化工-行业周报：四川等多地因高温限电硅、磷等产业链涨价TDI、制冷剂、吡啶价格持续走高

证券研究报告工8.223.77工证券研究报告工8.223.77工昆股份3.92技0.70金禾实业3.322.575.932.542.90斯特3.843.12相关报告《【兴证化工】基础化工行业周报——莱茵河水位下降或影响欧IDMF、三氯氢硅等价格上涨(20220809-20220815)》TDI、制冷剂、吡啶价格持续走高投资要点CPI本周涨幅较大的产品：金属硅(421,云南)，+23%；黄磷(贵州)，15%。hangzhiyangxyzqcomcnS03iumenglanxyzqcomcnS6本周跌幅较大的产品：盐酸(31%,长三角)，-18%；丁二烯(韩国hangzhiyangxyzqcomcnS03iumenglanxyzqcomcnS6辑来看，在安环趋严、实现“双碳”目标背景下，身处规范化重点园区、自身环保达标、拥有一体化产业链、规模化与技术领先实现的成强格局持续强化。特别是站在当前时点，化企龙头在基本面缓慢恢复的背景下，估值已跌至较低水平，以龙头公司周期底部业绩测算来看，该估值仍具有极强安全边际，化企核心资产配置性价比持续凸升、扬农化工等。风险提示：化工产品需求不达预期的风险，国际油价大幅下跌的风险，环请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-化产业链、规模化与技术领先实现的成本优势、持续稳定的资本开支等工产业格局重塑的关键力量(万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工等)。一速产品价格与价差的修复。建议关注桐昆股份、新凤鸣。着全球经济刺激退潮，原料需求边际回落，其价格有望持续降低。海运端，2022年以来，海运供需错配缓解，全球海运费出现明显回落，未利水平有望迎来持续改善，国内头部企业产能扩张迅速，抢占全球市场份额，有望迎来行业修复与自身成长的共振，投资布局价值凸显。重点轮胎主要生产原料价格小幅下降，中国-美国的海运费继续保持下降趋势。本周，天然橡胶、丁苯橡胶、顺丁橡胶、山东帘子布价格分别为0.96%、0.00%；炭黑方面，本周期原料煤焦油价格延续上行态势，部分炭黑企业为控制成本降负生产，行业开工率下降，市场价格稳定，为导体材料：国内晶圆厂扩产拉动材料需求，高端光刻胶、CMP抛光垫OCA光学级、MLCC离型膜段执行，沸石、蜂窝陶瓷等相关产品有望持续放量。关注动力电池电解液龙头天赐材料、新宙邦，正极材料龙头当升科技，光伏胶膜全球龙头化工新材料原创技术平台昊华科技，国内领先的半导体光刻胶龙头彤程新材，贯通芯片制造、封装的电子材料平台型公司雅克科技，催化材料领先企业国瓷材料、万润股份，风电叶片固化剂细分领域龙头阿科力、濮阳惠成。黄磷供应收紧，下游需求向好，价格上涨。根据隆众资讯，供应方面，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-tss较好，对高价黄磷的接受度。本周黄磷(贵州)价格上涨17.9%至3.1格主要生产地因限电或疫情开工下降，金属硅价格持续上涨。根据百川资讯，供应方面，四川地区由于持续高温，电力供需紧张形势加剧，主要硅厂基本停产；新疆地区因疫情开工下行，运输受阻，金属硅供应量整体下降。需求方面，下游多晶硅行业开工稳定，需求平稳。本周金。合盛硅业装置停车检修；湖北兴瑞、合盛硅业(泸州)装置降负荷生产。。行。海外方面，德国巴斯夫(30万吨)装置停车时间延长，万华化学位于匈牙利的子公司宝思德化学(25万吨/年)装置停产检修市场延迟I请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-4-(华东)价格上涨5.1%至1.66万元/吨；TDI-甲苯-硝酸-烧碱价差增厚玉象洪泽，河南金山，昊华骏化，奎屯锦江，广西川化天禾等厂家装置期四川以及安徽等地受限电影响，装置陆续检修或减产，市场整体供应厂等刚需采购为主。本周三聚氰胺(四川)价投资策略⚫海外政策收紧致需求边际走弱，国内新产能投产在即，周期景气或回/货币政策通道，美国耐用品消费已出现拐点；短期内国内政策托底经济“稳增长”，在“房住不炒”大背景下，地产相关化工品修复或相对加息后海外需求的边际下滑。综合来看，化工品需求压力较大，化纤等非耐用品相关化工品需求或好于耐用品相关化工品；供给方面，历经近我们认为2022年下半年化工品普遍性的景气或难再现，投资主线应聚焦于盈利确定性较高的品种。综上，把握2022年下半年化工行业投资内在市场化定价机制，叠加成品油组分价值链支撑，高油价并不影响炼油利润；当前行业处底部区间，后续存修复预期。长丝方面，行业集中度提升带动龙头单吨盈利中枢上移，前期需求遭受不可抗力致行业短期请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-5-⚫成本回落带来盈利修复确定性，产业趋势酝酿行业发展机遇：新材料C能源产业配套完备，新材料不断革新助力下游制造降本增效；“双碳”利修复。长远看，国内龙头凭高性价比优势不断抢占全球市场份额，未⚫通胀背景下，需求刚需与供给减少带来行业景气可持续的确定性：农科技、赛轮轮胎、国瓷材料、华峰化学、中国巨石、联化科技、天赐材卫星化学。的风险。