中国NETCOM经营计划英文

CHINA

NETCOM

BUSINESS

PLAN

UPDATEChina

Netcom-The

Boston

Consulting

Group--Confidential--Destroy

by

Shredding---

1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIDecember14,1999

-

BeijingTODAY’S

OBJECTIVESChina

Netcom-The

Boston

Consulting

Group--Confidential--Destroy

by

Shredding---

1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIReview

the

overall

analysis

ofregulation,

competition,

and

market

developmentDiscuss

the

specific

implications

for

CNC

strategyReview

the

specific

draft

business

models

for

CNCHow

we

might

attack

the

business,

carrier,

and

IDD/DLD

marketsWhat

key

trade-offs

we

need

to

makeWhat

are

the

key

success

factors

and

assumptions?Discuss

the

initial

economics

of

these

business

models,

and

of

CNC

overallDiscuss

the

specific

next

steps

in

two

key

areas:How

to

finalize

and

endorse

the

overall

CNC

business

model

How

to

move

forward

with

the

refined

financials,

organization

design,and

the

plan

for

implementationCONTENTChina

Netcom-The

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Consulting

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIKey

strategic

principlesRegulatory

overviewMarket

overviewCompetition

overviewBusiness

modelsNext

stepsKEY

CNC

STRATEGIC

PRINCIPLESChina

Netcom-The

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by

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIThe

objective

of

these

principles

is

to

provide

further

clarity

in

the

development

andevaluation

of

theCNC

business

modelThese

will

be

revisited

andrefinedasthe

projectprogresses

Our

development

of

business

models

will

seek

to

be

aligned

with

theprinciplesStrategic

principles

and

key

assumptions

will

be

considered

in

the

following

aspectsCNCshareholdersBackbone

businessLocal

access

businessInternational

gateway

businessRegulatory

strategyCompetitive

strategyMarketingstrategyCNC

SHAREHOLDERSChina

Netcom-The

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIPrinciples:

Leverage

shareholders’concerted

vision

in

creating

a

new

generation

IP

broadbandcommunication

infrastructure

and

a

profitable,

successful

company

Leverage

shareholders’existing

backbone

assets,

local

access

assets,

research

capabilitiesand

local

government

relationships

to

secure

time-to-market

and

create

competitive

advantage

Set

a

model

of

a

new

type

of

“SOE”,

as

efficient

as

the

best

of

the

FIE/private

companies;

beatshareholders’

expectations

by

delivering

high

returnAssumptions:

CAS:

strong

interest

in

seeing

CNC

successful

and

profitable

quickly,

stands

ready

forfavorableregulatoryinfluence

and

research

support;

wants

opportunitiesfor

networking

R&DMOR

and

SARFT:

extensive

backbone

and

access

assets

and

ROWmain

focus

onusingMOR

for

right

of

way,

helping

them

participate

in

telecomwill

not

use

SARFT

local

CATV

inthe

near

term,

but

they

are

a

key

user

ofthebackbone·

Leverage

CATV’s

city

backbone

MOR

will

continue

to

favor

CNC

over

Unicom,

provided

CNC

meets

theexpectation

as

aprofit

center

for

MOR

Shanghai

MunicipalGov"t:

Eager

to

make

Shanghai

as

China’s

test

ground

for

building

high-tech

infrastructure

(e.g.theintegration

of

telecom,

CATV,

Internet)in

particular,

testing

HFC

to

deliver

broadband

internetone

issue:

SPT

and

ATT

JV;

how

to

handle?BACKBONE

BUSINESSChina

Netcom-The

Boston

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIPrinciples:

Target

advanced

backbone

among

15

key

cities

in

Eastern

China;

start

with

2cores

from

shareholders

but

quicklybuildown

networkUse

backbone

for

a

variety

of

wholesale

and

retail

voice

and

data

services

Maintain

the

leading

edge

IP/packet

network,

both

fortechnological

superiorityand

to

fulfill

shareholder

missionMaintain

the

best

cost

position,

using

ROWs,

purchasing

clout,

right

technologyBuild

reservecapacity/conduitto

deter

othersAssumptions:The

costs

of

construction

and

ROW

will

be

the

majority

of

new

network

costsvirtually

all

of

the

network

will

use

MOR

or

SARFT

right

of

wayNetwork

will

be

IP

or

packet

in

natureDeployment

plan

will

keepcosts

low,buildout

quickly,

and

creategood

positionlaylarge

number

of

conduits

in

one

timelater

fill,

light

up,

and

color

fiber

strandslease

out

conduit/fiber/bandwidth

to

maximize

return

(utilization)LOCAL

ACCESS

BUSINESSChina

Netcom-The

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIPrinciples:Bevery

focused

in

local

deployment,

targeting

priority

business

areas

onlyEmphasize

broadband

to

the

customer,

using

FTTB

and

LMDS

where

logicalSeek

stronglocal

market

share,

especially

innew

data

services

growth

areasDifferentiate

from

China

Telecom

by

superior

services,quality,

responsivenessBuild

strong

local

team

to

enable

fast

service

responseEmphasize

“end

to

end”

