全球能源转型展望2023

ERC

FORUM2023Global

Outlookon

Energy

Markets

and

TransitionAugust

28,

2023ERC

Forum

2023,

Bangkok,

ThailandJie

Tang,

Practice

Manager,

Energy,

World

BankJoonkyung

Seong,

Senior

Energy

Specialist,

World

BankI. ContextII.

ChallengesIII.

World

Bank

Engagement

IV.

Going

ForwardERC

FORUM2023I.

ContextERC

FORUM2023Global

GHG

emissions

continue

to

growI.

ContextERC

FORUM2023Energy

and

coal

use

contribute

significantlyI.

ContextERC

FORUM2023Coal

use

is

led

by

Asia

mainly

for

power

generationCoal

consumption

by

country

in

2020Coal

consumption

by

sector

in

2018(selected

countries)Rest

ofNon-OECD8.2%OECD18.1%Asia73.7%China54.3%India11.6%Indonesia2.2%Vietnam1.4%Philippines0.5%Thailand0.5%Pakistan0.4%Rest

of

Asia2.9%100%80%60%40%20%0%25%58%27%73%32%61%14%83%43%56%23%69%70%24%Others

Commercial/public

Heat

plants

Residential

IndustryElectricity

(incl.

CHP)Source:

BP

Statistical

Review

of

Global

Energy

2021 Source:

IEA

World

Energy

BalancesI.

ContextERC

FORUM2023Developing

countries

expect

higher

demand

growthElectricity

Consumption

per

capita

(MWh

per

person)

in

2019■

EAP

countries■

Advanced

economiesOECDElectricity

demand

growth

forecast

2020-30

(%)■

EAP

countries■

Advanced

economiesOECDI.

ContextERC

FORUM20237Electricity

demand

grows

fast

in

developing

countriesAnnual

electricity

generation

growth

for

selected

countries/economies

2010-2021

(2010

level

=

1)3.0Vietnam2.52.01.51.0China

Indonesia

PhilippinesThailandUS

/

EU

/

OECD0.52010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021I.

ContextERC

FORUM2023Many

Asian

countries

are

committed

to

net

zeroNumber

of

developing

Asian

countries

by

net

zero

target

year2030 22040 12050 232060 42065207011n.a. 8Source:

ADB,

Asia

in

the

Global

Transition

to

Net

Zero

(2023)I.

ContextERC

FORUM20239Governments

take

initiatives

for

energy

transitionI.

ContextERC

FORUM102023WBG’s

Country

Climate

and

Development

Reports

(CCDRs)

provide

diagnosis

on

intertwined

challengesI.

ContextERC

FORUM112023Feasible

pathways

for

transition

in

the

power

sectorProjected

annual

carbon

emissions

from

the

power

sectorSource:

World

BankI.

ContextERC

FORUM122023RE

capacity

will

need

to

increase

fivefold

by

2040Projected

renewable

energy

installed

capacitySource:

World

BankI.

ContextERC

FORUM132023CCDRs

shows

that

scaling

up

RE

and

phasing

down

coal

are

necessary

across

many

countriesEvolution

of

the

share

of

renewable

energy

and

coal

capacity

in

selected

countriesSource:

World

BankI.

ContextERC

FORUM142023Investment

in

clean

energy

continues

to

increaseAnnual

clean

energy

investment,

2015-2023

(US$b)Source:

IEA,

World

Energy

Investment

2023Increase

in

annual

clean

energy

investment

in

selectedcountries/regions,

2019-2023

(US$b)I.

