国际能源署-2005-2019年主要市场的车辆燃油经济性（英）-2021.11-195正式版

WORKINGPAPER22

VEHICLEFUELECONOMYINMAJORMARKETS2005-2019

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits30membercountries,8associationcountriesandbeyond.

Pleasenotethatthispublicationissubjecttospecificrestrictionsthatlimititsuseanddistribution.Thetermsandconditionsareavailableonlineat/t&c/

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Source:IEA.Allrightsreserved.

InternationalEnergyAgency

Website:

IEAmembercountries:

Spain

Australia

Sweden

Austria

Switzerland

Belgium

Turkey

Canada

UnitedKingdom

CzechRepublic

UnitedStates

Denmark

IEAassociationcountries:

Estonia

Finland

Brazil

France

China

Germany

India

Greece

Indonesia

Hungary

Morocco

Ireland

Singapore

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SouthAfrica

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SlovakRepublic

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Abstract

Abstract

ThisreportpresentsthelatestupdatetotheGlobalFuelEconomy

Initiative’sbiannualbenchmarkingreportonlight-dutyvehiclesales.

Thereporttrackstheprogressoffueleconomyofnewlight-duty

vehicles,providingthelatestinsightsbasedonarichdataset

coveringabout85-90%ofgloballight-dutyvehiclesalesand

extendingfrom2005to2019.ItleveragesthesedataandIEA

modellingtoinformpolicymakersonthepoliciesthatwouldbe

neededtoalignthepaceoflight-dutyvehicleefficiency

improvementswithclimateambitions.ToinformtheGlobalFuel

EconomyInitiative(GFEI)targets,whichgobeyondtailpipe

emissions,thisreportextendsthescopeofanalysisfromratedfuel

economyandtailpipeemissionstoconsiderthecurrentand

potentialperformanceofdifferentlight-dutyvehiclefuel-powertrain

optionsonawell-to-wheelbasis;quantifyinggreenhousegas

emissionsincurredinproducing,transportinganddeliveringboth

conventionaltransportfuels(derivedfromoilandgas),andenergy

carrierssuchaselectricityandhydrogen.

PAGE|3

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Annexes

Acknowledgments

ThispublicationwaspreparedbytheEnergyTechnologyPolicyDivisionwithintheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooksoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).ThestudywasdesignedanddirectedbyTimurGül(HeadoftheEnergyTechnologyPolicyDivision)andguidedbyAraceliFernandez(HeadoftheTechnologyInnovationUnit).Theanalysisandproductionwasco-ordinatedbyLeonardoPaoliandJacobTeter.ThereportwaspreparedwiththesupportoftheFIAFoundation,theSecretariatoftheGlobalFuelEconomyInitiative(GFEI).

Thestructureofthisreport,themethodologicalchoices,theselectionofindicatorsandtheiranalysiswerejointlydevelopedbyLeonardoPaoli,JacobTeter,ElizabethConnelly,EktaMeenaBibraandJacopoTattini.LeonardoPaolicarriedouttheIEAdatabaseupdateforthisanalysis,supportedbyCirilWakounig.ElizabethConnelly,EktaMeenaBibraandJacopoTattinicarriedouttheanalyticalworkanddraftingunderpinningwell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsaccounting(Chapters3and4).HidenoriMoriyaandAlisonPridmorecontributedtothepolicyanalysis(Chapter2).PraveenBains,Tae-YoonKim,ChristopheMcGladeandUweRemmeoftheIEAprovideddataandinsightsintowell-to-tankfuelsupplypathways.SarahMcBainprovidedvaluablesupport,mostnotablyforthecountryreports.ApostolosPetropoulosandKeisukeSadamorioftheIEAprovidedvaluablefeedback.

RepresentativesoftheGlobalFuelEconomyInitiative(GFEI)partnerorganisationsreviewedthemanuscript,including:RichardClarkeandSheilaWatsonoftheFIAFoundation,GeorgBiekerofICCT,PierpaoloCazzola,MatteoCragliaandStephenPerkinsoftheInternationalTransportForumandJulieWitcoverofUCDavis.

