资产发展与财务-深圳-david-wangxd

PropertyDevelopmentandFinance

资产发展与财务Lecturer:YUYONG1Part1INTRODUCTION2

CHAPTER1:INTRODUCTIONTOTHEPROPERTYDEVELPOMENTPROCESS

对房地产开发过程的介绍Section1. Introduction （介绍） Section2. Theeconomiccontextofpropertydevelopment（房地产业发展的经济背景）

3

Section1. Introduction

DefinitionPropertydevelopmentistheprocessbywhichbuildingsareerectedforoccupationorforsale/investment.房地产开发是一个从建设到处置的过程EssentialpointPropertydevelopmentismuchlikeanyothereconomicactivity,itactstosatisfywantswiththeapplicationofscarceresources.

房地产开发像其它商业活动一样是一个在无限需求中分配有限资源的过程。4Thedevelopmentprocess开发过程choosingalocation位置选择;identifyingasiteandcarryingoutadetailedsitesurvey地点选择与勘察;providinganoutlineschemeandappraisal制定开发计划和可研;negotiatingforsiteacquisition土地谈判;Design初设;planningconsent规划审批;Finance融资;siteacquisition获取土地;detailedplans详细设计;tenderdocuments招投标;Construction建设;occupationormarketingandmanagement处置.5BasicFormulasvalue‑cost=profitGDV‑(buildingcosts+sitevalue)=profitthegrossdevelopmentvalue(GDV开发总值)

GDV‑(buildingcosts+profit)=EUV(existingusevalue剩余使用价值)

6SomeConceptsValueofthesite: whichdependsonlocation,use(underplanninglaw),topography,legalconstraints,groundconditions,servicesandaccess.土地价值取决于位置、用途、地形、法律限制、地况和基础设施。Valueoftheproposeddevelopment: whichdependsonuse,density,design,layoutandinfrastructure.预计的开发价值取决于用途、容积率、设计、布局和基础设施。Costofconstruction: whichdependsonsize,design,typeofbuildings,planningconstraintsonbuildings,landscapingandprovisionofservicesandaccess.建设成本取决于规模、设计、建筑类型、规划约束、景观及基础设施。7Approachestovaluingthedevelopmentproperty

theinvestmentmethod投资法（重置成本法）;thecomparativemethod比较法;thecontractor‘stest成本加成法(acostbasedmethod)theprofitsmethod收益法;and,theresidualvaluation余值法.8Partiesinthedevelopmentprocess

地产开发的参与者Theprofessionaladvisors专家Theclients客户Theplanningauthority规划部门Thecontractor施工方Thecommunity社区Thefunders资金方9SECTION2:THEECONOMICCONTEXTOFPROPERTYDEVELOPMENT房地产业发展的经济背景HistorictraceKeynesianapproachto‘demandmanagement’凯恩斯主义与需求管理

The‘supplyside’ofmacroeconomics供给学派Developmentproperty房地产业的发展10Twoviews两种观点Fromeconomists’aspect宏观政府方面Economistsarebasicallyinterestedintheinfluenceofpropertyoneconomicgrowthandefficiencyandtheeffectoflocationonfirmsandjobs.

经济增长和就业Frompropertydevelopers’aspect

微观企业方面Propertydeveloperstendtoapproachpropertyfromadifferentviewfromeconomists.Theyarelikelytofocusonanarrowbandofthepropertymarket,moreconcernedwiththemarketabilityandprofitabilityofpotentialdevelopments.

盈利11Optimalsizeofbuilding

最优开发规模UnitsofaccommodationSitevalueMCMRXPQYV12MR边际收入= theextrarevenuetobeearnedfromtheadditionofeachsuccessiveunitofaccommodationtoafixedareaofland.Theextraaccommodationisathigher,lessaccessiblelevelsandthusvaluefalls(decreasingmarginalproductivity).MC边际成本= theadditionalcostsofeachextraunitofaccommodation.Initiallythisfalls(ieinbuildingasecondstorey)butthenitincreases(extralifts,expensivefoundations,projectperiodlengthens).PQY= theprofitthedeveloperwillmakefromthesite(thedifferencebetweenthetotalrevenueandcost).13Part2FINANCIALAPPRAISAL财务评价14CHAPTER2:THEDEVELOPMENTAPPRAISAL开发评价Section1.Introduction Section2.Sitefinding 寻找土地 Section3.Siteappraisal土地评价 Section4.Planningconsiderations规划安排 Section5.Marketresearch市场调研 15Section1. IntroductionTheselectionofasitefundamentallyaffectsthenatureandsuccessofadevelopment.Noamountofcarefuldesignorpromotioncantotallyovercomethedisadvantageofpoorlocation.土地的重要性就在于它决定了开发的性质和成功与否。这些往往不是后期的设计和促销工作能替代的。16Section2. Sitefinding土地寻找的影响因素Thedevelopermayhaveabusinessstrategywhichrestrictstheoperationstoageographiclocationorrestrictsactivitytoparticulartypesofdevelopment

