金融分析组第二届光华管理学院案例大赛

京能清洁能源/r/n是/r/n最大的燃气热电/r/n发/r/n及/r/n领先的风电运营商，具有多元化的/r/n清/r/n大/r/n气/r/n陆自/r/n1970/r/n年代末期，逐/r/n步/r/n开放、发/r/n展经济。/r/n随着工业活动迅速增多、/r/n人们生活/r/n逐步现代化，相应/r/n的环境保护/r/n意识/r/n及/r/n却非/r/n常薄弱，导/r/n致污染/r/n现象渐趋严/r/n重。其中，空气污染是影响面最广，个人或地区/r/n却/r/n为力、只能接受的污染形式。/r/n2014/r/n年/r/n4/r/n月/r/n11/r/n日/r/n，/r/n来/r/n自/r/n市/r/n、/r/n国/r/n家/r/n总/r/n队/r/n的/r/n分/r/n析/r/n显/r/n示/r/n，/r/n京/r/n放影响/r/n最明显/r/n；/r/n工/r/n业污染最突/r/n出；河北燃/r/n煤影响/r/n最严重。在空气/r/n污染物中，PM2.5/r/n38927/r/n88.8%，/r/n远远高/r/n于/r/n的25.4%/r/n和/r/n的59.6%。煤炭消费排放出大量二氧化硫，对大气环境造成很大影响，2012/r/n80.8%。/r/n河北工业高耗能行业工业/r/n总产值所/r/n占/r/n为/r/n51.6%；综合能耗占比达/r/n90.8%。从/r/n能/r/n耗增幅看，2013/r/n年/r/n，/r/n工业高耗能行业综合能耗同比下降/r/n2.1%；河北工业高耗能行/r/n48%。化石能源使用的不断增加，加重了对大气环境的污染。/r/n建/r/n议，一方面，严/r/n格限制高耗/r/n能行业发展，逐步/r/n淘汰、疏/r/n解/r/n高耗能/r/n行业；/r/n图表/r/n /r/n今日/r/n空气质/r/n量/r/n的/r/n10/r/n个城/r/n清/r/n洁/r/n能/r/n源/r/n发/r/n展/r/n政/r/n/r/n2012/r/n10/r/n24/r/n(2012)/r/n大力发展新能源/r/n(1263.41,-4.150,-0.33%)和可再生能源，是推进能源多元清洁发展、培/r/n育/r/n性新兴产业的重/r/n要/r/n举措/r/n也是/r/n护生态环境/r/n应对气候变化/r/n实现可持续发展的迫切需要。/r/n根/r/n据《/r/n中/r/n民/r/n国民经济/r/n和社会/r/n发/r/n展第十/r/n二个五年规/r/n划纲要/r/n》/r/n目/r/n标：/r/n到/r/n2015/r/n年/r/n中国非化石能源占一次能源消/r/n费/r/n达到/r/n11.4%，/r/n单位国内生产总值能源消/r/n耗比/r/n2010/r/n年降低/r/n16%，/r/n单位国内生产总/r/n值/r/n排放比/r/n2010/r/n年降低/r/n17%。到/r/n2020/r/n年/r/n非化石能源占一次能源消/r/n费/r/n将达到/r/n15%左右。/r/n积极有序发展水电和风能/r/n、/r/n能等可再生能源。/r/n国家发改委能/r/n源/r/n在/r/n召开的/r/n第十二届中国国际煤炭大会上表示，/r/n炭在能源消费总量中/r/n的/r/n将降低，而相应的清洁能源/r/n的/r/n将增加。/r/n2014/r/n年/r/n3/r/n月/r/n21/r/n日/r/n/r/n主/r/n持/r/n召/r/n开/r/n节/r/n能/r/n减/r/n排/r/n及/r/n应/r/n对/r/n气/r/n候/r/n变/r/n化/r/n工/r/n作/r/n会/r/n议/r/n，/r/n推/r/n动/r/n《/r/n，/r/n促/r/n进/r/n节/r/n能/r/n减/r/n排/r/n和/r/n低/r/n碳/r/n发/r/n展/r/n；/r/n会/r/n议/r/n原/r/n则/r/n通/r/n过《2014-2015年节/r/n/r/n了我国应对气候变化的行动方案表示，/r/n推广分布式能源，发展智能电网，逐步把煤/r/n炭/r/n降下来。/r/n2013/r/n装/r/n机/r/n16.1GW，比2012/r/n年/r/n同/r/n比/r/n增长23.84%，/r/n国/r/n家/r/n能/r/n源/r/n局/r/n在/r/n年/r/n初/r/n的/r/n工/r/n作/r/n会/r/n议/r/n上/r/n确/r/n立/r/n了/r/n2014/r/n年/r/n的/r/n新/r/n增/r/n装/r/n机/r/n规/r/n模/r/n为/r/n18GW，比2013年增长11.8%。按照“/r/n十/r/n二/r/n五/r/n”/r/n规/r/n划/r/n，到2015/r/n年/r/n我/r/n100GW，/r/n20%左右的需/r/n选取京能清/r/n洁/r/n能源作为/r/n标/r/n的公司进/r/n行/r/n估值/r/nl/r/n/r/n估值/r/n模/r/n型由/r/n于/r/n要求只提交/r/no/r/nd/r/n/r/n文档故在估值部分截图展示。/r/n—在可预见的未来，天然气发电具有稳定的回/r/n报率：燃气发电/r/n在/r/n制定的基准价/r/n—公司燃气发电业务迎来爆发式增长。燃气发/r/n电受/r/n到/r/n市/r/n的大力支持，享有/r/n。