Peerreviewersprovidedessentialfeedbacktoimprovethequalityofthereport.Theyinclude:KoichiroAikawa,KatsutoshiNosakiandYuichiroTanabe(Honda);CarinaAlles(CombustionTCP);VincentBenezech(VeitchListerConsulting);VivianaCigolotti(ENEA);FrançoisCuenot(UNECE);MichaelDwyer(EIA);HiroyukiFukuiandMaxParness(Toyota);StephenHsu(AdvancedMaterialsforTransportTCP);HiroyukiKanekoandGenSaitou(Nissan);SujithKollamthodi(RicardoAEA);MarttiLarmiandYuriKroyan(AaltoUniversity);PhilipJ.Lenart(ExxonMobil);WilliamLilley(Aramco);ZifengLuandMichaelWang(ArgonneNationalLaboratory);PaulLucchese(HydrogenTCP);PaulMiles(CombustionTCP);HidetakaNishi(METI);LucPelkmans(BioenergyTCP);JosephPoligkeit(Volkswagen);TaylorReich(ITDP);RobertSpicer(BP);BiankaUhrinova(Equinor);KimWinther(AdvancedMotorFuelsTCP);UweZimmer(Infineum).

AndrewJohnstonwastheprimaryeditorofthisreportandErinCrumcarriedresponsbilityforcopy-editing.TheauthorswouldliketothanktheIEACommunicationsandDigitalOffice,inparticularJonCuster,AstridDumondandThereseWalsh,fortheirassistanceinproducingthereportandassociatedonlinetools.

PAGE|4

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Executivesummary

Executivesummary

PAGE|5

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Executivesummary

Achievingthe2030targetoftheGlobalFuelEconomyInitiativerequiresalmosttriplingthespeedofprogresssince2005

Theaimofthisreportistotracktheprogressoffueleconomyofnewlight-dutyvehiclesacrosstheglobetoinformpolicymakersontheeffectivenessofrelevantpoliciesinplacetowardsthepaceoffueleconomyimprovementstobeinlinewithclimateambitions.ThereportmeasuresprogressagainsttheGlobalFuelEconomyInitiative(GFEI)targetofhalvingthefuelconsumptionofnewlight-dutyvehiclesby2030,relativeto2005.

Theurgencyofpolicyactionisunderlinedbythefactthatfueleconomyprogressisstalling.Theaverageratedfuelconsumptionofnewlight-dutyvehiclesfellbyonly0.9%between2017and2019(thelatestyearforwhichdataareavailable),to7.1litresofgasolineequivalentper100kilometres(Lge/100km).Thisdropisfarsmallerthanthe1.8%annualaveragereductionbetween2010and2015.

Thethreemajorcarmarkets–thePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter,“China”),theEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates–accountedfor60%ofglobalsalesoflight-dutyvehiclesin2019,whichtotalled90million,down7%from2017.Between2017and2019,averageratedfuelconsumptionroseinEurope,astheEuropeanUnion’sCO2emissionregulationsdidnotrequireanyfurtherimprovementuntil2020,whenratedemissionsfromnewvehiclesdeclinedbymorethan10%year-on-year.IntheUnitedStates,theaveragefuelconsumptionofnewlight-dutyvehicles

remainedunchangedbetween2017and2019,followingarelaxationoffueleconomystandards.Incontrast,averagefuelconsumptiondeclinedinChina,drivenbyfueleconomystandards,andinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies.

Totalimprovementsaresignificantlylowerthanthe2.8%yearlyfueleconomyimprovementsneededtomeettheGlobalFuelEconomyInitiativetargetofhalvingthefuelconsumptionofnewlight-dutyvehiclesby2030relativeto2005.Givenslowprogresstodate,achievingthistargetwillrequirefuelconsumptiontodecreaseby

4.3%peryearonaveragefrom2019to2030–aneartriplingoftheaverageannualpaceofimprovementsince2005.Suchatransformationinfuelconsumptiontrendscanbebroughtaboutonlybystrongerpoliciesthatincreasethemarketsharesofefficientelectriccarsaswellasglobaladoptionofstate-of-the-artefficiencytechnologiesininternalcombustionengines.

