中国产品出口竞争力外文翻译文献

中国产品出口竞争力外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)ChinasCompetitivePerformance:AThreatToEastAsianManufacturedExports?ThereisgrowingconcerninSoutheastandEastAsiaaboutthecompetitivethreatposedbyChinaburgeoningexports,exacerbatedbyitsaccessiontotheWTO.Thethreatisnotconfinedtolabor-intensiveproductsbutspansthewholetechnologicalandskillrange.Atthesametime,Chinaisrapidlyraisingitsimportsfromtheregion,anditisnotclearwhetheritsburgeoningexportswilldamageitsneighbors.WeexaminethedimensionsofChinacompetitivethreatinthe1990s,benchmarkingcompetitiveperformancebytechnologyandmarket,andfindsthatmarketsharelossesaresofarmainlyinlowtechnologyproducts,withJapanbeingthemostvulnerablemarket.Weanalyzemarketsharechangesandhighlightproductgroupsthataredirectlyorindirectlyexposedtoacompetitivethreat.Weexamineintra-regionaltradeandfindthatChinaanditsneighborsareraisinghightechnologyexportsintandem:thenatureofthe-1-internationalproductionsystemsinvolvedleadtocomplementarilyratherthanconfrontation.Chinaisthusactingasanengineofexportgrowthforitsneighborsintermsofdirecttrade.However,thiswillchangeasChinamovesupthevaluechainandtakesontheactivitiesthathavedrivenEastAsianexportgrowth.IntroductionConcernaboutChinacompetitivethreatiswidespread(indevelopedeconomieslikeUSaswellasdevelopingoneslikeMexico),butisstrongestinEastandSoutheastAsia.Chinaburgeoningexportsackedbycheapandproductivelabor,alargestockoftechnicalmanpower,hugeanddiversifiedindustrialsector,attractivenesstoforeigninvestors,pragmaticuseofindustrialpolicy,and,now,freeraccesstoworldmarketsunderWTO–leadtoapocalypticvisionsofexportlosses.2Chinaismostthreateningtoneighborsthatrelyprimarilyonlowwagesfortheirexportadvantage.However,asitupgradesitsexportstructure,themoreadvancedeconomies(Singapore,HongKong,KoreaandTaiwan)alsofearfortheircompetitiveness.Thecurrenthollowingoutoftheirlow-endmanufacturingmaysoonextendtocomplexproduction,design,developmentandrelatedservices.DomesticmarketsarealsothreatenedbyChina,butsofarmostattentionseemstohavebeenonexports.OffsettingthisthreatarethepromiseofthegiantChinesemarket(WTOaccessionisonlyoneofseveralinitiativestoliberalizeregionaltrade)andthepotentialforcollaborationwithitinexportingtotherestoftheworld.TradewithintheEastAsianregionisflourishing.Chinaisagrowingimporterfromtheregionofnaturalresourcesthatitdoesnotpossess.Itisalsoraisingimportsofmanufacturedproducts.Itsadvancedneighborsaresellingitsophisticatedconsumerandproducergoods,andusingitasabaseforprocessingexportstothirdcountries.Themultinationalcompanies(MNCs)thatnowaccountforaroundhalfofChineseexports(andfarmoreofitshightechnologyexports,UNCTAD,2002)areincorporatingChinaintoproductionsystemsspanningtheregion(ragmentation’andegmentation’areusedtodescribethisphenomenon3),sopromotingconsiderableintra-firmtradewithotherregionalbases.Chinaownenterprisesarelikelytospecializewithrespecttoregionalcounterpartsandsoraiseintra-industrytradeindifferentiatedproducts.Perhaps-2-worryinglyforcompetitorsinotherregions,suchintegrationcanleadChinatocomplementregionalcompetitivenessasawhole,ratherthansubstituteitsexportsforthoseofitsneighbors.Itisdifficulttoassess,however,whethercomplementarilybetweenChinaandtheregionaleconomieswillfullyoffsetitscompetitivethreat.Thedynamicsandcomplexityoftheinteractionsmakeitimpossibletoquantifytheoutcome,eventopredictbroaddirections.ThebasicissueiswhetherChinahigherwageneighborscanmoveintomoreadvancedexportactivitiesorfunctionsrapidlyenoughtopermitcontinuedexportexpansion.Iftheycan,theycancontinuewithexport-ledgrowth.Iftheycannot,theywillsufferexportdecelerationandrashiftinspecializationtowardsprimaryproductsorslow-growingsegmentsofmanufacturedexports.Theoutcome,inotherwords,willdependontherelativegrowthoftechnologicalandothercapabilitiesinChineseandregionalenterprises,withtheformerhavingsuchadvantagesaslowerwages,largerscaleeconomies,greaterindustrialdepth,poolsoftechnicalskillandaproactivegovernment.However,asEastAsiancountriesdifferwidelyinthesefactors(Lall,2001),theyfacedifferentkindsandintensityofcompetitivethreat.Thenatureofthethreatdepends,moreover,ontheorganizationoftheproductionandmarketingsystem:independentlocalfirmsarelikelytocompetemoredirectlythanaffiliatesofthesameMNCspreadoverdifferentcountriesinanintegratedsystem.ThispaperdoesnottrytomeasureChinacompetitivethreatoritseffects,buttomaprelativeexportperformanceinthe1990sbytechnologyanddestinationandsoassesswherethethreatappearsmostintense.WefocusonmajorEastAsianexporters5andonexportstothirdmarkets,butwealsoanalysescomplementaritiesbetweenChinaandEastAsia,particularlyinelectronics,theregionlargestexportandtheonewhereMNCsystemsdominate.Asthe1990spredateChinaWTOaccession,wedonotgointotheimplicationsofthisaccession;however,theanalysisofcompetitivetrendshasimplicationsfortheevolutionoffuturetradebytheregionasliberalizationgrows.BackgroundonChineseexportperformanceChinesemanufacturedexportsgrewby16.9%perannumover1990-2000,comparedto6.4%fortheworld,12.0%foralldevelopingcountriesand10.3%-3-fortherestofEastAsia.Itsshareofworldmanufacturedexportsrosefrom1.7%to4.4%overthedecadeandcontinuedrisingrapidly.6Thus,by2002Chinaaccountedfor5.1%ofworldmerchandiseexports;itwasthenthefifthlargestexporter(afterUSA,Germany,JapanandFrance,andaheadoftheUK).Chinashareofdevelopingworldmanufacturedexportsrosefrom11%to20%overthe1990sandoftheEastAsianregionexcludingChinafrom18.7%to41.8%.Itsexportgains(seebelow)spannedtheentiretechnologicalspectrum,andweremostdynamicinthecomplexendoftherange,inproductsthathaverecentlydriventheexportgrowthoftherestofEastAsia.Thisexportsurgeislikelytobesustainedforsometimetocome.Chinahasparecapacitynthatitspercapitaexportsarestillrelativelysmall,7wagesaremuchlowerthaninitsmainneighborsandithaslargereservesofcheapanddisciplinedlabor(thoughdrawingitintoexportswillinvolvethecostofbuildinglinkswiththeinterior).8Moreimportantly,itsadvantagesarenotstatic(confinedtocheaplabor);theyareupgradingrapidly.Chinaisinvestingheavilyintechnologyandadvancedskills;forexample,theshareoftherelevantagegroupenrolledintertiaryeducationrosefrom9percentin1997to13percentin2000(UNESCOwebsite).Itisexploitingthescaleofferedbyitsgiantmarkettobecomecompetitiveincapital-intensiveactivitiesbeyondthereachofmanyneighbors.Itisusingitsdiverseindustrialbasetodeepenlocalcontent.Itisdrawinginexport-orientedFDIatanimpressiverate,usingitsmarketattractionstoinduceinvestorstoraiselocalR&Dandlinkages;tillnowithasbeenabletoimposeperformancerequirementsofthetypesoontobebannedunderWTOrules.WTOaccessionmayconstrainChinaabilitytouseindustrialpolicy(Nolan,2001)butitwillalsoopenupnewexportopportunities,particularlyintextilesandgarments.9Accessionmayalsoenhanceitsdomesticcompetitiveness:itwillimprovetheinvestmentclimateforFDI,makeimportedinputscheaper(forenterprisesoutsidespecialexportregimes)andinducefasterrestructuringofdomesticenterprises(Ianchovichinaetal,2003,andLemoyneandUnal-Kesenci,2002).Marketsharechangesinmajordevelopedcountrymarkets-4-WeanalyzemarketsharesofChinaanditsneighborsinthreemajormarkets:Japan,theUSandWestEurope,accordingtotechnologycategories(AnnexTable1).Intermsofvalue,themostimportantmarketforChinain2000istheUS($49billion),followedbyJapan($36billion)andWestEurope($38billion).However,therestoftheworldisalmostaslargeadestinationforChineseexportsasthesetogether($106billionin2000)andwithinthistherestofEastAsiaislargerthananymajorOECDmarketbyitself($74.6billion).Thecompetitivepositionofeachcountrycanbeanalyzedintermsofthemarketsharein1990and2000andthechangeoverthedecade.Theannextableshowsthefollowing:Totalmanufacturedexports:ChinadoesbestinJapan,followedatsomedistancebytheUS.Incommonwithmostneighbors,itsmarketsharegainisweakestinWestEurope.KorealosesmarketsharesinbothJapanandUS,whileTaiwanlosesonlyintheUS.HongKonglosesmarketsharesinallmarkets,particularlyintheUSandJapan.LikeTaiwan,SingaporelosesonlyintheUS.ThenewTigersgainshareinallmarkets.WiththeexceptionofIndonesia,witharathertepidperformance,theothersallgainmostshareintheJapanesemarket.Resourcebasedproducts:Chinaagainleadstheregionintermsofmarketshareincreases,withapatternsimilartothatfortotalexports.However,KoreahasalargegaininJapan,incontrasttoTaiwanandSingapore,whichloseshares;thelattertwoalsoloseintheUS.ThailandisabiggainerinJapanwhileIndonesiaandthePhilippinesloseoutintheUS.Lowtechnologyproducts:ChinamassivemarketsharegainsareagainconcentratedinJapan.ThefourmatureTigersgenerallysufferlossesinmarketshare,butSingaporeseesanincreaseinJapanesemarketshare.ThebestoverallperformanceamongthenewTigersisbyIndonesia.Mediumtechnologyproducts:WhiletheChinesepatternofsuccessrecurs,thenewTigersmakesignificantgainsinJapanandKoreaincursasignificantloss.TaiwanandSingaporesufferlossesintheUSmarket.Hightechnologyexports:TaiwanagaindivergesfromKoreainitsperformanceinJapan,theformershowingthesecondlargestgaininthegroup(afterChina)andthelatterthelargestloss.IntheUSmarket,thesituationisreversed,withSingaporejoining-5-Taiwaninlosingmarketshares.AmongthenewTigers,MalaysiaandthePhilippinesarethe big gainersinJapan,buttheothertwoalsobenefitsignificantly.ThePhilippinesisthesecondlargestwinnerinthegroupintheUSmarket.Insum,ChinamainmarketsharegainsinthedevelopedworldareconcentratedinJapan(thoughtheUSaccountsforalargerdollarvalueofexportgrowth).ThisisalsotrueofitsneighborswiththeexceptionsofKoreaandIndonesia(HongKongwasanall-roundloser).Totheextentthatwecaninterpretmarket share changes to be causally related toChinaexportsurge,itwouldseemthatthematureTigerssufferedthemostfromChinesecompetition.Thelargestsuchlossisinlowtechnologyproducts,whichistobeexpected,butthisnottakeintoaccountthegrowthofLTexportsbyKoreaandTaiwantoChina.Therelativelylowgainsbythelower-incomenewTigersinLTmayalsoreflecttheimpactofChinesecompetitionithouttheoffsettingincreaseinexportsofintermediatestoChina.ConclusionsChinaexportsurgehasraisedgraveconcernsintheregion.Whilesomeoftheapocalypticpredictionsmayhavebeenoverdone,itiscertainlypossiblethatrapidexportgrowthbysuchamassiveentrantwilladverselyaffectsexportgrowthinitsneighbors.Asthisanalysisshows,however,theoutcomeiscomplex.Forastart,theriseinChinaexportsismatchedbythatinitsimports–withintheregionitsimportgrowthoutpacesitsexportgrowth.Withappropriaterestructuringofactivitiestomatchnewcompetitiveneeds,itsneighborsshouldbeabletomaintainhighratesofexportgrowth.TherearetwomaindriversofregionalexportstoChina.Thefirstistomeetitsburgeoningdemandforimportedproducts:primaryproductsandresource-basedmanufacturesthatitcannotproducecapitalgoodsandintermediatesfordomestic-orientedproductionandmoresophisticatedconsumergoodsthanitsindustrycancurrentlyprovide.Thesecondistomeettheneedsofitsexportindustries.Thishastwocomponents:rocessingctivityinspecialeconomiczonesthatuseimportedinputsforexportactivities,andotherexportersthatalsoneedimports.Processingactivityisincreasinglyorganizedaspartofintegratedproductionsystems,particularlyitshightechnologysegments,though-6-somedomesticorientedindustriesarealsobeingpluggedintothissystemastheyrealizescaleandlearningeconomiesandbecomegloballycompetitive.Bothdriversarelikelytocontinueintotheforeseeablefuture,thoughtheircompositionwillchangeasChineseandregionalcapabilitiesdevelop.中国竞争力的表现：是对东亚制成品出口的威胁吗？越来越多的东南亚和东亚地区关注中国出口的迅速增长所带来的竞争威胁，中国加入后，更加剧了这种情况。这种威胁并不局限于劳动密集型产品，而是跨越整个技术和技能范围的产品，同时，中国正在迅速提高其在东南亚和东亚的进口，目前尚不清楚其是否其蓬勃发展的出口将是否损害其邻国的利益，本文研究了中国20世纪90年代中国竞争威胁的大小场竞争力表现的基准是技术和市场份额究发现，-7-发现市场份额的损失迄今为止主要在低技术产品，日本是其最脆弱的市场。我们分析了市场份额的变化，直接或间接地突出了产品集群的竞争威胁。区域内贸易的研究表明，中国和其邻国同步提高了高技术产品的出口，参与国际生产系统的性质导致的是互补性，而不是对抗。因此，在直接贸易条件下，中国在出口增长方面是其邻国的领头人，但是，这将改变中国价值链的移动，带动东亚出口的迅速增长，引言中国竞争威胁论的担心是普遍存在的，（像发达国家中的美国和发展中国家的墨西哥等）作为东亚和南亚最大的出口国，中国的新兴出口凭借廉价的劳动生产力，大量的人力技术存量，巨大的和多元化的工业部门，吸引外国投资，以及优惠的产业政策，如今，加入后，中国更加自由的进入国际市场，导致了出口损失末日的严重观点。中国依靠低工资的出口优势造成了对邻国的最大威胁。中国的出口结构升级以后，更多的发达经济体（新加坡，香港，南韩和台湾）也会担忧其强大的竞争力，当前其低端工业制成的漏洞将很快由其他复杂生产、设计和发展的产品以及相关的服务产业所填充。各个国家的国内市场也受到中国的威胁，但目前为止，主要关注的还是在出口方面。弱化这种威胁论的是中国政府的承诺(加入只是区域贸易自由化的若干举措之一)，和出口到世界各地的潜在合作。中国与东亚地区的贸易正在蓬勃发展，在这些地区进口其不具备自然资源的速度在快速-8-增长。工业制成品的进口也在上升，发达的邻国向其销售消费制成品和生产制成品利用其作为向第三国产品出口的加工基地国公跨国公司），现在占到中国出口的一半（目前主要是高技术产品的出口，2002）,不断融入中国生产系统的方方面面，（用'分裂'和'分割'是用来描述这种现象）,更好地促进了与其他区域企业之间的贸易。中国的国有企业有可能专业化同业生产，以此提高同业差异化产品的贸易。与其担心在其他地区的竞争对手，这种整合反而会导致中国以配合整个区域的竞争力，而不是替代其邻国的出口。但是，中国和各区域经济体的互补性是否能完全抵消其竞争威胁，这是难以估计的。动态性和复杂性的相互作用使其无法量化这个结果，我们甚至可以预知大方向。这里的基本问题是，中国高工资的邻国是否带来更先进的技术活动，而且能够迅地速继续扩大出口额。如果能，那么可以继续出口引致的经济增长，否则他们将受到出口减速和/或在对初级产品或工业制成品出口增长缓慢的部分进行专业化转变。换言之，产出将取决于技术和能力，中国和其他地区企业的相对增长，前者优势有工资较低，规模效益较大，产业深度更广，技术技能集群更大，以及一个积极的政府。然而，东亚国家在这些因素方面的差异很大，(Lall,2001),他们面对着不同种类和密集度的竞争威胁。威胁的性质更多地体现在产品组织和营销系统，独立的当地企业可能比一体化系统中遍布不同国家的相同跨国公司分支机构的竞争更加直接。-9-本文并不试图衡量中国的竞争威胁或其影响力是衡量上世纪90年代由技术和目的评估找出相关产品出口竞争威胁最激烈的地方们专注于东亚的主要出口国和第三市场的出口，我们还分析了中国和东亚地区之间的互补性，特别是在电子产品方面，该地区是最大的出口方，而且跨国公司系统占主导地位。早在中国未进入的90年代，我们没有阻止其进入的影响力争力趋势的研究表明其对区域自由化增长引起的未来贸易变革是有影响的。中国出口结构表现的背景中国工业制成品年出口增长率超过1990-2000的16.9超出世界平均水平的6.4超过其余东亚发展中国家的10.3近几年中国的国际工业制成品的份额从1.7升到4.4并且在迅速增长，因此，到2002年中国占世界商品出口的5.1％; 是第五大出口国（仅次于美国，德国，日本和法国，并领先于英国），中国在发展中国家的工业制成品出口份额从20世纪90年代的11％上升到20％，东亚地区除中国以外，从18.7％上升到41.8％。中国出口的增长跨越了整个技术领域，在复杂产品以及目前对其余东亚国家的出口增长起主导作用的产品范围内最具影响。出口激增可能需要一段时间来实现，中国的“闲置能力”导致人均资本出口额仍旧相对较小，工资比主要邻国要低，廉价的规范化的劳动量储存较大(虽然它们拉动了出口，但是带来了建立内部联动机制的成-10-本)，最重要的是，这种优势不是静态的（限于廉价劳动力），是迅速升级的，中国正在加大技术和先进的技能的投资;例如，各年龄段的专业教育比例从1997年的9升到2000年的13bsite).中国利用其巨大的规模产出增加市场占有量，其资本密集型产品的竞争力超出了许多邻近国家，利用其多元化的工业基础，以加