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-6- 录 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-7- 行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-8- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-9- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明行业周报表1、重点跟踪化工产品价格与价差大类产品单单位更新日期本周上周周涨幅上月同期月涨幅上季度同期季度涨幅年初年内涨幅指数中国化工品价格指数CCPI---2022/08/1949084983511760225230-6.2%人民币对美元汇率(中间价)2022/08/196.80656.74131.0%6.75220.8%6.73871.0%6.37426.8%美元指数---2022/08/19108.11105.682.3%106.551.5%101.646.4%95.7412.9%S&P5002022/08/194228.484280.153961.636.7%4158.241.7%4677.03-9.6%黄金现货价美美元/盎司-2022/08/191750.751792.10-2.3%1736.950.8%1851.80-5.5%1792.60-2.3%CRB商品价格指数2022/08/19588.41590.12-0.3%576.742.0%628.71-6.4%581.83货代运价指数CFFI:中国-欧洲---2022/08/19552255220.0%55220.0%496111.3%328967.9%货代运价指数CFFI:中国-北美2022/08/19493849380.0%413419.4%350341.0%342444.2%原油WTI期货(主连合约)Brent期货(主连合约)美美元/桶美元/桶2022/08/1990.7792.0994.70115.071%78.9015.0%2022/08/1996.7298.15103.20-6.3%119.4381.7518.3%WTI期货(次月合约)美元美元/桶美元/桶22022/08/19990.44991.46992.43-2.2%112.2378.4415.3%Brent期货(次月合约)22022/08/19996.0996.996.9--0.8%998.38-2.3%115.5681.0618.5%WTI期货(第12月合约)美元美元/桶美元/桶22022/08/1984.084.0384.484.47--0.5%81.481.423.2%93.04-9.7%72.0416.6%Brent期货(第12月合约)22022/08/19991.64992.90992.70106.4578.3716.9%WTI现货Brent现货美元美元/桶美元/桶22022/08/19990.77992.09997.95-7.3%115.071%78.915.0%22022/08/19996.14999.02--2.9%103.15103.15-6.8%118.8181.9217.4%Dubai现货Cinta现货美元美元/桶美元/桶22022/08/19993.78100.21100.21--6.4%102.24102.24-8.3%112.0980.7216.2%22022/08/19909096.796.7--6.9%998.05-8.2%115.61%79.9112.6%美国原油钻井数千桶千桶口22022/08/1960601606010.0%0.0%55990.3%5744.7%48124.9%美国商业原油库存22022/08/19442495444320104426609-0.4%4198011.2%4178511.7%Brent-WTI期货主连合约价差美元美元/桶美元/桶22022/08/195.95.956.066.068.8.5-30.0%4.3636.5%2.85108.8%WTI主连合约-次月合约22022/08/1900.3300.63-47.6-47.6%22.27-85.5-85.5%2.84-88.4%0.46-28.3%Brent主连合约-次月合约美美元/桶美元/桶2022/08/190.631.25-49.6%4.84.82-86.9-86.9%3.87-83.7%0.69-8.7%WTI主连合约-第12月合约2022/08/196.747.621313.28-49.2-49.2%22.03-69.4%6.86Brent主连合约-第12月合约美元美元/桶美元/桶2022/08/195.085.25-3.3%1010.50-51.7-51.7%12.98-60.9%3.3850.4%三地原油简单三地原油简单10天平移均价22022/08/1995.6899.66-4.0%104.75-8.7%111.6877.12炼油中国中国92#汽油(镇海炼化)中国0#柴油(镇海炼化)美国87#汽油美国柴油(纽约)欧洲ARA柴油(CIF)亚洲柴油(新加坡)新加坡石脑油FOB日本石脑油CFR液化气(华东)丙烷(华东冷冻CFR)丁烷(华东冷冻CFR)元/吨元/吨元/吨元/吨美分/加仑元/吨美元/桶美元/吨美美分/加仑美分/加仑美美元/吨美美元/桶美美元/吨美元/吨2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/1922022/08/192022/08/192022/08/192022/08/192022/08/192022/08/192022/08/1922022/08/1922022/08/1922022/08/1922022/08/1922022/08/19670670103248675282873701099109937770.3068211590068680103103248675282843521047104736774.30715096050676766660.0%0.0%11.2%5.2%4.9%0.8%-5.4%-4.7%1.6%-2.5%0.6%0.6%1071078090903013013491050105034778.03756126200718718718--4.2%-4.6%-4.6%6.2%4.6%2.0%-9.9%-9.8%-4.8%-5.3%-6.7%1061066489803983984011202120249991