TheimportanceofelectricvehiclesisunderlinedbythefactthatCO2emissionsfellfasterthanfueleconomybetween2017and2019becausemarketpenetrationofelectricvehiclesrose.GlobalaverageratedCO2emissionsin2019were167grammesofCO2perkm(gCO2/km),a1.6%decreasefrom2017.

PAGE|6

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

TomeettheGFEI2030target,countriesneedtoalignlegislationonfueleconomywiththeirclimatepledges.Countries’currentandstatedpoliciesarenotsufficienttomeettheGFEI2030target,asshownbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)StatedPoliciesScenario.Ifcountriesaligntheirfueleconomystandardsandmarketadoptionofzero-emissionvehicleswiththeirplanstoachievetheirnationallydeterminedcontributionsand/ornetzeroemissionspledges,however–asshownintheIEAAnnouncedPledgesScenario–theycanmeetthe2030

GFEItarget.

OnlytheNetZeroEmissionsby2050ScenariomeetstheGFEI2050target.TheGFEI’slong-term,moreambitioustargetistoreducewell-to-wheelemissionsoflight-dutyvehiclesby90%by2050,relativeto2005.IntheAnnouncedPledgesScenario,theseemissionsdeclinebyonlyabout40%by2050.MeetingtheGFEIgoalfor2050requiresanenergyandtransportsectortransformationofthescale,speedanddepthdepictedintheIEA

NetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.

ThefactthatonlytheNetZeroScenariocanachievethisambitionhighlightstheneedforrapid,targetedactiononmanyfronts,includingimprovingvehicleefficiency;deployingzero-emissionvehicles;decarbonisingelectricityandhydrogensupply;encouragingshiftstoothermodesoftransport;andmanagingtraveldemand.

PAGE|7

Executivesummary

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Executivesummary

ImprovementsinaveragenewfuelconsumptionandtailpipeCO2emissionsarestalling

Averagefuelconsumptionofnewlight-dutyvehiclesales,2005-2019

Lge/100km

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Europe

China

DevelopingandEmerging

Japan

UnitedStates

World

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Notes:Ratedfuelconsumptionwasconvertedfromnationaltestcyclestoestimatedperformanceonthe

WorldwideHarmonizedLight-DutyTestCycle

usingthezero-interceptconversionequationsdevelopedbythe

InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation(2014).

TheGFEIdatasetcovers85-90%ofthelight-dutyvehiclemarket.EU27referstothecurrent27membercountriesoftheEuropeanUnion.DevelopingandEmergingreferstoemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(Argentina,Brazil,Chile,Egypt,Malaysia,Mexico,Peru,thePhilippines,theRussianFederationandUkraine).

Source:IEAanalysisbasedonIHSMarkitdatabase.

PAGE|8

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Executivesummary

IEAScenarioshighlightthepolicyambitionandtechnologyprogressneededtomeetGFEItargets

Trajectoriesofratedfueleconomy(left)andwell-to-wheelemissionsoflight-dutyvehiclesagainstGFEItargetsandIEAScenarios

Lge/100km(WLTC)

Ratedfueleconomyofnewlight-dutyvehicles

Well-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsoflight-dutyvehicles

10

eq

5

NetZeroby2050Scenario

-

2

8

GtCO

4

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank

6

3

4

2

2

1

0

0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

NetZeroEmissionsby2050

AnnouncedPledgesScenario

StatedPoliciesScenario

GFEItargets

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Note:Rated(tank-to-wheel)fueleconomynormalisedgloballytotheWorldwideHarmonizedLight-DutyTestCycle(WLTC).

Source:

IEAMobilityModel

(2021Septemberversion).

PAGE|9

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Executivesummary

Vehiclesaregettinglargerandmorepowerful,erodingprogressonfueleconomy.Buteveniftheywerenot,westillwouldnotbeontracktoachievingthe2030GFEIfueleconomytarget.

Improvementsinfueleconomyhaveslowedrecentlyfortwomainreasons:vehiclesarebecomingeverlargerandmorepowerful,andefficientengineshavenotbeenadoptedquicklyenoughtocompensate.Atthesametime,efficiencygainsinconventionalinternalcombustionenginevehiclesareslowingdownastheirremainingefficiencypotentialbecomesmoreexpensiveandtechnicallydifficulttoexploit.

