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GlobalDataWatch
•JunesurveyspointtomomentumslideinUSandEurope
•AsialookstobeliftingasCOVIDdragsfade
•Centralbanksonthemarch;closeto100bpofDMhikesexpectedin3Q
•Nextweek:AsiamfgPMIsup,globaldown;EMUHICPup0.7%m/m
Thewindthatshakesthebarley
Whileflaggingdownsiderisktoour2H22globalgrowthoutlookforsometime,thusfarwehavemadeonlymodestrevisionstoourforecastforareturntoabove-trendglobalgrowth.MuchofthisanticipatedaccelerationcomesfromasharpreopeningreboundinChinathathasalreadybegun.Butourfore-castelsewhere—toasolidlyabove-potential2.2%arin2H22—isundergreaterthreat.Indeed,recentdevelopmentshaveshiftedthefocusofthedebateintheUSandWesternEuropetotheriskofrecession.Ashasbeenthecaseprecedingpriordownturns,bothregionshavebeenhitbylargeadversesupplyshocksthathavepushed1H22CPIgainsabove8%ar.Thusfar,householdshavecushionedtheblowtotheirpurchasingpowerbydrawingdowntheirsavings:weestimateDMrealconsumptiongrew2%arin1H22.Butconsumerconfidenceisnowsliding,withthisweek’sEuroareaandUKJunereadingsbothapproaching40-yearlows(Figure1).UpcomingJunereadingsshouldalsoshowthatinfla-tionpressureremainsintenseatmidyear.Nextweekweexpecta0.7%m/mgainintheEuroareafollowedbyaforecasted1%m/mincreaseintheUS(July13).Bothregionsfacespecificenergysectorthreats.LimitedrefinerycapacitycouldpushUSretailgasolinepricesabove$5/gallonnextquarterwhilecur-tailedRussiangassupplyispushingEuropeanwholesalenaturalgaspricessharplyhigher.WhileGermanstoragelevelshavealreadyincreasedto58%andtheuseofcoalispickingup,industrialuserswilllikelybeforcedtorationgaslaterthisyearifRussiansupplyisnotavailable.
EasingsupplypressuresareapparentinnotabledeclinesinindustrialmetalandagriculturalcommoditypricesinrecentweeksaswellasshorteningdeliverytimesinavailableJunebusinesssurveys.However,thisreliefisoflimitedcomfortasitsmainsourceissofteningdemand.GlobalconsumergoodsspendingcontractedinthethreemonthsthroughMay(evenifaChi-nadiveisexcluded)andourglobalCapexNowproxypointstomoderating
Seepage81foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.
GlobalEconomicResearch
24June2022
EconomicandPolicyResearch
BruceKasman
(1-212)834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@
JosephLupton
(1-212)834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@
MichaelSHanson
(1-212)622-8603
michael.s.hanson@
JPMorganChaseBankNA
Contents
France:MacrononlyhaslimitedoptionsfordomesticpolicyUKvs.Scandies:Higherrates,variedsensitivity
Africa:Foodpriceshocksandthethreattofoodsecurity
12
15
18
GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4
GlobalCentralBankWatch6
Nowcastofglobalgrowth7
SelectedrecentresearchfromJ.P.Morgan
Economics9
J.P.MorganMarketWatch10
DataWatches
UnitedStates22
Euroarea29
Japan34
Canada38
Mexico40
Brazil43
Argentina45
Andeans47
UnitedKingdom49
EmergingEurope52
SouthAfrica56
AustraliaandNewZealand59
China,HongKong,andTaiwan61
Korea64
ASEAN66
India70
RegionalDataCalendars72
2
JPMorganChaseBankNA
BruceKasman(1-212)834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@
JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@
MichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603michael.s.hanson@
GlobalEconomicResearch
GlobalDataWatch
24June2022
businessspendinggains.Amidyeardownshiftinthegoodssectorisincorporatedinourforecast,butthisweek’sslideintheJuneDMmanufacturingflashnewordersPMIto47.9isasurprise.AnevengreaterdisappointmentisthelossofmomentumreflectedinthePMIservices—thesectorwherethebenefitsoffadingCOVIDrestrictionshavebeenantici-patedtogenerateamidyearlift.
