固定收益深度报告：防风化债稳步推进城投债一二级市场有哪些新变化

内容目录一、政治局会议后，各省如何落实化债工作？ 31、争取建制县市试点、债务重组置换、资产盘活、平台整合与转型仍是重要化债方式 32、化解存量的同时严控新增隐性债务 53、哪些区域有望获得特殊再融资债额度？ 5二、化债工作逐步落实，城投债一二级量价指标明显改善 81、一级市场：城投债发行热度提升，净融资回暖 82、二级市场：交易活跃度提升，成交收益率下行，关注云南、河南、山东等地短久期债券投资价值 12风险提示 17图表目录图表1：政治局会议至今各省提到各类化债措施次数 3图表2：政治局会议提出“一揽子化债”后各省落实情况 4图表3：各地“严控新增债务”相关表述 5图表4：各省存量债券估值分布、加权平均估值、年到期压力、今明两年城投债付息与广义债务率 6图表5：特殊再融资债额度三种假设下对各省债务覆盖情况 7图表6：一些省份可能将较大额度特殊再融资债向省内高风险区域倾斜 7图表7：特殊再融资债额度不同假设下对各地市、园区债务覆盖情况 8图表8：各省城投债认购倍数变化 9图表9：8月认购倍数城投 9图表10：各省城投债净融资变化 10图表11：各省城投债加权平均票面利率变化 11图表12：各省城投债投标利率上限-票面利率变化 12图表13：各省分行政级别城投债成交规模 13图表14：各省城投债换手率变化 14图表15：各省城投债高估值成交占比变化 15图表16：各省城投债成交收益率变化 16图表17：各省城投债1Y以内信用利差变化（单位：BP） 17图表18：近期公告拟提前兑付的城投债 17一、政治局会议后，各省如何落实化债工作？12012544图表1：政治局会议至今各省提到各类化债措施次数（次） 债务重组置换 资产盘活 资产注入 化债基金 平台整合 债务转化 平台转型 争取建制县市试 湖 安 贵 云 苏 南 徽 州 南

