碳发展政策和《京都议定书》

CaseStudy1:ModellingOntario’sForestCarbonBudget

KyotoProtocol(1997)Objectives:estimatetheCinlivingbiomass,forestfloor,andsoilforthebaseyear1990;estimateCchangesinthesepoolsbetween1991and2000,andtheeffectsofclimatechangeandforestecosystemdisturbances;developamodel(CBM-TRIPLEX)thatwillpredictfutureOntario’sforestcarbonbudgettotheyear2010.

SpatialunitlevelAgeclasslevelForesttypelevelSABOCTMTSpatialScalesBO:Boreal;CT:CoolTemperate;Mt:Moderatetemperate;SA:SubarticApproach:

CBM-CFS2:CarbonBudgetModelofCanadianForestSectorCBM-CFSFirstnationalscaleforestanalysisDataDriven:ForestInventory(NFBIandCanFI)SoilDataDisturbancesFireInsectsHarvests(Kurz,Apps,Webb,McNamee;1992,KurzandApps,1999)ForestCarbonBudgets

Inputs-Outputs=

ChangesinPools

Fluxes StocksForest

EcosystemForest

EconomicSystemlandfillsbiomasssoil&

peatAtmospherefuels,cementproductsdetritusFocusonChangesinStocksorFluxes?

Withfullsystemanalysis,changesinstocksareequivalenttonetfluxto/fromatmosphereLikeabankaccount:ForestCarbon:SystemDiagramTworeleasepathways:DisturbanceandDecompositionOneuptakepathway:PhotosynthesisHowDoesCBM-CFS2workforOntario?ForestStateatTimet

CarbonstocksForestStateatTimet+1

CarbonstocksRulesofchangeChangesinstocksResult:

Cstocks,fluxforyearBiomassgrowthDisturbanceSoildecompositionHistoricCarbonBudgetsofOntario’sForests(Pengetal.2000;Liuetal.2002)Ontario’’sForestAge-classStructure(1990)SABOCTMTOntario'sForestAge(1920-1990)TrendofCSequestrationinOntario'sForestsPotentialCsequestrationcapability:Increaseof1.1Pg(1,100MtC)byincreasinganaveragedageof10yearsinabout20yearsSolutionsCriteria:harvestedarea<0.8%,fire&insectdisturbedarea<1%(1PgC=1,000MtC=1015gC)Lecture10-11CarbonPolicyDevelopmentandKyotoProtocolI.TheClimateChangeConventionII.TheKyotoProtocolIII.CarbonTradingandMarketGenevaDeclarationBindingTargetswithMaximumFlexibilityKyotoProtocolDifferentiatedTargets,Trading&CDMBuenosAiresPlanScheduleforGuidelinesTheHague&BonnPoliticalAgreementRioTreaty1990by2000BerlinMandateInadequateCommitmentsStrongerScientificEvidence,IncreasesInPublicConcernMarrakechAccordsTradingRules,CDMBoard,RulesforSinks&ComplianceCOP11inMontreal:199219951996199719982000-120012005InternationalClimateProcessCOP1COP2COP3COP4COP6COP7COP11UNFCCCCOP:ConferenceofthePartiesBeyondKyoto

1.WhatistheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)?Signedin1992atthe“EarthSummer””inRiodeJaneiro(Brazil),theUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCCortheConvention)wasthefirstmajorinitiativeforinternationalcooperationintheareaofgreenhousegasmitigationandmanagement..TheUNFCCCenteredintoforcedinMarch1995.Todate,186countrieshaveratifiedtheconvention.I.TheClimateChangeConvention(2005,Montreal)

TheultimateobjectiveoftheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)(inArticle2UnitedNations,1992)is“toachievestabilisationofgreenhousegasconcentrationsintheatmosphereatalevelthatwouldpreventdangerousanthropogenicinterferencewiththeclimatesystem.Suchalevelshouldbeachievedwithinatime-framesufficienttoallowecosystemstoadaptnaturallytoclimatechange,toensurethatfoodproductionisnotthreatenedandtoenableeconomicdevelopmenttoproceedinasustainablemanner”2.Objective

3.Principles“equity”and“commonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilities””Theindustrializedcountrieshavehistoricallycontributedthemosttotheproblemandhavemoreresourcestoaddressit.“Precautionaryprinciple”Althoughmanyuncertaintiesstillsurroundclimatechange,waitingforfullscientificcertaintybeforetakingactionwillalmostcertainlytobetoolatetoavertitsworstimpacts.