TheJuneflashPMIalignswithroughly1%DMGDPgrowthandasignalconsistentwithtoourGDPnowcasterreadingsforMay-June(Figure2).Bythemselves,thesetrackersdonotpointtounusuallyelevatedrecessionrisk.Butthismomen-tumlosscombineswithheightenedriskoffurtherenergypricepressuresandDMcentralbanksfocusedoncontaininginflationrisk.Evenas3Q22GDPgrowthwilllikelyfallshortofour(andcentralbank)expectations,itisreasonabletoexpectDMpolicyratestorisecloseto100bpnextquarter.
Asthisdynamictakesholditisimportanttodistinguishbetweenamid-cyclegrowthslowdown—whichisoftenapausethatrefreshes—andaslideintorecession.Develop-mentsinglobalenergymarketsplayanimportantrole,andthelatestnewsonthisfrontisnotfavorable.Bycontrast,ourassumptionthatChinacanavoidanadditionalsetofbroad-basedlockdownsistrackingandshouldbeacatalystforAsiatoplayasignificantcushioningrole.Thereare,however,twofundamentalmacroeconomicfactorsthatwilltellthetaleaboutwhethertheglobalexpansionremainsintactasweturninto2023.
•It’seasierat0.5,2and3.ChairPowell’stestimonycon-firmstheFed’scommitmenttohavearestrictivepolicystancenextquarter,andthisaggressiveactionisreverber-atingelsewhere.However,centralbankershavenotcom-pletelyforsakentheexpansion,andweexpectthemtobecomeresponsivetogrowthdisappointmentslaterthisyearoncepolicyratesfortheECB,BoE,andFedreach0.5%,2%,and3%,respectively.ThesensitivityDMcen-tralbanksdisplayinthefaceoflikelygrowthdisappoint-mentsandstill-elevatedinflationwillbeakeydetermi-nantofthelifeofthisexpansion.
•It'salwaysaboutlabormarkets.Shocksandcentralbanksareprecipitatingcausesofarecession,butabusi-nessretrenchmentinlabormarketsistheforcethatturnsagrowthslowdownintoarecession.ValidationofourviewthattheDMcorporatesectorisinarelativelyhealthypositiontobendbutnotbreakinthefaceoflargeshockswillneedtocomeinevidencethatUSlabordemand
slowsmaterially—toroughly100kpermonthlaterthisyear—withoutadramaticincreaseinlayoffs.Asustaineddouble-digitspikeinUSinitialjoblessclaimsoveritsthree-monthaveragehasprovidedareliablesignalofaslideintorecessioninthepast.Amoveuptoaroughly
275kaveragenextquarterwouldlikelysignalaretrench-mentistakinghold(Figure3).
Figure3:USinitialjoblessclaims
3m/3m,sa
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
677277828792970207121722
Source:J.P.Morgan
AsiatocushiongrowthasOmicronfades
OffsettingbuildingdownwardmomentumintheUSandEuropeisthefadingofAsianOmicron-relateddrags.Theregion’sreopeningdynamicisalreadyunderway,apparentthisweekinthestrongreboundinJapan’sflashservicesactivityPMIandbroadstabilityinthemanufacturingoutputPMIforJune—cappinga7.3-ptrecoveryinJapan’sall-indus-tryoutputPMIsinceitbottomedinMarch.Welookformod-estgainsinChina’sJunePMIreleasesnextweekaslock-downseaseandsupplychaindislocationsfade.WhilearecoveryofIPandexportsisevidentinMaydata,individualmobilityrestrictionsmostlywerenoteaseduntilJune.AbroadeningrecoveryinChina’sJuneservicesPMIswouldsignalthatourforecastistracking.
ElsewhereastrongMayexportordersreportforTaiwanIPsurgeinSingaporeelectronicsreinforcesourview.WearealsoexpectingadditionalpolicysupportsinChinaconcentrat-edinfront-loadedinfrastructurespending.GivenimportsofindustrialcommoditiesdidnotfallwithactivityasChinaaccumulatedinventories,anysubsequentupwardpressureoncommodityimportdemandorpricesislikelytobemodestasthereopeningadvances—reinforcedbytheexpectationthatdomesticserviceswillleadthebounce.Althoughpropertymarketactivityremainssluggish,weexpectsomeimprove-mentin3Qandamoremeaningfulrecoveryinto4Qashous-ingpolicyhasbeeneasedaswell.