江 广 浙 西 西 江

陕 辽 重 西 宁 庆

内河河海甘福蒙南北南肃建古来源：政府官网，DM，（注：债务重组置换包括银行贷款接续其他有息负债、延长债务期限、对接金融机构、降息等表述）823AMC50（续发82076省份日期省份日期地市区县化债措施归类江苏8/31连云港市灌云县通过压减一般性公共支出、盘活存量资金资产等方式提前筹措资金，确保债务风险总体可控。资产盘活8/30南通市通州区扎实推动融资平台公司压降和市场化转型。平台转型8/30无锡市滨湖区做大综合财力的同时更大力度盘活资产资源用于化债隐性债务合规转化加强与金融机构沟通协调置换8/29南通市海门区加大非标类、高成本债务置换力度，着力推进园区国企2A+及加快培育3A级信用等级国有企业，着力优化融资结构、降低融资成本。加快平台公司转型发展。转型8/21泰州市海陵区积极申报隐性债务风险化解试点。加强融资平台清理整合。整合8/19淮安市淮阴区积极清退置换存量高成本债务，加快融资平台整合压减和市场化转型。转型8/18盐城市-全面整合现有平台加快置换存量非标。置换7/26--推动融资平台公司整合撤并和市场化转型，落实扩大建制县区隐性债务化解试点工作。平台整合、债务置换云南9/4红河州-州政府同债权银行谈判争取债务延期、置换和重组。展期置换8/30临沧市-积极向上争取建制县试点化债政策支持，逐步置换压减高息债务。债务置换湖南8/30常德市桃源县4降息量高息债务降息方案。定期组织银企召开降息展期对接协调。债务置换8/22益阳市-推动平台公司关停并转，剥离平台公司政府融资职能。平台整合8/2怀化市-盘活加速。资产盘活7/31湘潭市-通过、结构性去杠杆、优化资产配置等举措，2023年力争实现“中长期银行资金占债务比重达到90，利率降到4”的目标。金融机构支持7/28衡阳市-通过优化企业短中长期债务比例，延长债务期限等方式来缓释债务风险；要求监管企业融资成本严格控制在规定范围内。展期置换天津8/10--积极加强与金融机构协调沟通，对高息债务开展“削峰”管理，依法合规做好债务缓释，优化期限结构、降低利息负担。展期置换贵州8/4--推进国有投融资平台公司实体化市场化转型，推动国有企业聚焦主责主业进行战略性重组和专业化整合。平台整合、平台转型7/24--债券置换、资产证券化量非经营性资产。债务置换、资产盘活广西8/4南宁市-积极推动将符合条件存量项目债务转化为企业经营性债务有序推动融资平台公司市场化转型。转型8/2柳州市-通过无偿划拨、资本注入等方式划入国有企业，增强国有企业盈利能力、融资造血能力，助推我市国有企业高质量发展。资产注入山东8/30潍坊市寿光市全力争取建制县债务置换试点。利用好国家政策契机，优化政府债务结构，加强政策对接，切实防范系统性风险。债务置换8/30济南市-财金集团与保险资金1:1资产管理公司结合，成立7:3的平层债务缓解基金。化债基金8/18青岛市-青岛市国资委成立青岛东鼎产业发展集团有限公司，东鼎产业集团将成为青岛市最大的政府债务平滑纾困平台，为青岛市各区政府债务提供资金流动性和融资支持。纾困平台8/4潍坊市-山东省政府将通过两只省级稳定化险基金、专项债倾斜、省市国有企业合作等举措，实现“以长换短、以新换旧、以低换高”。化债基金重庆8/23--有力协调帮扶重点困难企业续贷增贷，大型重点问题企业债务风险全部管控到位，全市高风险银行实现“清零”。金融机构支持陕西8/28延安市-加快拖欠账款偿还进度，全力防范化解债务风险。清理拖欠款8/24西安市-5020区域稳定发展基金国有一级平台公司到期债务转换（续发）提供短期流动性支持。化债基金8/22渭南市-整合升级合阳、潼关、大荔、富平、蒲城等县级平台公司。平台整合甘肃7/26天水市-积极对接金融机构和商业银行全力做好债务展期。展期置换浙江8/10杭州市通过盘活存量资产、做强经营性业务等方式，助推融资平台公司市场化转型，有效防范化解地方政府性债务风险。置换四川8/3--支持政府融资平台依法依规推进市场化转型，打造竞争力强的地方投资运营主体。鼓励按市场化方式设立城镇化发展基金。平台转型7/24成都市-要持续强化风险防控，加强资产负债率刚性约束，有序推进债务置换，严控重大债务风险，加快推动非主责主业大宗贸易的清理退出。债务置换内蒙古8/10--积极通过找矿、土地指标交易等方式增资增收，积极稳妥、有力有序化解存量债务。资产盘活辽宁8/24沈阳市-积极争取国家新一轮建制县隐性债务化解试点。债务置换8/14大连市-强化与国开行等银行沟通协调，采取展期置换等方式极大缓释市县财政支出压力。展期置换江西8/29南昌市-加快盘活存量资产、回笼资金闲置资产。资产盘活8/10--积极统筹协调金融支持地方债务风险化解。金融机构支持8/2萍乡市-优化整合相关资金，设立债券风险缓释基金，防范市县城投债务风险。化债基金河南8/28郑州市-44881省管企业郑煤集团，形成了“8+1+8”差异化发展格局。平台整合河北8/30-着力促改革，加快构建现代企业制度，持续推进战略性重组、专业化整合。平台整合海南8/18海口市-国开行总行目前正在积极研究相应化债产品，后续将利用相关政策及金融产品，支持海口市妥善化解存量政府性债务。债务置换福建7/25--指导有关地区做好隐性债务风险化解试点申报和评审工作，积极争取财政部化债额度支持。债务置换安徽8/30淮南市-积极争取司。支持推动市建发、产发、交控集团等做实做优做强、分类转型发展。债务置换、资产盘活、平台转型8/8铜陵市-推动市属、县区属国有企业整合、重组，优化市国控集团，助力文投公司向文旅产业综合投资运营商转型等，做大做强国有投融资平台。平台整合来源：政府官网，DM，2、化解存量的同时严控新增隐性债务828图表3：各地“严控新增债务”相关表述日期省份地市区县内容2023/9/5湖北孝感市-规范政府融资举债行为，打破政府兜底预期，加大违法违规举债查处力度。涉及增加财政支出的重大政策和实施重大政府投资项目前，进行财政承受能力评估。2023/8/23安徽阜阳市-对于采取政府和社会资本合作（PPP）模式实施的项目，应当符合国家及省、市相关规定，不得新增政府隐性债务。2023/8/22湖南益阳市-严控新增隐性债务，不乱铺摊子、乱上项目，不高额负债搞建设，严格落实政府举债终身问责和债务问题倒查机制。2023/8/11重庆--完善投资管理，做细投资备案、风险、过程和绩效管理。2023/8/10天津--严格政府投资项目立项审批，资金未落实的一律不予立项，严厉整治项目超概算、超工期、超标准现象。2023/8/10内蒙古--要坚持有多大财力办多大事，决不允许寅吃卯粮、再增新的债务。2023/8/8云南--严控高风险地区新增债务规模，防止新增隐性债务风险；妥善防范城投债风险，坚决守住不发生区域性、系统性风险底线。2023/7/28山东潍坊市潍城区规范举债审批程序，科学确定投资规模，有效控制融资成本，坚决打好债务风险管控保卫战。来源：政府官网，DM，3、哪些区域有望获得特殊再融资债额度？ECDGBF1000A图表4：各省存量债券估值分布、加权平均估值、今年到期压力、今明两年城投债付息与广义债务率省份各估值区间存量债规模加权平均估值今年到期压力今明两年城投债付息广义债务率[2,3)[3,4)[4,5)[5,6)≥6到期回售合计青海117.1011.7418.000.0018.0014.70204.03%贵州199.15316.2973.7197.261,813.729.5894.94120.18215.12138.38390.61%云南26.0073.9052.60433.181,186.047.72536.30112.09648.3956.22454.03%广西462.83699.88286.88214.801,049.456.21236.10231.40467.50153.61399.16%宁夏51.3013.0020.0022.40106.905.7915.7033.8049.5011.90185.10%辽宁20.0038.5016.2093.7985.245.5122.804.0026.8015.70235.32%黑龙江11.0045.7072.5053.05119.525.3519.006.0025.0024.53187.80%吉林160.00231.80235.90214.44284.104.94137.5067.00204.5062.64333.49%天津1,119.081,015.65360.45609.401,017.124.691,275.36165.651,441.0093.68744.24%山东3,335.974,613.591,886.941,258.682,458.534.491,149.63752.511,902.14 626.21362.55%重庆1,382.272,096.631,331.52684.591,427.324.48346.41342.61689.02 350.77489.05%陕西814.581,070.10646.03411.20544.554.42328.53187.85516.38162.90331.08%甘肃85.00251.00123.8054.6056.894.1453.1037.0090.1017.84345.11%四川3,123.513,351.421,818.30730.971,435.644.07508.75533.371,042.12 510.41368.11%湖南2,165.533,017.381,708.00739.49802.744.04561.94494.491,056.43 342.58372.85%河南1,436.152,318.951,483.67667.04292.213.91459.82301.80761.62252.78316.63%河北774.60674.10267.2092.20209.843.73127.42112.40239.8285.57270.75%山西500.42565.50170.98114.10115.753.73100.6073.00173.6066.00152.78%江西2,309.872,355.621,055.47532.44423.953.71543.35281.83825.18245.46366.64%湖北2,314.023,154.831,172.14453.01234.863.58523.08335.06858.14 292.32384.07%内蒙古64.4020.505.0010.007.353.445.500.005.507.51181.15%新疆623.90642.13233.1227.7972.393.4083.70103.62187.3267.96243.17%西藏42.47201.489.003.367.4812.0019.4812.4947.68%安徽2,329.932,565.59677.70170.3796.953.34343.69166.86510.55218.49304.04%海南44.99102.002.003.240.000.000.007.10184.26%浙江7,930.1310,984.251,726.8566.2237.803.191,412.701,043.542,456.24 795.36397.76%江苏15,184.4912,261.502,184.00819.12466.323.183,092.511,284.234,376.751,038.94443.50%福建2,423.662,173.87238.7023.0417.403.04342.55131.00473.55179.56348.53%北京1,701.74916.3233.4023.002.85321.66131.90453.56103.24255.49%广东3,674.951,874.69151.802.82610.60147.70758.30187.12222.43%上海1,879.95646.782.79153.9296.00249.9285.65120.77%来源：，（注：时间截至8月31日）80010007ABF1500EDF6995亿元时，各省年内到期债券均可被完全覆盖，或将有效缓释短期债务风险。图表5：特殊再融资债额度三种假设下对各省债务覆盖情况假设省份高收益债余额今明两年城投债付息今年到期回售800亿元省份A1.474.911.55省份B3.412.740.93省份C0.6714.231.23省份D0.798.540.56省份E0.445.783.72省份F1.002.340.76省份G0.562.281.161000亿元省份A1.846.141.94省份B4.263.421.17省份C0.8417.791.54省份D0.9810.670.69省份E0.557.234.65省份F1.252.920.95省份G0.702.851.451500亿元省份A2.759.212.90省份B6.395.131.75省份C1.2626.682.31省份D1.4716.011.04省份E0.8310.846.97省份F1.874.381.42省份G1.054.282.18来源：，（注：估值不低于6的债券为高收益债）CDCFBHCB各估值区间存量债规模加权平均估今年到期压力今明两年城投区域各估值区间存量债规模加权平均估今年到期压力今明两年城投区域[2,3)[3,4) [4,5) [5,6)≥6值（%）到期回售合计债付息园区A5.50197.00143.6086.005.3167.0016.1083.10 21.14园区B5.3041.20128.108.7440.6513.0053.6511.76园区C55.00337.00332.3038.8520.004.06135.0030.00165.00 21.78地市A119.80211.90250.48112.465.1966.3043.26109.56 25.45地市B391.04601.02169.7139.5014.203.43147.32105.15252.4743.75地市C3.5020.00753.389.81141.7749.39191.16 26.17地市D7.3047.1824.10132.977.8916.5013.0029.5012.94来源：，

