BP世界能源展望2023 Energy Outlook

onomentumonActintheUS.ButthescaleofyareasesthengrseContentsOverviewChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022ricityAnnexAcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentum12|OverviewAcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentum12|OverviewCarbonemissions2GtofCOe2454035302520200020102020203020402050CarbonemissionsincludeCO2emissionsfromenergyuse,industrialprocesses,naturalgasflaring,andmethaneemissionsfromenergyproduction.Keypointsbp’sEnergyOutlook2023usesthreeThescenariosconsidercarbonemissionsscenarios(Accelerated,NetZeroandNewfromenergyproductionanduse,Momentum)toconsiderarangeofpossiblemostnon-energyrelatedindustrialpathwaysfortheglobalenergysystemtoprocesses,andnaturalgasflaringplus2050andtohelpshapearesilientstrategymethaneemissionsfromtheproduction,forbp.transmission,anddistributionoffossilfuels(seepages96-97ofthetohappen.Rather,thescenariosareAcceleratedandNetZeroexploredesignedtospanawiderangeofthehowdifferentelementsoftheenergyoutcomespossibleoutto2050.Indoingsystemmightchangeinordertoso,theyinformbp’scorebeliefsaboutachieveasubstantialreductionincarbontheenergytransitionandhelpshapeemissions.Inthatsense,theycanbeastrategythatisresilienttothemanyviewedas‘whatif’scenarios:whatuncertaintiessurroundingthespeedandelementsoftheenergysystemmightnatureoftheenergytransition.needtochangeiftheworldcollectivelyionsnutlookeditionThecarbonemissionsremaininginNetsystemorbythedeploymentofcarbondioxideremovalCDRseepages-79).ThiswilldependonthecostsofCDRandofabatinggreenhousegassesemanatingeenergysystemneitherOutlook.-40%-60%-80%14-40%-60%-80%14|OverviewCumulativeCO2eemissionsfromenergy(2015-2050)22900800700IPCCleIPCCth75thleNetZeroAccelerated600CCCumulativeCOeemissionsin2015-2050aretheadditionoffromenergyandindustrialprocesses,flaring,andmethaneemissionsChangeinfossilfuelsinIPCC1.5°Cscenarios0%-20%IPCC1.5°CinterquartilerangeNetZero-100%OilNaturalgasCoalorlimitedovershootandCscenarioswithimmediateaction.SeeAnnexforselectionofIPCCscenariosKeypointsg15|bpEnergyOutlook:2023edition2CumulativeCOeemissionsin2ssionsinAcceleratedlieswithintheForNetZero,cumulativeCO2eemissionsfIPCCscenariosconsistentwith5ºCneoutanIPCCscenarioconsistentissionsdeclinebyby2COemissionsfrom‘fossilfuelsand2alfyAcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentumAcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentumOverviewEJEJ2000201020202030204020500NewNewMomentumAcceleratedNetZeroicityNaturalgasOilsNetZeroNewMomentumOverviewNetZeroNewMomentumOverviewssilfuels80%60%40%20%0%2019202520302035204020452050Electricity60%40%20%0%201920252030203520402045205080%60%40%20%0%2019202520302035204020452050AcceleratedAccelerated20%%0%2019202520302035204020452050nChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022ChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022WeakereconomicgrowthChangingmixofglobalenergysupplies23|bpEnergyOutlook:2023editionWorldDevelopedEmerging20502025203524|ChangessinceWorldDevelopedEmerging20502025203524|ChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022ImpactofRussia-UkrainewaronglobalGDPetoEOChangeintotalfinalconsumptioninAcceleratedetoEO0%-2%-4%-6%-8%0%-2%-4%-6%DuetoefficiencygainsDuetolowerGDP-8%203522035EO22=EnergyOutlook2022Keypointsdn2050.25|bpEnergyOutlook:2023editionBeyond2030,thelowerlevelofGDPatedwiththelowerandinterconnectedness.GlobalGDPgrowthaveragesaroundpa.