Themixedblessingsofaweakeryen
Sinceend-2021,theJapaneseyenhasdepreciatednearly12%onatrade-weightedbasisandover17%againsttheUSdol-lar—to135andonitswayto140byyear-endaccordingtoourFXstrategists.MuchofthismovementhasbeendrivenbyawideninggapbetweentheFed’sacceleratedhikingplansandtheBoJ’sinsistenceonmaintainingitsveryaccommoda-tivestance.WhileaweakercurrencyhasoftenbeenseenasbeneficialwithinJapan,currentviewsaremoremixed.With
3
JPMorganChaseBankNA
BruceKasman(1-212)834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@
JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@
MichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603michael.s.hanson@
GlobalEconomicResearch
GlobalDataWatch
24June2022
headlineinflationat2.5%oya(largelyduetohigherfoodandenergyprices—theBoJ’scoremeasureremainsamuted0.8%oya,reinforcingitsstance),publicopinionhasshiftedagainstthispolicybutpoliticalpressureontheBoJremainslimited.Lingeringsupply-chainconstraintshaveprecludedtheweakyenfromboostingexportvolumes;thisdynamiccanbeseenintheflashJunePMIandshouldrestrainMayIPgrowthnextweek(welookfor-0.8%m/mand-3.5%q/qin2Q).However,ithasboostedexporters’profitsdenominatedinyen,andnextweek’sJuneTankansurveyshouldshowgrowingoperatingprofitsandcapexplansexpectedamonglargefirmsforFY22.Thatsaid,sentimentofsmallerdomes-ticfirmscouldfallonhighercostsfromaweakeryen.
TighteningbiasremainsinEMAsia…
AlthoughseveralEMAsiancentralbankshaverecentlyshownsignsofmovingmoretentatively,westillseearisingregionaltrendincoreinflationencouragingmorehawkishpolicystancesovertime.Followinglastweek’ssmallerthanexpected12.5bphikeinTaiwan(reflectingdomesticOmicronconcerns),thisweekthePhilippinesonlyhiked25bpagainstourexpectationfora50bpmove.Weseebothastemporaryslowdownsinthepaceoftighteninggivenmountingpricepressures.WeexpecttheBSPtodeliverfurtherhikesovercomingmeetings,followingthroughonitscommitmenttoreturninflationtoa“target-consistentpath”overthemediumtermandtoanchorinflationexpectations.BankIndonesiaheldpolicysteadythisweekasexpected,butwepostponedtheBI’sliftoffbyamonthtoAugustasadditionallargefuelsubsidiesshouldflattenthisyear’sCPItrajectory.Againstthesemoregradualmoves,inSingaporewenowexpectfur-therpolicytighteninginanoff-cycleMASmeetinginJulythroughthere-centering(andpossibleslopesteepening)oftheNEER.
…asotherEMCBsaddfurtherhikes...
InflationarypressureshavebeenevenstrongeracrossmanyeconomiesinEMEAandLatAm,andthisweekweaccelerat-edourcallsforseveralofthosecentralbanks.Mexicohiked75bpto7.75%asexpectedbutsurprisedbycharacterizinginflationexpectationsasrisingalongwiththeiryear-endinflationforecast.Wenowseeanother75bpmoveinAugustandhaverevisedupourterminalrateprojectionby100bpto10.25%latethisyear.FollowinganannouncementofearlyelectionsinIsraelin4Q22,wenowseetheBoIemboldenedtodeliveralarger50bpmoveinJuly.Wealsoaddedanother25bphikelaterthisyeartoreach2.0%byend-2022.Similar-ly,weadded50bpin2HforSARB—with50bphikesateachofthethreeremainingmeetingsthisyear—tobringthepolicyrateto6.25%byyear-end.Theriskisforevenlargermovesgivenmorerapidtighteningglobally(includingtheFed),ahigherfoodinflationprofile,andrisksformorepronouncedFXpass-throughinSouthAfrica.
