AP宏观经济学(傅莹)

AP宏观经济学(傅莹)第一页，共57页。MoneySupply(M1)=Currency+CheckableDeposits+Traveler’sChecksOutstanding$2,269.7Billion$1,048.6Billion$1,217.1Billion$4BillionAsofJuly13,2012第二页，共57页。M1WithComponents第三页，共57页。CurrencyasPercentageofM1第四页，共57页。AsofJuly13,2012M2=$9,991.5BillionM1

$2,269.7Billion+SavingsDeposits$6,386.4Billion+Small-DenominationTimeDeposits$694.9Billion

+MoneyMarketMutualFunds$640.5Billion

第五页，共57页。M2第六页，共57页。MoneySupplyandGDPVelocity:Thenumberoftimesperyearthattheaveragedollarinthemoneysupplyisspentforfinalgoodsandservices.[Economics,McConnellBrueFlynn,19thedition,8-30]M1V=PQM1xVelocity=NominalGDP第七页，共57页。CurrentFiguresCategoryAmount($Billion)M12,222.8PQ(NominalGDP)15,467.8AsofJan1,2012V=PQ/M1=6.96第八页，共57页。VelocityofM1第九页，共57页。Marketfor“FederalFunds”FederalFundsRate:Rateatwhichbankschargeoneanotherforovernightloansmadefromexcessreserves.rt=nominalinterestratetargetforfederalfunds(0%-0.25%forJuly2012)$rnMSMDrt第十页，共57页。Marketfor“FederalFunds”MS=MoneySupplyessentiallysetbytheFederalReserveMD=MoneyDemandInfluences:TransactiondemandNominalGDPorIncome(+)Asset/SpeculativeDemandOpportunitycostofholdingmoney(-)

PrecautionaryDemandUnforeseenExpenses(+)$rnMSMDrt第十一页，共57页。FederalFundsRate第十二页，共57页。RealInterestRatesandInterest-SensitiveInvestmentandConsumptionrreal$DesiredExpenditureInvestmentsr0ε0r1ε1第十三页，共57页。TheStructureofNominalInterestRates1.FederalFundsTarget0%-0.25%2.MoneyMarket0.5%3.Five-YearC.D.1.37%4.Ten-YearTreasury1.509%5.15-YearMortgage3.17%6.30-YearMortgage3.81%7.30-YearTreasury2.58%RealInterestRate=RNominal–ExpectedInflationExample:15-YearMortgageRealInterestRate=3.17%–1.5%=1.67%AsofJuly2012第十四页，共57页。Example:Real30-YearMortgageRate第十五页，共57页。RequiredReserveRatio=10%AssetsLiabilities&Owner’sEquityLoans800Deposits1000GovernmentBonds200Owner’sEquity100Reserves10011001100BalanceSheet:BankABankAhasnoexcessreserves第十六页，共57页。BalanceSheet:BankBRequiredReserveRatio=10%AssetsLiabilities&Owner’sEquityLoans750Deposits1000GovernmentBonds200Owner’sEquity100ReserveankBhas$50excessreserves第十七页，共57页。RequiredReserveRatioBankreserves,requiredand/orexcess,mayeitherbeheldat:Thebank(vaultcash)TheregionalFederalReserveBank第十八页，共57页。AModelofDepositCreationWhenacommercialbankreceivesacashdeposit,thebank’sabilitytoincreaseloansbeginsachainofnewloansthatcanleadtoamultipliedincreaseindemanddepositsandinthemoneysupply.Theextentofthemaximummultipliedincreaseisdirectlytiedtotherequiredreserveratio.第十九页，共57页。AnExampleAssumePersonAdeposits$1000ofcash,previouslyheldinherhome,inBankI.BankImustmaintain$100ofreservesagainstPersonA’sdeposit.ThisallowsBankItoloanout$900toPersonB.RequiredReserveRatio=10%BankNewDepositsNewReservesNewLoansI$1000(PersonA)$100$900(PersonB)第二十页，共57页。AnExampleNextPersonBtakestheloanandemploysacontractor,PersonC,tobuildadeckfor$900.BankImustmaintain$100ofreservesagainstPersonA’sdeposit.Thecontractor(PersonC)depositsthe$900intohisbank,BankII.BankIImustmaintain$90ofcashreservesagainstthisdepositof$900.ThisallowsBankIItoloanoutanadditional$810.BankNewDepositsNewReservesNewLoansI$1000(PersonA)$100$900(PersonB)II$900(PersonC)$90$810(PersonD)RequiredReserveRatio=10%第二十一页，共57页。AnExampleAssumeBankIIlends$810topersonDwhowishestohaveamedicalprocedure.PersonDpaysthephysician(PersonE)the$810;thephysiciandepositsthe$810inheraccountinBankIII.BankIIImustthenhold$81incashreservesallowingBankIIItolendout$729toPersonF.BankNewDepositsNewReservesNewLoansI$1000(PersonA)$100$900(PersonB)II$900(PersonC)$90$810(PersonD)III$810(PersonE)$81$729(PersonF)RequiredReserveRatio=10%第二十二页，共57页。AnExampleThisprocesscontinueswiththefollowingendresult:RequiredReserveRatio=10%The$1,000innewreservesrepresentsthe$1,000cashdepositbyPersonA.Thesereservesarenowspreadacrossmanybanks.第二十三页，共57页。AnExampleThedepositcreationmultiplierisequalto1/(RequiredReserveRatio).Inthisexamplethismultiplierisequalto1/.10=10Themaximumfinalincreaseindemanddepositsis10timestheincreaseincashreservesof$1000.RequiredReserveRatio=10%第二十四页，共57页。ChangeintheMoneySupplySincetheMoneySupplyisthesumofcirculatingcashanddemanddeposits,inthiscasethemaximum

increaseinthemoneysupplyis$9,000.