公司的发展战略

17Distancetodevelopmentsitesmaybeaproblemineffectivelymanagingsites.开发距离Thedeveloper‘sskillandknowledgeisimportantinidentifyingareasofpotentialgrowth开发商的专业知识.Thereleaseoflocalauthoritylandwillhaveregardtomarketconditionsbutwillalsobeinfluencedbytheprovisionsoftheirdevelopmentplans政府规划18Sitedisposals土地的处置方式Informaltenderandinvitationstooffer邀标.

Thedeveloperwillhavetheabilitytorenegotiatethepricebeforeexchangeofcontracts

Formaltenders投标

Developersdonotlikeformaltendersasitreducestheirflexibilityandincreasestheirrisk.

Competitions竞标Thesecompetitionsareusedwhenfinancialconsiderationsarenottheonlycriteriaforthedisposalofthesite.

Auctions.拍卖19Section3. Siteappraisal土地评价Access通道Accessisimportantfromalegalpointofview.Youhavetoascertainifaccessisprovidedfromasitetoapublicrightofwaysuchasaroadorhighwayadoptedbythelocalauthority.Iftheroadhasbeenadopted,thenresearchintothedeedstodiscovertheextentofrightsoveraccessroadswillneedtobecarriedout.20GroundConditions土地状况Thegroundconditionsofasitewillbeextremelyimportantwhetherthesitehasbeenanagriculturalsite,wastelandorapreviouslyusedsite.21SurfaceLandscapeandBoundaries地面景观和边界Theexistingsurfacelandscapemaybetreasuredonalocalornationallevel.Theseaspectsmayrelatetoplanninglaw.Ownershipoftheboundariesshouldalsobenotedfromthedeedsbuttherecanbedisagreementwhereboundarieshavebeenreplacedorwhereonepartyhasmaintainedthefenceasopposedtoanother.22Services基础设施Servicesmaygooverorundertheland.Thoserunningoverareusuallycables,probablyelectricityortelephonecables.Thoserunningbelowthegroundmaybecablesordrainruns.23Contamination污染Contaminationisakeyproblemandcanrenderlandvalueless.24Governmentassistance优惠政策Governmentassistanceisavailabletodeveloperstoassistindevelopingsitesincertainlocationsundercertaincriteria.Theloansavailableincludemoneyforcitygrantsandallowancesinenterprisezonesandurbandevelopmentcorporationareas.Assistanceisalsoprovidedthroughthesimplifiedplanningzones.25SECTION4:PLANNINGCONSIDERATIONS规划阶段Theplanningsystem规划系统

Anyonewishingtocarryoutdevelopmentforwhichplanningconsentisrequiredmustapplytothelocalplanningauthoritywhichisnormallythelocaldistrictcouncil.

任何需要做开发的项目都要到当地政府的规划部门申报审批。26Theplanningprocess申报流程ApplyPlanningauthorityFormaldecisionEightweeksFeespayableAppealtotheSecretaryofStateGrantedRefusedBeyondthetime27Planningconstraints规划约束

