印度尼西亚的基础设施投资机会 Infrastructure Investment Opportunity

RepublicofIndonesiaInfrastructureInvestmentOpportunitiesIndonesiaSeoul,26March2010BambangSusantono,Ph.D.ViceMinisterforMinistryofTransportationDeputyMinisterforInfrastructureandRegionalDevelopment,CMEAPresentedat:2ndJointTaskForceMeetingROI-ROKGlobalMacroeconomy10/4/2023WiththeGDPofUS$500billionandtotalinhabitantsof240million,IndonesiaisSouthEastAsia’slargesteconomy,owning1/3ofASEAN’stotalGDPand2/5ASEAN’spopulation.In2009,Indonesia’seconomicgrowthrateslowedatasignificantlylowerratethantheslowdownoftheworld’saverage.Itdecreasedby30%,comparedtotheworld’seconomicgrowththatdeclinedby160%.IndonesiaMacroeconomy10/4/2023Aftertheturbulencein2008,thecountry'seconomywasrelativelystablein2009.Thegrowthratetouched4.5%in2009,surpassingthetargetofthe2009statebudgetof4.3%,andwasalsohigherthantheprojectionofseveralinternationalorganizations’.GDPpercapitaexceedsUS$2,400andisexpectedtoriseupto3.4%in2010.Withthe2009GDPofUS$500billion,IndonesiaisamemberofG-20whosePPPisintheworld’stop20.Thecountry'sinflationin2009was2.78%orthelowestinthepastdecade.Fiscal,Monetary,andInvestmentPerformance10/4/2023ThesizeofIndonesia’seconomyhasbeenofinteresttoinvestors.Indonesiaexpectstoreachinvestmentgradewithinoneortwoyear.CurrentsovereigncreditratingstandsatBB(S&P)andBB+(Fitch).Strongstabilitywasrecordedintherupiahexchangerate.Towardtheendof2009,therupiahgainedtoreachthelevelof9,400perdollar.Rupiahstrengtheningof15.4%washighestinAsiain2009.LoweredForeignDebtagainstGDPratio,largeforeignexchangereserves(US$66billion),healthystatebudgetandstrongeconomicfundamentalshavedirectedthecountry’soptimisticeconomicoutlook.In2009,thecountry’sstockexchangeperformanceobtainedapositivetrend.Attheclosingof30December2009,theindexhadrisenby87%comparedto2008.ThisnumberisthesecondhighestinAsiaPacific,belowShenzhenStockExchange.Politicalstability:thePresidentSusiloBambangYudhoyonoreturnedtopowerwith60%ofthevote,layingasolidfoundationforpoliticalandsocialstability.Strengthenedpurchasingpower:BIratestayedat6.5%,whileinflationreached2.78%(lowestinadecade).Fiscal,Monetary,andInvestmentPerformance10/4/2023INFRASTRUCTUREDEMAND&SUPPLY10/4/2023Coupledwiththegrowthineconomy,Indonesiawillneedmorethan320TWhofelectricitybytheendof2018orrisingonanaverageof8.98%annually,with77%oftheamountcontributedfromJAMALI(JawaMaduraBali)systemDuring2009-2018,electricitydemandintheJAMALIsystemrisefrom108TWhto251TWhwithaCAGRof9.5%,whileincreasingfasteroutsidetheJAMALIsystemfrom31TWhto74TWhoraCAGRof10.3%.Becausethesheersizeofdemand,newinvestmentisneededforthisfield.Aprojectof10,000MWhasbeenestablishedtoanswerthisneed.ThiskindofprojectneedsUS$1–1.2millionofinvestmentperMW.ThefirstphaseofthisprojectatLabuanhasbeencompleted.The2ndphaseisbeingplanned,focusingonthediversificationofenergysourcesandonthebalanceofelectricityusedforhouseholdandindustryconsumption.ElectricityDemand10