某咨询分析方法scurve1

Author:NancyGreenePenetrationCurve(S-Curve)March1998Copyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.1第一页，共十六页。Agenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodologyCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.2第二页，共十六页。

Productscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases:earlyadoption/trialmassadoptionsaturation/substitutiondeclineTheproductlife-cyclegeneratesaseriesofmarketpenetrationratesthattendtofollowaspecificpattern,calledanS-curve(orpenetrationcurve)Giventhepatternofpenetrationcurvesovertime,andgiventhatthisrelationshipholdstosomeextentinalmosteverycase,penetrationcurvescanbeapowerfultoolinpredictingthegrowthofnewproductsWhatisaPenetrationCurve?(S-Curve)3第三页，共十六页。ProductLife-Cycle

TimeVolumeProductscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases.Earlyadoption/trialMassadoptionSaturation/substitutionDeclineDrivenbypeoplewhoalwaysadoptnewthingsearlyandfueltheproduct’sinitialgrowthTheproductbecomesacceptedbythegeneralmarket;characterizedbyrapidproductgrowthTheproducthaseithersaturatedthemarket,orisalreadybeingsubstitutedforbyanotherproductthatisinanearlierphaseoftheproductlifecycleThedeclineoftheproduct,drivenbycompletesubstitutionfororreplacementwithanotherproduct4第四页，共十六页。CharacteristicsofPenetrationCurves

Penetrationcanoccurattheexpenseofanexistingproduct,oritcandrivenewmarketstogrowSeveralfactorswillinfluencetheendstate,orsaturationpoint,ofaproduct:duration/speedofproductlife-cyclecompetitiveforcesinnovationculture/societyWhenconsideringpenetrationcurves,thereareafewcharacteristicstokeepinmind:5第五页，共十六页。Agenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology6第六页，共十六页。ApplicationsofPenetrationCurves

Validating/determiningmarketgrowthforaneworestablishedproductShowingprecedentsforsuccessofaproductthroughexistingpenetrationcurvesPredictingthesaturationlevelforaproductDeterminingmarketentrystrategyortiming,giventhepredictedpenetrationofaproductDeterminingproductmanagementorphase-out,giventhespeedofnewproducts’adoptionPenetrationcurvescanbeusefulinaddressingaseriesofdifferentstrategicquestionswhicharisewhennewproductsenteramarket.7第七页，共十六页。Agenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology8第八页，共十六页。

In1994,theNationalInstitutesofHealth(NIH)issuedastatementconfirmingthatmostulcersarestronglyassociatedwiththepresenceofabacteria(H.Pylori).Whilepreviously,doctorshadbeenadvisedtotreatulcersymptomswithanti-secretorydrugs,NIHnowrecommendsthatulcerpatientswithH.Pyloriinfectionsalsobetreatedwithantibiotics.Thenewtreatmentcuresnotonlyulcersymptoms,buttheunderlyingcauseofthedisease.In1997,anewdevicewasgrantedapatentbytheU.S.PatentOfficewhichwilltesthumanbreathforthepresenceofH.PyloriabloodtestforH.PyloriisalreadyonthemarketdoctorsmayalsotestforH.Pyloriusingtissuesamplesobtainedthroughendoscopy,arelativelyinvasiveandpainfulmedicalprocedureOurclientisconsideringbuyingthepatentandbelievesthatthebreathtesttechnologyholdssignificantadvantagesoverbothbloodtestsandendoscopylessinvasivethanendoscopymoreaccuratethanbloodtestsSituation:HowlargeisthemarketforH.Pyloritestsovertime?KeyQuestion:ABaincaseteamusedpenetrationcurveanalysistoexaminehowquicklymedicalpracticeschange.DisguisedCaseSituation(1of2)9第九页，共十六页。

Asearchoftheexistingliteraturerevealedthatin1995,only5%ofdoctorsweretestingpatientssuspectedofhavinganulcerforH.Pyloriin1991,thefigurewascloseto1%InordertodeterminehowquicklytheNIHreportwouldimpactdoctors’behavior,ourcaseteamsurveyeddoctorsinthefallof1997:60%saidtheyweretestingtheirsuspectedulcerpatientsforH.Pylori15%saidtheytreatedallsuspectedulcerpatientswithacourseofantibiotics---withoutfirsttestingforH.Pyloritheteamagreedthatthisrepresenteda“ceiling”ontesting:15%ofdoctorswouldalwaystreatH.PyloriwithouttestingforitResearch:Historicpenetration:1991=1%1995=5%1997=60%Saturationpoint=85%PenetrationCurveData:Combiningsecondaryresearchwithsurveys,theteamobtainedafewhistoricpenetrationpoints,aswellastheprojectedsaturationpoint.DisguisedCaseSituation(2of2)10第十页，共十六页。H.PyloriTestingMarket

=datapoint=predictedpenetrationcurve

(basedonregression)Saturationpoint=85%PenetrationcurveanalysissmoothedtheknowndatapointsintoanS-curvethatshowedanaggressiveschedulefortheadoptionofH.Pyloritests.11第十一页，共十六页。Agenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology12第十二页，共十六页。

Gatherhistoricdataandsetupspreadsheet

Picksaturationpointthisshouldbethelogicalceilingonaproduct’spenetration(i.e.noteveryhomewillhaveacomputer,eveninthemostoptimisticofscenarios)saturationpoint=100%inthisexampleCalculatepenetrationratio(historicpercent)/(saturationpoint-historicpercent)198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.740PenetrationRatioMethodology(1of3)13第十三页，共十六页。

198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.740PenetrationRatio7.5957.5967.5977.597ln(years)(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301)ln(penetrationratio)198919901991199219931994etc.25.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.740PenetrationRatio7.5957.5967.5967.5977.5977.598etc.ln(years)(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301)ln(penetrationratio)PredictedPenetrationRatio0.9661.268etc.TakethenaturallogoftheyearsandthepenetrationratioRegressthelogofyearsvs.thelogofthepenetrationratioUseresultstocalculatepredictedpenetrationratiouseformulaforaline,andtakeanti-logantilogof(ln(year)xx-coefficient+b)Methodology(2of3)14第十四页，共十六页。

Calculatepredictedpenetrationusingthepredictedpenetrationratioandsaturationpoint((predictedpenetrationratioxsaturationpoint)/(1+predictedpenetrationratio))19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999