8010030080CB100AB78。CDACD400ABAB40753，400图表7：特殊再融资债额度不同假设下对各地市、园区债务覆盖情况假设园区高收益债余额今明两年城投债付息今年到期回售80亿元园区A0.933.780.96园区B0.626.801.49园区C4.003.670.48100亿元园区A1.164.731.20园区B0.788.501.86园区C5.004.590.61300亿元园区A3.4914.193.61园区B2.3425.505.59园区C15.0013.771.82假设地市高收益债余额今明两年城投债付息今年到期回售100亿元地市A0.893.930.91地市B7.042.290.40400亿元地市C0.5315.282.09地市D3.0130.9113.56来源：，（注：估值不低于6的债券为高收益债）二、化债工作逐步落实，城投债一二级量价指标明显改善71、一级市场：城投债发行热度提升，净融资回暖潜在置换利好下机构普遍加大下沉尺度，兼具票息与流动性的津城建短债认购情绪火爆，816-1770278714广西等债务压力较重区域城投债认购倍数相较于7月最后一周均有显著提升。图表8：各省城投债认购倍数变化省份周度认购倍数月度认购倍数7/308/68/138/208/279/3走势23-0723-08环比变化天津0.821.349.2426.7918.656.440.8915.1114.21吉林1.012.733.280.932.341.41贵州1.001.912.182.551.122.251.13上海1.070.604.831.082.751.002.041.04北京0.562.172.202.471.492.350.86安徽1.784.172.525.423.952.953.790.84陕西0.231.007.442.902.122.362.102.900.80重庆2.052.825.072.182.502.223.010.78河南2.113.902.882.223.881.712.122.880.76浙江2.314.182.184.892.222.442.473.120.65山东1.441.725.221.671.921.791.622.150.53湖南3.422.316.122.242.471.892.963.380.41云南0.341.000.790.901.481.070.601.000.40广西0.312.651.461.151.951.191.480.29新疆3.582.042.453.512.272.853.010.17湖北3.053.083.118.142.062.112.792.920.13广东1.452.111.682.780.360.301.071.170.10江苏1.852.092.252.483.101.522.332.370.04山西1.961.861.371.641.56-0.08四川2.622.803.122.813.122.163.002.81-0.18福建1.893.093.322.071.352.572.15-0.42江西3.300.372.871.321.753.142.651.81-0.83河北5.141.851.022.163.411.86-1.55甘肃1.982.211.381.94海南1.951.95黑龙江2.202.20辽宁3.683.68内蒙古1.322.021.67宁夏1.001.00青海西藏来源：，