ContextERC

FORUM152023Solar

PV

energy

auction

prices

continue

to

decline9.008.00Recent

increase

in

2022reflecting

polycrisis7.006.005.004.003.002.001.000.00India

–

6.5$c/kWhZambia–6

$c/kWhArgentina

–

5.9$c/kWhPeru

–

4.9

$c/kWhMexico

–

3.6$c/kWhChile

–

2.9

$c/kWh

UAE

–

2.4

$c/kWhTurkey–

7$c/kWhIsrael–

5.5$c/kWhEl

Salvador

–

5.1$c/kWhArgentina

–

4.1$c/kWhIndia

–

3.7$c/kWhArmenia–

4.2$c/kWhBrazil

–

3.5$c/kWhEgypt–

2.8

$c/kWhPhilippines–4.5

$c/kWhZambia

andSenegal–3.9

$c/kWhUzbekistan–

2.7$c/kWhEthiopia–2.56

$c/kWhTunisia

–

2.44$c/kWhDubai

–

1.69$c/kWhMalaysia

–

4.1$c/kWhIndia

–

3.7$c/kWhSaudi

Arabia

–1.61

$c/kWhQatar

–

1.57$c/kWhTunisia

–

3.9$c/kWhIndia

–

2.7$c/kWhSaudi

Arabia

–1.7

$c/kWhPhilippines

–6.7

$c/kWhPoland–

5.73$c/kWhBrazil

–

3.5$c/kWhIndia

–

3.1$c/kWhEurope

&

Central

Asia Latin

America Sub-

Saharan

Africa Asia

(South

&

East) MENASource:

PV

magazine,

GTM,

IEA,

Scaling

Solar,

EPE,

WB

own

data,

computed

data

from

internet

by

the

WB

teamI.

ContextERC

FORUM16PPA

tariffs

estimates

based

on

auctions($cents

/kWh)2023PV

+

battery

storage

PPA

prices

follow

the

trend14.00

13.00

12.00

11.00

10.009.00

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00Australia United

States Europe

&

Central

Asia Latin

America Sub-

Saharan

Africa Asia

(South

&

East) MENASource:

PV

magazine,

GTM,

IEA,

Scaling

Solar,

WB

own

data,

computed

data

from

internet

by

the

WB

teamI.

ContextERC

FORUM17PPA

tariffs

estimates

based

on

auctions($cents

/kWh)

Hawaii:

$c

13.9/kWh13

MW

PV

+

52

Hawaii:$c

11/kWh

MWh

battery

28

MW

PV

+

100MWh

batteryHawaii:$c

8.7/kWh*Hawaii:$c

8/kWh

Australia:20

MW

PV

+100

MWh

battery30

MW

PV

+120

MWh

battery

$c

6.8/kWh170

MW

PV

+

100

MWhbattery

Arizona:

Arizona:

$c

6.7/kWh20

MW

PV

+

$c

4/kWh100

MW

PV

+

India:

Chile:

California:

400

MWh

battery

120

MWh

battery

$c

3.8/kWh400

MW

PV

+

$c

3.8/kWh126

GW

PV

+

$c

4.6/kWh

California:

battery

battery

100

MW

PV

+120

MWh

$c

3.2/kWh400

MW

PV

+

Portugal:

battery

300

MWhbattery

$c

1.3/kWh700

MW

PV

+

storage

2023Onshore

wind

auction

prices

keep

going

down16

15

14

13

12

11

109

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

020152016201720182019202020212022Latin

America Europe Asia Africa North

AmericaSource:

wind

magazine,

tender

watch,

IEA,

WB

own

data,

computed

data

from

internet

by

the

WB

teamI.

ContextERC

FORUM18PPA

Price

($c/kWh)

Philippines–

8.5$c/kWh,

Germany

–

374

MW

7.2$c/kWh,670

France

–6.7$c/kWh

MW

294

MW

Italy

–

6.9$c/kWh,830

MW

Kazakhastan

–5.8$c/kWh,100

Germany

–

6.88$c/kWh,270

MW

Germany

–6.2$c/kWh

Argentina

–

Germany

–

MW

France

–

7.17$c/

189

MW

5.94$c/kWh,708MW6.3$c/kWh,807

MWTurkey

–

3.48

Poland

–

5.1$c/kWh,1GW

Turkey

–

4.3

$c

kWh,

519

MWSpain

–4.2$c/kWh45.5

MW

/kWh,1

GWIndia

–

4$c/kWh,Greece

–

6.54$c/kWh,

748

MW

Morocco

–3$c/kWh,850

MW

$c/kWh,1

GW

India

–4.0$c/kWh,

1.2

1.2

GW

Chile

–3.7$c/kWh,777

GW

Canada

–

2.88

Tunisia

–

3.5

Spain

–

3.5$c/

kWh,2.2

GW

GW

India

–

3.6$c/kWh,

$c/kWh,596

MW

Canada

–3.2016

$c/kWh,120MW

1.1

GW

$c/kWh,596

MW

Saudi

Arabia

–

SA

–

2.2

$c/kWh,1.6

GW

Turkey

–

3.5

Brazil–2.229$/kWh,1.2GW

2.13

$c/kWh,400

MW

$c/kWh,1

850

MW

2023Offshore

wind

auction

prices

are

plummeting16

15

14

13

12

11

109

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

020152016201720182019202020212022Latin

America Europe Asia Africa North

AmericaSource:

wind

magazine,

tender

watch,

IEA,

WB

own

data,

computed

data

from

internet

by

the

WB

teamI.