Figure4:EvolutionofEM*inflationandpolicyrateforecasts
CPIis%Dec/Dec;policyrateispercentperannum
7End-22CPI
End-22
6policyrate
5End-23
policyrate
4
3End-23CPI
Nov19,21Jan12,22Mar7,22Apr30,22Jun24,22
Source:J.P.MorganGlobalEconomics.*ExcludesChina,Turkey
…butendmaybenearingelsewhereinEM
EMcentralbanksthatarefurtheralongintheirhikingcyclesarenowpivoting—oratleastattemptingtopivot—tomorebalancedapproachesasdownsideriskstoactivitybecomemoresalient.Thatsaid,continuedupsidesurprisestoinflationandexpectationsforfurtherFedtighteningarekeepingtheheaton(Figure4).WithinflationinCzechiarunning16%oya,thisweektheCNBhiked125bpto7%asexpected.Butadovishshiftinthecompositionoftheboardandclearsignsofagrowthslowdownsuggestafinal50bpmoveinAugust.InBrazil,theminutesoftheJuneCOPOMmeetingsignaledhigherratesforlonger—consistentwithourcallforanother50bphikeinAugusttoaterminal13.75%.However,wenowpushbackourexpectationforeasingtonotstartuntillate2Q23.ThiswilltaketheSELICratedownto11%byend-2023,versus9.75%previously.NextweekColombiashouldhike150bpto7.5%—withsomeriskformoregivenboomygrowthandrisinginflationexpectations—andreachaterminal8.5%nextquarter.Atthesametime,thefrontiereconomiesofEgyptandGeorgiakeptmonetarypolicyonholddespitehigherinflationandstronggrowth.
4
JPMorganChaseBankNA
CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612
carlton.m.strong@
JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@
GlobalEconomicResearch
GlobalSummaryOutlook
24June2022
GlobalSummaryOutlook
RealGDP
RealGDP
Consumerprices
%overayearago
%overpreviousperiod,saar
%overayearago
2021
2022
2023
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
4Q212Q224Q222Q23
UnitedStates
Canada
LatinAmerica
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Asia/Pacific
Japan
Australia
NewZealand
EMAsia
China
India
ExChina/India
HongKong
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
WesternEurope
Euroarea
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Norway
Sweden
UnitedKingdom
EMEAEM
CzechRepublic
Hungary
Israel
Poland
Romania
Russia
SouthAfrica
Turkey
5.7
4.5
6.6
10.3
4.6
11.7
10.7
4.2
4.8
13.5
4.4
6.3
1.7
4.8
5.7
7.4
8.1
8.7
4.5
6.3
3.7
4.2
3.1
5.7
7.6
6.6
1.5
5.6
5.3
2.9
6.8
6.6
5.1
4.2
4.9
7.4
6.4
3.3
7.1
7.9
5.9
6.0
4.7
4.9
11.0
2.4
3.8
2.3h
2.8
1.2
1.6
6.5
3.1
2.4h
2.6
4.5
3.6i
1.7
3.6
1.6
4.1
3.7
6.6
3.9
0.4
4.8
2.7
7.2
8.5
4.3
3.3i
3.0
3.3
3.3
2.6
2.5
3.3
4.3i
3.1
1.6
3.4
1.2
3.2
5.8
5.4
6.1
6.0
-5.0
2.5
3.7
1.6
2.1
3.02.0
2.6
3.3
2.01.05.0-
i
6.9
6.6
3.5
6.3
2.7
7.0
10.5
2.9
1.0
3.1
8.3
7.6i
4.0
15.3
12.4
7.9i
7.5
7.3i