Thereareanumberofplanningconstraintswhichwillaffectredevelopmentproposals.Thesecanbesummarisedasgreenbelts,nationalparks,areasofoutstandingnationalbeauty,areasoflandscapevalue,strategicgaps,urbanopenspace,scheduledancientmonumentsandagriculturalland.28Developmentplans开发规划Structureplans（框架性规划）setthebroadframeworkforplanningatlocallevelandtheyprovidethestrategicpolicyframeworkforplanningandensurethatthedevelopmentcoincideswithnationalpolicy.Localplans（具体规划）setoutdetailedpoliciesandspecificproposalsforthedevelopmentanduseofland.Unitarydevelopmentplans（综合性规划）combinethestructureplanandthelocalplan.29DevelopmentControlThedensity容积率whichisbasedonplotratioFSI楼层系数(floorspaceindex,wherehalfthewidthofadjoiningstreetsisaddedtothesiteindeterminingsiteareafordensitypurposes).Theresidentialdensity居住密度isbasedondwellingsperhectare,housesperhectare

Conservationarea预留面积orconservationofaparticularbuildingortree

30SECTION5:MARKETRESEARCH市场调研Theformulafortheestimate

(Chainmethod)

M=NxQxPwhereMisthetotalmarketpotential,Nisthenumberofbuyersinthespecificmarket,QisthequantitypurchasedbyanaveragebuyerandPisthepriceoftheaverageproduct.Forinstance,iftherearetwohundredhi-technologycompanieswhowishtobuyanewproductionfacilityeveryfiveyearsandtheaveragepriceofthefacilityissay£200,000foranaveragefloorspaceof500squaremetres,thenthetotalmarketpotentialisapproximately£40,000,000overafiveyearperiod.31Researchintoanewshoppingcentredevelopment(3steps)新建购物中心项目的市场调研步骤Firstly,backgroundanalysis背景分析Secondly,marketanalysis市场分析Thirdly,anestimationofthesizeoftheproject建设状况预测32CHAPTER3:THERESIDUALVALUATIONANDGROUNDRENTS余值法与地租

Section1.Theresidualvaluation余值法 Section2.Calculationofthedevelopmentprofit开发利润的计算 Section3.Calculationofgroundrents 地租的计算 Section4.Partnershipschemesandequitysharing 合伙计划 33SECTION1:THERESIDUALVALUATION

余值法SimplifiedResidualCalculation

Casestudy(p36)

ThecostsinaresidualvaluationwhichhavetobedeductedfromtheGrossDevelopmentValueinclude余值法中，需要从总开发价值中扣减的成本包括: Buildingcostsandfees建筑成本和费用. Feesonlettingandadvertising租赁费和广告费. Interestoncosts利息. Contingencies不可预见费. Purchasecostsofland土地购置费(notthelandvalueasthisistheresidual).Purchasecostswouldincludefeesonpurchaseandcompensationfortenantstoobtainvacantpossession.34Figure3.1: Scurveofbuildingcosts建设成本曲线35Developmentperiod:p39)

figure开发周期图<TotalDevelopmentPeriod> Planning Building VoidInvestment Period Contract Period soldor refinanced0>6>15> 18monthsInterestCharges:>LandPurchase18months

>> 1/2Buildingcost9monthsTotalcost

2/3Feesandfees3months >Advertising,contingency,andagentsfees3months36DevelopersProfit:p40)formula开发成本的转化公式ThisisapercentagebasedontheGrossDevelopmentValueortotalcost.Say20%totalcostorsay17%GrossDevelopmentValue.Thesetwofiguresareinter-related,ie: GDV-TotalCost(TC)=Profit, ifProfit=0.2TC,thenTC=P/0.2 GDV-P/0.2=P,GDV=P+P/0.2=0.2P+P=1.2P 0.2 0.2

thusP=GDV/6=16.5%GDVCASESTUDY:DEVELOPMENTVALUATION:p41-44)37SECTION3:CALCULATIONOFTHEDEVELOPMENTPROFIT

开发利润计算(1) Capitalprofitoncompletion(profitmethod)Expectedcapitalvalue £9,826,947Expectedtotalcosts: Buildingcost,feesandfinanceon total £6,091,824 Landcost 1,550,000 Financeonlandcost@ 15%over1¾years 429,488*

£8,071,312 Residualprofit £1,755,635*Thisiscalculatedbycompoundinterest,ie[£1,550,000x(1+0.15)1.75]-£1,550,000.GDV-(BC+LC)=PFromthecalculation:Profitasapercentageoftotalcost=£1,755,635= 21.8% £8,071,312 Profitasapercentageofcapitalvalue=£1,755,635=17.9% £9,826,947 38Annualprofitifschemeisretainedasaninvestment.年投资利润率的计算Expectedannualincome £687,680paExpectedtotalcosts: Buildingcost,feesandfinanceon total £6,091,824 Landcost 1,550,000 Financeonlandcost@ 15%over1¾years 429,488