/r/n2013~2014/r/n年公司京西项目、高安屯项目和未来科技城项目将先后投产，燃气发电装机增长将拉动利润增长，/r/n同时“走出去”远/r/n期/r/n提供了可持续增长空间。/r/n2012/r/n/r/n市场份额占比/r/n2.4%/r/n。/r/n2012/r/n/r/n年受全行业/r/n限/r/n响，/r/n利用小时数仅为/r/n1,816/r/n/r/n小时。/r/n2013/r/n/r/n年/r/n2000/r/n/r/n小时。/r/n—多元化发展的清洁能/r/n源/r/n。公司坚持“做/r/n大气电、做强风电、做多水电、做/r/n优/r/n给予买入/r/n目/r/n标/r/n价/r/n/r/n4.20/r/n，/r/n较/r/n现/r/n价/r/n有/r/n/r/n17%/r/n的/r/n上/r/n升/r/n空/r/n间/r/n目/r/n标/r/n价/r/n约/r/n相/r/n当/r/n于/r/n/r/n2013-/r/nPE/r/n20.9/r/n、/r/n10.7/r/n、/r/n9.7/r/n/r/n催化剂：国家出台治/r/n理/r/n和有利于清洁能源发展的行业政策/r/n/r/n公司基本情/r/n /r/n/r/n基本资/r/n /r/n/r/n公司发展历/r/n /r/n/r/n公司股权结/r/n /r/n/r/n管理/r/n /r/n/r/n公司历史经营情/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n燃气发电业/r/n /r/n/r/n行业概/r/n /r/n需/r/n /r/n供/r/n /r/n补/r/n /r/n/r/n风电业/r/n /r/n/r/n行业概/r/n /r/n/r/n公司业务情/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n正确/r/n的/r/n选/r/n /r/n2013/r/n年京能旗下的风电项/r/n /r/n出色的项目安排/r/n /r/n风机供应稳/r/n /r/n/r/n公司治/r/n /r/n/r/n多元化融/r/n资/r/n改/r/n善财务结/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n/r/n水电项目快速增/r/n /r/n/r/n燃气发/r/n /r/n/r/n燃气发/r/n /r/n/r/n风/r/n /r/n/r/n联营公/r/n /r/n/r/n水力发/r/n /r/n/r/n其他收入（补贴/r/n与/r/n /r/n补/r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n估/r/n /r/n/r/n损益/r/n /r/n收/r/n /r/n毛/r/n /r/n费/r/n /r/n /r/n财务费/r/n /r/n联营公/r/n /r/n税/r/n /r/nAttribute/r/nto/r/n /r/n/r/n资产负债/r/n /r/n资/r/n /r/n负/r/n /r/nWorking/r/n/r/nCapital/r/n/r/n X/r/n/r/n /r/n/r/n现金流量/r/n /r/n经营性现金/r/n /r/n投资现金/r/n /r/n融资现金/r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n燃气部/r/n /r/n风电部/r/n /r/n水电部/r/n /r/n其他（光伏等/r/n /r/nDCF/r/n/r/n估值结/r/n /r/nP/E/r/n/r/n估/r/n /r/n/r/n图/r/n /r/n基/r/n本/r/n资/r/n京/r/n能清洁/r/n能源电/r/n力 /r/n（/r/n简/r/n称/r/n“/r/n京能/r/n清/r/n洁/r/n能/r/n源/r/n”/r/n或/r/n“/r/n京/r/n能/r/n”/r/n，/r/n代/r/n码/r/n：/r/n0579.HK/r/n，/r/n2011/r/n年/r/n12/r/n月/r/n22/r/n日在港交所上市）/r/n是/r/n最大的燃气电力供货商及/r/n中国/r/n根/r/n据/r/n电力行业/r/n/r/n之统计，按/r/n2008-2012/r/n/r/n年的控股装机容量计算，/r/n京能/r/n是/r/n最大的燃气发；按中国水电报告，截至/r/n2011/r/n/r/n9/r/n/r/n月末，京能控股的风电装机容量/r/n占/r/n风电装机容量的/r/n3.12%/r/n，/r/n第/r/n七大风电运营商。/r/n燃气/r/n发/r/n电/r/n及/r/n供/r/n热：/r/n京能/r/n是/r/n地区最大的燃气/r/n发电及供热运营商。公司当前管理/r/n和/r/n运营着/r/n3/r/n个燃气电厂，/r/n分别/r/n是/r/n宫燃气电厂，/r/n京丰燃气电厂和京桥燃气电厂。/r/n截/r/n2013/r/n/r/n6/r/n/r/n2,028/r/n/r/n兆瓦。/r/n风力/r/n发/r/n电/r/n：/r/n京能/r/n还/r/n领先的风力发电运营商。公司的风电场主要位于中国风力资源较为丰富的内蒙/r/n、/r/n及/r/n等地区，同/r/n时公司还/r/n是/r/n地区唯一的风电运营/r/n2013/r/n/r/n6/r/n/r/n1,600.25/r/n/r/n兆瓦。