(onaisovertheoutlookcomparedwith.6%inEnergyOutlook2022.deconomicgrowthisgreatestinthosetransfers.In2050,GDPinChinais7%12%lowerinAfrica,butisonly1%lowerintheUS.dbetween5.5%-6%in2050.bpEnergyOutlook2023edition0%-0.5%-1%-1.5%-2%260%-0.5%-1%-1.5%-2%26|ChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022ChangeinprimaryenergyinNewMomentumhangeinrelativetoEO6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%TotalOilNaturalgasCoalNuclearRenewablesHydroChangeincarbonintensityinNewMomentumetoEO-2.5%202520302035204020452050Basedontotalfinalconsumption.ImpactofIRAnotincluded.KeypointsTheincreasedimportanceplacedonhegasarethetwofocusonenergysecurity(seepages22-23).InNewMomentum,the2%largelyaccountedforbya5%downwardrevisiontooildemandand6%lowerstconcentratedinemergingAsiaandimports.CoalconsumptionisalsolowerthanyuseofdomesticcoalresourcesinmanypartsofAsia.y5%50%45%40%35%30%%20%EnergyOutlook2022EnergyOutlook20235%50%45%40%35%30%%20%EnergyOutlook2022EnergyOutlook2023ChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022Oil&gasimportsasashareofprimaryenergyinNewMomentum20002010202020302040205035%30%%20%10%5%0%20002010202020302040205035%30%35%%20%%0%200020102020203020402050aseernNetZeroNetZeroNewNetZeroMomentumLowercarbonNewMomentum intensityNetZeroNetZeroNewNetZeroMomentumLowercarbonNewMomentum intensityLowerGDPNewMomentum203020402050fuelsonlyChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022O00Carbonemissions:EO23versusEO22inNewMomentum22EnergyEnergyOutlook2022EnergyOutlook2023200020102020203020402050rhmChangessinceChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022EO23versusEO22inNewMomentum0-0.50204020452050tradein2030:EO23versusEO22inNewMomentum0GasDemandLNGTradePipelinetradeDomesticproductionLNGtradeLNGexports(excl.Russia)RussiaLNGexportsstntumRussianoile2022.o5000AcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentumChangessinceEnergyOutlook20225000AcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentumChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022EOEOEO22EO23EO22EO23DomesticproductionOthernetpipelineimportsRussianLNGimportsOutlook2022.NetZeroChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022NetZeroChangessinceEnergyOutlook2022arbonemissions22AcceleratedNewMomentum102020203020402050cenarioUSMomentuminmoreOutlook2022.NetZeroNewMomentum02025203020352040NetZeroNewMomentum0202520302035204020452050Oilversus2019inAccelerated2019Accelerated0TotaldistancetravelledFueleconomyAlternativefuels2050.rtInyaccountsformorethantwicetheimpactThesinglebiggestfactordrivingtheonoildemandthantheeffectsofgreaterdeclineinoilconsumptionisthefallingefficiency.OilOilGlobalvehicleparcinAccelerated:1600203020402050GasincludesbiomethaneBatteryelectricinhybridConventionalICETotalenergyusagebyfuelinAccelerated:EJEJEJ8642020302040205086420203020402050elong-distanceusecases.ThechoiceMomentum.Acce/eratedNetZeroNewMomentumUStightoilOPECNon-OPEC(excl.Russia)RussiaNewMomentumOilAcce/eratedNetZeroNewMomentumUStightoilOPECNon-OPEC(excl.Russia)RussiaNewMomentumOil080%AcceleratedAcceleratedNetZero60%50%40%30%20%200020102020203020402050overtime,asUStightoilgrowsovertheand40s,asUStightformationsmature,restofthisdecadeafterwhichitdeclinesandOPECadoptsamorecompetitiveasthemostproductivelocationsarestrategyagainstabackdropofexhaustedandOPECcompetestoincreaseacceleratingdeclinesinoildemand.USitsmarketshare.Thereisasustainedtightoildropstoaround2Mb/dorlessindeclineinRussianproduction.AcceleratedandNetZeroby2050,andUStightoil–includingnaturalgasliquidsUStightoil–includingnaturalgasliquidswherethepressuresfromfallinglevelsof(NGLs)–growsoverthefirst10yearsoroveralldemandarelessacute.allthreescenarios.BrazilianandGuyanaoutlook,fallingfromaround11.5Mb/dinoutputalsoincreasesoverthenext102019tobetween5.5-6.5Mb/din2035yearsorso,reachingaround5Mb/dandinAcceleratedandNetZeroandto2.5dorlessbyThereductionsinn||AcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentumNaturalgasAcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentumNaturalgasChange,Bcm02000201020202030204020500NewNewMNewMomentumNetroNetNetroAcceleratederdnAccelerated NetZeroNewMomentumNaturalgasAccelerated NetZeroNewMomentumNaturalgas02000201020202030204020500New 201920302050 DevelopedAsiaOtheremergingOtheremergingAsiaswitchawayfromnaturalgastolowerTherangeofuncertaintyinLNGtradecarbonenergysources.increasesmateriallypost2030.ImportsNetZero.Acce/eratedNewMomentumNewMomentumNetZeroAcce/eratedNetZero 0201920302050NaturalgasAcce/eratedNewMomentumNewMomentumNetZeroAcce/eratedNetZero 0201920302050NaturalgasRussiaMiddleEastUS0Acce/eratedNetZeroNewMomentum2019EO22EO23EO22EO23EO22EO23NGlowerin2035and15-50BcmlowerinAustralianLNGexportsdeclinepost-2050acrossthethreescenariosthanin2030inallthreescenariosreflectinglastyear’sEnergyOutlook(seepages32-increasingcostsandconstraintson33).upstreamnaturalgasproductioninsRenewableRenewableenergyRenewableenergyRangeofwindandsolarcapacitybuildratesInstalledwindandsolarcapacityinthethreescenarios2022-2035AccelerateAcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentum0200020102020203020402050USEUChinaIndiaRestofs57|bpEnergyOutlook:2023editionRenewableenergyRenewableenergyBioenergysupplybytypeinAccelerated(2019-2050)BioenergydemandbysectorinAccelerated(2019-2050)EJEJ0solid0Heatandpowern60%AcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentum 50%40%30%20%60%AcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentum 50%40%30%20%ElectricityRangeofelectrificationion80%60%40%20%9AcceleratedNetZeroNewMomentum0%2000201020202030204020500%0%2000201020202030204020500NetZeroAcceleratedNewMomentumElectricity0NetZeroAcceleratedNewMomentumElectricityCarbonintensityofpowergenerationElectricitygenerationbyfuelinAccelerated04000000 2050 200020102020203020402050by2050inNewMomentum.65|bpEnergyOutlook:2023editions000Electricity000ElectricityonEmerging(exclChina)2Gas0002019-302030-5002019-302030-50e0NetZeroNetZeroAcceleratedNetZeroAccelerated0NetZeroNetZeroAcceleratedNetZeroAcceleratedLow-carbonhydrogenrtAcceleratedNetZeroNetZero071|bpEnergyOutlook:2023edition00AcceleratedNetZeroAcceleratedNetZeroNetZeroAcceleratedNetZeroAcceleratedLow-carbonhydrogen00AcceleratedNetZeroAcceleratedNetZeroNetZeroAcceleratedNetZeroAcceleratedLow-carbonhydrogennCarbonmitigationandremovalsCarbonmitigationandremovalsCarboncapture,useandstoragebyemissionssourceCarboncapture,useandstoragebyregion22000NewMomentumAcce/eratedNetZero203520502035205020352050IndustrialprocessemissionsBECCSGas22000NewMomentumAcce/eratedNetZero203520502035205020352050OtherIndiaChina77|bpEnergyOutlook:2023editioneetalUncertainstoragebonBECCSBECCSBECCSCarbonmitigationandremovalsBECCSBECCSBECCSCarbonmitigationandremovals222200-82020202520302035204020452050Maximumandminimumofbarsare10and90percentilesofIPCCscenarios2NCScaneitherreduceCOemissionsor2