£8,071,312 Developmentyield=£687,680=8.52% £8,071,312Thusanyreturngreaterthan7%(687680÷9826947)couldbethedevelopersprofit=1.52%.(1.52%.*100/7=21.8%)So,intheresidualvaluationapproach:

Value-Cost=Profitonacapitalbasisand,

Developmentyield-Investmentyield=Developers'profitonanannualbasis.39AlternativeApproaches余值法和现金流量法

Thetraditionalresidualtechniqueisnotadequatetodealwithamorecomplexdevelopmentsituationwhereexpenditureandincomearebeingincurredandreceivedatdifferenttimesoveralongtimescale传统的余值法无法解决收入和支出在不同期间发生的准确计算问题。.Aresidualvaluationisverysensitivetoslightvariationsinitsdifferentelementssuchasrent,initialyields,constructioncosts,financerateandbuildingperiod传统的余值法敏感性过高。Greateraccuracycanbeachievedbyusingcashflowapproaches;现金流量法是一种更为精确的方法。

1. acashflowmethod,usingperiodbyperiodcashflowsonwhichinterestcanbecharged;现今流量法使用逐期计算的方法解决利息的计算问题。2. adiscountedcashflowmethod,asaboveexceptthattheflowsarediscountedbacktothepresent;折现的现金流量法解决折现问题。3. ADCFapproach,buildinginflationintocostsandgrowthintorents.现金流量法可以把同伙膨胀因素考虑在内。40SensitivityandRisk敏感性（风险）分析要素1 LandCosts土地成本2 AncillaryCostsofAcquisition获取成本3 Pre-BuildingContractPeriod建筑前期间4 ShortTermRateofInterest短期利率5 AreaofBuilding建设面积6 BuildingCosts建筑成本7 ProfessionalFees专业费用8 BuildingandLettingPeriod建设和租赁期9 Agents‘Fees代理费10 AdvertisingCosts广告费11 RentalIncome租金12 InvestorsYield投资回报41Sensitivitytesting敏感性测试

Development Development Onprimesite Oncheapsite (landcosthighinproportion(landcostlowin toothercosts). proportiontoothercosts).

GDV £1,000,000 £1,000,000 TotalCosts(inc.finance) 700,000

900,000LandValue 300,000

100,000Assumethreescenariosfortheaboveappraisals:i) Valueandcostincreaseinthesameproportion.Inthiscaselandvaluewillincreaseinthesameproportion.ii) Valueincreasesby30%,costby10%. PrimeDevelopmentSite Other £1,300,000 £1,300,000

770,000

990,000 LandValue 530,000 310,000 +77% +210%Thus,ifvalueincreasesbymorethancost,itaffectslandvaluemoreifthelandvalueissmallinproportiontothetotalvalueofthedevelopment.iii) Valueincreases10%:Cost20% GDV £1,100,000 £1,100,000 TotalCost 840,000

1,080,000 LandValue 260,000 20,000 -13% -80%42SECTION4:CALCULATIONOFGROUNDRENTS地租的计算Thiscalculationisusefulwheredevelopersorlandownersdonotdisposeofcompleteddevelopmentsbutretainaproportionofincomearisingfromthedevelopment.这种计算比较适合部分出售，部分出租的情况。43ExampleofgroundrentcalculationAssumethecalculationofagroundrentona125yearleasewith5yearrentreviews.EstimatedIncome: £500,000paYield: 7%freehold:foralonglease,say7.5%Financecosts: 15%Estimatedcosts: £5,000,000(allcostsexceptland)Profit: 20%costsCalculation: £ £Income 500,000paActualcost 5,000,000Yield@7.5%,decapitaliseby .075Returnforriskandprofit(20%of7.5%say) .015Totaldevelopmentyield .09Developer'scostsandprofit 450,000paGroundrentavailable 50,000paFuturerentgrowth:Ifthefuturerentisdividedupontheoriginalproportionsagreed,itiscalledaproportionalarrangement,asopposedtoagearedarrangement.Thus:Futuregrowthapportioned50,000patolocalauthority/landowner=groundrent 500,000pa totalincome = 10%Developer'sreturn = 450,000pa 500,000pa = 90%44SECTION5