9.4
0.0
14.0
5.5
19.7
14.7
9.5
10.1
7.4
1.9
1.0
-1.4
1.8
2.8
9.2
5.6
4.7
5.2
6.2
3.2
9.1
15.6
7.4
4.1
3.9
5.6
6.2
-1.5
3.1
3.2
3.8
4.0
-3.0
4.0
3.5
4.1
-1.7
2.6
4.8
-0.5
3.1
-0.6
6.1
6.8
7.9
3.5
-11.1
3.5
2.6
16.4
7.6
2.8
4.3
4.7
2.3
2.5
0.9
-0.8
0.5
0.8i
-2.4
-3.2
3.0
4.1
3.7
8.7
-1.9
10.0
22.5
-1.4
8.0
4.9
2.5
4.5
1.7
-4.01.5-5.0
8.0
2.5
5.0
-4.00.0
-1.0
4.02.12.6
-2.3
-5.44.5
3.1
13.04.01.04.07.07.0
-1.2
1.2
1.0 1.5 2.5 1.0 2.0 1.5 4.0 1.3 -2.0 -7.4 0.5 3.0 3.6 0.0 2.4-22.0 -1.0-1.2
h
h
h
i
i
i
i
2.0
2.6
-0.1i
-1.5
-2.0
-3.0
0.0i
2.0
1.5i
9.0
1.0
5.6h
3.5
1.9
2.8
6.3h
7.5
4.5
3.7h
6.5
4.2
3.0
3.0
6.0
1.0
3.2h
3.9
2.5
2.8
4.0
2.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
1.8
-3.6
1.8
1.0
3.0
1.5
3.0
-13.0
1.5
0.4
2.0
2.3
0.2i
0.5
-1.6
0.0
0.0i
3.0
1.5h
4.0
2.4
5.2
2.5
2.8
2.2
6.0
7.3
4.0
3.4
6.0
4.2
2.5
3.0
6.0
1.3
2.8i
3.2
2.3
2.8
4.0
2.0
1.5
2.5
1.5
0.8
0.8
1.4
2.3
2.0
3.0
2.5
2.4
0.5
1.0
0.8
1.8
1.22.00.52.4
4.01.05.54.02.06.56.02.0
2.8
3.3
2.02.53.03.01.54.1
6.7
4.7
8.3
51.4
10.5
6.6
5.2
1.8
7.0
6.0
7.9
2.1
0.5
3.5
5.9
2.4
1.8
5.0
2.9
2.0
1.8
3.5
3.2
3.6
3.7
i2.7
2.4
4.6
4.6
5.4
3.3
3.7
5.8
3.4
3.3
4.9
10.3
6.1
7.1
2.5
7.7
8.0
8.3
5.4
25.8
8.4
7.3
10.060.811.9
7.8
8.09.1
6.9
3.4
2.3
7.34.4
2.9
5.45.7
3.46.1
8.07.2
9.1
23.715.810.64.3
14.1
14.417.2
6.6
72.3
h
h
h
h
i
h
i
h
i
h
6.9
6.88.0
8.74.2
7.5
5.88.3
6.6
4.7
3.3
5.35.3
3.15.8
7.6
7.8
9.521.7
17.014.14.9
16.0
13.815.2
7.4
61.5
h
h
h
i
h
i
h
h
h
i
h
3.8
2.65.1
68.65.0
5.2
3.96.1
2.7
1.8
2.4
5.42.8
2.3
3.42.7
2.02.3
3.1
3.0
5.2
8.78.310.03.310.09.25.5
5.4
18.4
hh
h
h
hh
hh
h
h
h
Global
Developedmarkets
6.0
5.2
3.0
2.7
2.61.9
5.9
5.0
2.4
0.3
0.3
2.2
3.1
2.4
3.2
2.2
2.81.8
4.7
5.1
7.2
7.5
h
6.7
6.6
h
3.5
3.3h
EmergingmarketsEmergingexChina
7.1
6.2
3.5
3.2
3.8
2.4
i
7.2
6.8i
5.5
4.3
-2.5h0.2h
4.1
1.0
4.7
2.2
4.23.0
4.1
6.4
6.9
11.4
h
6.810.4
h
h
3.9h5.3h
Global—PPPweighted
6.3
3.5
3.0
6.1i
3.3
-0.5h
2.8
3.4
3.1
4.9
8.2
h
7.5
3.9h
Source:GovernmentagenciesandJ.P.MorganGlobalEconomics.Detailsonrequest.Note:ForsomeemergingeconomiesseasonallyadjustedGDPdataareestimatedbyJ.P.Morgan.BolddenoteschangesfromlasteditionofGlobalDataWatch,witharrowsshowingthedirectionofchanges.UnderlineindicatesbeginningofJ.P.Morganforecasts.Unlessnoted,concurrentnominalGDPweightscalculatedwithcurrentFXratesareusedincomputingourglobalandregionalaggregates.RegionalCPIaggregatesexcludeArgentinaandEcuador.Source:J.P.Morgan.Anylong-formnomenclatureforreferencestoChina;HongKong;andTaiwanwithinthisresearchmaterialisMainlandChina;HongKongSAR(China)andTaiwan(China).
JPMorganChaseBankNA
CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612
carlton.m.strong@
JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@
GlobalEconomicResearch
GlobalDataWatch
24June2022
G-3economicoutlookdetail
2021
2022
2023
2021202220234Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q
UnitedStates
RealGDP
2.5 2.3 3.0 2.7 5.6-12.7149.3 -0.212.0 3.0 1.7 0.0 0.8 8.4 5.94.9
2.04.06.02.3-0.1-
6.82.0
4.0 7.0 5.0 2.0 -0.5 -3.0-10.0-10.0 3.9 0.1 0.0 2.10.2
2.5-3.5-1.22.1
2.4 3.0 5.2 -1.3 8.6 -4.5175.9 -0.6 4.010.2 2.4 1.0 -1.0 8.0 5.7 4.7 -4.2 3.9 3.74.3
1.16.0--
1.7 3.8 0.5 -2.1-10.3 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.5 -0.3 1.8 -0.2 -5.9 2.5 0.63.0
6.9 2.5 2.8 -8.3 8.9 2.2193.2 -2.622.417.9 1.8 5.3 -0.2 6.7 5.04.6
1.0-1.013.21.41.8-
7.1-0.8
4.010.1 0.3 -4.5-17.6 -1.1 3.6 1.4 4.0 -0.4 0.4 0.5-1.5
3.0
1.6 2.0 2.5 5.0 5.5 -2.6228.5 2.2 -0.9 4.2 2.2 0.2 -0.8 3.7 3.2 2.9 -3.6 2.3 3.70.7
2.3-2.4-
1.1-0.7-1.70.0-
-1.5 3.113.2 -3.611.6 0.4149.6 -2.7 -5.418.3 2.8 -1.1 -3.2 8.0 6.35.2
2.5-2.70.2-1.41.5-2.3-6.12.7
6.83.7
-0.5 0.2 -2.8 -4.8-14.7 2.0 4.613.9 -0.8 2.0 -1.6 0.9-2.1
3.3
1.3 2.0 2.5 4.0 5.0 -1.0236.1 1.9 -1.5 4.0 2.3 0.0 -1.0 3.8 3.22.9
2.32.03.21.02.5
6.42.5
1.01.23.01.0-0.5-1.01.51.00.90.0
2.45.02.73.9
1.8 2.0 2.5 4.0 6.0 -1.0238.5 2.3 -1.5 4.0 2.4 0.3 -1.0 5.4 4.03.4
2.32.03.50.03.1
6.54.0
1.01.23.01.0-0.5-1.01.51.00.90.00.12.01.1
2.45.03.22.8
2.0 2.0 2.5 7.0 6.0 -4.0221.6 2.9 -2.0 5.0 2.4 0.8 -1.2 6.9 4.83.9
3.03.60.0
2.84.05.00.0-3.6
6.65.0
2.53.05.01.0-1.0-1.00.30.02.21.0
3.2
5.7 7.913.1 -8.010.0 9.2-32.6 0.5 4.514.0 6.5 0.4 -1.2 4.7 3.6 3.3-12.112.2 5.46.2
3.91.5-
1.71.3-0.4-1.9-5.10.8-0.21.1-0.2-0.9-8.0
Privateconsumption
Equipmentinvestment
Non-residentialconstruction
Intellectualpropertyproducts
Residentialconstruction
Inventorychange($bnsaar)
GovernmentspendingExportsofgoodsandservices
ImportsofgoodsandservicesDomesticfinalsalescontributionInventoriescontribution
Nettradecontribution
Consumerprices(%oya)
Excludingfoodandenergy(%oya)CorePCEdeflator(%oya)
Federalbudgetbalance(%ofGDP,FY)Personalsavingrate(%)Unemploymentrate(%)
Industrialproduction,manufacturing
Euroarea
RealGDP
2.0
1.9
3.0
9.0
6.0
-4.0
182.9
3.5
-2.0
5.0
2.5
0.7
-1.2
8.5
5.7
4.7
3.0
3.6
0.0
Privateconsumption
Capitalinvestment
Governmentconsumption
Exportsofgoodsandservices
Importsofgoodsandservices
Domesticfinalsalescontribution
Inventoriescontribution
Nettradecontribution
Consumerprices(HICP,%oya)
exfood,alcoholandenergy
Generalgovt.budgetbalance(%ofGDP,FY)Unemploymentrate(%)
Industrialproduction
Japan
RealGDP
2.8
4.0
5.0
1.0
6.0
7.0
3.3
-0.4
-0.2
8.4
3.6
6.7
4.0
Privateconsumption
Businessinvestment
Residentialconstruction
Publicinvestment
Governmentconsumption
Exportsofgoodsandservices
Importsofgoodsandservices
Domesticfinalsalescontribution
Inventoriescontribution
Nettradecontribution
Consumerprices(%oya)
exfoodandenergy
Glending(%ofGDP,CY)Unemploymentrate(%)
Industrialproduction
3.5
6.0
5.0
1.0
-1.0
-2.0
1.5
-1.0
3.6
-0.6
0.5
1.9
0.3
Memo:Globalindustrial%oya
production
5
2.4
6.0
6.8
3.2
Source:GovernmentagenciesandJ.P.MorganGlobalEconomics.Detailsonrequest.