/r/n水力/r/n发/r/n电/r/n及/r/n其/r/n他/r/n：/r/n京/r/n能/r/n的/r/n中/r/n小/r/n型/r/n水/r/n电/r/n项/r/n目/r/n主/r/n要分/r/n布/r/n西/r/n南/r/n地/r/n区/r/n,/r/n光/r/n伏/r/n发/r/n电/r/n2013/r/n/r/n6/r/n/r/n368.89/r/n/r/n50/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n发/r/n展/r/n历/r/n于/r/n内/r/n完/r/n成首个风/r/n电场建/r/n图表/r/n/r/n /r/n公/r/n司/r/n股/r/n权/r/n结/r/n2012/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n17/r/n/r/n61.50/r/n/r/n45.12/r/n/r/n亿股，流通/r/nH/r/n/r/n16.38/r/n/r/n2013/r/n/r/n6/r/n/r/n30/r/n/r/n日/r/n,/r/n京能清洁能源的股权结构如下图所示/r/n图表/r/n /r/n控股股东/r/n:/r/n能源投资/r/n(/r/n)/r/n(/r/n简称“京/r/n能/r/n”/r/n)/r/n成立于/r/n2004/r/n/r/n年，/r/n是/r/n市人/r/n民/r/n出资设立的国有独资公司/r/n资本/r/n130/r/n/r/n亿元/r/n,/r/n国有资本经营管理/r/n中/r/n心拥有京/r/n能/r/n/r/n100%/r/n股权/r/n作/r/n为/r/n市/r/n电/r/n力能源的投资建设主体/r/n京/r/n能/r/n经营和管/r/n理/r/n市/r/n电力、节能等相关的投资/r/n基金，担负着首都电力、热力等能源/r/n管/r/n理/r/n4/r/n/r/n /r/n图表/r/n /r/n附：/r/n各/r/n位/r/n董/r/n事/r/n的/r/n陆/r/n先生，/r/n54/r/n/r/n岁，董事长，子/r/n2010/r/n/r/n年/r/n1/r/n/r/n月起一直担任本公司非执行董事，/r/n负/r/n责/r/n的业务策略及整体发展/r/n拥有逾/r/n17/r/n/r/n年大型电力公司管理/r/n投资管理、/r/n/r/n/r/n1998/r/n/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2008/r/n/r/n年/r/n12/r/n/r/n月期间，他曾担/r/n任/r/n市/r/n多个职位。/r/n2003/r/n/r/n年/r/n2/r/n/r/n-2008/r/n/r/n年/r/n12/r/n/r/n月期间/r/n他先后担/r/n任/r/n市市政市/r/n容管/r/n理/r/n副/r/n/r/n1998/r/n/r/n10/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2003/r/n/r/n年/r/n2/r/n/r/n月期间，他曾担/r/n任/r/n市崇/r/n文区/r/n副/r/n。/r/n1998 /r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月/r/n- /r/n月他担/r/n任/r/n市公用/r/n局/r/n助理/r/n /r/n 月/r/n-1998/r/n/r/n间，他/r/n在/r/n市液化石/r/n气公司先后担任副经理及经理。/r/n1982/r/n/r/n年/r/n7/r/n/r/n月/r/n-1988/r/n/r/n年/r/n1/r/n/r/n月期间，他加/r/n入/r/n市煤/r/n1978/r/n/r/n9/r/n/r/n-1982/r/n/r/n年/r/n7/r/n/r/n月在首都经贸大学工业经济系修读/r/n企业管理，/r/n获得学/r/n /r/n年/r/n9/r/n/r/n月/r/n-1997/r/n/r/n年/r/n7/r/n/r/n月修读企业管理，现拥/r/n有/r/n/r/n/r/n15/r/n/r/n年电力业生产、建设、业务管理及资本管理经验。郭先生于/r/n2005/r/n/r/n年/r/n1/r/n/r/n京/r/n能/r/n，/r/n担/r/n经理助理。他于/r/n2005/r/n/r/n年/r/n12/r/n/r/n月晋升为副总经理，并于/r/n2008/r/n/r/n12/r/n/r/n月擢升为总经理兼董事。此外，从/r/n2007/r/n/r/n年/r/n1/r/n/r/n月起，他一直担/r/n任/r/n京能国/r/n。在/r/n2003/r/n/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2005/r/n/r/n年/r/n12/r/n/r/n月期间，/r/n他担任/r/n内/r/n岱海发/r/n电/r/n公司总经理。/r/n2000/r/n/r/n年/r/n9/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2004/r/n/r/n年/r/n12/r/n/r/n月期间，他/r/n在/r/n国际电力开发投资公司工作，先后担任电力投资管理部副经理及经理。