Circulatingcashfallsby$1,000(PersonA’soriginaldepositofcashintoBankI)Whiledemanddepositsgrowby$10,000,foranetincreaseof$9,000第二十五页，共57页。LimitationstotheMaximumIncreaseBankskeepexcessreserves:BankIneednotincreaseloansbyafull$900,themaximumlegalincreaseinloans.Intheabsenceofsufficientlycredit-worthycustomers,forexample,BankImaykeepexcessreserves,loaningoutonly$700forexample,maintaining$200ofexcessreserves.第二十六页，共57页。LimitationstotheMaximumIncreaseLeakagetocoinandcurrency:Thecontractor(PersonC)waspaid$900.Ifinsteadofdepositingthefull$900inhisaccountatBankII,thecontractorkept$100incashandonlydeposited$800,thenBankIIwouldonlyhavebeenabletoincreaseitsloansby$720(90%of$800)insteadof$810(90%ofthefull$900.第二十七页，共57页。LimitationstotheMaximumIncreaseTime:Thisprocesstakesmanyiterationstoapproachitsfullimpact.Afterseveralmonths,onlyapartialmultipliedincreaseindemanddepositscanbeexpected.第二十八页，共57页。Example2:UsingBankBalanceSheetBankI:The$1000depositbyPersonAgeneratesa$1000increaseincashreservesanda$1000increaseindemanddeposits.AssetsLiabilities&Owner’sEquityReserves+1000DemandDeposits(PersonA)+1000第二十九页，共57页。Example2:UsingBankBalanceSheetBankI:BankImayloanout$900toPersonBtobuildthedeck.ThebankputstheproceedsoftheloanintoPersonB'scheckingaccountatBankI,sothatPersonBmaywriteachecktopaythecontractor.AssetsLiabilities&Owner’sEquityLoans(PersonB)+900DemandDeposits(PersonB)+900第三十页，共57页。Example2:UsingBankBalanceSheetBankI:Oncethecontractor(PersonC)cashesthecheck,PersonB'sdemanddepositsdecreaseby$900andthecashreservesdecreaseby$900,astheproceedsofthecheckaresenttoBankII,wherethecontractor(PersonC)depositsthecheck.AssetsLiabilities&Owner’sEquityReserves(senttoBankII)-900DemandDeposits(PersonB)-900第三十一页，共57页。Example2:UsingBankBalanceSheetBankI:ThefinalchangeforBankIis:AnincreaseinDemandDepositsof(PersonA)of$1000,Anincreaseinloansof$900(PersonB),Anincreaseofcashreservesof$100.NotethatBankIiskeepingnewcashreservesof$100equalto10%ofthenewdemanddeposit,theamountconsistentwiththerequiredreserveratioof10%.AssetsLiabilities&Owner’sEquityReserves+1000DemandDeposits(PersonA)+1000Loans(PersonB)+900DemandDeposits(PersonB)+900Reserves(senttoBankII)-900DemandDeposits(PersonB)-90010001000第三十二页，共57页。OpenMarketOperation-Expansionaryr0r1M1Ms’$rnominalM0MsMD第三十三页，共57页。OpenMarketOperation-ExpansionarySPBond$DP1P0D’SecondaryMarketforBonds第三十四页，共57页。OpenMarketOperation-Expansionaryrreal$Investmentsrr0I0rr1I1第三十五页，共57页。OpenMarketOperation-ExpansionaryGoals:GDPrealwillIncreaseEmploymentwillIncreaseUnemploymentwillDecrease第三十六页，共57页。OpenMarketOperation-Contractionaryr1r0M1Ms’M0Ms$rnominalMD第三十七页，共57页。OpenMarketOperation-ContractionarySPBond$DP0S’P1SecondaryMarketforBonds第三十八页，共57页。OpenMarketOperation-ContractionaryI1rr1rreal$Investmentsrr0I0第三十九页，共57页。OpenMarketOperation-ContractionaryGoal:PriceLevelwillDecrease第四十页，共57页。Leadsto:ExpansionaryMonetaryPolicyIncreasedMoneySupplyDecreasedInterestRatesIncreasedInvestmentIncreasedAggregateDemandIncreasedGDPIncreasedEmploymentDecreasedUnemployment第四十一页，共57页。TraditionalToolsofExpansionaryMonetaryPolicyOpenMarketPurchaseofBondsbyFederalReserveLowerDiscountRateRateatwhichbanksmayborrowfromtheFederalReserveLowerRequiredReserveRatio第四十二页，共57页。ToolsofExpansionaryMonetaryPolicyRecentlyEmployedTools:QuantitativeEasingPurchasingofvariousfinancialassetswithnewlycreatedmoney.OperationTwistLoweringoflong-terminterestratesbysellingshorter-termbondsandbuyinglonger-termbonds.Aimistoencouragelong-terminvestment.第四十三页，共57页。LimitstoMonetaryPolicyBankskeepingexcessreserves.Leakageoffundstocirculatingcurrency.Timelaginmakingnewloans,reducingimmediateeffectivenessInelasticityofinvestmentandotherinterest-rateexpenditures第四十四页，共57页。2012FreeResponse第四十五页，共57页。2012FreeResponseAnswer$10,000/$100,000=.10or10%

Reducedby$5,000None.Whiledemanddepositsfallby$5,000,circulatingcashincreasesby$5,000.Sincedemanddepositsarenow$95,000;$9,500mustbekeptascashreserves.Reservesarenow$10,000($15,000-$5,000).Sothevalueofexcessreservesis$500.ByborrowingfromotherbanksattheFederalFundsRateorfrom