Chap财务报表分析实用

会计学1Chap财务报表分析实用19-2IncomeStatement:损益表ProfitabilityovertimeBalanceSheet:平衡表FinancialconditionatapointintimeStatementofCashFlows:现金流量表Tracksthecashimplicationsoftransactions.FinancialStatements财务报表2第1页/共29页19-3Table19.1ConsolidatedStatementofIncomeforHewlett-Packard,2009惠普公司的合并损益表3第2页/共29页19-4Table19.2ConsolidatedBalanceSheetforHewlett-Packard,2009惠普公司的合并资产负债表4第3页/共29页19-5Table19.3StatementofCashFlowsforHewlett-Packard,2009惠普公司的合并现金流量表5第4页/共29页19-6AccountingVersusEconomicEarnings

会计利润和经济利润Economicearnings经济利润Sustainablecashflowthatcanbepaidtostockholderswithoutimpairingproductivecapacityofthefirm投资者得到的现金流，不伤害公司的持续发展，或者是真实利润Accountingearnings会计利润Affectedbyconventionsregardingthevaluationofassets，会计报表反映出来的经济利润，受到各类计价方式和其他因素的影响6第5页/共29页19-7ProfitabilityMeasures盈利能力度量ROEmeasuresprofitabilityforcontributorsofequitycapital.After-taxprofit/bookvalueofequityROAmeasuresprofitabilityforallcontributorsofcapital.EBIT/totalassets净资产收益率ROE，资本收益率ROA息税前利润EBIT（Interestrate,Tax)7第6页/共29页19-8Pastvs.FutureROE历史与未来ROEisakeydeterminantofearningsgrowth.净资产收益是收益增长的重要指标Pastprofitabilitydoesnotguaranteefutureprofitability.过去不等于未来Securityvaluesarebasedonfutureprofits.Expectationsoffuturedividendsdeterminetoday’sstockvalue.证券价值由未来盈利决定8第7页/共29页19-9FinancialLeverageandROE

财务杠杆与ROEROEcandifferfromROAbecauseofleverage.财务杠杆导致两者不同LeveragemakesROEmorevolatile.财务杠杆可以使得ROE不稳定Lett=taxrateandr=interestrate,then:9第8页/共29页19-10FinancialLeverageandROE

财务杠杆与ROEIfthereisnodebtorROA=r,ROEwillsimplyequalROA(1-t).IfROA>r,thefirmearnsmorethanitpaysouttocreditorsandROEincreases.IfROA<r,ROEwilldeclineasafunctionofthedebt-to-equityratio.ROE与ROA的关系由基本利率决定10第9页/共29页19-11Table19.5ImpactofFinancial

LeverageonROE财务杠杆的影响11第10页/共29页19-12ROE=NetProfitPretaxProfitxPretaxProfitEBITxEBITSalesSalesAssetsxxAssetsEquity

(1)x(2)x(3)x(4)x(5)xMarginxTurnoverxLeverageTaxBurdenInterestBurdenDecompositionofROE

DuPontMethod杜邦分解法x12第11页/共29页19-13DecompositionofROA

ROA的分解ROA=EBIT/SalesXSales/Assets=marginXturnoverMarginandturnoverareunaffectedbyleverage.边际收益不受杠杆影响ROAreflectssoundnessoffirm’soperations,regardlessofhowtheyarefinanced.资本收益反映公司的运作管理13第12页/共29页19-14DecompositionofROE

ROE的分解ROE=TaxburdenXROAXCompoundleveragefactorTaxburdenisnotaffectedbyleverage.Compoundleveragefactor=InterestburdenXLeverage税负情况不受杠杆影响复合杠杆因子=利率负担*杠杆14第13页/共29页19-15Table19.6RatioDecompositionAnalysisforNodettandSomdett比例分解对比分析15第14页/共29页19-16ChoosingaBenchmark

选择行业标杆Comparethecompany’sratiosacrosstime.沿时间轴纵向比较公司比率Compareratiosoffirmsinthesameindustry.行业内横向比较公司比率Cross-industrycomparisonscanbemisleading.跨行业的比较具有误导性，不提倡16第15页/共29页19-17Table19.7DifferencesbetweenProfitMarginandAssetTurnoveracrossIndustries

不同行业的利润率与总资产周转率不同17第16页/共29页19-18Table19.9SummaryofKeyFinancialRatios关键财务指标的总结18第17页/共29页19-19Table19.9SummaryofKeyFinancialRatios关键财务指标的总结19第18页/共29页19-20Table19.9SummaryofKeyFinancialRatios关键财务指标的总结20第19页/共29页19-21Table19.9SummaryofKeyFinancialRatios关键财务指标的总结21第20页/共29页19-22Table19.9SummaryofKeyFinancialRatios关键财务指标的总结22第21页/共29页19-23Figure19.1DuPontDecompositionforHewlett-Packard惠普公司的杜邦分解：时间线23第22页/共29页19-24EconomicValueAdded经济增加值EVAisthedifferencebetweenreturnonassets(ROA)andtheopportunitycostofcapital(k),multipliedbythecapitalinvestedinthefirm.EVAisalsocalledresidualincomeIfROA>k,valueisaddedtothefirm.（资产收益率-资本机会成本）*资本投资，也称为剩余收入24第23页/共29页19-25Example19.4Wal-Mart沃尔玛案例In2009,Wal-Mart’scostofcapitalwas5.9%.ItsROAwas9.6%anditscapitalbasewas$115billion.Wal-Mart’sEVA=(0.096-0.059)x$115billion=$4.25billion25第24页/共29页19-26AccountingDifferences会计差异InventoryValuation存货估值Depreciation贬值InflationandInterestExpense通货膨胀FairValueAccounting公允价值会计QualityofEarnings盈余质量InternationalAccountingConventions国际会计惯例ComparabilityProblems可比性问题26第25页/共29页19-27InternationalAccountingDifferencesReserves–manyothercountriesallowmoreflexibilityinuseofreserves预留准备金Depreciation–USallowsseparatetaxandreportingpresentations折旧Intangibles–treatmentvarieswidely无形资产27第26页/共29页19-28Figure19.2AdjustedVersusReportedPrice-EarningsRatios调整市盈率/报告市盈率28第27页/共29页19-29TheGrahamTechniqu