/4/2023ElectricityProduction(Gwh)ProjectionforElectricityProduction(Gwh)Withtotal80mnpassenger/year(2008),andlessthan6%oftotalIndonesiapopulationtookairtravel,IndonesiaisthemostpromisingcountryintheregionWitheconomicgrowthinthefuture,thiscouldpasstheincreaseofIndonesiapassengertraffictohigherthan9%peryearThreebiggestairportsinIndonesiahaveexperiencedover-capacity.AtJakarta’sSoekarno-Hattaairport,theover-capacityreached68%,whileinBali’sNgurahRaiairport,thenumbertouchedthestaggering300%.Airportinfrastructurewillneedtogrowformorethan32%peryear,byconsideringtheincreasingamountofthepassengersThiswillbeevenhigherwiththeopenningchanelofnewairlinesoperationsasanimpacttotheASEANopenskypolicyAirTravel10/4/2023AirPassengerAirportCapacityVSDemandAirportCrowdinessin2009(miopassengers)In2008,thenumberof‘vehicles/km’reached58,whichissignificantlyincreasedfromonly13in1995.Motorcycleincreasedbombasticallybyabout67%from2004to2008.Inthelast7years,theaveragevehiclespeedhasdeclinedby25%,from26km/hourto20km/hour,whilethenumberofmotorcycleshavetripled.47%ofthepopulationspends20%ofitsincomefortransportation,whileanother16%spendsasmuchas30%.EconomiclosscausedbyinefficienttransportationsystemisRp.5.5trillionperyear,andthatcausedbypoorairqualityisRp.2.8trillionperyear.Trafficconditions10/4/2023LargeTruckMediumBusMotorcycleLargeBusSmallBusSmall/mediumtruckPassengercarModaSplit-JabodetabekPublicTransportationMotorcycles(24)Cars(10)(38)(27)Transportmodalities–UrbanTransportRailwayBusandothersmallertransportationPersonalvehicles(cars&motorcycles)Others(onfoot,bikes,etc)JakartaneedsMassRapidTransit(MRT),railwayrevitalizationandpropertydevelopment.TheMinistryofTransportationhasplannedtheNationalRailwayRevitalizationprogramfor2010-2014.PLANNEDINDONESIAECONOMICCORRIDORS10/4/2023SurabayaDenpasarMataramJakartaMedanPekanbaruJambiPalembangLampungBandungSemarangBanjarmasinSamarindaPalangkarayaPontianakMakassarManadoMamujuPaluGorontaloManokwariJayapura125346SerangSixeconomiccorridorsacrossIndonesiadefined10/4/2023Note:Areaofcorridordefinedatallkabupaten/kotathatlie,infullorinpart,within50kmofhubandthatlie,infullorinpartalongthepathconnectinghubsinacorridor.50kmdistancebasedonWorldbankstudyofeconomicactivityvs.distancetocentreinIndonesiaSource:BCGanalysis1EasternSumatra-NorthWestJava2NorthernJavaMegahubHub/provincialcapitals5EastJava-Bali-NT3Kalimantan6Papua4WesternSulawesiIndonesiaEDC:connectingeconomiccentres&industrynodes,SEZsandspreadoutthedevelopmentalongtheway10/4/2023HubsandnodesConnectionbetweenhubsConnectionbetweenhubsandindustrynodesDevelopingandconnectingpowerandwaterplant,tohubsandindustrynodesIndustrynodeEconomiccentres(hubs)SupportinginfrastructureAirport,portsPower,waterConnectionsSource:BCGanalysisAreaofindustryfocusSEZSpecialEconomicZonesSEZSEZProposedSEZswillformnewnodesoralignwithexistingnodesorhubsExample:SixpotentialpilotsinESNWJidentifiedforfurtheranalysis