top2085644624与23倍。滨海建投7月认购倍数不足1倍，8月显著增长至22倍。图表9：8月认购倍数top20城投主体省份2023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-08天津市武清区国有资产经营投资有限公司天津市1.001.001.001.001.1064.29 嘉善经济技术开发区实业有限公司浙江省1.4846.34青岛市北城市发展集团有限公司山东省2.823.5223.55天津城市基础设施建设投资集团有限公司天津市1.001.001.021.031.091.000.6822.95天津滨海新区建设投资集团有限公司天津市1.001.001.001.001.000.7121.89建湖县城市建设投资集团有限公司江苏省1.5721.00孝感市高创投资有限公司湖北省2.422.1320.26泰州鑫泰集团有限公司江苏省1.1419.28株洲市城市建设发展集团有限公司湖南省1.814.812.513.7115.08咸阳市城市建设投资控股集团有限公司陕西省2.392.8914.28重庆共享工业投资有限公司重庆市1.281.683.5713.50天津经济技术开发区国有资产经营有限公司天津市1.011.0011.50淮北市建投控股集团有限公司安徽省2.293.013.221.923.6711.15天津津南城市建设投资有限公司天津市1.001.009.97天津武清经济技术开发区有限公司天津市1.001.001.211.637.77镇江新区城市建设投资有限公司江苏省7.58苏州高新区枫桥工业园有限公司江苏省7.40天津轨道交通集团有限公司天津市1.441.001.821.731.486.98天津市地下铁道集团有限公司天津市2.262.981.716.78成都成华旧城改造投资有限责任公司四川省6.24来源：，

