国家经济和社会研究所-月度工资跟踪-高通胀预期继续推动薪酬增长（英）

NIESR

MonthlyWageTracker

HighInflationExpectationsContinuetoDrivePayGrowth

PaulaBejaranoCarbo

April2023

“Averageweeklyearnings,excludingbonuses,grewby6.6percentacrossthewholeeconomyinthethreemonthstoFebruary.Thiswasdrivenbyhigher-than-expectedgrowthinboththeprivateandpublicsectors,whichsawregularpaygrowthof6.9percentand5.3percent,respectively.Despitetheseelevatedfigures,therearesomesignsthatthelabourmarketmaybegintocool,withtoday’sfiguresandhigher-frequencydatapointingtodecreasesinvacanciesandaslightriseintheunemploymentrate.Still,thesechangesremainmarginalandarefaroutweighedbytheeffectofhighinflationexpectationsonpaydynamics.GiventhatitwilltakesometimefortheChancellor’smostrecentmeasurestohaveanyeffectonthelabourmarket,Iwonderifembeddedinflationexpectationswillcontinuetodrivehighpaygrowththroughoutthisyear.”

PaulaBejaranoCarbo

AssociateEconomist,NIESR

Figure1–Averageweeklyearningsinpublicandprivatesectors

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NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch

niesr.ac.uk

M6inqoints

•ThelatestONSestimatessuggesttheannualgrowthrateofaverageweeklyearnings,includingbonuses,was5.9percentinthethreemonthstoFebruary,whilepaygrowthexcludingbonuseswas6.6percent.NIESR’swagetrackerestimatesthattotalandregularaverageweeklyearningswillhavegrownat6.0and6.7percent,respectively,intheyeartothefirstquarterof2023.Ourearlyforecastforthesecondquarterofthisyearseesthesefiguresat7.2and6.0percent,respectively,withthelatterreflectinghighexpectedprivatesectorbonusgrowth.

•Thedisparityinpublic-andprivate-sectorwagegrowthhasfallenforafifthconsecutivemonth,withprivatesectorregularpaygrowingby6.9percentwhileregularpayinthepublicsectorgrewby5.7percent.

•RealtotalpayintheUnitedKingdomfellby3.0percentontheyearinthethreemonthstoFebruary,remainingamongthelargestfallsingrowthsincecomparablerecordsbegan.Public-sectorworkersexperiencedanaveragefallof3.5percentwhileprivatesectorworkerssawtheirincomeerodedby2.8percent,onaverage.

•Theeconomicinactivityratedecreasedby0.4percentagepointsinthethreemonthstoFebruary,thoughthiswasdrivenbystudentsaged16-24ratherthanthekey50-64agegrouptheChancellorsoughttotargetinhisSpringBudget.

•348,000workingdayswerelostinFebruarytoindustrialaction(mostlyintheeducationsector),upfrom210,000inJanuary.Whilethispalesintoinsignificancecomparedwiththefigureof2.5milliondayspermonthrecordedduringthe‘winterofdiscontent’in1979,itisnonethelessconcerningascontinuedstrikeactionissettooccurinthecomingmonths.

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Employment

Thelatestdatasuggestthattheemploymentrateincreasedby0.2percentagepointscomparedwiththepreviousthreemonths,risingto75.8percentinthethreemonthstoFebruary.Theunemploymentrateincreasedby0.1percentagepointonthequarterto3.8percent,afterremainingflatforfourmonths.Giventhatthelatest

KPMGandRECreportonJobs

notesincreasedredundanciesinMarch,wethinkthisriseintheunemploymentratewillcontinuethrough2023ascompaniesbuckleundereconomicpressureanduncertainty.

Theeconomicinactivityrateforpeopleaged16-64wasestimatedat21.1percent,adecreaseof0.4percentagepointsinthethreemonthstoFebruarycomparedtothepreviousthreemonths.Thiswasdrivenbystudentsaged16-24ratherthanthekey50-64agegrouptheChancellorsoughttotargetinhisSpringBudget.

Thenumberofvacanciesfellby47,000inthefirstquarterof2023comparedtothepreviousquarter,causedbyeconomicuncertaintyandpressuresholdingbackrecruitment.However,wearestillfarfromseeingtheUKlabourmarketcool.Indeed,themostrecent

report

byHiringLab-theeconomicresearchbranchownedbyandutilisingtheproprietarydataofjob-postingsiteIndeed–notesthatwhilevacanciescontinuedtosoftenthroughoutthefirstquarterof2023,jobpostingontheirwebsitestillremained26percentabovetheirpre-pandemic(February2020)figureasof10March.

Figure2–Realaverageweeklyearningsinpublicandprivatesectors

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Pay

Theannualgrowthrateinaverageweeklyearningsincludingbonuses(AWE)inGreatBritainwas5.9percentinthethreemonthstoFebruaryand6.6percentifweexcludebonuses.Highinflationexpectationscontinuetodrivethishighpaygrowth,withtheBankofEngland’slatest

MonetaryPolicyReport

highlightingthatexpectedCPIinflationwilllikelybeakeydriverbehindincreasedpaysettlementsin2023andposeanimportantupwardsrisktotheirforecast.

Inrealterms,totalpayfellby3percentinthreemonthstoFebruary2023comparedtothethreemonthstoFebruary2022.Asfigure2aboveshows,workersindifferentsectorshavefeltthisrealsqueezeasymmetrically.