PARTNERSHIPSCHEMESANDEQUITYSHARING合伙计划Partnershipschemescovermanyeventualitieswherelandowners,developersandfundersdonotdisposeoftheirinterestsbutretainthemandshareintheincomearising.合伙计划是各参与方以即期利益交换员其收益权的方法。Arrangementsmaygiverisetoslicesofincometothedifferentparties.Theseslicesreflectriskandreward根据受益于风险对等的原则设置分配计划。Hereanagreementisreachedofdividingtheincomeattheappraisalstage.Ifmoreincomeisinfactgenerated,thenthisadditionalincomeortopslicecanalsobedividedup,perhapsonadifferentbasis.要达成对预计收益和超额收益进行处置的协议。45ParticipationThereisagrowthintheactualincomeoverthedevelopmentperiodanditisassumedthatthisgrowthisshared50:50. EstimatedIncome: £500,000pa Actualincome(plussay20%) £600,000pa Estimatedcosts: £5,000,000 Actualcosts(plussay10%) £5,500,000Theoriginalgroundrentwas£50,000pabutnowthereisagreementthatanyexcessofreturnoverthepositionsetoutintheestimatedpositionisshared50:50.Calculation: £ £Actualincome 600,000paActualcost 5,500,000Decapitalisebythedevelopmentyield .09

495,000paResidue 105,000palessgroundrent 50,000paExcess 55,000pa £thus: 50%excesstolocalauthority 27,500pa plusoriginalgroundrent 50,000pa Revisedgroundrent 77,500paFuturegrowthapportioned:tolocalauthority 77,500pa 600,000pa =12.9%Sodevelopergets87.1%.

46Advantagesofpartnerships–Developer合伙计划对开发商的好处Landassembly:compulsorypurchasemaybetheonlymeanstocompletethesiteandalocalauthoritymaybeabletoprovidethese.Itwouldcertainlyreducethedevelopmentperiod.便于征地，降低成本，缩短工期。Thelocalauthoritycanassistonplanning,BuildingRegulationsandhighwaymatters.Inpartnershipitcouldalsoprovidegoodpublicity.利于获得好的规划条件3 Ifthelocalauthorityprovidesthesite,therearenositeacquisitioncostsnorfinancechargesonsitetobecarrieduntildevelopment.节省了购地款及其利息4 Thelocalauthoritycouldapplyforgrantstosubsidisedevelopmentcosts:政府对开发进行补贴 - Landgrantstoimprovesoil/groundconditions - Developmentgrantstohelpsubsidiseschemesthatdon'tquitework.47Advantagesofpartnerships-LocalAuthority开发计划对政府的好处LocalAuthoritycanencouragedevelopmentandinitiateschemes.Itcanprovide“pumppriming”moniesorsubsidyorland.政府可以为投入补贴和土地找到好的理由ThelocalauthorityhasmorecontroloverwhatisbeingdevelopediftheLocalAuthorityisactuallyinvolvedinthedevelopment.可以加强政府对开发项目的控制程度48Partnershipscomplementtheskillsofthetwoparties.Thelocalauthoritycanprovidebackuponengineeringmatters,sewers,roads,transport,planningwhereastheprivatepartnerprovidesprojectmanagementandfinancialexpertiseanddevelopmentknowledge.Thedeveloperalsotakestheriskindeveloping.双方实现优势互补，开发商会提供相应的开发、融资及管理技术并承担风险。Allowsdevelopmenttobefundedinthemarket.Privatefundsmaybeattractedtoapartnershipscheme,butnottoalocalauthorityscheme.Thepartnerisoftenchosenforexpertiseinraisingfunds.有利于吸引资金5. Byproportionaterentsharingarrangements,thelocalauthoritycanshareinfuturegrowthinrentsinthescheme政府可以分享今后项目成长带来的好处。.49CHAPTER4:CASHFLOWAPPROACHES现金流量法Section1.Introduction Section2.Thedifferencebetweentheresidualmethodandthecashflowapproach.余值法和现金流量法的区别