88图表10：各省城投债净融资变化省份 周度净融资（亿元） 月度净融资（亿元）7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 23-07 23-08 环比变化同比变化江苏 204.29 90.38 58.06 71.55 42.25 15.61 116.55 406.01 185.08 289.46湖南 -20.20 51.85 59.95 -17.90 15.66 0.44 -29.80 150.80 129.94 180.60山东 26.52 73.38 53.27 -0.85 111.58 63.49 47.36 315.69 126.96 268.33重庆云南四川天津甘肃河南广西新疆湖北内蒙古上海陕西辽宁黑龙江海南青海西藏宁夏河北广东江西吉林安徽山西贵州北京福建浙江

12.1193.7518.532.473.93-22.55-3.0016.008.50-6.70-8.45-5.005.60-7.006.207.1520.0029.574.00-3.2825.50-7.4429.06

-57.907.8519.2833.2412.007.30-11.22-9.402.206.00-3.5020.5014.47-5.40-31.00-6.000.07-18.20-3.11-63.57

79.392.8141.44-9.70-17.61-8.337.702.007.00-5.00-3.0037.9036.1936.404.00-44.50-4.7021.70

26.5925.0034.7924.702.5011.6137.4423.00-5.373.001.0029.40-0.8627.507.90-5.8065.49-4.6010.00-3.8546.0423.42

63.1762.7122.5020.0047.3034.6082.9519.0038.00-7.9033.306.994.903.607.00-0.2745.00-9.05-30.47

16.3372.308.9339.977.0036.21-7.3051.805.006.40-3.0026.854.6035.004.76-6.0019.89

-74.62-14.6229.850.00-35.1125.4315.27-3.0029.68-21.10-16.50-15.950.00-5.000.005.6037.6323.30-30.50-8.5052.7015.00-16.7939.3043.31138.34

182.3134.84152.5083.9222.60121.9519.1959.60115.585.0013.0035.003.344.403.000.000.00-3.5020.1535.2189.1924.9035.76-15.68-41.76-3.3514.4843.77

110.0479.6076.6166.1662.1548.4346.0837.2533.6422.8018.5515.5510.207.813.003.000.00-3.50-5.55-13.35-20.92-32.10-42.42-48.30-49.24-54.15-70.55-196.14