ContextERC

FORUM19PPA

Price

($c/kWh)

Netherlands:$c

8.04/kWh,

Netherlands:

700MW

UK

–8.3$c/kWh,

3196

MW

$c

7.8/kWh,

752MW

Taiwan

–8.1$c/kWh,

Denmark:

Denmark:$c

7.15/kWh,

350MWDenmark

–

6.5

$c/kWh,110

MW

3.8

GW

UK

–

5.94

$c

/kWh,$c

6.9/kWh,

350

MW

Poland–

7

$c

/kWh,5.9

GW

UK

–

6.9

$c

/kWh,

950MW

Germany

–

Italy:$c

6.9/kWh,

8300MWDenmark:

Germany

–

6$c/kWh,1.6

GW

5.6$c/kWh,1.6GW

5.7

GWDenmark:$c

5.4/kWh,

605

MW

Netherlands:$c

5.9/kWh,

700MW

UK

–

4.6

$c

/kWh,

7

GW

France

–

5.3

$c

/kWh,

$c

5.55/kWh,

600MW

600

MW

China

–2.9$c/kWh,

800

MW

2023China

becomes

the

largest

investor

in

clean

energyI.

ContextERC

FORUM202023China’s

growing

investment

leads

to

cost

reductionOnshore

wind

turbine

bid

price

in

China

(US$/kW)Wind

power

installed

capacity

in

China

(GW) 500400 403.9365328 300200 261.7282 195.5100210184131

147

163 1100 Offshore

wind

turbine

bid

price

in

China

(US$/kW)97 993.02 591631476177900700894.4500 464.12006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 443.83002017

-Q12017

-Q32018

-Q12018

-Q32019

-Q12019

-Q32020

-Q12020

-Q32021

-Q32022

-Q12022

-Q32023

-Q1Source:

World

Bank

StaffI.

ContextERC

FORUM212023Falling

green

hydrogen

cost

will

facilitate

clean

energy

transitionI.

ContextERC

FORUM222023CCUS

applications

are

growing

on

commercial

basisPipeline

of

commercial

CCUS

facilities

since

2010Commercial

CCUS

Facilities

by

number

and

total

CO2

capture

capacity

(Mtpa)(as

of

mid-September

2022)Source:

Global

Status

of

CCS

(2022)I.

ContextERC

FORUM232023In

China,

SOEs

lead

CCUS

demonstration

at

scaleCCUS

demonstration

projects

in

China Cost

of

CCUS

demonstration

projects

in

operation

in

ChinaSource:

CCUS

Progress

in

China

–

Status

Report

(2023)I.

ContextERC

FORUM242023However,

clean

energy

growth

remains

slow

in

many

developing

countries250 225 18,000 16,661

16,661200 185150 155 144 154 154 154 12,000Indonesia1005065Vietnam6,0004,9944,118105 237 375 518- -2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 20211,500 1,375 3,500 2,967 2,988 2,988 3,0651,0009179801,0563,0002,500Philippines500-427 443 443 443Thailand2,000

1,500

1,000500-1,1031,507 1,507 1,5452018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021Note:

Solar

PV

and

wind

power

installed

capacity; solar, wind;

units

in

MWI.

ContextERC

FORUM252023II.

ChallengesERC

FORUM2023Four

key

challenges

to

clean

energy

transitionEnergy

Security FinancingAffordability Just

TransitionII.

ChallengesERC

FORUM272023Meeting

fast

growing

electricity

demand

is

becoming

a

priority

amid

volatile

market

conditionsNatural

gas

and

coal

market

price

trendSource:

World

Bank,

Commodity

Markets

Outlook,

April

2023II.

Challenges

–

Energy

SecurityERC

FORUM282023High

RE

share

poses

threat

to

reliable

power

supplyCalifornia’s

hourly

load

net

of

solar/wind

in

Spring

(GW) California’s

battery

storage

capacitySource:

US

Energy

Information

AdministrationSource:

CAISOII.

Challenges

–

Energy

SecurityERC

FORUM292023Growing

battery

storage

demand

brings

risks

and

opportunitiesII.

Challenges

–

Energy

SecurityERC

FORUM302023Power

sector

resilience

constitutes

an

important

part

of

energy

security

due

to

climate

risks

on

the

riseII.