Section3.Useofcashflowmethods现金流量法的应用Section4.Cashflowcalculations现金流量法的计算50SECTION1:INTRODUCTIONTheargumentofusingdiscountedcashflows(DCF)approachesagainsttraditionalvaluationsisextensive.Cashflowscanassistinthecalculationofcostsoverthedevelopmentperiod.Thebasisresidualmethodisunalteredbutthecashflowapproachgivesamoredetailedcalculationofthescheme‘stotalcostsandthusthefinancecosts.现今流量法可以更为详细和具体地进行开发期间内的成本计算。51SECTION2:THEDIFFERENCEBETWEENTHERESIDUALANDTHECASHFLOWAPPROACH余值法和现金流量法的区别

Inthecashflowapproach,alldevelopmentcostsaredividedintomonthly(orquarterlyorannual)amounts.Thenetcashflowsarecalculatedandshorttermfinanceallowedforeachperiod.Cashflowsdealmoreaccuratelywiththebuildupoftotalconstructioncostsovertheperiod.现金流量法的计算是建立在巴整个开发周期划分为月或季度，所以无论是短期还是整个开发期内的现金流量都可以准确计算。52ErrorsintheTraditionalResidual传统余值法存在的问题Therearetwoerrorsinthetraditionalresidual:Itisassumedthatthetotalmoneyborrowedwillbearinterestoverhalftheperiodorhalfthemoneyisborrowedoverthetotalperiod.Thisisinaccuratebecause: 以借贷平均值或期间平均值来计算现金流非常不准确，这是因为： a) Itbearsnorelationtoactualincidenceofcostswhichmaydifferfrommonthtomonthovertheperiod; 每一期成本发生可能有很大差异。 b) Interestcompoundsmonthlyorquarterlyovertheperioddependingonthearrangementswiththelender,thesimpleinterestformulaofthetraditionalresidual,orevencompoundingannuallyisanoversimplification.复利法的具体安排需要和资方具体商量，不能简单平均。532. ThebuildupofbuildingcostsasshownintheScurvesuggeststhatcostsareloadedtotheendofthebuildingperiod.Intheexampleonly40%ofthecostsareincurredhalfwaythroughtheperiod.Thismaybebecausegroundandinitialworksmaybecheaper.Thiswilldependoncircumstancesbutinmanycasesthisisafairassumption.Anybuildingwithcomplexserviceprovisionintheformofliftsorairconditioningorwithexpensivefinisheswillexaggeratethistendency.Thetraditionalmethodwillthusallowfortoomuchinterest.根据s曲线，很多项目都是前期基础工程成本较低，后期设备工程成本较高，如果简单平均安排资金，这会加大开发上的资金成本。54Section2.Useofcashflowmethods现金流量法的应用

55Cashflowsareusefulfor现金流量法用于:1. Showingtheeffectofinflationinrentsandbuildingcostsovertime.表现通货膨胀的影响2. Sensitivityanalysis,toexaminetheeffectofchangesontheelementsofcost.用于敏感性分析3. Includingtaxinthecalculation.计算税收因素4. Takingintoaccountaphaseddevelopmentandpartialdisposal.用于分阶段开发和部分处置的情况5. Showingthedebtoutstandingatanypoint.可以显示任何时点上的负债状况。6. Showingthetimeofpeakcashoutlay.显示现金流出的峰值期56Cashflowsareanecessityforcertaindevelopments以下情况比较适用现金流量法:

1. Residentialestateswithphaseddisposal,whereanewphaseofhousesarebeingbuiltandanexistingphaseisbeingsoldofftofundthecostofthenewphase.分期开发的住宅地产2. Complexcentralareashoppingschemes.复杂的购物中心项目3. Industrialestatesorbusinessparkswithaprogramofdisposalofsitesandcompletedbuildings.工业地产项目4. NewTowndevelopmentswithaphasedimplementationofschemes.分期实施的新城镇建设项目57Figure4.1: Cashflowappraisal:alternativeapproaches58Example:(TakenfromMorley(1988a)Valueasiteforshopandofficedevelopment.Outgoings,buildingcostsandfeesbreakdownasfollows,excludingfinance. Year1 £ Year2 £ Quarter 1 100000 Quarter 5 150000 2 120000 6 175000 3 130000 7 175000 4 150000 8 150000

Thebuilderisusuallypaidmonthlysoamonthlycashflowisneededforthis,thedeveloperusesaquarterlycashflowasinterestischargedonaquarterlybasis.