Increasingvehiclesizeandpowerhaserodedasmuchas40%ofthefuelconsumptionimprovementsthatwouldotherwisehaveoccurredthankstotechnicaladvancesinvehiclesandengines.Evenifvehicleshadnotgrowninsizeandpower,however,theworldwouldstillnotbeontracktomeettheGFEItargets,astechnicalimprovementstoconventionalenginesarenotsufficientandtheirprogressisslowing.

Largerandmorepowerfulcars

Between2010and2019,sales-weightedaveragenewlight-dutyvehiclesbecame6.2%heavier,20%morepowerfulandhada7%largerfootprint,withthemostrapidincreasesinChina.Akeycauseofthistrendhasbeenashiftfromcars(sedans)toSUVsandlighttrucks.AsSUVsarelargerandheavierthanconventionalcars,theyrequiremorepowerandconsumeonaveragenearlyone-thirdmorefuelthanamedium-sizedcar.SUVs’globalshareofnewlight-dutyvehiclesalesrosefrom20%in2010to44%in2019.EveninmarketswithhighSUVsales,suchastheUnitedStates,SUVscontinuetoclaimalargershareofthemarket.InJapan,ontheotherhand,thetrendtowardslargerandheaviervehicleshasbeenfarmoremuted,inpartduetolongstandingpoliciespromotingverysmall“kei-cars”.Inaddition,ahighproportionofnewcarssoldarehybridelectricvehicles–20%in2019.Asaresultofthesetrends,theratedfueleconomyofnewlight-dutyvehiclessoldinJapanhascontinuedtoimprove.

Alternativepowertrainscandeliverstrongemissionsreductions

Hybridelectricvehiclesdeliveronaverageaboutone-thirdlowerfuelconsumptionthanconventionalgasolineinternalcombustionenginevehiclesandofferacost-effectiveoptiontoconsiderablyimprovefueleconomyofconventionalvehicles.Batteryelectricvehiclesachieveefficienciestwotofourtimeshigherthaninternalcombustionenginevehicles,withzerotailpipeCO2orpollutantemissions.Theenergyandfuelefficiencyofplug-inhybridsareintermediate,anddependcriticallyondrivers’charginganddrivingpatterns.In2019,onlysmallsharesofthelight-dutyvehiclemarkethadbeenclaimedbyhybrid(3%),plug-inhybrid(1%)andbatteryelectricvehicles(1%),sotheyhadlittleimpactonoverallemissionsperformance.Butthisislikelytochangeoverthecurrentdecade.

PAGE|10

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Executivesummary

Increasingvehicleweightandpowerhaveerodedupto40%ofimprovementsinfueleconomy

Decompositionoffuelconsumptiontrends,2010-2019

Lge/100km

10

UnitedStates

10

China

10

Europe

10

India

9

9

9

9

8

8

8

8

7

7

7

7

6

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

9.5

8.5

8.7

7.2

4

4

4

4

6.6

6.0

6.5

5.7

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

2019

2010

2019

2010

2010

2019

2010

2019

Technicalimprovements

Powertrainchanges

Vehicleattributeschanges

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Note:Technicalimprovementsrefertothedecreaseoffuelconsumptionineachpowertrain,excludingtheeffectofchangingvehicleweightandpower.(Thepowertraincomprisestheengine,transmission,driveshafts,differentialandaxles.)Powertrainchangesrefertotheimpactonfueleconomyduetochangingsalessharesofpowertrains.Vehicleattributesrefertothechangeinfuelconsumptionduetochangingvehicleattributes(weightandpower).Thedecompositionmethodologyistakenfrom

CragliaandCullen(2019)

.EuropeincludesFrance,Germany,ItalyandtheUnitedKingdom.

Source:IEAanalysisbasedonIHSMarkitdatabase.

PAGE|11

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Executivesummary

Batteryelectricvehicleshadthelowestglobalaveragegreenhousegasemissionsacrossalllight-dutyvehiclesegmentsin2019andin2030projections

Integratingwell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissions

Comparingthegreenhousegasemissionsimpactsofvehiclesacrossdifferentfuel-powertrainoptionsrequireslookingbeyondtheirratedtailpipeCO2emissions.Acoherentandcompletecomparisonrequiresanalysingtheemissionsincurredacrosstheentirelifecycle,andincludesboththe“fuel-cycle”or“well-to-wheel”emissions(thoseincurredinsupplyingfuelsandinvehicleoperations),and“vehicle-cycle”emissions–thoseincurredinmanufacturingvehiclesanddisposingofthemattheendoftheirlife(includingrecycling).