network

ownership

and

managementAssumptions:SH,

BJ,

GZ,

and

SZ

business

districtsas

targetsforthe

near

termThese

account

for

the

vast

majority

of

business

telecom

demandNeed

to

set

specific

estimates

for

timing

and

sequence

of

deploymentAssume

that

CNC

will

have

access

to

key

city

ROW,

such

as

subwaysystemsWill

need

specific

assumptions

about

the

ease

and

cost

of

hooking

up

buildings

Assumethat

primary

emphasis

will

be

on

FTTB,

but

that

LMDS

can

play

animportant

role,

especially

in

initial

deployment

and

in

secondary

citiesWill

need

specific

assumptions

about

timing

of

adding

secondary

citiesINTERNATIONAL

GATEWAY

BUSINESSChina

Netcom-The

Boston

Consulting

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIPrinciples:CNC

will

be

one

of

few

players

with

a

full

international

license

Vital

to

enable

CNC

to

provide

end-to-end

services,global

data

services,

andhigher

margin

IDD

serviceHK

gateway

link

may

be

strategically

importantAssumptions:HK

as

one

of

the

key

location

for

international

connectiona

major

traffic

destinationa

major

relay

locationInternational

voice

remains

highly

profitable

segment

in

medium

term

futureExpect

high

growth

together

with

steep

price

drop

in

international

servicesActively

plan

ahead

for

joining

international

sub-oceanic

cable

consortiumREGULATORY

STRATEGYChina

Netcom-The

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Consulting

Group--Confidential--Destroy

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIPrinciples:Must

actively

lobby

for

favorable

regulatory

decisions,

together

with

shareholdersprovide

regulators

with

international

benchmarking

for

best

practicesalign

CNC

objectives

with

fair

competition,

and

public

interestshave

effective

senior

management

focus

on

lobbying

issuesBe

careful

about

committing

investment

if

regulatory

issues

too

uncertainEnsure

CNC

strategy

addresses

national

economic

development

prioritiesPay

careful

attention

to

managing

relations

with

China

TelecomExpected

WTO

in

2000

will

imply

greater

opening

of

the

market

in

the

futureAssumptions:At

least

a

2-3yearwindow

when

CNC

can

continue

to

enjoy

favorable

policy

treatment,

while

alsoworking

tostraighten

out

regulatory

issues

at

local

levelMany

keyregulations

remain

in

grey

areas,

where

CNC

canplaya

role

in

shaping

the

policyWill

need

to

make

specific

assumptions

on

a

number

of

regulatory

issues,

and

developseveralscenariosAssume

that

CT

and

Unicomare

the

only

full

service

competitors,

but

several

nicheplayersWTO

will

introduce

FDIinto

China’s

telecom

market

by

2021,

butinfrastructureplay

remain

tightlycontrolled

(still

limited

competition)

until

2021/5may

be

opportunity

for

some

form

of

partnership

with

foreign

telcosCOMPETITIVE

STRATEGYChina

Netcom-The

Boston

Consulting

Group--Confidential--Destroy

by

Shredding---

1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIPrinciples:

Focus

on

the

best

service

quality,

supply

what

customers’

need,

avoid

competingon

priceBuild

both

“highways”

and

“tollbooths”Prepare

for

rapidly

changing

industry

structureBe

careful

in

positioning

toward

China

Telecom:complementary

and

addressing

unmet

needsgrowing

the

whole

marketThe

only

viable

alternative

to

China

Telecom

for

carriersThe

onlytrue“endtoend”

network

acrossChina,with

clearcentral

managementAssumptions:Technology

leads

to

continual

change

in

industry

structure

Thedecentralized

nature

and

business

oriented

behaviors

of

China

Telecomenables

CNC

to

partner

at

the

local

levelHigh

opportunity

for

CNC

to

fill

China

Telecom

product/service

backlogUnicom

will

be

a

threat

to

start

a

“price

war”

