConstructionscheduledforcompletioninSummer2013.Source:

National

Energy

Board.YukonNorthwestTerritoriesNunavutNewfoundland&LabradorBritishColumbiaAlbertaManitobaQuébecP.E.I.500kV(2)230kV(2)OntarioNovaScotia230kV(1)*NewBrunswick500kV(1)230kV(3)345kV(2)230kV(8)115kV(4)69kV(3)765kV(1)450kV(1)120kV(3)345kV(2)138kV(1)69kV(2)230kV(1)occurred,thetankerchangedcourseforJapan,astheenergy-deprivedcountrywaspreparedtopayU.S.prices.

Climatechangetoo

raises

the

prospect7ofglobal–

oratleastinternationally

linked–

marketsfor

carbontradingorother

forms

of

carbonregula-tion.CanadianprovinceshavebeenparticipantsinU.S.regional

climateinitiatives,includingtheRegionalGreenhouse

GasInitiativeandtheWesternClimateInitiative.Inshort,energyandespeciallyelectricitydecisionsinCanadamayaffecttheU.S.andinternationalcontext,andvice-versa.moreforitsLNG.6Eveninsituationswhere

energyfuelsare

neverexported,andinsteadsimplyconsumedathome,thedomesticpriceisinfluencedbytheglobalmarket.ThepriceofuraniumminedinSaskatchewan

canbeinfluenced

byAustralian

uraniumminingprices,whilethepriceforgasinCanadaisintegratedwith67ThestoryabouttheLNGtankerchangingcourseisfromanIHSCERAbriefingnote.AlsoseeHowardV.

Rogers,“LNGTrade-flowsintheAtlanticBasin:Trends

andDiscontinuities,”OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies,p.29:/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/NG41-LNGTradeFlowsInTheAtlanticBasinTrendsandDiscontinuities-HowardRogers-2010.pdf.“TheCanadianandU.S.naturalgasmarketsoperateasonelargeintegratedmarket.Thismeansthateventsinanyregionsuchaschangesintransportationcosts,infrastructureconstraintsorweatherwillhaveeffectsontheotherregions;”from“NaturalGas:NaturalGas–HowCanadianMarketsWork,”NationalEnergyBoard:http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/prcng/ntrlgs/cndnmrk-eng.html.10Vision2050–

TheFuture

ofCanada’s

ElectricitySystemTHEINDUSTRY

ISASTEWARD

OFTHEPUBLICTRUSTCONFERRINGSIGNIFICANTBENEFITSONSOCIETYASA

WHOLEElectricitySystemasaPublicGoodAlthoughelectricitycompanieslooktoadvancetheirowninterests,asallbusinessesdo,theindustryisalsoastewardofthepublictrust:itseffectivefunctioningconferssignificantbenefitsonsocietyasawhole.Whentheelectricitysystemfunctionswell,ithasameta-roleinsupportingthestabilityandgrowthofotherindustriesandotherpartsoftheeconomy.

Indevelopingeconomieselectricityhasbeenshowntobeadriveroforatleaststronglycorrelatedwithhumandevelopment,andisequallycriticalforthesustainabilityofdevelopedeconomies.8givenlocation.10

TheCaliforniacrisiscostthestateanestimated$40to$45billion,andremindedpolicymakersoftheimportanceofgoodmarketdesigntoencouragecompetitionandguardagainstgamingbehaviorby

traders

andsuppliers.11Thereverse

canbejustasimportant.Marketfailures

inelectricityoftentranslateintowidercrises.AstheCalifornia

electricitycrisisof2000–2001remindedus,competitioninelectricitymarketscannotbeunderstoodthrough

thestandard

analysisthatisappliedtomostotherindustries.Inatypicalindustry,

aparticipantcanonlyabuseitspositionifithasadominantmarketOn

the

householdlevel,theabsence

ofelectricitycanbelife-threatening

toelderlyandothervulnerablecitizensandratepayersduringourcoldwintersandhotsummers.12

Electricityalsorequires

environmental,

healthandsafetyregula-tion–

oftransmissionlines,ofairemissionsfromcoalplants(e.g.,mercury,

sulfuroxides,nitrogenoxides),oftheecosystemimpactandsafetydangersoffloodingfromhydroelectricplants,aswellastheneedtosafelydisposeoflong-livedradioactivewastefrom

nuclearplants.

A

recentstudy

in

ChinafoundthatpollutioninnorthernChina–

mostly

causedbycoal-fired

powershare.

Inelectricitymarkets,however,

physics9requires

thatelectrons

flowcontinuously,

andtransmissionconstraintslimitnewentrants.Giventhese

characteristics,in

a

poorlydesignedelectricity

marketa

supplier

witheven

a

tinymarketshare

–

ora

traderactingonits

behalf–canexercise

orevenabusemarket

powerunilaterallyasthelastavailableresource

ina89SeeAlanD.Pasternak,“GlobalEnergyFuturesandHumanDevelopment:AFrameworkforAnalysis,”U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,

October2000,/pdf/239193.pdf,ore.g.,AmieGaye,“AccesstoEnergyandHumanDevelopment,”HumanDevelopmentReport,/en/content/access-energy-and-human-development.Hencetheterm“abuseofdominantposition”incompetitionlaw,

andtheuseoftheHerfindahl-HirschmanIndextomeasuremarketconcentrationasameansofevaluatingwhetherthemarketiscompetitiveornot.Seee.g.,“GlossaryoftermsusedinEUcompetitionpolicy:Antitrustandcontrolofconcentrations,”Directorate-GeneralforCompetition,Brussels,July2002,http://ec.europa.eu/competition/publications/glossary_en.pdf.10