Private-sectorregularAWEannualgrowthwas6.9percentinthethreemonthstoFebruaryand6.1percentifweincludebonuses.Ourestimateforthefirstquarterof2023seesthesefiguresremainingat6.9and6.1percent,respectively.Ourearlyforecastforthesecondquarterof2023isforthesefiguresat5.9and7.5percent,respectively,duetobonusgrowthontheyear.

Public-sectortotalAWEannualgrowthhasbeenonanincreasingpathsincealowinthethreemonthstoApril2022of1.4percentandiscurrentlysittingat5.3percentinthethreemonthstoFebruary.Weestimatepublicsectortotalpaygrowthof5.7percentinthefirstquarterof2023,stillbelowtherecordgrowthof6.4percentobservedinSeptember2001.Ourearlyforecastforthesecondquarterofthisyearexpectsthisfiguretoriseto6.1percent.

SpringBudgetAnalysis

TheChancellor’sSpringBudgetwasonewhichfocusedonsparkinggrowthinwhatappearstobeaflatliningeconomy,employingawiderangeofpolicies,suchaschildcareandpensionsreforms,totacklestructuralissues,liketheUKlaboursupplyshortage.Atthesametime,theChancellorleftcertainkeyissuesentirelyunaddressed,mostnotablythatofpublicsectorpay(orlackthereof).Thisisdisappointing,butmoreover,leavesquestionmarksaroundtheissuesofhowthegovernmentintendstodealwithoutputlossesfromfurtherindustrialactionandapossibleoutflowofskilledpublicsectorworkers.Weprovideashortoverviewofthefivekeypoliciesemployedtoincreaselaboursupply,andhowtheyfactorintotheOBR’slatestemploymentforecast,below:

•Childcarereforms

oThenew30-hours-a-weekoffreechildcareallowanceforworkingparentsofnine-monthtotwo-yearoldsislikelytoincreaselabourmarketparticipation.TheOBRestimatesthischangewillaccountforanincreaseinemploymentof60,000by2027-28,withtheaveragetargetedworkerenteringpart-timework.

•Childcaresupportwithinuniversalcredit

oThechangetoreimbursechildcaresupportwithinuniversalcredit(UC)upfrontwillhaveasmalleffectonlabourmarketparticipation,estimatedbytheOBRtobeanincreaseinemploymentof15,000overitsforecast.

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•Otheruniversalcreditreforms

oTheincreaseofconditionalityonparentsandcarersclaimingUCwillalsopushsomepeopleintowork(primarilybyincreasingtheirworksearchintensity).TheOBRforecaststhiswillraiseemploymentby10,000by2027-28.

•Pensionsreforms

oChangestothelifetimeallowanceandannualallowancethresholdsonpensioncontributionswillincreasethelabourparticipationofcertainwell-offgroups,suchasdoctors.TheOBRestimatesthiswillpositivelyimpactemploymentby15,000overitsforecast.

•Anewdisabilityemploymentprogramme

oThisprogrammeaimstosupportdisabledpeopleenteringemployment;theOBRestimateitwillincreaseemploymentby10,000overitsforecast.

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Caveat

NIESR’sWageTrackerincludespredictionsforregularpayandbonuspaymentsforthewholeeconomy,aswellasforecastsforprivateandpublic-sectorwages.TheWageTrackerexploitsinformationfromkeymacroeconomicindicators,includinglabourmarkettrends,buildingalsooninformationfrommonthlyGDPnowcastsproducedbyNIESR’sGDPTrackerandsurveyevidence,suchaslabourcostsinthemanufacturingandservicesectorsfromtheBankofEnglandAgentsScores.Thewagemodelsalsocapturetheinteractionbetweenprivateandpublicpay,showntoberelevantinworkdonebyNIESR.

Tocheckhowourmethodologywouldworkinrealtimewehaveproducedjudgement-freeforecastsofearningsgrowthfortheperiodbetweenJuly2010andOctober2018.Forwholeeconomyearnings,therootmeansquareerroris0.2percentagepointsforthemeasureexcludingbonusesand0.4percentagepointsforthemeasureincludingbonuses.Thesenumbersindicatethedegreeofuncertaintyaroundthepointforecastsproducedbythemodelsateachpointintime.Theerrorsaregreaterforthemeasureofearningsincludingbonusesbecausebonuspayments,particularlyintheprivatesector,aresubjecttoshort-termvolatility.Inpractice,weaddresidualsreflectingourjudgementsotheactualerrorbandsmaybelargerorsmaller.

Notesforeditors:

ForfurtherinformationpleasecontacttheNIESRPressOffice:

press@niesr.ac.uk

orLucaPierion02076541954/

l.pieri@niesr.ac.uk

NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch2DeanTrenchStreetSmithSquareLondon,SW1P3HEUnitedKingdom

SwitchboardTelephoneNumber:02072227665

Website:

http://www.niesr.ac.uk

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Table1:Summarytableofearningsgrowth

AverageWeeklyEarnings

Wholeeconomy

Privatesector

Publicsector

Latestweights

100

82

18

RegularTotal

RegularTotal

RegularTotal

Mar-22Apr-22May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22 Jan-23Feb-23

559

562

567

569

572

576

579

583

587

589

591

596

614

604

605

612

614

618

621

625

628

632

634

638

553

556

562

564

568

571

575

578

582

583

585

590

618

607

607

617

619

623

627

629

632

635

637

644

589

589

590

590

591

594

594

606

609

6