80.81109.46167.1254.0722.6011.7154.3034.17100.318.00-16.6856.1019.8420.353.005.000.00-9.10-17.4811.91119.6933.40-16.94-30.68-24.97-42.65-28.83-94.57来源：，

62.33pct、1.88pct1.59pct。83.76，4.097一周，云南发行成本略降，而贵州与广西有所提升。图表11：各省城投债加权平均票面利率变化省份周度加权平均票面利率()月度加权平均票面利率()7/308/68/138/208/279/3走势23-0723-08环比变化辽宁7.002.646.604.28-2.33天津6.625.736.125.303.764.096.634.76-1.88黑龙江6.905.604.416.905.31-1.59宁夏7.506.907.506.90-0.60陕西4.605.724.003.394.264.604.524.10-0.42湖南4.354.444.043.764.273.964.364.04-0.32浙江3.333.463.033.003.093.203.433.13-0.30重庆4.276.004.484.943.853.884.534.23-0.30广西4.243.873.183.547.424.834.484.21-0.27江苏3.673.143.223.263.233.363.493.24-0.25新疆4.582.664.173.713.583.723.783.55-0.23云南6.357.226.686.055.726.196.476.25-0.22贵州4.603.343.483.275.194.484.26-0.22湖北3.404.233.684.063.893.313.993.80-0.19江西3.325.313.883.383.684.103.973.78-0.18上海2.482.302.652.192.562.532.36-0.17福建3.663.133.933.423.142.423.423.30-0.12河南3.943.464.344.484.374.144.314.22-0.10广东3.292.953.033.082.792.913.022.93-0.09山东4.284.064.593.984.594.824.534.46-0.07山西3.503.395.703.504.234.184.310.13北京2.553.902.993.032.923.120.20四川3.873.653.653.734.293.563.683.920.24安徽3.143.953.653.193.854.283.503.740.24河北2.754.445.875.474.085.101.02吉林4.266.753.586.214.815.831.03甘肃4.793.953.834.17海南4.034.03内蒙古3.683.523.60来源：，

80.95，70.87pct，连续3周突破1。贵州投标上限-票面利率增幅位居全国第二名，为0.39pct。云南城投债认购热情欠佳，政治局会议召开后连续4周按投标利率上限发行。图表12：各省城投债投标利率上限-票面利率变化省份周度投标上限-票面利率()月度投标上限-票面利率()7/308/68/138/208/279/3走势23-0723-08环比变化天津0.070.140.311.131.261.130.080.950.87贵州0.000.260.620.330.350.010.390.39吉林0.240.050.820.500.120.470.35重庆0.520.590.890.800.900.490.740.26河南0.520.640.700.851.070.450.540.750.21江西0.380.000.550.360.640.920.360.560.20安徽0.280.750.600.671.340.310.520.700.18山东0.590.400.520.530.690.570.380.530.15四川0.490.510.380.730.660.490.440.580.14北京0.000.280.500.530.340.470.12湖北0.470.710.681.240.590.570.560.680.12广东0.260.370.540.590.000.340.300.360.06山西0.400.490.500.430.380.420.04新疆0.500.551.030.730.680.610.640.680.04江苏0.380.270.320.440.580.330.390.410.01福建0.460.040.690.590.240.280.330.340.01云南0.000.000.000.000.220.120.040.050.01湖南1.170.330.860.720.650.770.720.70-0.02浙江0.370.480.500.410.370.450.500.44-0.06河北0.750.440.000.750.530.47-0.06广西0.230.510.170.090.440.390.28-0.11上海0.300.000.650.040.450.360.24-0.12陕西0.000.000.800.330.460.020.620.40-0.22甘肃0.400.390.090.27海南0.320.32黑龙江1.000.501.00辽宁0.560.56内蒙古0.220.380.30宁夏0.000.00来源：，2、二级市场：交易活跃度提升，成交收益率下行，关注云南、河南、山东等地短久期债券投资价值71422513611004066597349亿元降至上周的268亿元。图表13：各省分行政级别城投债成交规模省份 省级 地市级 区县级7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3安徽北京福建甘肃广东广西贵州海南河北河南黑龙江湖北湖南吉林江苏江西辽宁内蒙古宁夏青海山东山西陕西上海四川天津西藏新疆云南浙江重庆