Various

niche

players

emerge

in

later

years,

more

threat

than

(carrier)

opportunityfor

CNCMARKETING

STRATEGYChina

Netcom-The

Boston

Consulting

Group--Confidential--Destroy

by

Shredding---

1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIPrinciples:For

local

access,

will

target

medium

and

large

businesses

in

targeted

buildingsFor

backbone,

provide

carrier

servicesFor

international,

support

other

businesses

and

also

offer

IDD

and

refiling,

etc.In

allareas,

emphasize

quality,

service,

end

to

end,

etc.Get

a

few

key

customers

early;

proveourselves

and

then

build

furtherAssumptions:Carrierand

large

and

mediumsized

corporations

are

the

key

focusespecially

those

in

telecom-intensive

industriesAssume

a

growing

demand

for

business

telecom

serviceswill

need

both

high

and

low

growth

scenarios

Need

to

validate

the

willingness

ofkey

customers

to

switch,

and

their

anticipated

areas

offuture

demand

growthIP

phone

still

the

source

of

revenue

in

the

near

future

Dial-up

ISP

(171)

may

conflict

with

ISP

carrier

interests,

but

could

alsoserveasstrategicinroad

for

future

3G(1)(1)

Not

in

scope

of

this

projectCONTENTChina

Netcom-The

Boston

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIKey

strategic

principlesRegulatory

overviewMarket

overviewCompetition

overviewBusiness

modelsNext

stepsREGULATORY

HIGHLIGHTSChina

Netcom-The

Boston

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIOur

key

assumptions:MII

regards

CNC’s

IP-based

license

asFull

Service

license,

but

lacks

clear

regulatory

documentation.

Incase

oflocal

interpretation

difference,

MII

is

willing

toclarify

on

behalf

ofCNCe.g.

ambiguity

on

local

fixed

line

(CNC

number)CNC

will

be

granted

International

Gateway

license

by

1Q

2000CNC

IP

network

protected

by

the

current

fixed/mobile

interconnect

regulation

CNC

not

required

to

meet

specific

coverage

targets

for

the

near

future

(2-3

years)The

market

will

be

opened

up

gradually,

with

FDI

increasing:more

value

added

service

providers

by

2021more

I-Phone

providers

by

2022no

new

Full

Service

providers

till

2021/2022Account

settlement

specific

for

I-Phone

will

be

regulated

after

the

trial

stage

ends.It

will

be

lower

than

theRMB0.14/min

rate

for

basic

telecom

networks

on

a

per

call

basisEqualaccessby

prefix/pre-select

in

1

year;

number

portability

may

take

another

1-2yearsat

leastCNC

will

have

LMDS

spectrumCNC

anticipates

a

well-intentionedregulator,

with

varied

degrees

of

control

over

local

incumbent

practiceNone

oftheseassumptions

are

“guaranteed;”

CNC

must

fight

aggressively

for

themKEY

REGULATORY

ISSUES

AND

IMPLICATIONSService

licensesFullService

licenseinterpretationInterconnectenforcementAccount

settlementPricing

and

rebalancingROW

and

accessFrequency

spectrumallocation

and

feesUniversal

ServiceObligationEqual

AccessNumbering

andportabilityIGW

license

important

to

competitiveness,size

of

customer

base

and

#

of

partnersMII

notification

on

each

instance

adds

delayto

CNC

local

interconnectionTime

to

market

in

each

city

affected,

detractCNCresourcesCase-by-caselocal

coordination

andnegotiation

delay

local

access

build-out;may

also

be

expensive

to

obtainTime

to

market

for

local

access

build-out

byLMDS

access

solutionsSubsidizing

incumbent

for

USO

affect

coststructure

of

new

entrantsUnable

to

reach

CT

local

line

customerMedium

term

implication:

on-netvoice

nottargetedforthenear4-5

years3

full

servicecarrierincluding

CNCMore

licenses

for

value-added

service

providers

(type

II)MII

supports

CNC

IP

based

license

as

Full

Service

License

But

lack

of

clear

documentation

may

cause

confusion

at

locallevelBased

on

cooperation

of

carriers

Arbitration/settlement

process

exist

but

time

consumingMild

punishment,

law

suit

as

last

resortFor

current

IP-phone

trial,

fees

not

settled Future

Interconnect

economicsLikely

future

settlement:

LD

carrier

pays

local

PSTN

operator

Future

price

competitiveness

vs.

otherRMB0.14/min players

(e.g.

CT)Price

floor

likely

specified

for

incumbent

by

regulation

economics;

price

competitiveness

vs.

CTNo

imminent

initiative

for

rebalancingLegallyfeasiblefor

public

telecom

carrier

(e.g.