6
JPMorganChaseBankNA
CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612
carlton.m.strong@
JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@
GlobalEconomicResearch
GlobalCentralBankWatch
24June2022
GlobalCentralBankWatch
Official
rate
Current4-qrtrchange(bp)
rate(%pa)LastNext
LastchangeNext
mtg
Forecast
nextchange
Forecast(%pa)Jun22Sep22
Dec22Mar23Jun23
Global
2.23
88
113
2.26
2.82
3.12
3.32
3.35
excludingUS
2.41
76
89
2.46
2.85
3.08
3.25
3.30
Developed
0.82
69
154
0.87
1.65
2.05
2.27
2.36
Emerging
4.40
117
49
4.41
4.63
4.79
4.94
4.89
LatinAmerica
10.01
659
90
10.13
10.96
11.31
11.35
10.91
EMEAEM
7.92
227
72
7.94
8.05
8.16
8.79
8.65
EMAsia
2.91
18
39
2.91
3.07
3.21
3.28
3.31
TheAmericas
2.77
212
164
2.87
3.80
4.25
4.47
4.42
UnitedStates
Fedfunds1.75
150
17515Jun22(+75bp)27Jul22Jul22(+50bp)
1.75
2.75
3.25
3.50
3.50
Canada
O/Nrate1.50
125
1751Jun22(+50bp)13Jul2213Jul22(+75bp)
2.75
3.00
3.00
3.25
3.25
Brazil
SELICO/N13.25
900
-2515Jun22(+50bp)3Aug22Aug22(+50bp)
13.25
13.75
13.75
13.75
13.00
Mexico
Reporate7.75
373
25023Jun22(+75bp)11Aug2211Aug22(+75bp)
7.75
9.00
10.00
10.25
10.25
Chile
Discrate9.00
850
-257Jun22(+75bp)14Jul2213Jul22(+50bp)
9.00
10.00
10.25
9.75
8.75
Colombia
Reporate6.00
425
25029Apr22(+100bp)30Jun2230Jun22(+150bp)
7.50
8.50
8.50
8.50
8.50
Peru
Reference5.50
525
09Jun22(+50bp)7Jul227Jul22(+50bp)
5.50
6.00
6.00
6.00
5.50
Europe/Africa
1.47
64
151
1.49
2.10
2.48
2.81
2.98
Euroarea
Deporate-0.50
0
17512Sep19(-10bp)21Jul22Jul22(+25bp)
-0.50
0.25
0.75
1.00
1.25
UnitedKingdom
Bankrate1.25
115
15016Jun22(+25bp)4Aug22Aug22(+50bp)
1.25
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
Norway
Deprate1.25
125
15023Jun22(+75bp)18Aug2218Aug22(+25bp)
1.25
1.75
2.25
2.50
2.75
17528Apr19(+25bp)29Jun2230Jun22(+50bp)
Sweden
Reporate0.25
25
0.75
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
CzechRepublic
2-wkrepo7.00
650
022Jun22(+125bp)4Aug22August22(+50bp)
7.00
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.00
Hungary
Baserate5.90
500
36031May22(+50bp)28Jun22Jun22(+50bp)
6.40
7.90
9.50
9.50
9.50
Israel
Baserate0.75
65
17523May22(+40bp)4Jul224Jul22(+50bp)
0.75
1.50
2.00
2.25
2.50
Poland
7-dayinterv6.00
590
1258Jun22(+75bp)7Jul22July22(+75bp)
6.00
6.75
7.25
7.25
7.25
Romania
Baserate3.75
250
42510May(+75bp)6Jul226Jul22(+100bp)
3.75
5.75
6.75
7.75
8.00
Russia
Keypolrate9.50
400
-25010Jun22(-150bp)22Jul22Jul22(-50bp)
9.50
8.50
8.00
7.50
7.00
SouthAfrica
Reporate4.75
125
22519May22(+25bp)21Jul22Jul22(+50bp)
4.75
5.75
6.25
6.75
7.00
Turkey
1-wkrepo14.00
-1900
40016Dec21(-100bp)21Jul221Q23(+400bp)
14.00
14.00
14
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