S.Sumaterarail,Dumai/Panjang/Palembangport,minemouthpowerplant,Dumai-Pekanbaruroad10/4/2023$1BninvestmentProjectprioritizationmatrixassessingimpactandfeasibility1

Pekanbaru-Dumaitollroad*****************Coalminemouthpowerplant****************

Note1:Whilethelistofprojectshavebeenprioritisedinordertoidentifythepilotprojects,alltheidentifiedprojectsarecrucialtoachievingtheobjectivesofthemasterplansandshouldbeimplemented.Theprioritisationisbasedonexistingavailabledata,incorporatingquantitativedateandqualitativeinsightsfromBCGexperiences,benchmarks,expertinterviews,aswellasinputsfromtheworkinggroupandSteeringCommittee.Itdoesnottakeintoaccountpotentialaspectssuchasinvestorinterests,political/strategicconsiderationsandtheavailabilityoffundingforeachproject.DetailedunderstandingoftheimpactandfeasibilityofeachprojectwillneedtobecarriedoutinthecontextofatechnicalfeasibilitystudyNote2:Numbersassociatedwithdatapointsrepresentuniquenumbersasprovidedintheoveralllistofprojects1.22PPPprojectsand12proposedprojectsfromsectoranalysis,hub-to-hubconnectivityandstakeholderinputsinESNWJprioritizedusingimpact-feasibilityframework.Non-PPPprojectshaveanestimatedinvestmentvaluebasedonsimilarprojecttypesrelativetoprojectscopeandbasedonindustrybenchmarksSource:PPPbookdata;Governmentdata;ExpertInterviews;Literaturesearch;Provincegovernmentwebsite;BCGanalysisExample:ESNWJCorridorsDifferentinfrastructurefocusidentifiedforthethreekeyfocussectors10/4/2023PowerplantscanbebuiltnexttotheminestoimprovepowersupplyinSumateraPalmoilRubberCoalTypeofinfrastructurePortsTollroadsAirportsWatersupply1.Powerplantsarenotrequiredforcoalminingperse,butitisanopportunitytoutilizethecoalinSumaterabybuildingthermalpowerplantsnexttothemSource:Sectormasterplans;Expertinterviews;BCGanalysisRailwaysPowerplantsLimitedrequirementgivedispersenatureofplantationandmillsPortsprojectedtobecomekeybottlenecks–capacityadditionrequiredPortsprojectedtobecomekeybottlenecks–capacityadditionrequiredSignificantgrowthinvolumesrequiresstepchangeinportcapacityLimitedrequirementgivedispersenatureofplantationandmillsCriticaltohaverailinfrastructuretomakecoalminingeconomicallyviableRequiredtosupportdownstreamindustryRequiredtosupportdownstreamindustryINFRASTRUCTUREPROGRESSANDDEVELOPMENT10/4/2023InfrastructurePolicyRoadMap10/4/2023PolicyandRegulation

ReformationImprovingtheEffectivityofStateBudgetProjectsNewSectoralLawsInfrastructureRoadMap

2005-2009NewImplementationRegulationSectoralRestructurization(RearrangingforRegulatorandOperator)DoneOnGoingImprovingStateBudgetMulti-yearcontractforpriorityprojectsE-ProcurementtoacceleratetheprocurementImplementationofMediumTermExpenditureFramework(MTEF)GovernmentSupportforPPPprojects(Public-PrivatePartnership)InfrastructureFund(PT.SaranaMultiInfrastruktur)RiskManagementUnitunderMinistryofFinanceGuaranteeFund(PT.PenjaminanInfrastrukturIndonesia)LandRevolvingFundandLandCappingLandFreezingandIndependentLandAppraisalProjectDevelopmentFacility–PDFtoimproveFSqualityGuidelinesofDoingBusinessinInfrastructureNotStartedStatusDoneOnGoingOnGoingOnGoingOnGoingOnGoingOnGoingOnGoingOnGoingOnGoingDoneDoneInfrastructureAllocationFund2010-201410/4/2023RptrillionEstimatedFundRequired(2010-2014)Rp1,429TRp978TRp451TGov.BudgetAllocationPrivateSector69%31%TotalPPPimplementationabilityprojectionRp.365.36Tn(USD34.8bn)Source:BappenasIndonesiaInfrastructureFundandGuaranteeFund10/4/20231.IndonesiaInfrastructureFund(PT.SaranaMultiInfrastruktur-PT.SMI)PT.SMIwasfoundedon23February2009;InitialcapitalisRp.1TrillionwhichisallocatedfromStateBudget,ADBandWBarewillingtoinjectUS$100MasLoanandUS$40MasEquity;DEGisgoingtoinjectUS$20M;IndonesiaInfrastructureFinancingFacility(IIFF)isstillunderdiscussionnowwithrelatedstakeholders2.GuaranteeFund(PT.PenjaminanInfrastrukturIndonesia-PT.PII)BasedonGov.RegulationNo.35/2009,GovernmentofIndonesiaallocatedRp1Trillionfrom2009StateBudgetasGovernmentInvestment;WorldBankagreestoprovidebackstopfacilityamountedtoRp.1.5Trillion.PT.PIIhasbeenlaunchedon30December2009.RpStrategicInfrastructure2010-201410/4/2023PublicPrivatePartnerships(PPP)Book10/4/20238Project18Project61Project3,094,00026,527,500TotalProjectTotalInvestment(US$000)87Project34,139,5004,518,000