Inextendingtheanalyticalscopetoawell-to-wheelbasis,thisreportisafirststepinextendingthescopeoftheGFEIbenchmarkinganalysistoincludetheemissionsassociatedwithproducing,transportinganddeliveringtransportfuelstovehicles.

1

Keyinsightsfromextendingthescopetowell-to-wheels

Theanalysisshowsthatcomparedwiththepotentialtoreducethecarbonintensityofelectricity,thereislimitedscopeforreducingthewell-to-tankemissionsincurredinsupplyingoilproductsandnaturalgas.Moreover,thewell-to-tankportionaccountsforonly14%to18%oftotalwell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsofconventionalinternalcombustionenginevehicles.

Bycontrast,forbatteryelectricandfuelcellelectricvehicles,emissionsincurredinproducinganddeliveringelectricityandhydrogenconstitutealloperational(well-to-wheel)emissions.Rapiddeploymentofrenewablesandotherlow-carbonpowergenerationandhydrogenproductiontechnologiesarethefoundationfordecarbonisationacrosstheenergysector(andnotonlyforzero-tailpipe-emissionlight-dutyvehicles).Inallregionsandinallscenarios,thetank-to-wheelemissionsofelectricitydecreaseby2030.Globaltank-to-wheelemissionsfromsupplyingelectricitydeclineby2030fromthe2019levelbymorethan25%intheStated

PreviousIEApublications,includingthe

GlobalEVOutlook2019

and

TheRoleofCritical

MineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions,

comparethegreenhousegasemissionsincurredbydifferentlight-dutyvehiclepowertrainsonafulllife-cyclebasis.Theanalysisuponwhichthisreportbuildsintegratesthewell-to-tankgreenhousegasemissionsincurredinprovidingcurrentandfuturetransportfuelsintothe

IEAMobilityModel.

Emissionsincurredateachstepalongthe

fuelsupplychainareestimatedusingIEAdatabasesandmodellingtools,aswellasthe

GreenhouseGases,RegulatedEmissions,andEnergyUseinTechnologies(GREET)tool

developedbyArgonneNationalLaboratory.Variabilityinwell-to-tankgreenhousegasemissionsacrossregionsandtechnologies,aswellasprojectionsofhowthesedevelopinIEAscenarios,weredevelopedforcurrentandfuturepotentialroadtransportfuels.

PAGE|12

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

PoliciesScenario,35%intheAnnouncedPledgesScenarioand75%intheNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.

Specificwell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissions,estimatedingrammesofCO2equivalentperkilometre(gCO2-eq/km)foreachfuel-powertraincombinationoverthefleetaveragelifetime,varyconsiderablyacrossvehiclesegmentsandregions,aswellasbyscenario.

Emissionsperformancevariesmostwidelyinconventionalgasolineanddieselinternalcombustionenginevehicles,reflectingtherangeofmodelsandsizessoldindifferentmarkets.

Forvehiclessoldin2019,aclearrankorderintermsofglobalaveragewell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsperformanceisevidentintheStatedPoliciesScenario.Batteryelectricvehicleshavethelowestemissions,followedbyplug-inhybridsandhydrogenfuelcellelectricvehicles.Hybridvehicleshavethelowestwell-to-wheelemissionsamongcompressednaturalgas,dieselandgasolineinternalcombustionengines.

Thisrankorderdoesnotholdacrossallregionsandallscenarios.IntheStatedPoliciesScenario,hybridvehiclescanemitlessthanbatteryelectricvehiclessoldin2019inthoseregionsinwhichtheelectricitymixreliesparticularlyheavilyoncoal,althoughthisisset

Executivesummary

tochangeasgovernmentscontinuetoadoptadditionalpoliciestodecarbonisethepowersectorasameanstomeettheirlong-termdecarbonisationtargets.