Challenges

–

Energy

SecurityERC

FORUM312023Clean

energy

transition

requires

higher

upfront

capital

investmentCapital

investment

needed

in

the

power

sector

between

2020

and

2040

(undiscounted

terms)Source:

World

BankII.

Challenges

–

FinancingERC

FORUM322023Electricity

cost

is

projected

to

increase

by

16

percentTotal

system

cost

composition

in

Indonesia,

the

Philippines,

and

Vietnam

combinedSource:

World

BankII.

Challenges

–

AffordabilityERC

FORUM332023Concessional

climate

finance

catalyzes

large

financingIndonesiaUS$12.8

billioncommitted

to226

projectsUS$7.5

billioncommitted

to398

projects•

Investment

plan

approved•

US$500

million

mobilizing

US$5

billionPhilippines•

Investment

plan

in

development•

Up

to

US$500

million

concessional

fundSource:

World

BankII.

Challenges

–

FinancingERC

FORUM342023Carbon

revenue

has

a

potential

to

fill

financing

gapEvolution

of

global

revenues

from

carbon

taxes

and

ETSs

over

time

(nominal)Source:

World

BankII.

Challenges

–

FinancingERC

FORUM352023ETS/carbon

tax

is

at

the

early

stage

in

AsiaSource:

World

BankII.

Challenges

–

FinancingERC

FORUM362023Carbon

crediting

mechanism

is

emerging

in

AsiaSource:

World

BankII.

Challenges

–

FinancingERC

FORUM372023International

supports

formed

for

energy

transitionSouth

AfricaNovember

2021 US$8.5

billionIndonesiaNovember

2022VietnamDecember

2022US$20

billionUS$15.5

billion•

Peak

power

sector

emissions

by

2030•

Reach

net

zero

power

sector

emissions

by

2050•

Increase

the

share

of

renewable

energy

inelectricity

generation

to

34%

by

2030•

Peak

power

sector

emissions

by

2030•

Limit

CFPP

capacity

to

30.2

GW•

Increase

the

share

of

renewable

energy

inelectricity

generation

to

47%

by

2030I.

ContextERC

FORUM382023New

sustainability-linked

instruments

are

growingGlobal

sustainable

debt

annual

issuance,

2013

-

Q1

2023Source:

World

Bank,

IFC

based

on

BloombergNEF,

Bloomberg

L.P.II.

Challenges

–

FinancingERC

FORUM392023Energy

transition

may

bring

adverse

economic,

social,

and

environmental

impactsII.

Challenges

–

Just

TransitionERC

FORUM402023Impacts

on

employment

and

economy

across

coal

value

chain

should

be

carefully

managedCoal

mining

employment

in

Poland Coal

mining

employment

in

ChinaSource:

World

BankSource:

Columbia

Political

Review

using

data

from

Chinese

Statistical

YearbookII.

Challenges

–

Just

TransitionERC

FORUM412023Impacts

of

the

transition

can

be

disproportionateDistribution

of

jobs

lost

and

gained,

holding

job

characteristics

fixed

in

ChinaWelfare

impacts

by

income

groups

in

2060

in

China(%

relative

to

baseline)Source:

World

BankII.

Challenges

–

Just

TransitionERC

FORUM422023Gov’t

has

a

critical

role

in

mobilizing

private

capitalSource:

World

BankII.

Challenges

–

FinancingERC

FORUM432023III.

World

Bank

EngagementERC

FORUM2023WBG

engagement

under

a

comprehensive

frameworkCross-Pillar:

Mobilize

grant

resource

for

technical

assistanceCross-Pillar:

Mobilize

concessional

finance

to

de-risk

and

reduce

costIII.

World

Bank

EngagementERC

FORUM452023Active

work

programs

in

East

Asia

and

Pacific

regionChina•

Energy

storage•

Renewable

energyintegration•

Provincial

powerinterconnection•

Heating

sectordecarbonizationThailand•

Regulatoryarrangement•

RE

developmentMongolia•

Grid

network

forrenewable

energy•

Power

systemplanning•

Electricity

and

heattariff

reformIndonesiaLao

PDR•

Grid

networkstrengthening•

Regional

powerinterconnection•

Sector

financialsustainabilityCambodia•

Grid

networkstrengthening•

Regional

powerinterconnection•

Energy

access

toclean

cookingPhilippines•

Coal

powertransition•

Grid

network

forrenewable

energy•

Offshore

wind•

Energy