Incomefromschemeis£160,000anditcouldbesoldata7%yieldfor£2,290,000afterbuildingworkiscomplete.Financeis4%perquarter(17%p.a.).Thereturnforriskandprofitis20%capitalvalue. 59TraditionalResidual

£ Income 160000YPperp@7% 14.3 ________GrossDevelopmentValue 2285714lesscosts: Buildingcost+fees 1150000 Finance@17%for1/2costsfor2years 195500 _______ Totalcosts 1345500 Returnforriskandprofit@20%capitalvalue 457143 _________Costsplusprofit 1802643 _________Sitevalueoncompletion 483071P.V.£1in2years@17% 0.730514 _________SiteValuetoday 352890

(includingpurchasecosts)60PeriodbyPeriodCashflow

SeeP77)61NetTerminalValuePeriodNetflow Interestuntil Netoutlay asabove completion@ oncompletion £ 4.00% £ (seebelow)1 ‑100000 1.315932 ‑1315932 ‑120000 1.265319 ‑1518383 ‑130000 1.216653 ‑1581654 ‑150000 1.169859 ‑1754795 ‑150000 1.124864 ‑1687306 ‑175000 1.0816 ‑1892807 ‑175000 1.04 ‑1820008 ‑150000 1 ‑150000 ‑1307085Thisgivesthesameanswerasabove. 62DiscountedCashFlow

Period Netflow P.V.£1@P.V.of asabove 4.00% cashflow £ £1 ‑100000 0.961538 ‑961542 ‑120000 0.924556 ‑1109473 ‑130000 0.888996 ‑1155704 ‑150000 0.854804 ‑1282215 ‑150000 0.821927 ‑1232896 ‑175000 0.790315 ‑1383057 ‑175000 0.759918 ‑1329868 ‑150000 0.73069 ‑109604Totalcost ‑955074‑Profit ‑457143 0.73069 ‑334030+Value 2285714 0.73069 Sitevaluetoday 38104563Themaindifferencesbetweentheapproachescanthusbedistinguished:三种方法的主要区别Periodbyperiod分期法1. Theinterestisassessedquarterlyontheoutstandingamountfromthepreviousquarter.利息是按季度逐期累计的2. Thisisamoreaccuratestatementofcostplusinterest,thetotalcostisdeductedfromtheGrossDevelopmentvaluetogetsitevalue.是一种比较准确的方法3. Youneedtopresentvaluethesitevalue.地价需要折项NetTerminalValue净终值法1. Theinterestperquarterisassessedtotheendoftheproject.利息按照期末值计算2.&3.Asabove.DiscountedCashFlow折现的现金流量法1. Thecostandinterestispresentvaluedfortheperiodinvolved.成本和利息在各期自行折现2. Thevalueandprofitispresentvaluedandthesitevalueworkedout.开发价值和利润都是现值。3. Thesitevalueisalreadypresentvalued.地价已经是现值64SECTION4:CASHFLOWCALCULATIONS现金流量法的计算Exampleofadevelopmentappraisalusingacashflow.SeeTable4-1P84)Table4-2P95)65CHAPTER5:THEORIESOFFINANCE融资理论Section1.Introduction Section2.Financialtheoryandthetheoriesdeveloped融资理论及其发展

Section3.Applicationoftheoryinpractice融资理论的应用

66SECTION1:INTRODUCTIONTherearebasicprinciplesofthefinancialstructure融资结构的原则i) Acompanymustmaintainabalancebetweenequityanddebtcapital.

股权与债权资本的平衡ii) Thereshouldbeabalanceofmaturitydatesofthedebtwiththemajoritybeinglongterm.债务的到期日必须均衡iii)Acompanyshouldmatchshorttermassetswithshorttermliabilitiesandlongtermassetswithlongtermliabilities流动负债和流动资产，长期负债和长期资产必须匹配67iv) Companiesshouldmaintainabalancebetweenfixedinterestmoneyandvariableinterestmoney.

固定利率和变动利率的债务必须平衡v) Debtshouldbestructuredsothatinterestrepaymentsarespreadovertheyearsoastoevenoutthecashflowforthecompanyor,better,tocoincidewithincomereceived.还债的时间最好分散于全年，最好和现金收入期相配合vi) Toavoidforeigncur