/r/n1999/r/n/r/n年/r/n11/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2000/r/n/r/n年/r/n9/r/n月担任沈阳沈河区人/r/n民/r/n区长助理。郭先生于/r/n1990/r/n/r/n年/r/n7/r/n/r/n月取/r/n得/r/n科技大学电力工程系学士学位，并于/r/n1995/r/n/r/n年/r/n3/r/n/r/n月取/r/n得/r/n水利电力大/r/n学/r/n/r/n。/r/n2003-2006/r/n/r/n年期间，他于/r/n 。/r/n2007-2008/r/n/r/n年，他/r/n为/r/n工业大/r/n学管理学院博士后流动/r/n站/r/n学生。/r/n先生，/r/n54/r/n/r/n岁，/r/n非执行董事，/r/n负责公司的/r/n业务策略及整体发展。/r/n拥有逾/r/n6/r/n/r/n年大型电力公司财务、物业及会计管理经验/r/n。/r/n于/r/n2004/r/n/r/n年/r/n11/r/n/r/n月加入京能/r/n，/r/n担任副总经理至今。/r/n2004/r/n/r/n年/r/n9/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2004/r/n/r/n年/r/n11/r/n/r/n月期间，他/r/n在/r/n国际电力开发投资公司担任副总经理。/r/n1996/r/n/r/n年/r/n8/r/n/r/n月/r/n-1998/r/n/r/n年/r/n3/r/n/r/n月期间他曾担任大连金石滩度假区管委会/r/n副/r/n，/r/n1998/r/n/r/n年/r/n3/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2004/r/n/r/n年/r/n9/r/n/r/n月期间担任大连经济技术开发区管理/r/n副/r/n他/r/n于/r/n1978/r/n年/r/n9/r/n/r/n月/r/n-1982/r/n/r/n男/r/n10/r/n/r/n月期间在辽宁财经学院修读财务管理，/r/n ，并于/r/n1986/r/n/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月取得投资经济/r/n学/r/n/r/n。此外，他在东北财经/r/n /r/n孟文涛先生，/r/n41/r/n/r/n岁，公司执行董事兼总经理/r/n。/r/n自/r/n2010/r/n/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月起担任公司/r/n18/r/n年电力业生产、建设及业务管理经验。/r/n2007/r/n/r/n5/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2010/r/n年/r/n7/r/n/r/n月/r/n他担/r/n任/r/n京能热电/r/n董事/r/n总经理/r/n并于/r/n2006/r/n/r/n年/r/n11/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2007/r/n/r/n5/r/n/r/n月期间担/r/n任/r/n北方公司安全生产监督部副部长。/r/n2005/r/n/r/n年/r/n3/r/n/r/n月/r/n-2006/r/n年/r/n11/r/n月期间，他担任/r/n内/r/n岱海发/r/n电/r/n公司副总经理。他在/r/n1992/r/n/r/n年/r/n-2005/r/n/r/n年/r/n3/r/n/r/n月期间，任职/r/n于/r/n发电厂，先后担任营运部运/r/n行班长、值班长、组织/r/n部副部长、检修出/r/n副/r/n、/r/n及副总工程师/r/n，/r/n于/r/n2002/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月取得中华北电力大学电力系统及自动/r/n化/r/n/r/n。/r/n公/r/n司/r/n历/r/n史/r/n经/r/n营/r/n京能清洁能源的各项经营业绩如售电量、营业收入、净利润均保持稳步增长，/r/n2009-2012/r/n/r/n22%/r/n19.88%/r/n，经营/r/n/r/n48.05%/r/n71.77%/r/n。/r/n主营收入和经营利润如下图所示/r/n6/r/n7/r/n/r/n8/r/n/r/n2012-13/r/n/r/n年随着一系列风电和燃气发电项目上线，/r/n公司的收/r/n入实/r/n现/r/n式/r/n增长。/r/n由于京/r/n桥热电/r/n二/r/n期/r/n(838/r/n/r/n兆瓦/r/n)/r/n、/r/n高安屯/r/n(800/r/n/r/n兆瓦/r/n)/r/n、昌/r/n/r/n平未来城/r/n(200/r/n/r/n兆瓦/r/n)/r/n和北海淀/r/n(240/r/n/r/n兆瓦/r/n)/r/n项目投入运营，/r/n2012/r/n/r/n2013/r/n/r/n公司分别有/r/n1,038/r/n/r/n吉瓦和/r/n1,040/r/n/r/n吉瓦新容量投产，燃气发电和供热业务的收入贡献将加速增长。