CNC)Practice

will

have

to

coordinate

with

municipalities

andinfrastructure

buildingControlled

by

MII

in

co-ordination

with

PTAsFrequency

not

likely

to

be

auctionedUSO

for

incumbent

with

contribution

from

new

entrant2-3

years

before

transparent

and

equitable

approachPrefix

based

solution

provided

by

regulation

in

1

yearNumber

as

national

resources

controlled

centrallyFee

will

be

collected

for

occupation

of

number

resource2-3

years

before

portability

regulationsImpact

onCNCHighest/ImmediateHigh/Medium

TermKey

issuesAssumptionImplication

to

CNCChina

Netcom-The

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIKEY

REGULATORY

BODIES

AND

RESPONSIBILITIESOther

depts,

e.g

SETCVarious

law

making

bodiesNPCState

CouncilDept.

of

Radio

Frequency

AdministrationTelecom

Administration

BureauOther

depts.Provincial

Telecom

Administration

BureauChinaTelecomNationalCompanyMunicipal

Level

Telecom

Administration

BureauTelecomOperatingEntities:e.g.

CTfixed

lineProvincial

governmentMIIAdministrationOperationsNationalProvincialMunicipality

Drafting,

passing

of

telecom

laws

and

statues,

e.g.ChinaTelecomsLaw

International,

National

and

Inter-Provincial

scopelicense

grantingHighest

level

of

regulatory

enforcement/

arbitrationInternational

Gateway

administration

National

level

telecom

resources

control

(e.g.

numbers,frequency

spectrums)Provincial

level

telecom

administrationProvincial

level

license

granting

Provincial

level

regulatory

enforcement

focus

oncoordinationInthe

process

of

splitting

operation

and

administrationA

number

of

Municipal

Level

TABs

are

yet

to

be

createdLimited

enforcement

powerOperation

and

administration

not

separateSettle

interconnect

and

other

disputes

When

not

settled

by

provincial

&

municipal

coordination,

propagate

up

to

provincial

level

and

MII…PTAsPTBSource:

Pyramid

Research;

BCG

analysis45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIChina

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1

-KEY

LICENSE

ASPECTS

AND

IMPLICATION

TO

CNCFull

Service

andInternationalValue

added

servicesownershipGeographic

scopeDurationlicense

feesPerformance

targetsTechnologyKeyAspects2021,

including

CNCCNC

full

service

license

expected

1Q

2000in

2021,

including

CNCCNC

IGW

license

expected

by

EOY1999

Control-share

foreign

ownership

not

allowed

inbasic

telecom

and

public

data

transport

servicesUp

to

50%

of

FDI

in

value

added

service

providers

Intraprovincial

services

under

control

ofprovincial

TABsNo

limitRegulation

will

require

license

fees

Regulation

willspecifyclear

service

buildouttargetsRegulations

will

be

technology

neutralBut

will

give

preference

to

new

technologyNumber

of

licenses

tightly

controlled:

at

most

3

in•

Current

regulation

only

cover

interconnectionbetween

7

types

of

licensed

basic

telecomcarriers

(e.g.

NLD,

local,

wireless,

international)International

licenses

tightly

controlled:

at

most•

4With

IP-phone

license,

CNC

needs

to

negotiatewith

CT

local

branches

city

by

city

CNC

IP

based

bandwidth

wholesale

service

notcovered

in

published

regulation,

adds

delayinlocal

negotiationMore

than

4

value-added

servicelicensespossible

•

Number

of

potential

customersforcarrier’scarrier

services

Speed

of

establishment

and

coverage

of

targetedcustomer

for

carrier’s

carrier

serviceFinancial

strength

of

new

entrant

customers

Intra-provincial

LMDS

service

require

applicationin

each

targeted

areaCompetitor’s

ability

to

lockout

key

service

areasLimited

degree

of

impact

on

economics

Adds

planning

and

local

coordination

pressure

toCNC

local

access

solutions

CNC

IP/DWDM

backbone

receivepositiveinfluenceAssumptions

Implication

to

CNCChina

Netcom-The

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1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHINATURE,

SCOPE

AND

NUMBER

OF

LICENSESVSATtransportserviceIPbackboneIP-phone(includinginternational)WirelessPagingVAS(e.g.ISP,VPN)Servicenature