4.GroupofcountriesTheconventiondividescountriesintotwomaingroup:AnnexI:atotalof41industrializedcountries,includingtherelativelywealthyindustrializedcountriesthatweremembersofOECD(OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment)in1992,pluscountrieswitheconomicsintransitions(theEITs),includingtheRussianFederation,theBalticStates,andseveralCentralandEasternEuropeanStatesTheOEDCmembersofAnnexI–nottheEITs–arealsolistedintheconvention’’sannexII.Therearecurrently24suchAnnexIIpartiesNon-AnnexICountries(145):AllotherscountriesnotlistedintheConvention’’sAnnexes––mostlythedevelopingcountries–areknownasnon-AnnexIcountries.5.Commitments•AllPartiesmustprepareandregularlyupdatenationalclimatechangemitigationandadaptationprogrammes,includingmeasurestoaddresssourcesofgreenhousegasemissionsandtoprotectandenhancecarbon“sinks”and“reservoirs”•Theymustalsotakeclimatechangeconsiderationsintoaccountintheirotherrelevantsocial,economic,andenvironmentalpolicies,andusesuchmethodsasimpactsassessmentstominimizeanyadverseeconomics,healthorenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatechangemeasures.•AllPartiesmustalsopromotethedevelopment,applicationandtransferofclimate-friendlytechnologiesandpractices,aswellasthesustainablemanagementofcarbonsinks(1)GeneralCommitments:

(2)DifferentiatedCommitments•TheAnnexIPartiesarerequiredtoprovidefinancialresourcestoenabledevelopingcountriestomeettheirobligationsundertheConvention,andhelpthemadapttotheadverseeffectsofclimatechange•TheAnnexIPartiesmust““takeallpracticablesteps”topromotethedevelopmentandtransferofenvironmentally-friendlytechnologiestobothEITsanddevelopingcountries•TheConventiongrantsEITs“acertainofflexibility”inimplementingtheircommitments(e.g.,selectabaselinefortheirspecificcommitmentotherthan1990)•Non-AnnexIareexemptfromtheimmediateemissionreductionmeasures,butmayparticipatedonavoluntarybasis.6.TheInstitutionsConferenceoftheParties(COP):TheCOPisthesupremedecision-makingbodyoftheConvention.ItmeetseveryyeartoreviewtheimplementationoftheConvention,adoptdecisionstofurtherdeveloptheConvention’srulebook,andnegotiatesubstantivenewcommitments.(2)TheConvention’’sTwoSubsidiaryBodies:SubsidiaryBodyforScientificandTechnologicalAdvice(SBSTA)––forprovidingadvicetotheCOPonscientific,technologicalandmethodologicalissuesSubsidiaryBodyforImplementation(SBI)––forhelpingwiththeassessmentandreviewoftheConvention’’simplementationII.TheKyotoProtocol《京都议定书》WhatistheKyotoProtocol?TheKyotoProtocolisanaddendumtotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCCortheConvention)thatwasadoptedinDecember1997.TheKyotoProtocolrepresentsapotentiallybindinginternationaltreatythatstipulatesactionstobetakenbynationstocombatglobalclimatechange.ThemostimportantaspectoftheKyotoProtocolisitslegallybindingcommitmentsfor39developedcountries(AnnexB)toreducetheirGHGemissionbyaverageof5.2%relativeto1990levelsduringthefirstcommitmentperiod(2008-2012).《京都议定书》是一部部限制制世界界各国国二氧氧化碳碳排放放量的的国际法案，，1997年12月由149个国家家和地区区的代代表在在日本本京都都通过，并于于2005年2月16日正式式生效效。《《京都都议定书》规定，所所有发达国家在在2008年到2012年间必须将温室室气体体的排排放量量比1990年削减减5.2%。同时规定，包包括中中国和和印度在在内的的发展中国国家没没有减减少排排放量量的义务，可自自愿制制定削削减排排放量量目标。目前前，已已有141个国家和区域域经济组织批准了议定书。2.CommitmentsCountriesincludedinAnnexBtotheKyotoProtocolandtheiremissiontargetsCountryTarget(1990*-2008/2012)EU-15,Bulgaria,CzechRepublic,Estonia,Latvia,Liechtenstein,Lithuania,Monaco-8%Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia,SwitzerlandUSA**-7%Canada,Hungary,Japan,Poland-6%Croatia-5%NewZealand,RussianFederation,Ukraine0Norway+1%Australia+8%Iceland+10%*Someeconomicsintransitions(EIT)haveabaselineotherthan1990**TheUSAhasindicateditsintentionnottoratifytheKP?KyotoProtocol(1997)TheKyotoProtocol’semissiontargetscoverthe6mainGHG:•Carbondioxide(CO2)•Methane(CH4)•Nitrousoxide(N2O)•Hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs)•Perfluorocarbons(PFCs)•Sulphurhexafluoride(SF6)Firstcommitmentperiod:2008––2012Encourageearlyaction:“demonstrableprogress”by2005“providingevidenceofprogressby1Jan.20063.PoliciesandMeasurement•ToachievetheProtocol’stargets,AnnexIPartieswillneedtoimplementclimatechangepoliciesandmeasuresathome.•TheProtocol’’sgivesalistofpoliciesandmeasuresthatmighthelpmitigateclimatechangeandpromotesustainabledevelopment,including:Enhanceenergyefficiency;ProtectingandenhancingGHGsinks;Promotingsustainableagriculture;Promotingrenewableenergy,carbonsequestrationandotherenvironmentallyfriendlytechnologies;Removingsubsidiesandothermarketimperfectionsforenvironmentally-damagingactivities;Encouragingreformsinrelevantsectorstopromoteemissionreductions;Tackingtransportsectoremission;andControllingmethaneemissionthroughrecoveryanduseinwastemanagement.1997KyotoProtocolcallsfora6%reductioninGHGemissionsfrom1990levels.Whatpoliciestoachievethereduction?-directcontrols-taxes/subsidies-emissionmarkets4.TheKyotoProtocolMechanismsTheProtocolallowsdevelopedcountriestoreachtheirtargetsindifferentwaysthrough“FlexibilityMechanism”.Theseinclude:•JointImplementation(JI)•CleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM)•EmissionTrading(ET)Theseaimtomaximizethecost-effectivenessofclimatechangemitigationbyallowingPartiestopursueopportunitiestocutemissions,orenhancecarbonsinks,morecheaplyabroadthanathome.