/r/n2010-13/r/n/r/n37.7%/r/n，其中燃气发电和热力供应的年/r/n34.7%/r/n。/r/n公/r/n司/r/n优/r/n势/r/n与/r/n未/r/n来/r/n发/r/n展/r/n京能清洁能/r/n源/r/n首家设有集/r/n中/r/n系统的/r/n风电运营商。通过该系统在一个/r/n中心位置就可以实/r/n时/r/n相关风电场运行的风电机组，经营效率大为提升。/r/n打破传统运营模式，实现了/r/n对/r/n地区/r/n10/r/n/r/n家/r/n风电场的集/r/n中/r/n调度/r/n结合功/r/n率/r/n系/r/n统，实现风场有/r/n功和无功的精/r/n确控制，满足电/r/n网大规模风/r/n场调/r/n减少风场运/r/n行/r/n和运营成本/r/n2011/r/n年，公司的风电集中控制系统获得/r/n中/r/n民/r/n实用新型专利。/r/n未来/r/n《城镇供热系统能效提/r/n升/r/n与示范/r/n项目获得国家科技/r/n“十二/r/n全面提升融资能力，优/r/n化/r/n结构，提/r/n供/r/n保障，防控能力明显增强/r/n进一步完善内控制度，项目建设全/r/n程/r/n，全面实施规范化管理/r/n管理团队，增/r/n强/r/n竞争力。/r/n京能清洁能源具有多元化的清洁能源业务结构/r/n。除了作/r/n为/r/n地区最大的燃气发/r/n电/r/n及供热运营商外，公司/r/n还/r/n领先的风力发/r/n电运营商，另外公司还涉及了中小型/r/n力度，通过不断优化，/r/n布局更加合理。截止/r/n2012/r/n年年底，在已投产发电装机/r/n容/r/n量/r/n中/r/n，/r/n燃/r/n气/r/n、/r/n风/r/n电/r/n、/r/n水/r/n电/r/n和/r/n光/r/n伏/r/n发/r/n电/r/n比/r/n例/r/n为/r/n51.2%、39.2%、9.3%/r/n和/r/n0.3%，/r/n燃/r/n气/r/n发/r/n电集中/r/n在/r/n地区，占据得天独厚的地域优势；风电、水电、光伏项目主要分布在/r/n公司坚持“做大气电、做强风电、做多水电、/r/n做优光电”的清洁能源发/r/n展/r/n，/r/n多/r/n行/r/n业/r/n概/r/nBP/r/n2000/r/n245/r/n2012/r/n1475/r/n16.14%/r/n2011/r/n10.56/r/n与传统的燃煤电厂相/r/n比/r/n,燃气热电厂可频繁/r/n快/r/n速启动发/r/n电/r/n,因而可满足临时电力调/r/n度/r/n需/r/n求/r/n,并可在相对短时间内增加及有效调节发/r/n电/r/n量/r/n,能够灵活应/r/n付 /r/n期的供电以及在/r/n力需求陡增时销/r/n售/r/n电力/r/n与燃煤发电相/r/n比/r/n,燃气发电只会产生较少量的污染/r/n物/r/n,因此是较/r/n清/r/n洁的/r/n化/r/n石/r/n。/r/n天/r/n然气/r/n具/r/n有/r/n发/r/n电效/r/n率高/r/n、机/r/n组/r/n启动/r/n快/r/n、/r/n调/r/n节范/r/n围/r/n大、/r/n运/r/n行/r/n灵/r/n活、适宜在负荷中心附近设厂等特点,适合用做电网调峰、保障电网运行质量。天然气电厂占地面积小,一般为燃煤电厂的10~30%;/r/n3,000元/r/n/千瓦,煤电项目造价4,500元/千瓦,风电项目造价7,500~8,000/r/n由于华北地区冬季供暖需求较大,所以不少电厂采用热电联产的模式，发电机的部分蒸/r/n30%/r/n效率,燃气热电联产的发电效率更高(5/r/n0/r/n%以上),所以燃气热电联产电厂的设备利用率和营运效率更高。而且,与燃煤发电厂相比,燃气联产厂房工程架构较简单,不用预留空间存放废灰,所需土地仅占燃煤发电厂的30%-40%。/r/n燃气发/r/n电受/r/n到/r/n市/r/n的大力支持/r/n。/r/n的燃/r/n气热电厂均设/r/n在/r/n,/r/n市/r/n大力支/r/n持联产发电/r/n厂发展,已颁布/r/n《/r/n市/r/n人/r/n民/r/n转批市发/r/n展/r/n委/r/n关于加快构/r/n建本市安全/r/n高效低碳城/r/n市供热/r/n体系有关意/r/n见/r/n》,具体/r/n未来重/r/n视发展热电/r/n联产发电厂。截至“十一五”/r/n规划期末/r/n,/r/n的燃气/r/n热电联产电厂总装机容量约为/r/n2,000/r/n兆/r/n当前我国正处于工业化中后期和城镇化加速发展的阶段,不少地区污染排放严重超过/r/n环境容量,一些地区生态环境质量甚/r/n至/r/n了几十年。/r/n而且以水泥、/r/n钢铁、/r/n焦化等重/r/n化/r/nPM2.5/r/n治理需/r/n进行经济结/r/n构/r/n升级,并大/r/n力进行/r/n能/r/n源结构调整,因此/r/n清洁能/r/n源需求上升，替/r/n图表/r/n /r/n（Source：兴/r/n证/r/n10/r/n/r/n（Source：国/r/n /r/n图表/r/n /r/n京能清/r/n洁能源/r/n是/r/n最大的燃气/r/n发/r/n,多年/r/n以来/r/n占/r/n总燃气/r/n发电装机容量/r/n/r/n约/r/n/r/n公司的供热覆盖范围/r/n占/r/n燃气联产集中供热的约/r/n74%/r/n公司在/r/n建项目投产/r/n时间较/r/n原计划缩短,，正/r/n在/r/n开展的/r/n前期项目也/r/n将大大加/r/n快/r/n速/r/n度。