Owningsatellite

Maintainsatellitechannel

VSAT

basestations

Ownership

&operation

ofinternationalgateways

Interconnectwithforeigncarriers

Leasing

IDDchannels

andlines

Ownership

&operation

oflocal

accessnetworks

Ownership

oflast

mile

Provide

basiclocal

voice/datatransport

andaccess

toNLD/IDD

Building

andleasing

ofbroadband

IP

basedbackbonetransportcapacity

Provide

IPbasedvoiceservice

Norequirementininfrastructurebuilding

IncludinginternationalIP

based

LD

Building

&operation

oflocal

BSCnetwork

Providewireless

voiceservices

Interconnectwithnationaltransportcarrier

Building

&operation

ofLocal

PagingNetworks

Interconnectwithnationaltransportcarrier

With

orwithoutbuilding

&operation

oflocal

network

Offer

web-hosting,

VPN,call

centerservices,

etc.Scope

Nationalcoverage

Crossinternationalpoint

ofpresence

Servicenationaltransportcarriers

Building

&operating

ofnationalswitches

andtrunk

lines

MaintainingPOP

isnationwide

Provide

basicvoice

&

datanationaltransport

Crossprovincialboarders

Have

access

tointernationalPO

connects

Service

localPSTNs

Coverslocalservice

areas,(e.g.

cities

Crossprovincialboardersmunicipalities)

•

Access

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BCG

analysis45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIChina

Netcom

-

The

Boston

Consulting

Group--Confidential--Destroy

by

Shredding---

1

-INTERCONNECTION

ISSUES

AND

IMPLICATION

TO

CNCKey

IssuesAssumptions Implication

to

CNC2

months

if

only

CO

data

modification

is

involved4

months

if

capacity

expansion

needed7

months

if

new

POI

(1)

neededTime

frame

not

strictly

adhered

to,

varies

from

4-6

monthsDispute

settled

primary

viacoordinationArbitrated

by

MII

and

local

governmentViolation

fine

is

very

low

(30,000

RMB

max

per

offense)

Possible

to

claim

for

compensation

due

to

non-cooperation

ofincumbents

(the

last

resort)Incumbents

providecabinetroom

and

conduit

access

Incase

there’s

no

excessconduit

capacity,

incumbent

has

toprovide

feasible

expansion

planLocal

practice

will

varyIncumbent

obligation

tointerconnectInterconnect

timeframeEnforcementAccount

settlementAccess

and

collocationCharges

and

fees

Obligation

clearly

specified

by

regulation

for

interconnecti•onbetween

7

types

of

telecom

network

licensed

operatorsCNC’s

IP

broadband

network

receive

equivalent

protectionMII

sets

technical

specification

of

interconnect

solutions

•Clear

provision

on

cost

and

ownership

of

technical

assetChina

Netcom

-

The

Boston

Consulting

Group--Confidential--Destroy

by

Shredding---

1

-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIIf

CNC

network

is

not

covered

by

regulation,local

negotiation

will

leave

loophole

forincumbent

and

add

delayIncumbent

local

practicevaries,

addcomplexity

and

delay

to

projectFrom

time

of

written

request,

interconnect

complete

within:

•Incumbent

can

take

advantage

of

timeframeloopholes,

add

delays

at

local

level

Central

control

overlocalTAB(2)

varies

due

tovaried

degree

of

separation,

lead

to

differentdegree

of

just

and

resolution

timeframeUpward

propagation

to

MII

time

consuming,adding

delays

toresolutionRMB0.07/min

for

PSTN

access

of

each

end

of

call

path

•Settlement

for

IP

based

will

follow

scheme

when

trial

finishesFutureeconomics:

up

to

30%

of

revenuepaidtoPSTN

based

on

0.30/minIPrateIncumbent

can

take

advantage

of

capacityconstraints

to

delay

interconnect

at

local

leveIncumbent

charges

rental

fee

for

conduit

access

•Incumbent

charges

for

leased

line

needed

for

interconnect

Infrastructure

and

network

investment

related

to

interconnectare

responsibility

of

both

parties,

separatedfrom

POISome

incumbent

local

branches

require

CNCto

pay

for

investment,

ownership

goes

toincumbent,

adds

cost

to

CNC

serviceNote

1:

Point

OfInterconnect2:

Telecommunications

Administration

BureauCLEAR

GUIDANCE

FOR

INTERCONNECT

ALREADY

PUBLISHED,LOCAL

PTA

OBLIGED

TO

FOLLOWLocal

PTA

can

be

resistant,

also

its

organization

not

suitable

for

quick

execution•••••

The

policy

decision

requesting

local

PTAs

to

corporate

with

interconnection

trickles

from

topdown:

the

central

Þ

provincial

PTA

Þ

city

PTACity

PTA

before