ThisisreflectedbytheAnnouncedPledgesScenario,inwhichbatteryelectricvehiclesofferthedeepestcarbonreductionsonawell-to-wheelbasisineveryinstance,thankstorapidreductionsinthecarbonintensityofelectricitygeneration.Theclearcouplingbetweenpowersectordecarbonisationandbatteryelectricvehiclesprovidesastrongrationaleforpromotingbatteryelectricvehiclesasatechnologyfordecarbonisinglight-dutyvehicleoperationstomeetclimateambitions.

Thewell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsoffuelcellelectricvehiclesvarydependingmainlyonhowhydrogenisproduced.Currently,well-to-wheelemissionsoffuelcellvehiclesdrivingonhydrogenproducedviacoalgasificationcanbeashighasthoseofgasolineinternalcombustionenginevehicles,whilethoseusinghydrogenfromnaturalgassteammethanereformationachievewell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsonparwithhybridelectricvehicles.By2030intheAnnouncedPledgesScenario,asmoreandmorehydrogenisproducedthroughelectrolyserspoweredatleastinpartviarenewables,fuelcellvehiclesinsomeregionscanalsooffernear-zerowell-to-wheelemissions.

PAGE|13

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Executivesummary

Averageratedfueleconomyperformanceandwell-to-tankcarbonintensityofsupplyingfuelsdeterminewell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsintensity

Well-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsrangesacrossregionsandcountriesintheStatedPoliciesScenarioandAnnouncedPledgesScenario

gCO-eq/kilometre

Averagelifetimeemissionsforvehiclessoldin2019

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

GASOLINE

DieselICE

CNGICE

GasolineHEV

Gasoline

BEV

FCEV

ICE

PHEV

Globalweightedaverage

Citycarsegment

LargeSUV/pick-upsegment

Averagelifetimeemissionsforvehiclessoldin2030

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

STEPS

APS

NZE

GASOLINE

DieselICE

CNGICE

GasolineHEV

Gasoline

BEV

FCEV

ICE

PHEV

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Notes:STEPS=StatedPoliciesScenario;APS=AnnouncedPledgesScenario;NZE=NetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario;ICE=internalcombustionengine;CNG=compressednaturalgas;HEV=hybridelectricvehicle;PHEV=plug-inhybridelectricvehicle;BEV=batteryelectricvehicle;FCEV=fuelcellelectricvehicle.Blackbarsshowtheglobalweightedaveragewell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsperformance.Colouredcolumnsshowtherangeofperformanceacrossallfiveregionscoveredindetailinthisreport(China,Europe,theUnitedStates,Japan,anddevelopingandemergingcountries).Greybars(2019STEPSonly)showtheglobalweightedaverageperformanceofeachpowertraininthecitycarsegment(lowerbars)andlargeSUVsegment(upperbars),respectively(exceptforCNGICEvehiclesandFCEVs,wherebarsshowminimumandmaximumvaluesacrossallsegmentssold).

Source:

IEAMobilityModel,

September2021version.

PAGE|14

GlobalFuelEconomyInitiative2021

Executivesummary

Batteryelectricvehicleshavethelowestwell-to-wheelemissionsinallsegments

Ratedwell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsofnewlight-dutyvehiclesalesworldwidebysizesegment

gCOeq/kilometre

Averagelifetimeemissionsforvehiclessoldin2019

Averagelifetimeemissionsforvehiclessoldin2030

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

-50

-50

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPS

APSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

STEPSAPSNZE

Gasoline

DieselICE

CNGICE

Gasoline

Gasoline

BEV

FCEV

Gasoline

DieselICE

CNGICE

Gasoline

Gasoline

BEV

FCEV

ICE

HEV

PHEV

ICE

HEV

PHEV

Tank-to-wheel

Biogenic

Fossil

Well-to-tank

CCUS

Biogenic

Fossil

Electricity

DedicatedrenewablesNet

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Notes:STEPS=StatedPoliciesScenario;APS=AnnouncedPledgesScenario;NZE=NetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.CCUS=carboncaptureutilisationandstorage.ForFCEVs,thereddotsshowthewell-to-wheelgreenhousegasemissionsincurredifhydrogenweretobeproducedviaelectrolysiswithdedicatedrenewablesources.Theheightofthestackedcolumnshowsinsteadtotalwell-