/r/n2012/r/n兆瓦;东北热电中心-高安屯燃气热电项目于/r/n2011/r/n年获得批准,于/r/n2014/r/n年投入运行,/r/n投产装机容量/r/n845兆瓦;西北热电中心-京西燃气热电项目于2011/r/n期工/r/n作/r/n,投产安排由/r/n2014/r/n年提前到/r/n2013/r/n年,建成后可增加装机容量/r/n1,308兆瓦/r/n2013、2014/r/n3,336、4,421/r/n图表/r/n /r/n我/r/n国/r/n天/r/n然/r/n气/r/n消/r/n费/r/n占/r/n比/r/n已/r/n从/r/n2000/r/n年/r/n的/r/n2.2%/r/n提/r/n升至2012/r/n年/r/n的/r/n5.3%,/r/n未/r/n来/r/n随/r/n着/r/n输/r/n气/r/n管/r/n道/r/n的/r/n增/r/n13/r/n/r/n燃气热/r/n电联产的主/r/n要使用/r/n能源是天然气/r/n,/r/n之地的/r/n地缘优势使/r/n得/r/n在天然气的/r/n供应/r/n煤/r/n制/r/n气/r/n)/r/n、/r/n大/r/n唐/r/n煤/r/n制/r/n气/r/n和/r/n唐/r/n山/r/nLNG,/r/n年/r/n输/r/n气/r/n总/r/n能/r/n力/r/n达/r/n到/r/n600亿/r/n/r/n立/r/n方/r/n米/r/n,/r/n可/r/n以/r/n满/r/n足/r/n市2015/r/n年/r/n当/r/n年/r/n180/r/n亿/r/n立/r/n方/r/n米/r/n的/r/n用/r/n气/r/n需/r/n求/r/n。同时,/r/n为/r/n了/r/n/r/n避/r/n免/r/n采/r/n暖/r/n时/r/n段/r/n用/r/n气/r/n紧/r/n张,/r/n国家还在河北规划了曹甸和华北两个调峰储气库的建设。/r/n/r/n图表/r/n /r/n天然/r/n气/r/n管/r/n 市“十二五”规划/r/n从/r/n市“十二五”/r/n时期天然气规划设施分布图可以看出,国家保/r/n障/r/n天然气/r/n气源/r/n供/r/nIRR/r/n8%。/r/n15/r/n/r/n京/r/n能/r/n所/r/n获/r/n补/r/n贴/r/n主/r/n要/r/n由/r/n市/r/n财/r/n政/r/n提/r/n供/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n市/r/n用/r/n于/r/n节/r/n能/r/n环/r/n保/r/n的/r/n财/r/n政/r/n支/r/n出/r/n同/r/n比/r/n增/r/n长/r/n58.46%，根/r/n《/r/n市/r/n城/r/n市/r/n公/r/n用/r/n企/r/n业/r/n补/r/n贴/r/n使/r/n用/r/n管/r/n理/r/n暂/r/n行/r/n办/r/n法/r/n,/r/n由于电/r/n力及热力均/r/n为城市/r/n公用产品,/r/n因此燃/r/n气/r/n发电企/r/n业可/r/n获/r/n补贴。根/r/n据/r/n市/r/n发改委颁布/r/n《/r/n市发/r/n展和/r/n关/r/n于燃气/r/n电/r/n价补贴/r/n机制有关问/r/n题的函》,规定位/r/n于北京的燃/r/n气热电厂将/r/n持续获/r/n得/r/n市/r/n的补贴,以贴/r/n补国家发改/r/n委制定/r/n的临时结算/r/n价格/r/n与/r/n市/r/n审定且批准的上网电价的差价。/r/n从/r/n燃/r/n气/r/n(/r/n城/r/n市燃气/r/n管道的独家/r/n营/r/n运商)/r/n采购燃/r/n气，生产发电全/r/n部销售/r/n给国家/r/n电/r/n网/r/n。/r/n按/r/n之/r/n前/r/n电/r/n价/r/n政/r/n策/r/n,/r/n公/r/n司/r/n销/r/n售/r/n的/r/n燃/r/n气/r/n上/r/n网/r/n电/r/n价/r/n宫为0.6177元//r/n度/r/n，/r/n京/r/n丰/r/n为/r/n0.686/r/n元/度/r/n其中国家电网支付/r/n0.573/r/n元/度/r/n二者之间的价差/r/n由/r/n市财政提供补贴/r/n2013/r/n0.4/r/n0.2/r/n5/r/n元。增量气门站价格按可替代能源/r/n(/r/n油、液化石油气)价格的/r/n85%确定。/r/n行/r/n业/r/n概/r/n国的风电装机容量实现了飞速发展，/r/n2005-10/r/n/r/n26.8%/r/n。/r/n2010/r/n/r/n年，/r/n我国取/r/n代/r/n成为风电装机容量最大的国家，达到/r/n42.3/r/n/r/n吉瓦。/r/n投资/r/n预计五年期间总投资额将达到/r/n5,000/r/n/r/n亿/r/n电网制约的问题将逐步得到解决。而且，/r/n在/r/n《关于制定“十二五”规划/r/n的建议》/r/n中/r/n，/r/n将加强电网建设力度，发/r/n展/r/n基于先进/r/n技术的电网体系。