课件-跨国公司理财-第3周

Chapter2TheInternationalMonetarySystemTopicsHistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystemContemporaryCurrencyRegimes2编辑pptHistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystemTheGoldStandard(1876–1913)“Rulesofthegame”:eachcountrysettherateatwhichitscurrencyunitcouldbeconvertedtoaweightofgoldCurrencyexchangerateswere“fixed”3编辑pptHistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystemTheInter-WarYears&WWII(1914-1944)Currencieswereallowedtofluctuateoverafairlywiderangeintermsofgold.DuringWWIItheUSdollarwastheonlymajortradingcurrencythatcontinuedtobeconvertible4编辑pptHistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystemBrettonWoodsandtheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)(1944)establishedaUSdollarbasedinternationalmonetarysystemcreatedtwonewinstitutionsInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)WorldBankSpecialDrawingRight(SDR)5编辑pptHistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystemEurocurrenciesThesearedomesticcurrenciesofonecountryondepositinasecondcountrytwovaluablepurposes:holdingexcesscorporateliquidityasourceofshort-termbankloans6编辑pptHistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystemEurocurrencyInterestRates:LIBORAttractbothdepositorsandborrowerstoEurocurrencymarkets.LoanratearelowerDepositratearehigher7编辑pptContemporarycurrencyregimesDemonetizationofgoldDiversificationofinternationalreservesLegalizationofFloatingregime8编辑pptContemporarycurrencyregimesTheIMF’sExchangeRateRegimeClassifications:ExchangearrangementswithnoseparatelegaltenderCurrencyboardarrangementsOtherconventionalfixedpegarrangementsPeggedexchangerateswithinhorizontalbandsCrawlingpegsExchangerateswithincrawlingpegsManagedfloatingwithnopre-announcedpathIndependentfloating9编辑pptContemporarycurrencyregimesThechoicebetweenFixedandFlexible

RatesAnation’schoicereflectsnationalprioritiesincluding:inflation,unemployment,interestratelevels,tradebalances,economicgrowth.10编辑pptFixedVersusFlexible

ExchangeRatesCountrieswouldpreferafixedrateregimeforthefollowingreasons:stabilityininternationalpricesinherentanti-inflationarynatureTheproblemsoffixedrateregime:maintainlargequantitiesofinternationalreservesFixedratescanbemaintainedatratesthatareinconsistentwitheconomicfundamentals11编辑pptAttributesofthe“Ideal”CurrencyPossessesthreeattributes,oftenreferredtoastheImpossibleTrinity:ExchangeratestabilityFullfinancialintegrationMonetaryindependenceTheforcesofeconomicstonotallowthesimultaneousachievementofallthree12编辑pptEmergingMarkets

andRegimeChoicesAcurrencyboardexistswhenacountry’scentralbankcommitstobackitsmonetarybase–itsmoneysupply–entirelywithforeignreservesatalltimes.Thismeansthataunitofdomesticcurrencycannotbeintroducedintotheeconomywithoutanadditionalunitofforeignexchangereservesbeingobtainedfirst.Argentinamovedfromamanagedexchangeratetoacurrencyboardin1991In2002,thecountryendedthecurrencyboardasaresultofsubstantialeconomicandpoliticalturmoil13编辑pptEmergingMarkets

andRegimeChoicesDollarizationistheuseoftheUSdollarastheofficialcurrencyofthecountry.Oneattractionofdollarizationisthatsoundmonetaryandexchange-ratepoliciesnolongerdependontheintelligenceanddisciplineofdomesticpolicymakers.Panamahasusedthedollarasitsofficialcurrencysince1907EcuadorreplaceditsdomesticcurrencywiththeUSdollarinSeptember,200014编辑pptTheEuro:

BirthofaEuropeanCurrencyInDecember1991,themembersoftheEuropeanUnionmetatMaastricht,theNetherlandstofinalizeatreatythatchangedEurope’scurrencyfuture.ThistreatysetoutatimetableandaplantoreplaceallindividualECUcurrencieswithasinglecurrencycalledtheeuro.15编辑pptTheEuro:

BirthofaEuropeanCurrencyTopreparefortheEMU,aconvergencecriteriawaslaidoutwherebyeachmembercountrywasresponsibleformanagingthefollowingtoaspecificlevel:NominalinflationratesLong-terminterestratesFiscaldeficitsGovernmentdebtInaddition,astrongcentralbank,calledtheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB),wasestablishedinFrankfurt,Germany.16编辑pptEffectsoftheEuroTheeuroaffectsmarketsinthreeways:CheapertransactionscostsintheEuroZoneCurrencyrisksandcostsrelatedtouncertaintyarereducedAllconsumersandbusinessesbothinsideandoutsidetheEuroZoneenjoypricetransparencyandincreasedprice-basedcompetition

17编辑pptAchievingMonetaryUnificationIftheeuroistobesuccessful,itmusthaveasolideconomicfoundation.Theprimarydriverofacurrency’svalueisitsabilitytomaintainitspurchasingpower.Thesinglelargestthreattomaintainingpurchasingpowerisinflation,sothejoboftheEUhasbeentopreventinflationaryforcesfromunderminingtheeuro.18编辑pptExchangeRateRegimes:

TheFutureAllexchangerateregimesmustdealwiththetradeoffbetweenrulesanddiscretion(vertical),aswellasbetweencooperationandindependence(horizontal)(seeexhibit2.8)ThepreWWIGoldStandardrequiredadherencetorulesandallowedindependenceTheBrettonWoodsagreement(andtoacertainextenttheEMS)alsorequiredadherencetorulesinadditiontocooperationThepresentsystemischaracterizedbynorules,withvaryingdegreesofcooperationManybelievethatanewinternationalmonetarysystemcouldsucceedonlyifitcombinedcooperationamongnationswithindividualdiscretiontopursuedomesticsocial,economic,andfinancialgoals19编辑pptMini-CaseQuestions:TheRevaluationoftheChineseYuanManyChinesecriticshadurgedChinatorevaluetheyuanby20%ormore.WhatwouldtheChineseyuan’svaluebeinUSdollarsifithadindeedbeendevaluedby20%?DoyoubelievethattherevaluationoftheChineseyeanwaspolit