ProjectsReadytoOfferTollRoad1.Medan–Binjai(USD129mio)2.Medan-Kualanamu-Tb.Tinggi(USD476mio)3.Cileunyi-Sumedang–Dawuan(USD395mio)SeaTransportaton4.TanahAmpoFerryTerminal,Karangasem(USD24mio)Railway5.Palaci–Bangkuang(USD740mio)6.SoekarnoHattaAirport-Manggarai(USD700mio)Water7.BandungMunicipalWaterSupply,Cimenteng(USD54mio)Electricity/Power8.CentralJavaPowerPlant(2000MW)(USD2Billion)ProjectReadytoOfferPriorityProjectPotentialProjectTOTALSource:BappenasTHANKYOU10/4/2023GlobalMacroeconomy10/4/2023Followingthedeepestglobaldownturninrecenthistory,economicgrowthsolidifiedinthesecondhalfof2009.Theworldoutputisexpectedtoreach4%in2010.Thisforecastrepresentsanupwardrevisionof¾percentagepointfromIMFpreviousWorldEconomicOutlookin2009.Globalproductionandtradebouncedbackinthesecondhalfof2009.Growthintheadvancedeconomiesisexpectedtoriseby2%in2010,whiletheoutputinemerginganddevelopingeconomiesisexpectedtoexpandby6%.Theseprojectionsreflectanupwardrevisionof¾percentagepointand1percentagepoint,respectively,frompreviousoutlookin2009.Non-restrictiveinvestmentregime.Availabilityoffiscalincentiveforforeigninvestors;Simplifiedinvestmentapprovalprocess;Non-restrictiverepatriationregime;Taxtreatieswithover50countries,incl.SouthKorea;Fewlimitationonthevalueofinvestments;andThepossibilityforforeigninvestorstowhollyormajorityowninvestmentsinmostsectors.TheCorruptionPerceptionIndexscorefrom1.07(2000)to2.06in(2008)*.Inthelast4years,theKPKhashandledmorethan550casesandhasbroughtmorethan1,400privateandgovernmentofficerstocourt.In2010nationalbudget,theGovernmenthasincludedaplantocontinueitsreformprogramsandtoimprovetheinvestmentclimateinIndonesia(incl.bureaucracyreforms,improvementsingovernance,businessprocessesandHRD,aswellastheintroductionoftaxandcustomsincentives).StablegovernmentwithprovencommitmenttoamarketeconomyThepoliticalwilltocarryoutthereformstobringaboutbetterinvestmentclimateandtoreducecorruptioniswellrecognizedbytheinternationalsocietyandbusinesscommunity.Indonesiahasmade“themostspectacularmovements”resultinginanine-rankjumpinitslatestCompetitivenessYearbookto42ndplacefrom2008’s51stposition(IMDleadingglobalbusinessschool)TheWorldBankreportontheeaseofdoingbusinessalsonotedamarkedimprovementinIndonesia’sbusinessclimateanditsstandardsofcorporategovernance.IndonesiahadsuccessfulpresidentialandlegislativeelectionsinAprilandJuly2009.Theincumbentregaineditspowerwith60%ofthevote,whilehispartyanditscoalitionsalsowontheparliamentaryelections,layingasolidfoundationforpoliticalandsocialstability