Foradetailedexplanationofhowasupplierwithaverysmallmarketsharecanabusemarketpowerthroughphysicaloreconomicwithholding,seee.g.,FrankWolak,“LessonsfromInternationalExperiencewithElectricityMarketMonitoring,”July11,2005,/group/fwolak/cgi-bin/sites/default/files/files/wolak_market_monitoring_jul05.pdf.11

ChristopherWeare,“TheCaliforniaElectricityCrisis:CausesandPolicyOptions,”SanFrancisco:PublicPolicyInstituteofCalifornia,2003,p.4,/content/pubs/report/R_103CWR.pdf.12

Seee.g.,SeanCampbell,“2003Europeanheatwave,”February23,2009presentation,/2009Q1/111/ATMS111%20Presentations/Folder%201/CampbellS.pdf.CanadianElectricityAssociation11Photo:courtesyofSaskatoonLight&PowerINTHINKINGABOUTTHEFUTUREOF

ELECTRICITY,

WEMUSTBEMINDFULOFITSBENEFITSANDRESPONSIBILITIESTOSOCIETYASA

WHOLE,ANDACROSSGENERATIONSplantsthathavefewerairemissioncontrols

–causes“peopleinnorthern

Chinatoliveanaverageof5.5yearsshorterthantheirsouthern

counterparts.”13ElectricityhasadirectimpactonthelifeofeveryCanadian.Inthinkingaboutthefutureofelectricity,therefore,wemustbemindfulofitsbenefitsandresponsibilitiestosocietyasawhole,andacrossgenerations.Ouroverridingobjectivemustbetoprovidetoourchildrenasystemthatisthoroughlyreliableandsustainableandthatcansupporttheirstandardoflivingandsustainedeconomicgrowth,justasthecurrentsystemhasforourgeneration.Forallthesereasons,electricitymarketsrequireeffectiveregulation.Inshort,whetherelectricityutilitiesarepubliclyownedorareprivatecorporations,theyalsoinescapablyservethepublicinterest–andultimatelymustanswertothegeneralpublic.13

JonathanKaiman,“China’s

relianceoncoalreduceslifeexpectancyby5.5years,saysstudy,”

TheGuardian,July9,2013,accessedFebruary10,2014,http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jul/08/northern-china-air-pollution-life-expectancy.Alsosee:Yuyu

Chenetal,“EvidenceontheimpactofsustainedexposuretoairpollutiononlifeexpectancyfromChina’s

HuaiRiverpolicy,”ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences,May28,2013,/content/early/2013/07/03/1300018110.212Vision2050–

TheFuture

ofCanada’s

ElectricitySystemELECTRICIT

YMIX

SCENARIOFOR

2050SCENARIOSANDMODELSCANHELPDEFINEWHAT

ISPOSSIBLEANDWHAT

ISNOTWHENTHINKINGABOUTOURELECTRICITYFUTUREPhoto:courtesyofNovaScotiaPowerInc.CanadianElectricityAssociation13LOOKINGTOTHEFUTURE,ELECTRICITYSCENARIOSCOMBINEDEMANDANDSUPPLY

INPUTSINTOPOSSIBLEPICTURESOFTHECOMINGYEARS.OnthedemandsidetheytakeintoaccountfactorsScenarios:Composingenergyfutures

to

205017,suchaspopulation,grossdomesticproduct(GDP),

wecannotpredict

withcertaintywhatwillshapeandtechnologytoformaloadforecast.Onthesupplyside,theyconsidersuchvariablesasthecostoffuels,regulatoryconstraints,siteavailability,transmissionanddistributionpotential,andtheoddsofsocialacceptance.the

pathtoa

lowcarbon

future

inelectricity.We

doknowtherewillbearoleforhydroelectricity,somecontinuingrolefornaturalgas,andtheuseofcoalwillbedependentuponcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS).Energydemandwillbeafunctionofpopulationgrowth,continuingimprove-mentinenergyintensity,

andgrowthofelectricityintransportationandsomeotherpartsoftheeconomy.

Thecompositionofthesystem(i.e.,theamountofcoal/CCS,naturalgas,nuclear,

wind,solar,

biomassandtidal)willbedependentuponchangesintheeconomicsofthosetechnologiesalongwithtechnologicaladvancementsinenergystorage.Inotherwords,

variousscenariosandmodelscanhelpdefinewhatispossibleandwhatisnotwhenthinkingaboutourelectricityfuture.ModellingworkonelectricityscenariosinNorth

America,Canadaandat

provincial

levelshasalready

beenundertaken

bya

number

oforganizations.While

varying

scenariosto2050exist,

suchas

theTrottier

EnergyFutures

Project(TEFP)

Low-CarbonEnergyFutures:

A

Reviewof

National

Scenarios14,

the

NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory’s

(NREL)Renewable

ElectricityFutures

Study

(RE

Futures)15,

the

InternationalEnergy

Agency’s

World

EnergyOutlook201316and

theWorld

EnergyCouncil’s

World

Energy,14

“Low-CarbonEnergyFutures:AReviewofNationalScenarios,”TrottierEnergyFuturesProject,January2013,http://www.trottierenergyfutures.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Lo