宏观经济学MBA教程

二、宏观经济计量与核算MEASURING

A

NATION’S

INCOME第一页，共四十五页。The

Circular

FlowHouseholdsGovernmentFirmsMarkets

for

Factorof

ProductionMarkets

for

Goodsand

ServicesForeign

CountryFirm

RevenueIncomePrivate

SavingTaxesGovernment

DeficitConsumptionGovernment

PurchasesInvestmentImportExportFactor

PaymentsInternationalCapital

FlowFinancial

Markets第二页，共四十五页。Wassily

Leontief(沃西里·里昂惕夫)1973年获诺贝尔经济学奖。

1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中国铁道部顾问，1931年进入美国国民经济研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大学经济学教授。

1941年出版《美国经济结构：1919-1929》，第一次用投入产出法进行经济结构分析。

1966年出版《投入产出经济学》。第四页，共四十五页。国民帐户体系A

SYSTEM

OF

NATIONAL

ACCOUNTS国民收入帐户投入产出表资金循环表国际收支表国民资产负债表第五页，共四十五页。

Gross

domestic

product

(GDP)

is

a

measureof

the

income

and

expenditures

of

aneconomy.

It

is

the

total

market

value

of

all

final

gooand

services

produced

within

a

country

in

agiven

time

period.Gross

Domestic

Product第六页，共四十五页。Important

Features

of

GDPOutput

is

valued

at

market

prices.

It

records

only

the

value

of

final

goods,

notintermediate

goods

(the

value

is

countedonly

once).

It

includes

both

tangible

goods

(food,clothing,

cars)

and

intangible

services(haircuts,

housecleaning,

doctor

visits).第七页，共四十五页。Important

Features

of

GDP

It

includes

goods

and

services

currentlyproduced,

not

transactions

involving

goodsproduced

in

the

past.

It

measures

the

value

of

production

withinthe

geographic

confines

of

a

country.第八页，共四十五页。Important

Features

of

GDP

It

measures

the

value

of

production

thattakes

place

within

a

specific

interval

of

timusually

a

year

or

a

quarter

(three

months).第九页，共四十五页。What

Is

Counted

in

GDP?

GDP

includes

all

items

produced

in

theeconomy

and

sold

legally

in

markets.第十页，共四十五页。What

Is

Not

Counted

in

GDP?

GDP

excludes

most

items

that

are

producedand

consumed

at

home

and

that

never

enterthe

marketplace.

It

excludes

items

produced

and

sold

illicitlsuch

as

illegal

drugs.第十一页，共四十五页。Gross

National

Product

Gross

national

product

(GNP)

is

the

totalmarket

value

of

all

final

goods

and

servicesproduced

within

a

given

period

of

time

by

anation’s

permanent

residents,

regardless

owhere

they

are.第十二页，共四十五页。Three

Other

Measures

of

IncomeNet

National

Product

(NNP)Personal

IncomeDisposable

Personal

Income第十三页，共四十五页。Net

National

Product

(NNP)

The

total

income

of

the

residents

of

a

nationafter

subtracting

losses

from

depreciation.第十四页，共四十五页。Personal

Income

The

income

that

households

andnoncorporate

businesses

receive.第十五页，共四十五页。Disposable

Personal

Income

The

income

that

household

andnoncorporate

businesses

have

left

aftersatisfying

their

obligations

to

thegovernment.第十六页，共四十五页。Gross

National

ProductFrom

Statistical

Abstract

of

the

United

States第十七页，共四十五页。GNP

—National

and

Per

Capita

IncomeFrom

Statistical

Abstract

of

the

United

States第十八页，共四十五页。National

IncomeFrom

Statistical

Abstract

of

the

United

States第十九页，共四十五页。The

Four

Components

of

GDPGDP

(Y

)

is

the

sum

of

the

following:ä

Consumption

(C)ä

Investment

(I)ä

Government

Purchases

(G)ä

Net

Exports

(NX)Y

=

C

+

I

+

G

+

NX第二十页，共四十五页。The

Four

Components

of

GDPConsumption

(C):ä

The

spending

by

households

on

goodsand

services,

with

the

exception

ofpurchases

of

new

housing.Investment

(I):ä

The

spending

on

capital

equipment,inventories,

and

structures,

includinnew

housing.第二十一页，共四十五页。The

Four

Components

of

GDPGovernment

Purchases

(G):ä

The

spending

on

goods

and

services

bylocal,

state,

and

federal

governments.ä

Does

not

include

transfer

payments

because

theycurrently

produced

goodsare

not

made

in

exchange

foror

services.Net

Exports

(NX):ä

Exports

minus

imports.第二十二页，共四十五页。Breakdown

of

U.S.