1973813540122121903737924650000291124105714201241434

2158596308353802819162629001038141074628203202023

1655118122611464504724132547054039157103925900541616

325496452182423038381650390121051132784432101321313

4426910766204142405119105225010056194542036104631540

1656329217146166805027162829010074131042425101762628

11608711453016046120089111133071681010816016170960520331380

100069110243230641271115107143281571018412234150890621451380

10307131023922159143011513593751470093199252601340429401310

119077111538111491431153143124111840093180292101250221401420

118010721133821142136711012584221761128316622510850819651190

920750934929052141151471471540119450126167253301150514431150

20493301007023401133030417000018301211159045349117

134619026011014501947033221100019401238117033313111

15303809090022031440297280000191031210222065307117

17262901009023702057030025000019301118912085286156

173331014025003601551031332000024802911740033255213

142443010080234028390344262000249151310049063268176来源：，

8710pct12.349.76手率小幅提升，810。图表14：各省城投债换手率变化省份 周度换手率 月度换手率7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 7月 8月 环比变化天津 5.48% 8.75% 8.39% 10.24% 12.34% 9.76% 26.37% 45.29% 18.91%宁夏 3.73% 7.58% 5.25% 3.55% 11.92% 4.94% 15.48% 31.72% 16.24%内蒙古 0.00% 0.00% 4.71% 11.49% 2.00% 0.76% 2.77% 18.41% 15.64%云南 3.81% 4.13% 5.86% 4.49% 7.92% 6.91% 14.59% 26.31% 11.72%海南 1.19% 2.23% 4.93% 2.39% 3.41% 4.56% 8.18% 16.67% 8.49%黑龙江 0.07% 0.34% 0.07% 0.44% 2.30% 4.95% 1.38% 7.95% 6.56%重庆 3.15% 2.86% 3.44% 3.60% 4.66% 3.70% 12.85% 16.75% 3.90%广西 2.66% 2.75% 2.53% 3.40% 3.97% 2.54% 10.04% 13.92% 3.88%河南 3.51% 3.91% 4.31% 4.13% 4.70% 4.77% 16.47% 19.90% 3.42%山西 1.95% 3.45% 2.89% 3.09% 3.07% 2.82% 11.68% 14.31% 2.64%山东 3.37% 3.17% 4.02% 4.05% 4.00% 4.34% 15.39% 17.76% 2.37%贵州 1.83% 2.00% 2.19% 1.97% 3.06% 2.70% 8.88% 11.17% 2.29%北京 4.63% 4.08% 3.53% 3.28% 2.39% 3.17% 13.20% 15.16% 1.97%湖南 2.50% 2.61% 2.92% 3.29% 2.83% 2.98% 11.72% 13.60% 1.87%湖北 2.45% 2.67% 3.42% 3.42% 3.04% 3.56% 13.17% 14.94% 1.77%辽宁 0.49% 0.72% 0.24% 0.02% 0.49% 3.14% 1.03% 2.48% 1.44%江苏 2.88% 3.11% 3.06% 3.35% 3.36% 3.23% 13.43% 14.81% 1.37%四川 2.84% 2.45% 3.08% 2.84% 2.57% 2.63% 11.78% 12.59% 0.81%陕西 4.60% 2.58% 3.04% 3.27% 5.33% 4.60% 16.65% 17.44% 0.78%福建 3.22% 2.34% 2.88% 2.62% 3.41% 3.04% 12.79% 13.53% 0.75%安徽 3.35% 2.88% 3.05% 3.36% 3.49% 2.67% 14.57% 14.41% -0.16%吉林 2.02% 2.75% 2.15% 2.65% 1.82% 2.84% 11.80% 11.43% -0.37%新疆 2.24% 2.48% 2.84% 2.74% 2.80% 2.52% 13.03% 12.13% -0.90%浙江 2.75% 2.60% 2.52% 2.37% 2.23% 2.26% 12.11% 11.00% -1.11%江西 4.06% 3.53% 3.62% 4.11% 3.85% 3.94% 18.92% 17.20% -1.72%河北 3.41% 3.74% 3.39% 2.85% 2.97% 3.82% 17.04% 14.97% -2.07%上海 2.90% 3.14% 2.15% 2.76% 2.38% 1.53% 13.15% 10.82% -2.33%广东 3.65% 2.95% 2.84% 3.43% 3.20% 2.35% 16.68% 13.64% -3.04%甘肃 2.54% 1.90% 2.00% 1.35% 2.06% 5.08% 15.11% 11.58% -3.53%西藏 2.04% 2.36% 1.63% 0.76% 3.24% 1.81% 12.54% 8.64% -3.90%青海 7.12% 3.53% 2.22% 2.08% 2.68% 5.59% 23.51% 13.19% -10.32%来源：，