JointImplementation(JI)TheJIallowsAnnexIPartiestoimplementprojectsthatreduceemissions,orincreaseremovalbysinks,intheterritoriesofotherAnnexIParties.JIalsoallowsforacquisitionandtransferof“emissionreductionunits””(ERUs)ERUs–generatedbyJIprojectsasdefinedbytheKyotoProtocolcanbeusedbyinvestingAnnexIPartiestohelpmeettheiremissionstargetsTwoproceduresforcarryingoutajointimplementationproject:Thefirstprocedure(trackone):applieswhenthehostPartyfullymeetsalltheeligibilityrequirementsrelatedtotheProtocol’smethodologicalandreportingobligation.Thesecondprocedure(tracktwo):appliesifthethehostPartydoesnotmeetAlleligibilityrequirements.ERUmustbeverifiedunderaproceduresupervisedbythe10-membersArticle6supervisorycommittee.(2)CleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM)TheCDM(establishedbyArticle12oftheKP)allowsAnnexIPartiestoimplementprojectsthatreduceemissionsintheterritoriesofnon-AnnexIParties.TheCDMhastwokeygoals:•ToassistdevelopingcountrieswhohostCDMprojectstoachievesustainabledevelopment;•ToprovidedevelopedcountrieswithflexibilityforachievingtheiremissionReductiontargets,byallowingthemtotakecreditsfromemissionreducingProjectsundertakenindevelopingcountries.TheBenefitsofCDM:TheGHGbenefitsofeachCDMprojectwillbemeasuredaccordingtointernationallyagreedmethodsandwillbequantifiedinstandardsunits-CalledCERs(CertifiedEmissionReductions).TheCERsareexpressedintonsofCO2emissionavoidedTherulebookforCDMsetforthintheMarrakeshAccords(COP7)focusonProjectthatreduceemissions.Rulearebeingdeveloped,however,foradoptionatCOP9,forincludingafforestationandreforestationactivitiesintheCDMforthefirstcommitmentperiod.COP7(2001)5.TheLandUse,Land-UseChangeandForestrySector(LULUCF)––(calledKyotoLands)•TheArticle3.3oftheKPestablishesthatemissionandremovalsFromthefollowingactivitiesintheLULUCFsectorshallbeAccountedforhelpmeetemissionstargets:-Reforestation;AfforestationandDeforestation•TheMarrakeshAccorddesignatefouradditionaleligibleactivitiesintheLULUCFsector,including:ForestmanagementCroplandmanagementGrazinglandmanagement;andRe-vegetation“Afforestation”–isthedirecthuman-inducedconversionoflandthathasnotbeenforestedforaperiodofatleast50yearstoforestedlandtroughplanting,seeding,and/orthehuman-inducedpromotionofnaturalseedsources.“Reforestation”-isthedirecthuman-inducedconversionofnon-forestedlandtoforestedlandthroughplanting,seedingorthehuman-inducedpromotionofnaturalseedsources,onlandthatwasforestedbutt