GDP:

2000第二十三页，共四十五页。Breakdown

of

U.S.

GDP:

2000Consumption69

%第二十四页，共四十五页。Investment15%Breakdown

of

U.S.

GDP:

2000Consumption68

%第二十五页，共四十五页。Consumption68

%GovernmentPurchases19%Breakdown

of

U.S.

GDP:

2000Investment15%第二十六页，共四十五页。Net

Exports-1

%Breakdown

of

U.S.

GDP:

2000Consumption68

%Government

PurchasesInvestment

19%15%第二十七页，共四十五页。Real

versus

Nominal

GDP

Nominal

GDP

values

the

production

ofgoods

and

services

at

current

prices.

Real

GDP

values

the

production

of

goodsand

services

at

constant

prices.第二十八页，共四十五页。Real

versus

Nominal

GDP

An

accurate

view

of

the

economy

requiresadjusting

nominal

to

real

GDP

by

using

theGDP

deflator.第二十九页，共四十五页。价格指数(Price

Index)拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指数：帕斯卡(Pascke)指数：第三十页，共四十五页。GDP

Deflator

The

GDP

deflator

measures

the

current

levelof

prices

relative

to

the

level

of

prices

in

tbase

year.

It

tells

us

the

rise

in

nominal

GDP

that

isattributable

to

a

rise

in

prices

rather

thanrise

in

the

quantities

produced.第三十一页，共四十五页。GDP

DeflatorThe

GDP

deflator

is

calculated

as

follows:第三十二页，共四十五页。GDP

DeflatorThe

GDP

deflator

is

calculated

as

follows:第三十三页，共四十五页。Converting

Nominal

GDP

to

RealGDP

Nominal

GDP

is

converted

to

real

GDP

asfollows:第三十四页，共四十五页。Converting

Nominal

GDP

to

RealGDP

Nominal

GDP

is

converted

to

real

GDP

asfollows:第三十五页，共四十五页。Consumer

Price

Index

The

consumer

price

index

(CPI)

is

a

measure

of

the

overall

cost

of

the

goods

andservices

bought

by

a

typical

consumer.

It

is

used

to

monitor

changes

in

the

cost

ofliving

over

time.

It

reports

the

movement

of

prices

using

anindex

number.第三十六页，共四十五页。Consumer

Price

Index

When

the

CPI

rises,

the

typical

family

has

tospend

more

dollars

to

maintain

the

samestandard

of

living.第三十七页，共四十五页。The

Consumer

Price

Indexversus

the

GDP

Deflator

Economists

and

policymakers

use

both

theGDP

deflator

and

the

consumer

price

indexto

gauge

how

quickly

prices

are

rising.

There

areimportant

differences

between

thetwo.第三十八页，共四十五页。The

Consumer

Price

Indexversus

the

GDP

DeflatorThe

CPI

.

.

..

.

.

includes

only

consumer

goods..

.

.

includes

imports..

.

.

is

measured

using

a

fixed

basket

ofgoods

and

services.第三十九页，共四十五页。The

Consumer

Price

Indexversus

the

GDP

DeflatorThe

GDP

Price

Deflator

.

.

..

.

.

includes

all

goods

and

services

producedomestically..

.

.

excludes

imports..

.

.

is

measured

using

currently

producedgoods

and

services.第四十页，共四十五页。GDP

and

Economic

Well-Being

GDP

is

the

best

single

measure

of

theeconomic

well-being

of

a

society.

GDP

per

person

tells

us

the

income

andexpenditure

of

the

average

person

in

theeconomy.第四十一页，共四十五页。GDP

and

Economic

Well-Being

Higher

GDP

per

person

indicates

a

higherstandard

of

living.GDP

is

not

a

perfect

measure

of

the happiness

or

quality

of

life,

however.第四十二页，共四十五页。GDP

and

Economic

Well-Being

Some

things

that

contribute

to

well-beingare

not