86.12，715pct。8101.76pct、3.19pct。图表15：各省城投债高估值成交占比变化省份周度高估值成交占比月度高估值成交占比7/308/68/138/208/279/3走势23-0723-08环比变化内蒙古0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%11.59%0.00%-11.59%海南46.61%35.82%0.67%1.39%20.76%0.20%14.89%9.66%-5.23%云南21.29%18.93%13.98%17.06%18.25%6.12%19.22%14.66%-4.56%天津12.08%4.56%5.36%11.70%10.05%10.26%12.48%8.75%-3.74%湖北15.70%14.25%16.30%11.75%13.31%15.29%16.07%14.01%-2.07%河北20.13%12.76%20.46%21.52%30.92%22.90%23.14%21.12%-2.02%四川34.69%24.85%27.26%26.24%33.17%30.60%29.53%28.33%-1.20%陕西35.11%17.21%24.17%22.19%18.85%28.13%22.99%21.94%-1.05%新疆20.66%13.38%26.04%26.74%17.20%7.93%19.88%19.10%-0.79%广东5.61%3.63%4.16%5.36%9.13%13.49%7.05%6.70%-0.35%湖南20.95%21.24%26.22%19.24%30.56%25.96%24.56%24.69%0.12%上海5.91%7.39%7.47%6.11%9.40%15.78%8.53%8.82%0.29%浙江19.04%16.76%16.58%14.98%21.37%23.19%17.64%18.18%0.53%江苏12.21%13.86%14.40%14.56%11.81%12.74%12.12%13.35%1.23%贵州10.76%12.44%17.02%19.68%14.71%14.27%13.59%15.34%1.76%安徽11.74%18.96%20.20%16.43%12.36%15.46%14.71%16.69%1.98%山西11.61%11.13%16.75%17.70%11.77%12.41%11.70%13.87%2.17%山东18.82%19.59%17.67%13.96%17.75%19.85%15.20%17.53%2.32%重庆17.73%31.95%18.32%23.68%28.20%26.03%23.23%25.58%2.35%福建10.34%14.85%11.59%12.10%10.89%7.42%8.48%11.38%2.91%广西10.97%11.53%13.45%9.37%8.96%22.89%9.43%12.62%3.19%北京16.37%11.24%19.16%26.15%18.11%13.17%14.48%18.22%3.73%青海1.24%16.32%5.47%0.00%5.76%45.64%17.33%21.86%4.53%河南18.34%16.80%18.75%22.58%27.45%24.40%17.68%22.65%4.98%江西19.37%25.46%21.68%24.72%26.01%21.66%17.81%24.36%6.56%甘肃0.24%10.37%44.39%13.86%15.68%1.79%4.81%14.04%9.22%吉林8.63%24.92%26.96%30.98%43.16%19.34%13.82%28.39%14.57%西藏3.92%15.16%48.84%15.26%58.00%43.80%18.84%44.42%25.58%宁夏20.37%21.64%12.91%58.00%57.14%70.38%5.89%43.97%38.08%黑龙江0.00%100.00%0.19%72.14%41.53%88.29%24.48%73.72%49.24%辽宁0.00%55.17%0.00%0.00%0.54%97.72%0.00%56.21%56.21%来源：，

888bp80bp、80bp75bp51028bp13bp。图表16：各省城投债成交收益率变化周度加权平均成交收益率 月度加权平均收益率省份辽宁天津贵州甘肃云南吉林内蒙古河北新疆安徽河南福建重庆江苏上海浙江海南山西北京西藏广东湖南四川湖北山东陕西江西广西青海宁夏黑龙江

7/307.376.4711.545.509.366.454.504.08