/r/n鉴于京能之前与国家电网公司和/r/n内/r/n电/r/n力/r/n在国内发电项目/r/n和/r/n电力市场发展计划上都有过合作，/r/n公司项目在输配电问题上应该没有什么风险。/r/n公司旗下的八个风电项目分别接入国家电网公司和/r/n内/r/n电力集/r/n66/r/n/r/n千伏、/r/n110/r/n/r/n220/r/n/r/n千伏输配电网络。/r/n图表/r/n /r/n/r/n上网电价/r/n由/r/n依据招标确定/r/n的/r/n指导价而定。/r/n2009/r/n/r/n年发改委发布文件，进一步/r/n较高的上网电价。同区的所有陆上风能发电项目须采/r/n用/r/n标准的基准上网电价/r/n(/r/n包含/r/n)/r/n0.51/r/n/r/n元/r/n//r/n0.54/r/n/r/n元/r/n//r/n0.58/r/n/r/n元/r/n//r/n0.61/r/n/r/n元/r/n//r/n千瓦时。/r/n图表/r/n/r/n /r/n1,000/r/n/r/n1.5/r/n亿千瓦，位/r/n列/r/n第一。/r/n随着该地区需求的上/r/n升以及电网结构的优化，/r/n西部电网计划将输电能力由/r/n64/r/n/r/n亿千瓦时提升至/r/n170/r/n/r/n亿千/r/n瓦时。/r/n内/r/n电/r/n网/r/n建/r/n设/r/n计/r/n划/r/n如/r/n下/r/n图/r/n所/r/n示/r/n：/r/n图表/r/n/r/n /r/n内/r/n风电需/r/n31%/r/n2010/r/n/r/n年我国新增风电装机容量和风机/r/n16.5/r/n/r/n18.9/r/n/r/n吉瓦。由于风机采购成本占到风电场建设总成本的/r/n4000/r/n/r/n//r/n千瓦的风机价格将有利于新项目/r/n的/r/n收益率达到/r/n20%/r/n，/r/n超过了目前主要/r/n15-17%/r/n的水平。近年来风机价格走势如下图所示：/r/n19/r/n/r/n公/r/n司/r/n业/r/n务/r/n情/r/n京能清洁能/r/n源/r/n领先的风力发电运营商。据/r/n2010/r/n/r/n年中国水电报告，公司风电控股装机容/r/n量/r/n位列第八。/r/n公司的风电场主要位于中国风力资源较为丰富的内蒙、/r/n及/r/n等地区，同时公司还/r/n是/r/n地区唯一的风电运营商。截至/r/n2013/r/n/r/n年/r/n6/r/n/r/n月/r/n30/r/n/r/n日/r/n1,600.25/r/n/r/n266/r/n/r/n2011/r/n/r/n2,474/r/n/r/n图表/r/n /r/n图表/r/n /r/n图表/r/n /r/n/r/n目中，已经拿到核准计划的装机容量已达/r/n1,100MW/r/n，项目多分布在内蒙/r/n、/r/n和陕西/r/n图表/r/n/r/n /r/n京/r/n能/r/n公/r/n司/r/n在/r/n风/r/n电/r/n行/r/n业/r/n的/r/n优/r/n势/r/n正确/r/n的/r/n选/r/n京能旗下的大多/r/n数风电场位于/r/n内/r/n(84%)/r/n，/r/n其次分别/r/n是/r/n(11%)/r/n和辽宁/r/n(5%)/r/n。公/r/n司计/r/n上述地区内。到/r/n2013/r/n年，/r/n内/r/n的风电场将/r/n占到公司总装机容量的/r/n62%/r/n，其次分别是/r/n(10%)/r/n、/r/n(9%)/r/n、/r/n(9%)/r/n、河北/r/n(6%)/r/n、/r/n山西/r/n(3%)/r/n和辽宁/r/n(1%)/r/n。/r/n2013/r/n图表/r/n/r/n /r/n/r/n、/r/n、/r/n、/r/n民/r/n相关批准/r/n(/r/n目前公/r/n司的一级/r/n项目合/r/n计容量为/r/n99/r/n/r/n吉瓦/r/n)/r/n。耳机/r/n项目特指/r/n已经与地/r/n方/r/n签订了项目协议、风电资源评估已初步完成的项目，合计容量为/r/n1,643.5/r/n/r/n兆瓦。/r/n三级项目则指那些已经与相关地/r/n方/r/n签订谅解备忘录的项目，/r/n总容量为/r/n1,697/r/n兆瓦/r/n公司的项目分布于我国的东北和西北地区/r/n包括/r/n 和辽宁/r/n、/r/n、/r/n、/r/n图表/r/n /r/n斯兰风电和/r/nNordex/r/n/r/n公司。/r/n图表/r/n /r/n多/r/n元/r/n化/r/n融/r/n资/r/n改/r/n善/r/n财/r/n务/r/n结/r/n构/r/n构/r/n-/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n图表/r/n/r/n /r/n