.46867256550813813818-3.2%-3.4%-27.9-27.9%-7.7%-8.6%-8.2%1%-21.4%-9.9%861861871252222924971271291779.3574411635075775772719.8%19.8%21.8%25.2%48.4%54.3%-8.4%-0.6%-7.8%-10-请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明行业周报正正丁烷(山东)元/吨元/吨2022/08/19561955431.4%5793-3.0%66375839-3.8%基础油(150SN,东北)元/吨2022/08/19845084584500.0%0.0%8858850-4.5%8858850-4.5%721017.2%120#溶剂油(华东120#溶剂油(华东)元元/吨2022/08/19775076501.3%74504.0%75003.3%6400混调高硫180CST(华东)元/吨2022/08/19626066300-0.6%663606620011.0%502024.7%558#半炼石蜡(华南)元元/吨2022/08/19985098500.0%0.0%98500.0%0.0%970011.5%860014.5%重交沥青(华南)元/吨2022/08/194900448750.5%447253.7%44705328049.4%改性沥青(华南改性沥青(华南)元元/吨2022/08/195970594559450.4%0.4%579557953.03.0%577557753.43.4%440035.7%国内主营汽油出厂价-原油价国内主营汽油出厂价-原油价差美元/吨2022/08/19269.82268.79268.790.4%0.4%286.85286.85--5.9%155.18155.18773.9%221.3221.9%国内主营柴油出厂价-原油价国内主营柴油出厂价-原油价差美元/吨2022/08/19163.64161.59161.5911.3%174.72174.72--6.3%43.5743.572275.6%128.55128.5527.3%国内主营成品油价-原油价国内主营成品油价-原油价差美元/吨2022/08/19135.85135.270.4%144.7276.07778.6%110.25110.2523.2%国国际汽油市场价-原油价差美元/吨2022/08/19262.47240.439.2%261.980.2%472.65-44.5-44.5%176.67176.6748.6%国国际柴油市场价-原油价差美元/吨2022/08/19396.33330.7919.8%284.5539.3%322.30223.0%145.20145.20173.0%国国际成品油市场价-WTI原油价差美元/吨2022/08/19225.32201.1412.0%203.3010.8%255.09114.7796.3%国国际成品油市场价-Brent原油价差美元/美元/吨22022/08/19202.58202.58177.98177.9813.8%13.8%170.81170.8118.6%238.43103.8795.0%美美湾WTI321价差美美元/桶22022/08/19336.92332.09330.8319.7%47.25-21.9%15.56137.3%美湾美湾Brent321价差美美元/桶22022/08/19331.4025.025.01225.5%26.226.2719.5%43.31-27.5%12.47151.8%亚洲亚洲Minas321价差美美元/桶22022/08/1925.125.101717.80441.0%1515.4162.9%26.24-4.4%9.89153.7%美国HenryHub期货(主连合约)英英国NBP现货(远期合约)美国HenryHub现货美国美国N.Y.Hub现货美元美元/MMBtu22022/08/199.349.3488.776.56.5%88.3012.5%8.737.0%3.92138.4%便便士/Therm22022/08/1937237236536511.9%2828032.9%30186.2%9590.8%美元美元/MMBtu22022/08/199.119.1188.7%8.2510.4%3.83137.9%美元/美元/MMBtu美元/MMBtu22022/08/1988.1577.5188.5%88.317.715.7%9.25天然气天然气GPL现货中国中国LNG现货(华北)美美国天然气库存22022/08/1942.6642.6644.44.3--3.7%331.5235.3%17.68141.3%27.1956.9%美元美元/MMBtu22022/08/1921.121.1621.521.5621.421.4422.5423.86美元美元/MMBtu22022/08/19556.01550.6310.6%10.6%337.8747.9%24.3431.27十亿立方英尺十亿立方英尺元/吨2022/08/192022/08/192022/08/19251962519690025016250169000.0%0.0%240162401620011.3%6680018191.5%51005100319535.3%0.7%0.7%44.9%38.5%-21.2%煤焦精煤(太原)焦精煤(太原)无烟煤(Q6500,晋城)烟煤(Q5500,山西优混)动动力煤(Q5500,环渤海指数)煤焦油(华东煤焦油(华东)元/吨元/吨元/吨22022/08/192022/08/191770177011601770177011450.0%1228189012281890--6.3%1760176012100.6%179017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