InvestmentandBusinessClimate10/4/2023*whereanindexof10isgiventoatotallycleancountry/governmentIndonesiaisnowfullyrecoveredfromthedamagingimpacts,andmoreopenforbusinessElectricityDemand10/4/2023NationalElectricityCompany,PLN,has40millioncustomers;20millionofwhicharefromthelower-incomebracket.Theaverageconsumptionofthisgroupis120kWhperday(approximatelyenoughtooperate1refrigerator,1TVand4lightbulbs).Itisestimatedthatonly41millionpeopleareservedbyelectricity,whilein2018itwillreach68.1millionpeopleorgrowinginaverageby2.7millionperyear.Thiswouldleadtoanimprovementintheelectrificationratiofrom64.8%in2008to95.5%in2018.Twocorridorschosenforfirstphaseimplementation10/4/20231.2007.2.2006Source:BCGanalysisNominatedcorridorsputthroughsequencingframeworkSequencingbasedonassessmentalongtwodimensions:TwocorridorsidentifiedforfirstphaseimplementationEconomicattractivenessSocio-economicattractivenessEasternSumatra-NorthWestJavaGDP:Rp1,026.8tn1

Population:45mn2

Corridorimpact3:GDPtodoubleby2020NorthernJavaGDP:Rp1,940tn1

Population:118mn2

Corridorimpact3:GDPtodoubleby20201stPhase:EasternSumatra-NorthWestJavaandNorthernJava2ndPhase:KalimantanandWesternSulawesi3rdPhase:PapuaandEastJava-Bali-NTMarketsizeFitwithsectorprioritiesNumberofhubslinkedAvailabilityoffactorsofproductionInvestmentriskFitwithexistingRPJPandspatialplanningEnvironmentalsustainabilityIncomeandgrowthdisparityNeedtoimproveinfrastructureRuraldevelopment12MedanPekanbaruJambiPalembangLampungSerangJakartaJakartaSemarangBandungSurabayaExample–ESNWJCorridor:CoalProductionLowerproductiondrivenbypoorinfrastructuremakinginlandlowerqualitycoalnotviable10/4/2023HighpotentialwithlargeresourceinSouthSumateraButproducesonly~20MnTofcoalannuallyDrivenby3keyreasonsThreekeyreasonsdrivingSumatera'scurrentlowproductionlevelsMostminesareinlandHightransportationcostbyroads/trucksmakethemineseconomicallyinfeasibleLowerqualityreservecomparedtoKalimantanRelativelylowerpricerealisationmakinginlandcoaleconomicallynotviableLackofrailinfrastructureMakestransportationcostlyforinlandlowqualitycoal,makingminingnotviable********Coalresources,2009(inBnT)**CoalproductioninIndonesia,2009(inMnT)*12350%49%1%X%%oftotalresourceinIndonesiaSumaterahasthepotentialtoachieveproductionlevels

similartothatinKalimantanSource:DirectorateGeneralMineral,CoalandGeothermalResources;IndonesiaCoalBook2008/2009;Literaturesearch;Expertinterviews;BCGanalysis45%2%2%1%Waterways,with1/4ththetransportationcostsasthatforroadshelpreducetransportationcostinKalimantan,makinginlandminingviableExample:ESNWJCorridorLoweringtransportationcoststhroughrailwaywouldbringmostresourcesinSumaterainthe'feasible'zone10/4/20232222101.Basedontransportationcostanalysis,regionsupto50kmsinlandconsideredaseconomicallyviable2.Distanceupto350-400kmsconsideredeconomicallyviablebyrailtransport3.Exactpathoftherailtobedeterminedinfeasibilitystudyphase.DistanceestimatedbasedonlocationinmapandcurrentPTBArailexpansionprojectof~300kmsSource:Expertint