/r/n联/r/n营/r/n公/r/n司/r/n业/r/n绩/r/n大/r/n幅/r/n提/r/n京/r/n能/r/n清/r/n洁/r/n能/r/n源/r/n参/r/n股/r/n了/r/n3/r/n家/r/n联/r/n营/r/n公/r/n司/r/n，/r/n分/r/n别/r/n是/r/n全/r/n州/r/n水/r/n电/r/n、/r/n天/r/n银/r/n地/r/n热/r/n和/r/n京/r/n能/r/n国/r/n际能源。/r/n图表/r/n /r/n由/r/n于/r/n煤/r/n炭/r/n价/r/n格/r/n持/r/n续/r/n下/r/n降/r/n，/r/n今/r/n年/r/n煤/r/n炭/r/n发/r/n电/r/n企/r/n业/r/n的/r/n经/r/n营/r/n效/r/n益/r/n均/r/n大/r/n幅/r/n提/r/n升/r/n。/r/n据/r/n/r/n7/r/n/r/n月/r/n/r/n30/r/n/r/n日/r/n京/r/n能/r/n热/r/n电/r/n披/r/n露/r/n的/r/n2013/r/n年/r/n中/r/n期/r/n业/r/n绩/r/n，/r/n其/r/n净/r/n利/r/n润/r/n达/r/n到/r/n11.89/r/n亿/r/n，/r/n同/r/n比/r/n增/r/n长/r/n达/r/n60%/r/n。/r/n2013/r/n上/r/n半/r/n年/r/n1.44/r/n水/r/n电/r/n项/r/n目/r/n快/r/n速/r/n增/r/n京能清洁能源的水电项目通过自建和收购两种方式快速发展。2012年通过自建那邦水/r/n2012年年底，公司水电装机容量已达368.89MW。2013年/r/n公/r/n司投/r/n产/r/n黑水三联/r/n水电二期(装机/r/n容量/r/n34MW/r/n图表/r/n /r/n

/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/nColor/r/n红/r/n色/r/n数/r/n燃/r/n气/r/n发/r/n二/r/n五/r/n规/r/n划/r/n2015/r/n年/r/n将/r/n建/r/n好/r/n并/r/n投/r/n入/r/n使/r/n用/r/n4/r/n个/r/n电/r/n厂共/r/n780MW，/r/n随/r/n后/r/n根/r/n据/r/n地/r/n区/r/n每/r/n年/r/n20%/r/n的/r/n电/r/n厂需求增长/r/n率/r/n保守估计平均每年可有/r/n100MW/r/n的设备新投入使用。/r/n30/r/n/r/n 估计每个电厂每年使用时间也将/r/n50/r/n表格/r/n /r/n通过前三年平/r/n均/r/n估计出燃气电厂消耗天然气的比率，最终得出了/r/n0.19/r/n立方米/r/n/kWh/r/n表格/r/n /r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n补贴（/r/n30%无法被覆盖/r/n表格/r/n /r/n燃/r/n气/r/n发/r/n表格/r/n /r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n表格/r/n /r/n表格/r/n /r/n风/r/n，/r/n从国家对风电行业的支持和风力资源的利用前景来看/r/n/r/n京能公司的装机容量/r/n将/r/n以稳定速率增长。而/r/n从/r/nIPO/r/n招股书中看出，/r/n京能打算对/r/n内/r/n和/r/n的风/r/n能/r/n继续投资，/r/n而/r/n和辽宁 /r/n 的装机容量增加/r/n49/r/n/r/n单位，其他都用于投资潜能最大的内/r/n，/r/n。/r/n表格/r/n /r/n 会每年增加/r/n90/r/n/r/n小时，/r/n10/r/n/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n2%/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n联/r/n营/r/n公/r/n由于联营公司业务相似，按照京能清洁能源收入增长率/r/n来/r/n联营公司业绩/r/n表格/r/n /r/n水/r/n力/r/n发/r/n保守估计，水电业务预计每年新增容量约为/r/n70MW/r/n，水电机组的年利用小时数维持在/r/n3,500/r/n小时左右。/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n其/r/n他/r/n收/r/n入（/r/n补/r/n贴/r/n与/r/n/r/n（CDM/r/n(CERs)，京能同时还参与/r/n了/r/n议定书之外的自愿减排机制(VERs)。/r/n公司共/r/n有/r/n40/r/n个项目有资格申/r/n请/r/nCDM/r/n,28/r/n个项目已获得国家发改委的批准,整体来看/r/n，将/r/n有/r/n的清洁能源项目投产。京能已与12/r/n个来自欧洲的独立/r/n第/r/n买家签订了减排额/r/n度/r/n协议。/r/nCDM/r/n同时也就带来/r/n了/r/n的/r/nCER/r/n和/r/nVER/r/n交易机会，/r/n因此在这/r/n里/r/n估计/r/nCDM/r/n收入/r/n在/r/n期限/r/n15/r/n/r/nCDM/r/n/r/n损/r/n益/r/n表格/r/n /r/n表格/r/n /r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n表格/r/n19/r/n/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n21/r/n/r/n22/r/n/r/nAttribute/r/nto/r/n23/r/nAttribute/r/nto/r/n资/r/n产/r/n负/r/n表格/r/n/r/n /r/n25/